IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES. November 7-9, 2016 Dubai, UAE

Transcription

1 IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR ADVANCED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES November 7-9, 2016 Dubai, UAE

2 COURSE DESCRIPTION IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR Advanced Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting in MENA Economies This three day program is similar to a condensed version of the two-week Financial Programming and Policies course offered by the IMF. Class size will be kept small and the content is tailored to fit participants interests. This course presents practical tools useful in country analysis to help economists better assess a country s macroeconomic conditions and prepare consistent forecasts for the real, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors. The program also includes a series of workshops in which participants are divided into groups, under the guidance of counselors, to implement the diagnostic and analytical tools presented in the lectures and to develop consistent forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators in MENA economies An impressive group of expert industry practitioners, including former IMF staff members with more than 25 years of experience, will share their insights with participants. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Review the principal features of the different accounts used in macroeconomic analysis, and the interrelations among these accounts Receive insights from leading experts on the formulation of internally consistent forecasts and financial programs Participate in a country case study with fellow participants to analyze economic challenges and develop forecasts under the guidance of an experienced counselor Network with global peers PLEASE JOIN US IN DUBAI TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY. IDEAL FOR PROFESSIONALS WHO: Provide Advice on Macroeconomic and Financial Policies Work in Economic Research at Financial Institutions, Insurance Companies and Hedge Funds Work in Country/Sovereign Risk or Investment Management REGISTER AT IIF.COM/TRAINING Registration is open up to one week prior to program start date or until capacity is reached. Capacity limitations may force some programs to close registration early. PROGRAM FACTS Date: November 7-9, 2016 Location: Dubai, UAE Venue: DIFC Conference Centre CPD/CE: 18 hours Program Fee: - Member Firm $2,400 (USD) - Non-Member Firm $4,000 (USD) This training course will be eligible for CPD/CE credits through the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), the Chartered Banker Institute, the CFA Institute, the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), and the International Compliance Association (ICA). 2 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES

3 MONDAY NOV 7 8:30 am 9:00 am REGISTRATION 9:00 am 9:20 am SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program Wolfgang Engel, General Manager & Chief Representative Middle East and Africa Regional Office, IIF 9:20 am 10:30 am SESSION 2: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Key accounts Schematic representation of intersectoral linkages 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:15 pm SESSION 3: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS (CONTINUED) Links between balance of payments and the fiscal sector Links between balance of payments and monetary survey Links between monetary the fiscal sector and monetary sector Data consistency 12:15 pm 1:15 pm LUNCH 1:15 pm 2:30 pm SESSION 4: OVERVIEW OF FORECASTING METHODS Common trends among macroeconomic time series General considerations about forecasting The autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model Vector auto-regressions: estimating and forecasting Robin Koepke, Global Macroeconomic Analysis, IIF 3 2:30 pm 3.00 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:00 pm 4:00 pm SESSION 5: PROJECTING GDP COMPONENTS New Keynesian Phillips Curve Private consumption Government consumption Private investment Government investment Robin Koepke Senior Economist Global Macroeconomic Analysis, IIF 4:00 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 6: POTENTIAL OUTPUT Estimating potential output and the output gap Deterministic time trend Hodrick-Prescott filter Production function Growth accounting decomposition Leading economic indicators MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES 3

4 TUESDAY NOV 8 9:00 am 9:30 am SESSION 7: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING CPI AND THE GDP DEFLATOR Forecasting CPI inflation Forecasting the GDP deflator 9:30 am 10:45 am SESSION 8: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Analytical presentation of the balance of payments Balance of payment accounting framework Forecasting main components of the current account Forecasting the financial account (FDI, portfolio flows, loans, etc.) Munir Rached, World Bank Advisor Robin Koepke Senior Economist Global Macroeconomic Analysis, IIF 10:45 am 11:15 am COFFEE BREAK 11:15 am 12:15pm SESSION 9: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts Forecasting revenues Forecasting expenditures Munir Rached, World Bank Advisor 12:15 pm 1:00 pm SESSION 10: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING THE MONETARY SURVEY Analytical presentation of the monetary survey Forecasting net foreign assets Forecasting domestic credit Forecasting other items net Forecasting broad money 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 2:45 pm SESSION 11: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Key external indicators Debt-to-GDP dynamics How to stabilize debt 2:45 pm 3:30 pm SESSION 12: MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF MENA ECONOMIES OVERVIEW AND CHALLENGES Monetary and fiscal policies Exchange rate policy and assessment Key external indicators Structural reforms Melhem Melhem, Managing Director Deutsche Securities, Saudi Arabia Melhem Melhem, Managing Director Deutsche Securities, Saudi Arabia 3:30 pm 4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 4:00 pm 5:30 pm SESSION 13: EVALUATING FINANCIAL SECTOR VULNERABILITIES Banking crisis and the real economy Macro-financial linkages Credit risk assessments 4 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES

5 WEDNESDAY NOV 9 9:00 am 10:00 am SESSION 14: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES Prepare forecasts for 2016 and 2017 by sectors Assumptions: commodity prices, global growth Participants are expected to bring their own laptops equipped with Excel and preferably EViews 9 (MS Windows compatible) to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries 10:00 am 10:30 am SESSION 15: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS Forecast of real GDP growth Forecast of CPI and GDP deflator Munir Rached, World Bank Advisor Giyas Gokkent, 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:00 pm SESSION 16: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONTINUED) Forecast of the main components of the current account Giyas Gokkent, 12:00 pm 1:00 pm SESSION 17: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONTINUED) Forecast of the main components of the capital and financial accounts Giyas Gokkent, Robin Koepke Senior Economist GMA, IIF 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 18: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONTINUED) Forecast of government revenue Forecast of government spending Munir Rached, World Bank Advisor Giyas Gokkent, 3:00 pm 3:30 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:30 pm 4:30 pm SESSION 19: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONTINUED) Forecast of the monetary survey 4:30 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 20: WRAP UP What have we learned over the three days main takeaways What are the areas where more focus is needed going forward? MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES 5

6 SPEAKER PROFILES Wolfgang Engel, General Manager & Chief Representative, Middle East and Africa Regional Office, Institute of International Finance Wolfgang Engel leads the IIF efforts to establish and strengthen relationships with members in the Middle East & Africa, to identify and address their most important issues from their perspective, and to increase engagement with the official sector. Before joining IIF, Wolfgang Engel was a member of the Management Committee at Société Générale in charge of the Financial Institutions Group Germany and Austria. In that role he was primarily responsible for advising institutional clients on regulatory issues and debt and equity markets solutions. From 1998 to 2005, Wolfgang Engel held a number of positions at BNP Paribas, including Head of the Debt Capital Markets Europe in London, Head of Institutional Clients Coverage Group for Germany and Austria and Head of Corporate Banking Division in Germany, among other roles. Wolfgang Engel has also served in positions at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in Frankfurt, the Asian Development Bank in Manila and JPMorgan in Frankfurt and New York. Middle East and North Africa Department, Institute of International Finance Dr. Garbis Iradian has more than 25 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of MENA economies. He is currently the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Department at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF in 2008, he worked for 18 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held the positions of senior economist and senior advisor to an Executive Director where he monitored and assessed macroeconomic and financial developments of several Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies. Prior to joining the IMF he served as international economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and taught macroeconomics and econometrics at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Freiburg University, Germany. He has published several articles and working papers on MENA and Central Asian Economies. Robin Koepke, Global Macroeconomic Analysis Department, Institute of International Finance Robin Koepke serves as an expert on international capital flows in the IIF s Global Macroeconomic Analysis department. Since joining the Institute in 2010, he has authored and co-authored numerous publications on issues related to international capital flows. Mr. Koepke also developed the IIF s framework for real-time tracking of EM portfolio flows and is the lead author of the IIF s EM Portfolio Flows Tracker, a monthly measure of portfolio flows that is widely used in the financial industry. In addition, he serves as the IIF s external point of contact for the frequent member and media inquiries about the IIF s analysis on capital flows to emerging markets. He holds a Master s degree in International Economics from The American University in Washington, DC and is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Wurzburg, Germany. 6 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES

7 SPEAKER PROFILES Munir Rached, World Bank Macro-Fiscal and Public Financial Management Advisor, The Ministry of Finance of Lebanon Dr. Munir Rached is currently lecturer in economics at the American University of Beirut (AUB). In addition, he provides consultancy services to international financial institutions (including the Wortld Bank) and private firms in public financial management, policy evaluation, and financial programming. He worked 28 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held positions of senior economist and IMF resident representative in several emerging economies. His career at the IMF focused on evaluation, design and reform of economic policies of IMF member countries, and on capacity building. He trained at the IMF Institute senior government officials on macroeconomic analysis and forecasting techniques. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Arizona and majored in financial policies and econometrics. Melhem Melhem, Managing Director and Deutsche Securities Dr. Melhem Melhem has more than 25 years experience in analyzing macroeconomic and financial policies with particular emphasis on Saudi Arabia and the GCC. He is currently the Chief Economist for Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia. Prior to joining Deutsche Securities, his work experience included a 27 year career at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he held various positions including Senior Advisor the Saudi Arabian Executive Director. Dr. Melhem also taught international economics and finance at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from New York University (NYU). He has published several articles. Giyas Gokkent, Middle East and North Africa Department, Institute of International Finance Dr. Giyas Gökkent s experience spans insurance, academia, asset management and banking. He is currently Senior Economist at the Middle East & Africa Department at the Institute of International Finance. He previously worked as Group Chief Economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi and acted as co-head of Asset Management Group. He has held a number of academic positions in the US, Turkey, and the UAE and served as the acting head of the finance department at Abu Dhabi University. He is a member of the Advisory Board of the Abu Dhabi University College of Business Administration. He authored the annual MENA Asset Management Survey between 2010 and He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Florida International University. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MENA ECONOMIES 7

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