IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA. November 12-14, 2018 Dubai, UAE IN COOPERATION

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1 IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA November 12-14, 2018 Dubai, UAE IN COOPERATION

2 COURSE DESCRIPTION IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting with a Focus on MENA This three day program is a condensed and shorter version of the following three courses offered by the IMF: (1) Financial Programming and Policies; (2) Macroeconomic Diagnostics; and (3) Macroeconomic Forecasting. Class size will be kept small and the content is tailored to fit participants interests. The program will explore core macroeconomic ideas that provide consistent forecasting techniques for the real, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors, and how they relate to each other. For each sector, the course presents the accounting framework, interpretations of variables and indicators from these accounts, and basic analysis of the accounts. The program also includes a series of workshops in which participants, under the guidance of counselors, are divided into groups, to implement the diagnostic and analytical tools presented in the lectures and to develop consistent forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators of a country. An impressive group of expert industry practitioners, including former IMF staff members, and chief economists with more than 25 years of experience will share their insights with participants. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Review the principal features of the different accounts used in macroeconomic analysis, and the interrelations among these accounts. Create consistent two-year economic projections. Estimate and analyze potential output, identify the expenditure composition of growth, assess fiscal policy, and public and external debt sustainability. Identify and appraise the economic vulnerabilities in MENA economies. Examine different techniques on how to forecast oil prices Analyze economic and financial developments of a case study country using a hands-on, Excel-based framework. * Participants should plan to bring their own laptops. TARGET AUDIENCE: Economic Research Country/Sovereign Risk Country strategists Analysts, economists, and senior economists Fixed income analysts REGISTER AT IIF.COM/ EVENTS Registration is open up to one week prior to program start date or until capacity is reached. Capacity limitations may force some programs to close registration early. PROGRAM FACTS Date: November 12-14, 2018 Location: Dubai, the UAE Pogram Fee: - Group member rate $950 (2 or more from same firm) - Member rate $ Non-member firm $2900 For inquiries regarding group registration rates of two or more attendees, please contact us at meetings@iif.com 2 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH FOCUS ON MENA

3 Monday, November 12 8:30 am 9:00 am REGISTRATION AND BREAKFAST 9:00 am 9:10 am SESSION 1: WELCOME SESSION Opening remarks 9:10 am 10:00 am SESSION 2: HOW DO WE GO ABOUT DOING PROJECTIONS Introduction to the program Projecting growth Examples of inconsistent forecasts Schematic representation of inter-sectoral linkages 10:00 am 11:00 am SESSION 3: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Links between balance of payments and the fiscal sector Links between balance of payments and monetary survey Links between monetary the fiscal sector and monetary sector Data consistency Wolfgang Engel IIF Chief Regional Representative in Dubai 11:30 am 11:30 am COFFEE BREAK 11:30 am 1:00 pm SESSION 4: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS Global Financial Markets what the emerging risks to consider are and how monetary tightening will impact the MENA region How the global trade war and developments in key EMs will impact the MENA region Robin Brooks, Managing Director and Chief Economist, IIF, 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 5: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING CPI Inflation drivers New Keynesian Phillips curve Forecasting Inflation Using VAR Technique Forecasting the GDP Deflator Robin Brooks, Managing Director and Chief Economist, IIF, 3:00 pm 3.30 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:30 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 6: PROJECTING GDP & GDP DEFLATOR Estimating potential output Growth accounting decomposition GDP deflator MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA 3

4 Tuesday, November 13 8:30 am 9:00 am BREAKFAST 9:00 am 9:45 am SESSION 7: GUILDLEINES FOR FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACCOUNT Analytical presentation of the BOP Forecasting exports, imports, and other current account components 9:45 am 10:30 am SESSION 8: FORECASTING CAPITAL FLOWS Foreign direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Robin Brooks, Managing Director and Chief Economist, IIF, 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:10 am 12:00 pm SESSION 9: FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts Forecasting revenues Forecasting expenditures Vahram Stepanian Senior Economist, IMF 12:00 pm 1:00pm SESSION 10: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Key external indicators Assessing current account and fiscal sustainability Debt-to-GDP dynamic How to stabilize debt 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:30 pm SESSION 11: FORECASTING KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF GCC ECONOMIES Oil and Non-oil GDP Growth Inflation Using VAR Technique Exports, Imports, Oil Revenue, Non-oil revenue, & Gov t Spending Country Examples Garbis Iradian Vahram Stephanian 3:30 pm 4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 4:00 pm 4:45 pm SESSION 12: THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF MENA ECONOMIES Reassessing MENA s growth dynamics Public policy challenges rebalancing and reform How oil prices would impact MENA economies Chief Economist, 4:45 pm 5:30 pm SESSION 13: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES Prepare forecast for 2018 and 2019 Assumptions: commodity prices, global growth, etc. *Participants are expected to bring their own laptops equipped with Excel (EViews desirable but not crucial) to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries 4 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA

5 Wednesday, November 14 8:30 am 9:00 am BREAKFAST 9:00 am 10:30 am SESSION 14: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS Forecasting real GDP growth Forecasting CPI and GDP deflator Forecasting the main components of the BOP Vahram Stepanian Boban Markovic, 10:30am 11:00am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 1:00 pm SESSION 15: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS Forecasting the main components of the current account Forecasting the main components of the financial account Forecasting the monetary survey Vahram Stepanian Boban Markovic, 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 16: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONTINUED) Forecasting government revenue Forecasting government spending Forecasting the monetary survey Vahram Stepanian Garbis Iradian Boban Markovic 3:00 pm 3:30 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:30 pm 4:30 pm SESSION 17: ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS Participants 4:30 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 18: WRAP UP What have we learned over the three days main takeaways What are the areas where more focus is needed going forward? Robin Brooks, Managing Director and IIF, MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA 5

6 SPEAKERS PROFILE Wolfgang Engel, General Manager and Chief Representative, Middle East and Africa Regional Office, IIF Wolfgang Engel leads the IIF efforts to establish and strengthen relationships with members in the Middle East & Africa, to identify and address their most important issues from their perspective, and to increase engagement with the official sector. Before joining IIF, Wolfgang Engel was a member of the Management Committee at Société Générale in charge of the Financial Institutions Group Germany and Austria. In that role he was primarily responsible for advising institutional clients on regulatory issues and debt and equity markets solutions. From 1998 to 2005, Wolfgang Engel held a number of positions at BNP Paribas, including Head of the Debt Capital Markets Europe in London, Head of Institutional Clients Coverage Group for Germany and Austria and Head of Corporate Banking Division in Germany, among other roles. Wolfgang Engel has also served in positions at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Frankfurt, the Asian Development Bank in Manila and JPMorgan in Frankfurt and New York. Dr. Robin Brooks, Managing Director and IIF Robin Brooks is Managing Director and Chief Economist at the IIF. In his role, Mr. Brooks oversees the IIF s macroeconomic analysis and serves as part of the IIF s senior management team. Previously, Mr. Brooks was the Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs based in NY, where he was responsible for the firm s foreign exchange forecasts and publishing international macro research. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs, Mr. Brooks was the FX strategist at Brevan Howard. Before joining the private sector, Mr. Brooks spent eight years as an economist at the International Monetary Fund, where he worked on the IMF s fair value models for FX, published academic research and participated in missions to IMF program countries. Mr. Brooks earned his PhD in Economics from Yale University in He earned a BSc in Monetary Economics from the London School of Economics in Dr. MENA, IIF, Former IMF Advisor Garbis Iradian has more than 28 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of MENA economies. He is currently the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Department at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF in 2008, he worked for 18 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held the positions of senior economist and senior advisor to an Executive Director where he monitored and assessed macroeconomic and financial developments of several Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies. Prior to joining the IMF he served as international economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and taught macroeconomics and econometrics at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Freiburg University, Germany. He has published several articles and working papers on MENA and Central Asian Economies. Dr. Vahram Stepanyan, Senior Economist, IMF, Middle East and Central Asia Department Dr. Vahram Stepanyan has more than 15 years of experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting covering economies in Europe, Middle East and Central Asia. He is currently the Lead Desk on Oman team in the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the IMF and for the last two years has focused his analytical work on cross-cutting issues in the GCC economies. Prior to joining the IMF in 2008, he worked for the World Bank and the Central Bank of Armenia. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Armenia State University of Economics. He has published several articles and papers on MENA economies. 6 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA

7 SPEAKER PROFILES Dr. Saade Chami, Group NBK, Former IMF Assistant Director Saade Chami is Group Chief Economist at the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK). Prior to joining NBK, in early 2018, he was the Secretary General of the Capital Market Authority in Lebanon. Dr. Chami worked 26 years ( ) at the IMF. His last position at the IMF was Assistant Director in the Middle East and Central Asia Department and his most recent assignment was Coordinator of the IMF Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC). Before that, he was Division Chief in the Middle East and Central Asia Department where he led missions to several MENA countries. Dr. Chami worked also in the Strategy and Policy Department of the IMF and participated in many missions to several countries in the Middle East, Europe, Africa and Asia. Before joining the IMF, Dr. Chami was Director of the Graduate School of Business and Management at the American University of Beirut (AUB) where he taught Economics and Finance for six years and served as advisor to the Central Bank of Lebanon and a board member of the Deposit Insurance Corporation. Boban Markovic, Senior Analyst, MENA, IIF Boban Markovic is a senior analyst at IIF, covering the Middle East region with a special focus on GCC countries. Prior to joining IIF he worked at Delos Asset Management, Cayman Islands based hedge fund, and served as the representative to the Board of Trustees at American University in Bulgaria. He is a founder of Zivid Ventures, CFA candidate, an occasional contributor to Fair Observer. Markovic holds Master in International Relations and Economics from the Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies. He received undergraduate degree as a Presidential Medalist, Magna Cum Laude, from American University in Bulgaria with a double major in Political Science and Business Administration. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA 7

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