Fifa World Cup and Gini Coefficient
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1 Fifa World Cup and Gini Coefficient Anindya Kumar Biswas, Department of Physics; North-Eastern Hill University, Mawkynroh-Umshing, Shillong July 16, 2018 Abstract In this paper we have found empirical evidence of a rising trend of lower Gini coefficient deciding the higher probability of winning of a country in a match in the FIFA World Cup. We have also studied the role of HDI in different stages of the football cup. I Introduction Fifa World Cup football[1] is intensely followed throughout the world. Thirty two countries of different strata come to this tournament. Those countries differ from each other in respective Gini Coefficient[2] and HDIs [3]. Gini Coefficient and HDI are important economic indicators for a country. Whether there is any correlation between winning in a match in the tournament and economic indicators of the contending teams, is a natural question which crops up in our discourses. To find, if any, we here undertake a simple-minded analysis of matches of 2014 Fifa World Cup and 2018 Fifa World Cup. The Gini coefficient, G, was conceived by Gini to measure inequality of income in a country. This is defined[4] mathematically as G = Σn i=1 Σn j=1 (x i x j ) 2nΣj=1 n x, j where, n is the number of people of a country and income of j-th person is x j. If all the people of a country is the same, Gini coefficient is zero. The Human Development Index(HDI) is defined [5] mathematically as HDI = (LEI.EI.II) 1/3, where, Life Expectancy Index(LEI)= LE 20 MY SI+EY SI 85 20, Education Index(EI)= 2, Mean Years of Schooling index(mysi)= MY S 15, Expected Years of Schooling index(eysi)= EY S ln(gnipc) ln100 18, with each entry in year and Income index(ii)= ln(75000) ln100 with each entry in dollar. 1
2 In the next section, section II, we consider the games of FIFA WORLD CUP For analysing, we collect the datas from [1], [4], [5], likes of [6]. In the following section, section III, we deal with all matches of FIFA WORLD CUP All the relevant scores, Gini coefficients, HDI we have gathered from [1], [7], [5], [8]. Section IV is conclusion. Section V is discussion about what can we study more with time. II FIFA WORLD CUP 2018 The FIFA WORLD CUP 2018 is being held in Russia from 14-th June to 15-th July. This is the 21st FIFA WORLD CUP. Following is the matches, results and Gini, HDI analysis. 2
3 II.1 Group Stage 1 Russia Gini HDI Gini low Saudi Arabia Gini HDI HDI low 2 Egypt Gini HDI Gini high Uruguay Gini HDI HDI high 3 Morocco Gini HDI Gini low Iran Gini HDI HDI high 4 Portugal Gini HDI Spain Gini HDI France Gini HDI Gini low Australia Gini HDI HDI high 6 Argentina Gini HDI Iceland Gini HDI Peru Gini HDI Gini low Denmark Gini HDI HDI high 8 Croatia Gini HDI Gini low Nigeria Gini HDI HDI high 9 Costa Rica Gini HDI Gini low Serbia Gini HDI HDI same 10 Germany Gini HDI Gini high Mexico Gini HDI HDI low 11 Brazil 1 Switzerland 1 12 Sweden Gini HDI Gini low South Korea Gini HDI HDI high 13 Belgium Gini HDI Gini low Panama Gini HDI HDI high 14 Tunisia Gini HDI Gini low England Gini HDI HDI high 15 Colombia Gini HDI Gini low Japan Gini HDI HDI high 16 Poland Gini HDI0.855 Gini high Senegal Gini HDI HDI low 17 Russia Gini HDI Gini high Egypt Gini HDI HDI high 3
4 18 Portugal Gini HDI Gini low Morocco Gini HDI HDI high 19 Uruguay Gini HDI Gini low Saudi Arabia Gini HDI HDI low 20 Iran Gini HDI Gini low Spain Gini HDI HDI high 21 Denmark Gini HDI Australia Gini HDI France Gini HDI Gini low Peru Gini HDI HDI high 23 Argentina Gini HDI Gini low Croatia Gini HDI HDI same 24 Brazil Gini HDI Gini high Costa Rica Gini HDI HDI low 25 Nigeria Gini HDI Gini high Iceland Gini HDI HDI low 26 Serbia Gini HDI Gini low Switzerland Gini HDI HDI high 27 Belgium Gini HDI Gini low Tunisia Gini HDI HDI high 28 South Korea Gini HDI Gini high Mexico Gini HDI HDI low 29 Germany Gini HDI Gini high Sweden Gini HDI HDI high 30 England Gini HDI Gini low Panama Gini HDI HDI high 31 Japan Gini HDI Senegal Gini HDI Poland Gini HDI Gini high Colombia Gini HDI HDI low 33 Uruguay Gini HDI Gini high Russia Gini HDI HDI low 34 Saudi Arabia Gini HDI Gini high Egypt Gini HDI HDI high 35 Spain 2 Morocco 2 36 Iran 1 Portugal 1 37 Australia Gini HDI Gini high Peru Gini HDI HDI low 38 Denmark 0 France 0 4
5 39 Nigeria Gini HDI Gini low Argentina Gini HDI HDI high 40 Iceland Gini HDI Gini high Croatia Gini HDI HDI low 41 South Korea Gini HDI Gini same Germany Gini HDI HDI low 42 Mexico Gini HDI Gini low Sweden Gini HDI HDI high 43 Serbia Gini HDI Gini high Brazil Gini HDI HDI low 44 Switzerland 2 Costa Rica 2 45 Japan Gini HDI Gini low Poland Gini HDI HDI low 46 Senegal Gini HDI Gini high Colombia Gini HDI HDI high 47 Panama Gini HDI Gini low Tunisia Gini HDI HDI low 48 England Gini HDI Gini low Belgium Gini HDI HDI low In the Group Stage, for the decided matches probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win is i.e. 2 3, probability for a team with lower 1 relative HDI to win is 2.06 i.e. 1 2 II.2 Round of sixteen 1 France Gini low Argentina HDI high 2 Uruguay Gini high Portugal HDI low 3 Spain 1 Russia 1 4 Croatia Denmark Brazil Gini high Mexico HDI low 6 Belgium Gini low Japan HDI low 7 Sweden Gini low Switzerland HDI low 8 Colombia England
6 In the Round of sixteen stage, probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win is 3 5, probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win is 4 5 i.e II.3 Quarter-Final 1 Brazil Gini low Belgium HDI high 2 France Gini low Uruguay HDI high 3 Russia Gini low Croatia HDI high 4 England Gini high Sweden HDI high In the Quarter Final stage, probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win is 3 4, probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win is zero. II.4 Semi-Final 1 France Gini high Belgium HDI high 2 Croatia Gini low England HDI low In the Semi Final stage, probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win is 1 2, probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win is 1 2. II.5 II.6 Third Place 1 Belgium Gini low England HDI low Final 1 France Gini high Croatia HDI high III FIFA WORLD CUP 2014 FIFA WORLD CUP 2014 was held in Brazil from 12th June to 13th July, Following is the matches, results and Gini, HDI analysis. 6
7 III.1 Group Stage 1 Brazil Gini HDI Gini high Croatia Gini HDI HDI low 2 Mexico Gini HDI Gini low Cameroon Gini HDI HDI high 3 Spain Gini HDI Gini low Netherlands Gini HDI HDI high 4 Chile Gini HDI Gini high Australia Gini HDI HDI low 5 Colombia Gini HDI Gini high Greece Gini HDI HDI low 6 Uruguay Gini HDI Gini high Costa Rica Gini HDI HDI low 7 England Gini HDI Gini high Italy Gini HDI HDI low 8 Ivory Coast Gini HDI Gini high Japan Gini HDI HDI low 9 Switzerland Gini HDI Gini low Ecuador Gini HDI HDI high 10 Cameroon Gini HDI Gini low Croatia Gini HDI HDI high 11 Colombia Gini HDI Gini high Ivory Coast Gini HDI HDI high 12 Uruguay Gini HDI Gini high England Gini HDI HDI low 13 Japan 0 Greece 0 14 Italy Gini HDI Gini high Costa Rica Gini HDI HDI low 15 Switzerland Gini HDI Gini same France Gini HDI HDI low 16 Honduras Gini HDI Gini low Ecuador Gini HDI HDI high 17 Argentina Gini HDI Gini high Iran Gini HDI HDI high 7
8 18 Germany 2 Ghana 2 19 Nigeria Gini HDI Gini high Bosnia and Herzegovina Gini HDI HDI low 20 Belgium Gini HDI Gini low Russia Gini HDI HDI high 21 France Gini HDI Gini low Honduras Gini HDI HDI high 22 Argentina Gini HDI Gini high Bosnia and Herzegovina Gini HDI HDI high 23 Germany Gini HDI Gini low Portugal Gini HDI HDI high 24 Iran Gini 37.4 Nigeria gini HDI Ghana Gini HDI Gini low USA Gini HDI HDI high 26 Belgium Gini HDI Gini high Algeria Gini HDI HDI high 27 Russia Gini South Korea Gini HDI Brazil Gini HDI Mexico Gini HDI Australia Gini HDI Gini low Netherlands Gini HDI HDI low 30 Spain Gini HDI Gini high Chile Gini HDI HDI low 31 South Korea Gini HDI Gini low Algeria Gini HDI HDI low 32 USA Gini HDI Portugal Gini HDI Australia Gini HDI Gini high Spain Gini HDI HDI low 34 Netherlands Gini HDI Gini low Chile Gini HDI HDI high 35 Cameroon Gini HDI HDI high Brazil Gini HDI Gini high 36 Croatia Gini HDI HDI low Mexico Gini HDI Gini high 37 Italy Gini HDI Gini high Uruguay Gini HDI HDI low 8
9 38 Costa Rica Gini HDI England Gini HDI Japan Gini HDI HDI low Colombia Gini HDI Gini high 40 Greece Gini HDI HDI high Ivory Coast Gini HDI Gini low 41 Bosnia and Herzegovina Gini HDI HDI low Iran Gini HDI Gini low 42 Nigeria gini HDI Gini low Argentina Gini HDI HDI high 43 Ecuador Gini HDI France Gini HDI Honduras Gini HDI Gini low Switzerland Gini HDI HDI high 45 USA Gini HDI HDI low Germany Gini HDI Gini low 46 Portugal Gini HDI HDI high Ghana Gini HDI Gini low 47 South Korea Gini HDI HDI low Belgium Gini HDI Gini low 48 Algeria Gini HDI Russia Gini In the Group Stage, for the decided matches probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win is 1 2, probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win is i.e III.2 Round of sixteen 9
10 1 Brazil 1 (3) 2013 Gini HDI Gini high Chile 1(2) 2013 Gini HDI HDI low 2 Colombia Gini HDI Gini high Uruguay Gini HDI HDI low 3 Netherlands Gini HDI Gini low Mexico Gini HDI HDI high 4 Costa Rica 1(5) 2013 Gini HDI Gini high Greece 1(3) 2013 Gini HDI HDI low 5 France Gini HDI Gini low Nigeria Gini HDI HDI high 6 Germany Gini HDI Gini high Algeria Gini HDI HDI high 7 Argentina Gini HDI Gini high Switzerland Gini HDI HDI low 8 Belgium Gini HDI Gini low USA Gini HDI HDI low In the Round of sixteen stage, probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win is 3 8, probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win is 5 8 i.e III.2.1 Quarter-Finals 1 France Gini HDI Gini low Germany Gini HDI HDI high 2 Brazil Gini HDI Gini low Colombia Gini HDI HDI high 3 Argentina Gini HDI Gini high Belgium Gini HDI HDI low 4 Netherlands 0(4) 2013 Gini HDI Gini low Costa Rica 0(3) 2013 Gini HDI HDI high In the Quarter Final stage, probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win is 3 4, probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win is 1 4 i.e III.3 Semi-Final 1 Brazil Gini HDI Gini low Germany Gini HDI HDI high 2 Netherlands 0(2) 2013 Gini HDI Gini high Argentina 0(4) 2013 Gini HDI HDI low 10
11 In the Semi-Finals, for the decided matches probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win is 1 2, probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win is 1 2. III.4 Third Place Play-off 1 Brazil Gini HDI Gini low Netherlands Gini HDI HDI high In the Third Place Play-off, the team with lower relative Gini coefficient, higher HDI won. III.5 Final 1 Germany Gini HDI Gini low Argentina Gini HDI HDI high In the Final, the team with lower relative Gini coefficient, higher HDI won. IV Conclusion It is a recurring theme in the Fifa World Cup 2018, from Group stages to Round of 16, to Quarter-Finals, to Semi-Finals to Final that probability of winning of a team with lower Gini is always more than 1 2. In the Group stage, it is 2 3. In Round of 16, it is 3 5. In Quarter-Finals, it is 3 4. In the Semi-Finals it is 1 2. In Third Place play-off, team with lower Gini won the match. To put the finding in persepctive, we compare with that in the Fifa World Cup We notice that probability of winning of a team with lower Gini is greater than 1 2. In the Group stage, it is 1 2. In Round of 16, it is 3 8. In Quarter-Finals, it is 3 4. In the Semi-Finals it is 1 2. In Third Place play-off and Final both teams with lower Gini won the respective matches. That s why we conclude that lower Gini team winning a match is becoming more likely with time. Not only that studying HDI, we see interesting swing. For the 2018 World cup matches, lower HDI team is less probable to win in Group stages with probability to win Lower HDI team is more probable to win in Round of 16 with probability 4 5. Lower HDI team is less probable to win in Quarter- Finals, with probability zero. In Semi-Finals lower HDI team came out to be equally probable as higher HDI team. In Third Place play-off, team with lower HDI won the match. In the Final, team with higher HDI won the match. For the 2014 World cup matches, lower HDI team is more probable to win in Group stages with probability to win Lower HDI team is more probable to 11
12 win in Round of 16 with probability 5 8. Lower HDI team is less probable to win in Quarter-Finals, with probability 1 4. In Semi-Finals lower HDI team came out to be equally probable as higher HDI team. In Third Place play-off and Final both teams with higher HDI won the respective matches. V Discussion Doing a detailed study considering all World cups, bringing other indicators into consideration, looking into from the standpoint of dynamical phase transition, are something someone wishes to do in future. VI Acknowledgement We would like to thank Dipankar Sutradhar for encouragement. References [1] [2] Gini Corrado(1912), Variabilita e mutabilita. [3] Mahbub ul Haq created HDI in [4] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/gini coefficient [5] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/human Development Index [6] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/argentina [7] knoema.com/atlas/ranks/gini index [8] Human Development Reports-UNDP, hdr.undp.org/sites/themes/hdr theme/country notes 12
Fifa World Cup and Gini Coefficient
Fifa World Cup and Gini Coefficient Anindya Kumar Biswas, Department of Physics; North-Eastern Hill University, Mawkynroh-Umshing, Shillong-793022. email:anindya@nehu.ac.in July 21, 2018 Abstract In this
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