IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR: ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES. December 5-7, 2016 New York, NY IN COOPERATION WITH

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1 IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR: ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES December 5-7, 2016 New York, NY IN COOPERATION WITH

2 COURSE DESCRIPTION IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR Advanced Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting in Emerging Economies This three day seminar is similar to a condensed version of the two-week Financial Programming and Policies course offered by the IMF. Class size will be kept small and the content is tailored to fit participants interests. This seminar presents practical tools useful in country analysis to help economists better assess a country s macroeconomic conditions and prepare consistent forecasts for the real, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors. The program also includes a series of workshops in which participants are divided into groups, under the guidance of counselors, to implement the diagnostic and analytical tools presented in the lectures and to develop consistent forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators in emerging economies. An impressive group of expert industry practitioners, including IIF experts and former IMF staff members will share their insights with participants. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Review the principal features of the different accounts used in macroeconomic analysis, and the interrelations among these accounts Receive insights from leading experts on the formulation of internally consistent forecasts and financial programs Participate in a country case study with fellow participants to analyze economic challenges and develop forecasts under the guidance of experienced counselors Network with global peers PLEASE JOIN US IN NEW YORK TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY. IDEAL FOR PROFESSIONALS WHO: Provide Advice on Macroeconomic and Financial Policies Work in Economic Research at Financial Institutions, Insurance Companies and Hedge Funds Work in Country/Sovereign Risk or Investment Management REGISTER AT IIF.COM/TRAINING Registration is open up to one week prior to program start date or until capacity is reached. Capacity limitations may force some programs to close registration early. PROGRAM FACTS Date: December 5-7, 2016 Location: New York, USA Venue: Moody s Investors Service CPD/CE: 18 hours Program Fee: -Member Firm $2,400 (USD) -Non-Member Firm $4,000 (USD) **Use the code WINTER25 when registering for a 25% discount. This training course will be eligible for CPD/CE credits through the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), the Chartered Banker Institute, the CFA Institute, the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), and the International Compliance Association (ICA). 2 ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

3 MONDAY DEC 5 8:30 am 9:00 am REGISTRATION 9:00 am 9:10 am SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program 9:10 am 9:30 am SESSION 2: FORECASTING APPROACHES Advanced economies Emerging economies More words of wisdom Leading economic indicators 9.30 am 10:30 am SESSION 3: KEY ACCOUNTS AND LINKAGES Key accounts Schematic representation of intersectoral linkages Example of inconsistency of real GDP forecast Raymond W. McDaniel, Jr., President and Chief Executive Officer, Moody s Corporation Charles Collyns, Managing Director & IIF 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:30 pm SESSION 4: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Links between balance of payments and the fiscal sector Links between balance of payments and monetary survey Links between monetary the fiscal sector and monetary sector Data consistency 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 2:30 pm SESSION 5: OVERVIEW OF FORECASTING METHODS General considerations about forecasting The autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model The error correction model Vector auto-regressions: estimating and forecasting Examples Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets, IIF 3 2:30 pm 3:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:00 pm 4:00 pm SESSION 6: PROJECTING GDP AND COMPONENTS Estimating potential output -Hodrick-Prescott filter of real GDP -Production function Growth accounting decomposition 4:00 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 7: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING CPI AND THE GDP DEFLATOR Inflation drivers New Keynesian Phillips curve Yield curves and monetary policy Taylor rule Forecasting CPI inflation Forecasting the GDP deflator Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets, IIF ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 3

4 TUESDAY DEC 6 9:00 am 10:00 am SESSION 8: FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts Forecasting revenues Forecasting expenditures Country examples Melhem Melhem, Former IMF Senior Advisor 10:00 am 11:00 am SESSION 9: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Key external indicators Assessing fiscal sustainability Debt-to-GDP dynamics How to stabilize debt Country examples (former IMF staff 11:00 am 11:30 am COFFEE BREAK 11:30 am 12:30 pm SESSION 10: FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACCOUNT Analytical presentation of the balance of payments Balance of payment accounting framework Linkages to other macroeconomic accounts Bejoy Das Gupta, Asia/Pacific, IIF 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 2:30 pm SESSION 11: CAPITAL FLOW IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Foreign direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment (including foreign borrowing) Bejoy Das Gupta, Asia/Pacific, IIF 2:30 pm 3:15 pm SESSION 12: FORECASTING THE MONETARY SURVEY Analytical presentation of the monetary survey Forecasting net foreign assets, domestic credit, & other items Forecasting broad money Country examples 3:15 pm 3:45 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:45 pm 5:15 pm SESSION 13: GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK US, Eurozone, Brexit US interest rates Why the Chinese economy is slowing What will policymakers do next Monetary policy challenges Charles Collyns, Managing Director & IIF 4 ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

5 WEDNESDAY DEC 7 9:00 am 9:30 am SESSION 14: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES Prepare forecasts for 2016 and 2017 by sectors Assumptions: commodity prices, global growth Participants are expected to bring their own laptops equipped with Excel and preferably EViews 9 (MS Windows compatible) to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries 9:30 am 11:00 am SESSION 15: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS Forecast of real GDP growth Estimating potential growth Forecast of CPI and GDP deflator Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets, IIF 11:00 am 11:30 am COFFEE BREAK 11:30 am 1:00 pm SESSION 16: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONT) Forecast of government revenue Forecast of government spending Melhem Melhem, Former IMF Senior Advisor 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:30 pm SESSION 17: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONT) Forecast of the main components of the balance of payments Forecasting the monetary survey Bejoy Das Gupta, Asia/Pacific, IIF 3:30 pm 4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 4:00 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 18: WRAP UP What have we learned over the three days main takeaways What are the areas where more focus is needed going forward Charles Collyns, Managing Director & IIF ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 5

6 SPEAKER PROFILES Raymond W. McDaniel, Jr., President and Chief Executive Officer, Moody s Corporation Raymond W. McDaniel, Jr. is President and Chief Executive Officer of Moody s Corporation. In this role, Mr. McDaniel is responsible for all activities of the corporation and its two operating divisions: Moody s Investors Service, the credit rating agency, and Moody s Analytics. Mr. McDaniel has held a variety of positions since joining the firm in He began as a Senior Analyst in the Asset Securitization group in New York. Over the next 14 years, he held a number of positions of increasing responsibility including Managing Director for Moody s Europe, Managing Director for International and Senior Managing Director for Global Ratings & Research. Mr. McDaniel was named President of Moody s Investors Service in November He was promoted to Executive Vice President of the corporation in 2003 and was elected to its Board of Directors the same year. In 2004, Mr. McDaniel was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Moody s Corporation and named President of the corporation in October In April 2005, he was appointed Chief Executive Officer. Mr. McDaniel also served as Chairman of the Board from 2005 to During his tenure, Mr. McDaniel has implemented important enhancements to Moody s ratings practices. Some of these initiatives include growing the core ratings and research business globally, implementing international expansion and new products, and improving professional practices in the ratings business through credit policy and rating committee enhancements and improvements to credit research capabilities. Mr. McDaniel holds a J.D. from Emory University School of Law and a B.A. in political science from Colgate University. He was admitted to the Bar of the State of New York in 1984 and is a member of the Board of Directors of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Charles Collyns, Managing Director and Institute of International Finance Dr. Charles Collyns is Managing Director and Chief Economist at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF, Dr. Collyns served as Assistant Secretary for International Finance at U.S. Treasury, a post he held February 2010 to July In that capacity, he was responsible for leading the Treasury s work on international monetary policy, international financial institutions, coordination with the G7/G8 and G20, and regional and bilateral economic issues, including participation in the U.S. China economic dialogues. Previously, he served as Deputy Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he headed the team responsible for the World Economic Outlook report. Prior to joining the Research Department in 2006, he held a number of other positions at the IMF, including holding responsibility for its work on Japan from 1997 to 2001, the United States from 2001 to 2003, and Brazil from 2004 to Collyns has published on a broad range of international macro-economic issues. In addition to the World Economic Outlook reports, he co-authored Post Bubble Blues How Japan Responded to Asset Price Collapse, Managing Financial Crises Recent Experience and Lessons for Latin America, Stabilization and Reform in Latin America A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Experience since the early 1990s. and India Economic Reform and Growth. He received a Doctorate in Economics from Oxford University after obtaining first class honors as an undergraduate at Cambridge University. 6 ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

7 SPEAKER PROFILES Middle East and North Africa, Institute of International Finance Dr. Garbis Iradian has more than 25 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of MENA economies. He is currently the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Department at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF in 2008, he worked for 18 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held the positions of senior economist and senior advisor to an Executive Director where he monitored and assessed macroeconomic and financial developments of several Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies. Prior to joining the IMF he served as international economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and taught macroeconomics and econometrics at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Freiburg University, Germany after obtaining a masters degree from the American University of Beirut. Iradian has published several articles and working papers on sources of growth, income inequality, and economic challenges of the MENA economies. Melhem Melhem, Former Deutsche Securities & Former Senior Advisor to the Saudi Arabian Executive Director, IMF Dr. Melhem Melhem has more than 25 years experience in analyzing macroeconomic and financial policies with particular emphasis on Saudi Arabia and the GCC. He is currently the Chief Economist for Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia. Prior to joining Deutsche Securities, his work experience included a 27 year career at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he held various positions including Senior Advisor the Saudi Arabian Executive Director. Dr. Melhem also taught international economics and finance at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from New York University (NYU). He has published several articles. Bejoy Das Gupta, Chief Economist for Asia/Pacific, Institute of International Finance Dr. Bejoy Das Gupta has more than 25 years experience in the analysis of macroeconomic policy, capital flows and financial sectors; and communicating research to financial institutions. He is Chief Economist for Asia/Pacific at the IIF, where he manages the economic analysis for the region. Dr. Das Gupta also serves as Adjunct Professor of the Maxwell School of Syracuse University s Washington Program. He is also a Member of the Board of the Mandiri Institute, which was established in May 2014 by Bank Mandiri, Indonesia s largest bank, to promote research on financial inclusion and entrepreneurship to shape the public policy agenda. Prior to joining the IIF in 1993, Dr. Das Gupta served as Economist for the International Lead and Zinc Study Group in London, and in investment banking with ANZ Bank. After graduating from the London School of Economics, he received M.Phil. and D.Phil. in Economics from Christ Church, Oxford. Emre Tiftik, Deputy Director, Global Capital Markets, Institute of International Finance Mehmet Emre Tiftik is Deputy Director in the Capital Markets and Emerging Markets Policy Department. His major fields of study are international economics and finance with particular interests in G7 and Emerging Europe. Prior to joining the IIF in 2011, Mr. Tiftik served as an instructor and teaching assistant at the University of Maryland, College Park (UMD). From 2005 to 2008, he worked as a research assistant at the Middle East Technical University (METU) in Turkey. Prior to that, he served as a junior research analyst in the Ministry of Labour and Social Security of Turkey where he participated in the evaluation of grant projects under the Delegation of European Union to Turkey. Mr. Tiftik completed his Bachelor of Science degree in Mathematics and a Master s degree in Financial Mathematics at METU. He also holds two Master s degrees in Economics- one from METU with a focus on applied econometrics and the other from UMD with a concentration in quantitative macroeconomic modelling. ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 7

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