Economics and the Social Sciences in the Grand Challenges

Transcription

1 Economics and the Social Sciences in the Grand Challenges John Birge, Chicago Cindy Barnhart, MIT CB/JB INFORMS, Oct

2 Themes Progress on the Grand Challenges requires supporting economic, political, legal, and social structure Ignoring such issues can reduce or eliminate gains from technology (e.g., nuclear energy) OR has the right perspective to consider economic and social sciences with technology OR tools can help in guiding policy, informing R&D and commercialization CB/JB INFORMS, Oct

3 OR Perspective View of systems as a whole Consideration of interactions and network effects Appreciation of social sciences and behavioral issues Focus on measurement and analysis CB/JB INFORMS, Oct

4 Challenges - Sustainability Make solar energy economical Impact on prices for other fuels; Geo-political implications of lower relative price advantages Relative advantages for solar production areas; Political implications for transmission rights Provide energy from fusion Negative perceptions of nuclear energy; Political reactions to fusion power Chances for increased rich-poor-country inequality; Increased pressure on developing world for non-carbon growth without supporting infrastructure Increased reliance on fewer critical resources may create greater opportunities for terrorist threats CB/JB INFORMS, Oct

5 Sustainability -2 Develop carbon sequestration methods Safety issues and potential for exploitation Implications for growth in developing world Potential for blocking development of non-carbon sources Manage the nitrogen cycle Potential in overall energy efficiency-spillover economic effects Changes in value of arable land (potentially making the rich countries richer?) CB/JB INFORMS, Oct

6 Sustainability-3 Provide access to clean water Potential impact on regional development Potential for concentrated political control of water resources Increased opportunities for corruption in weak legal systems Restore and improve urban infrastructure Potential for increased urban concentrations/increased in equality Greater incentives for political controls to limit urbanization Widening gap between urban and agrarian economies CB/JB INFORMS, Oct

7 Prevent nuclear terror Security Impact on privacy and social acceptance Impact on development of non-carbon energy sources overall Secure cyberspace Impact on privacy/society as in combating terrorism in general; Potential for concentrated power and who monitors the monitor questions Questions of overall cyber-property rights and implications CB/JB INFORMS, Oct

8 Health Care Advance health informatics and quality/cost improvement Opportunities for greater inequality Increased stress on health systems with equal access Effects of increased ability to exclude poor risks from care Social reactions to loss of privacy Engineer better medicines Effects similar to health informatics Impact of increased manufacturing cost relative to traditional medicines Potential social reactions to genetically engineered material Reverse-engineer the brain Potential for exploitation Impact of reduced value from intellectual activity CB/JB INFORMS, Oct

9 Joy of Living Enhance virtual reality Opportunities for enabling remote activity and removing geographical advantages Impact of development leading to imbalances in development Advance personalized learning Similar potential to virtual reality Changes to learning institutions and geographic value Engineer the tools of scientific discovery Possible concentration of capabilities in tool makers (again, potential for inequality increases) Impact of lower levels of understanding in individuals and potential for abuse CB/JB INFORMS, Oct

10 General Steps for OR Models of system interactions Assessment of the objectives, choices, and overall behavior of agents within systems Development of models to assess agents motivations from observations Simulation of multi-agent systems optimizing in equilibrium, transience, and turbulence CB/JB INFORMS, Oct