IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR: UNDERSTANDING CAPITAL FLOWS TO EMERGING MARKETS. May 12-13, 2016 New York, NY IN COOPERATION WITH

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1 GLOBAL SEMINAR: UNDERSTANDING CAPITAL FLOWS TO EMERGING MARKETS May 12-13, 2016 New York, NY IN COOPERATION WITH

2 COURSE DESCRIPTION GLOBAL SEMINAR: Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets Capital flows play a central role in today s interconnected global economy, particularly at a time of volatile financial markets and concerns about the economic outlook in EMs. The has long been a thought leader on EM capital flows issues and a provider of cutting edge capital flows data. We are pleased to offer this first-ever capital flows seminar to interested participants from both the private and the public sector. This two day program will provide participants with a broad understanding of EM capital flows issues, focusing on the conceptual frameworks and practical tools needed for capital flows analysis. Class size will be kept small and the content will be tailored to fit participants interests. An impressive group of expert industry practitioners, including senior experts, will share their insights with participants. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US IN NEW YORK TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Understand the balance of payments accounting framework for capital flows and linkages to other macroeconomic accounts Learn about the drivers of various types of capital flows and tools to track and forecast capital flows Become familiar with different capital flows datasets and how they can be used to analyze issues such as country risk and vulnerability to external shocks Learn about policy options in the face of capital flows surges and stops Master tools to use capital flows analysis for investment and portfolio allocation decisions This seminar will be eligible for 11 CPD/CE credits through the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), the CFA Institute, the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), the International Compliance Association (ICA) and the Chartered Banker. 2 Global Seminar: Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

3 THURSDAY MAY 12 8:30 am 9:00 am REGISTRATION 9:00 am 9:45 am SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program Key trends and issues in recent EM capital flows 9:45 am 10:30 am SESSION 2: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS FRAMEWORK FOR CAPITAL FLOWS Concepts and definitions of various types of capital flows Balance of payments accounting Linkages to other macroeconomic accounts Charles Collyns, Managing Director & Chief Economist, Ulrik Bie, Chief Economist, Global Macroeconomic Analysis, Senior Economist, Global Macroeconomic Analysis, 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:00 pm SESSION 3: DRIVERS AND FORECASTING OF CAPITAL FLOWS TO EMERGING MARKETS Framework for analyzing capital flows push and pull drivers Forecasting quarterly and annual capital flows Ulrik Bie, 12:00 pm 1:00 pm LUNCH 1:00 pm 1:45 pm SESSION 4: CAPITAL FLOWS DATA SOURCES Strengths and weakness of different capital flows datasets, including IMF BOPS data, capital flows databases, EPFR fund flows, and IMF CPIS/CDIS data, among others 1:45 pm 2:15 pm SESSION 5: TOOLS FOR TRACKING CAPITAL FLOWS Tracking EM portfolio flows Tracking reserve intervention and net capital flows Country case study tracking China s capital flows 2:15 pm 2:45 pm COFFEE BREAK 3 2:45 pm 4:45 pm SESSION 6: WORKSHOP CONSTRUCTING CAPITAL FLOWS ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS Note: Laptop needed for this group exercise Building internally consistent estimates of capital flows Constructing capital flows forecasts consistent with macroeconomic outlook 4:45 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 7: TAKEAWAYS FROM WORKSHOP Discussion of forecast results and Q&A Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets, Emre Tiftik, Team exercise under guidance of counselors Emre Tiftik, 5:00 pm 7:00 pm RECEPTION Global Seminar: Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets 3

4 FRIDAY MAY 13 9:00 am 10:00 am SESSION 8: CAPITAL FLOWS AND COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS Overview of country risk analysis External financing vulnerabilities and pecking order of capital flows Analyzing the BoP with respect to country and sovereign risk Nehad Chowdury, Director, Global Country Risk Management, Citigroup 10:00 am 11:00 am SESSION 9: POLICY RESPONSES TO CAPITAL FLOWS Policy options in the face of capital flows surges and sudden stops, including monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies Charles Collyns, Guillermo Mondino, Managing Director, Head of Emerging Markets Economics and Strategy, Citi 11:00 am 11:15 am COFFEE BREAK 11:15 am 12:15 pm SESSION 10: INVESTOR PERSPECTIVES ON CAPITAL FLOWS Using fund flows and portfolio flows data for tactical asset allocation Generating investment ideas based on flows analysis Discussion of merits of different high-frequency flows datasets Trang Nguyen, Senior EM Strategist, J.P. Morgan Michael Trounce, Senior Strategist, Flows Research, Standard Chartered Plc 12:15 pm 1:15 pm LUNCH 1:15 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 11: WORKSHOP CASE STUDY Participants will break into small groups to work on a major EM economy of their choice Participants will analyze the country s capital flows with respect to implications for country risk, policy challenges, and investment opportunities Team exercise under guidance of counselors 3:00 pm 3:30 pm SESSION 12: CLOSING DISCUSSION AND WRAP-UP Participants give brief presentations on group findings Program wrap up and concluding remarks 4 Global Seminar: Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

5 SPEAKER PROFILES Charles Collyns, Managing Director & Chief Economist, Institute of International Finance Charles Collyns is Managing Director and Chief Economist at the. Prior to joining the, Mr. Collyns served as Assistant Secretary for International Finance at U.S. Treasury, a post he held February 2010 to July In that capacity, he was responsible for leading the Treasury s work on international monetary policy, international financial institutions, coordination with the G7/G8 and G20, and regional and bilateral economic issues, including participation in the U.S. China economic dialogues. Previously, Mr. Collyns served as Deputy Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he headed the team responsible for the World Economic Outlook report. Prior to joining the Research Department in 2006, he held a number of other positions at the IMF, including holding responsibility for its work on Japan from 1997 to 2001, the United States from 2001 to 2003, and Brazil from 2004 to Collyns has published on a broad range of international macro-economic issues. In addition to the World Economic Outlook reports, he co-authored Post Bubble Blues How Japan Responded to Asset Price Collapse, Managing Financial Crises Recent Experience and Lessons for Latin America, Stabilization and Reform in Latin America A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Experience since the early 1990s. and India Economic Reform and Growth. Mr. Collyns received a Doctorate in Economics from Oxford University after obtaining first class honors as an undergraduate at Cambridge University. Senior Economist, Global Macroeconomic Analysis Department, Institute of International Finance Robin Koepke serves as an expert on international capital flows in the s Global Macroeconomic Analysis department. Since joining the Institute in 2010, he has authored and co-authored numerous publications on issues related to international capital flows. Mr. Koepke also developed the s framework for real-time tracking of EM portfolio flows and is the lead author of the s EM Portfolio Flows Tracker, a monthly measure of portfolio flows that is widely used in the financial industry. In addition, he serves as the s external point of contact for the frequent member and media inquiries about the s analysis on capital flows to emerging markets. He holds a Master s degree in International Economics from The American University in Washington, DC and is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Wurzburg, Germany. Ulrik Harald Bie, Chief Economist, Global Macroeconomic Analysis Department, Institute of International Finance Bie most recently served as Chief Economist at Nykredit, Copenhagen, the largest private mortgage bank and bond issuer in the Nordic region. Bie previously served as Chief Analyst, Head of Strategy and Macroeconomic Research at Nykredit, following his position as Senior Economist for Research, both located in Copenhagen. Bie was previously the Finance Attaché at The Royal Danish Embassy in Washington, D.C. and an Economist at Danmarks Nationalbank in Copenhagen. Bie received both his Master of Science and Bachelor of Arts degrees in Economics from the University of Copenhagen. Global Seminar: Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets 5

6 SPEAKER PROFILES Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets Department, Institute of International Finance Mehmet Emre Tiftik is Deputy Director in the Capital Markets and Emerging Markets Policy Department. His major fields of study are international economics and finance with particular interests in G7 and Emerging Europe. Prior to joining the in 2011, Mr. Tiftik served as an instructor and teaching assistant at the University of Maryland, College Park (UMD). From 2005 to 2008, he worked as a research assistant at the Middle East Technical University (METU) in Turkey. Prior to that, he served as a junior research analyst in the Ministry of Labour and Social Security of Turkey where he participated in the evaluation of grant projects under the Delegation of European Union to Turkey. Mr. Tiftik has received numerous academic honors and awards including the Middle East Economic Association s Ibn Khaldun Prize (2009), University of Maryland s Graduate Fellowship (2008), and the Turkish Economic Association s Research Price (2006). Mr. Tiftik completed his Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics and a Master s degree in Financial Mathematics at METU. He also holds two Master s degrees in Economics- one from METU with a focus on applied econometrics and the other from UMD with a concentration in quantitative macroeconomic modelling. Nehad Chowdhury, Director, Global Country Risk Management, Citigroup Nehad Chowdhury is a Director in Citigroup s Global Country Risk Management team, with overall responsibility for the team s global macroeconomic and country risk analyses. The team s views and analyses are used for internal risk management, capital allocation, and strategic planning decisions of the firm. Prior to joining Citi in 2013, he was an economist at the International Monetary Fund ( ). Nehad began his career at Goldman Sachs ( ) where he held multiple roles and was responsible for managing capital markets transactions for sovereign clients and advising them on a broad range of public finance topics. In his last role at Goldman, he was the sovereign strategist on the emerging market bond trading desk in London. Nehad has an MPA in International Development from Harvard University and has traveled to over 75 countries. Guillermo Mondino, Managing Director and Head of Emerging Markets Economics and Strategy, Citi Guillermo Mondino is Managing Director and Head of Emerging Markets Economics and Strategy at Citi having joined the firm in December Previously, he was the Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at Barclays Capital where he also held the role of Head of Latin America Research. From , he was the head of Emerging Markets research at Lehman Brothers. Before joining the sell-side, he was the president of MacroVision Consulting and had been the director of IERAL de Fundación Mediterránea, a consulting firm and a think-tank in Argentina. In 2001, he held several roles in the Ministry of the Economy in Argentina, having had responsibilities as Secretary of Finance, of Economic Policy and as Chief of the Cabinet of Advisors. Guillermo has also had ample experience advising a number of countries in the Emerging World (Ecuador, Ukraine, Indonesia, among others) and as a consultant for the IMF, World Bank and the Interamerican Development Bank. He also held academic positions at Yale University, the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, and Di Tella and San Andres universities in Argentina. 6 Global Seminar: Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

7 SPEAKER PROFILES Trang Nguyen, Senior EM Strategist, J.P. Morgan Trang is a strategist in the EM sovereign debt and EM cross-product strategy groups at J.P. Morgan, based in New York. With expertise in EM market technicals, Trang is a specialist in flows, positioning and market structure, has produced in-depth research on topics exploring high-frequency fund flow trends, retail versus institutional behavior, risks related to the build-up of foreign buying of EM local currency debt, and the relationship between positioning and fund performance. Trang runs the monthly J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Client Survey, a market-leading product capturing positioning and sentiment by 200 investors managing US$1 trillion in a broad spectrum of EM fixed income and currency assets. The survey has taken place since 2001, and provides more comprehensive insight into technical dynamics, helping investors in their asset allocation decisions. Trang also produces trade-oriented research in the EM sovereign credit space, with trade ideas covering over 60 countries and 130 issuers globally across EM hard currency sovereign debt. Trang is a CFA charterholder. Michael Trounce, Senior Strategist, Flows Research, Standard Chartered Plc Based in London, Mike leads analysis of flows and positioning across emerging markets. He helps clients monetize investor behavior by delivering trade-oriented analyses of EM portfolio flows and analyses of capital flows to and asset allocations of emerging market mutual funds. He joined Standard Chartered in Mike was previously head of local markets strategy for Emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa at J.P. Morgan, which he joined in 2007, and has 16 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MSc in finance from York University and a BSc in industrial economics from Warwick University, both in the UK. Global Seminar: Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets 7

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