Evidence based STI Policy formulation, strategy and planning. The SA case and why indicators matter

Transcription

1 Evidence based STI Policy formulation, strategy and planning. The SA case and why indicators matter Michael Kahn Centre for Research Evaluation of Science and Technology, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa Roundtable Meeting for the preparation of the Science, Technology, Innovation and Global Assessment Programme UNESCO, Paris. 4-5 July, 2011

2 1. A new Great Game? 1885 Kongokonferenz; Scramble for Africa Decolonization; consolidation of states; elite formation 1989 The multi-polar world+ ICT revolution Bio- & Nanotechnology revolutions accelerate Doha stutters; global insecurity; inequalities grow, MDGs beckon Population decline in the North; mobility for survival Financial imbalances, innovation & greed: 2008 meltdown with nationalization of banks, insurers, auto makers Rise of liberation technology: Facebook, texting and Twitter

3 Scramble for Africa II (USA) (EU) RUSSIA CHINA & INDIA BRAZI L SOUTH AFRICA HR

4 Whence development? Some prescriptions reach sell-by date; others revived Washington vs BeST Consensus (Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo); World Bank now agnostic with respect to the role of the State (Jan 2009); Deregulation no longer the panacea Higher education investment for all countries (already from 2000) The challenge of Dutch Disease the resource curse Lessons from the Asian Tigers Prior investment in people Learning by doing; develop absorptive capacity through reverse engineering & technology transfer; export at all costs WTO rules, OK?

5 2. A primer on the political economy of South Africa Developmental state I ( ) Apartheid Constructed Crisis; minerals-energy complex + inward industrialization. Lean state ( ) adopted under pressure Cultural- Political norms Associations Regulatory, ethical & legal, environmental, IPR EDUCATION TRAINING SKILLS DEV UNIVERSITIES+ ACADEMIES? NGOs WORLD SYSTEM PUBLIC SECTOR GOVT. DEPTS INSTITUTES & MUSEUMS EUROPEANS ONLY BUSINESS S.O.E.s S&T SERVICES INFORMAL SECTOR STANDARDS UTILITIES ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL SYSTEM Social innovation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

6 Democracy - Inclusion Constructed Crisis Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) then Growth, Employment and Redistribution strategy Establishment of social safety net Wide usage of development indicators 2009 Developmental state II. Agric 3% (9); Manufacturing 32% (26); Services 65% (65) High HIV, Gini, high unemployment; low skills World class financial system with large carry trade. Domestic TNCs trade in Africa, Middle and Near East- Sun, Multichoice, Grindrod, Shoprite, ABSA, SASOL, AAC, Old Mutual, Nandos, MTN, ESKOM, Mediclinic, Tongaat-Hulett, Makro, SABMiller etc. Open economy with symptoms of Dutch Disease

7 3. National innovation system & policy

8 The sentinel indicator Information divide End of military missions?

9 R&D Strategy (2002) Korea, Australia, Malaysia as exemplars Foresight study guides new missions for ICTs and Biotech Technology for Poverty Reduction GERD; GDP 1% by 2008; HRD - SA Research Chairs; Centres of Excellence; IP law; Tax Incentive; Institutionalized measurement Ethical clearance; GMO and clinical trials registers Biodiversity and IKS legislation International networking; NEPAD, ASTII; AU S&T Infrastructure Center for High-speed Computing Science Councils representative staff demographics; contract income; increased science outputs OECD Review of Innovation Policy (2007) Technology Innovation Agency (2008)

10 Western/bio-environmental science Understand path dependence

11 Full-time equivalent researchers, 1992 and 2007 Headcount of researchers: (Korea was at this level around 1982) Systems grow iff they are nurtured

12 Ten Year Innovation Plan (2008) Space Science remote monitoring & telemetry Energy, hydrogen economy & new materials -catalysis Farmer to Pharma-biotech, plant & animal science Global dynamics climate change remote sensing Human and Social Dynamics poverty of technology or poverty of politics?

13 4. Innovation and the Developmental State The New Growth Path low growth; underemployment; binding constraints; go green Industrial Policy Action Plan choosing winners? What prioritization process? How did the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor get its funding? What demands for innovation, by who and with what expected benefit? How to measure policy impact, intended and unintended? New Public Management and Delivery Agreements which targets shall apply? Gateway role affirmed as central to New Growth Path

14 South Korea: GERD; GERD/GDP; USPTO 800 x 600 x 400 x x x x x x x x x x

15 Some lessons Innovation policy subordinate to macroeconomic and industrial policy; Bounded Rationality and Silos Yesterday s innovation system lives in the present Why is there a high-technology innovation barrier? Department of Science and Technology has mandate to coordinate S&T budgets, little authority High level compacts needed to steer a system

16 Indicators matter; they underpin dialogue; require careful interpretation and knowledge of metadata Do we measure what matters, or what is measurable? In emerging economies could STI be understood as sourcing, trialing, interacting? Spectrum of IP inc. design, plant varieties and impacts For South Africa dynamism of the services sector Triple bottom line reporting Footprint across Africa, but vulnerable to takeover (Barclays, Vodafone, Walmart, SINOCO, CNOOC, Vale. Beware of BRICs bearing gifts!

17 Roaring Lions small innovation systems; high growth Country GERD GERD/G DP Graduates KEI rank Publications Main PPP USD m (2007) Sciences; Engineers (2009) Field Angola ; Health Chad Health Congo (D.R.) Health Ethiopia ; Agric/Heal th Mozambique ; Health Zimbabwe Health Rwanda Health Zambia Health Co-publication or me academic hunter, you data gatherer Sources: UNESCO World Science Report, 2011; Web of Science; UIS;

18 African Science, Technology & Innovation Indicators initiative New Partnership for Africa s Development (NEPAD) Organization of African Unity African Union African Ministers Council on S&T (AMCOST) Africa s S&T Consolidated Plan of Action Various flagship projects: Biotechnology; Mathematical Sciences strengthening evidencebased STI policy ASTII seed funding from SIDA; Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia Process to build capacity for STI measurement and indicator production

19 Part of the process of deepening the understanding and measurement of STI in developing countries. Innovation system approach: to broaden the discussion of identified structural impediments that tend to constrain and inhibit African economic growth and human development improving institutions, so that they become broadly participative, transparent and universal, is imperative in redressing the failures of the past and ending the inevitable continuities with path dependencies and trajectories. Training workshops in Pretoria; Frascati and Oslo Manual guidelines; surveys instruments adapted from South Africa. Mix of questionnaire and interview techniques. 13 countries contributed to African Innovation Outlook

20 GERD by source of funds and sector of performance; and R&D personnel by level of formal qualification and occupation, gender, headcount and full-time equivalent, as well as researchers by gender and field of science. Malawi, Uganda and South Africa showed GERD: GDP above 1%. With the exception of South Africa and Malawi, the public sector is main performer and funder of R&D Basic research: Nigeria (36.1%); South Africa (20.6%) and Tanzania (19.2%). Good progress on developing the conversation; now include industry Challenge will be to institutionalize capacity and ensure dialogue with policy makers

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