Nuclear Weapons and International Politics

Transcription

1 Nuclear Weapons and International Politics Fall 2014 Nicholas L. Miller Department of Political Science Brown University Thursday, 4:00-6:20 PM Office: Watson Institute 303 Location: J. Walter Wilson 403 Office Hours: Tuesday 2-4 PM, or by appointment Course Description This seminar explores the causes and consequences of nuclear weapons proliferation in international politics. Each week we will explore a different dimension of nuclear proliferation, drawing on academic theory and historical evidence. Specific topics examined include the causes of nuclear proliferation, nonproliferation and counterproliferation policies, nuclear strategy, the effect of nuclear weapons on international conflict, and nuclear terrorism. The primary goal of the course is to provide students with a theoretical and historical understanding of core issues related to nuclear weapons, which in turn will allow for a more informed evaluation of contemporary policy debates. Before taking this course, it is recommend that students have previously completed Introduction to International Relations (POLS 0400). Enrollment priority will be given to students concentrating in political science, international relations, and upperclassmen. Assignments and Grading Participation: 30% As a discussion-based course, active participation is a crucial component of the grade. This includes both regular attendance in class and contribution to class discussion. Students should therefore complete all readings before attending class. Halfway through the semester, I will provide students with a provisional participation grade. Response Papers: 20% Over the course of the semester, students will write two brief response papers (maximum 1000 words) based on the week s assigned readings. These papers will be due via by 9 A.M. on the day of class and should critically examine at least one of the week s readings, either in terms of the logic of the argument, the evidence advanced to support the argument, or both. Solely summarizing the reading s argument is insufficient and will result in a poor grade. Students will sign up for particular weeks at the course s second meeting and likely will be called upon in class discussion to briefly present on their response paper as a springboard for discussion. 1

2 Research Paper: 50% The research paper is the most important component of the final grade, so students should begin work on this as early as possible. Papers should be between 20 and 30 double-spaced pages and can be on any topic related to nuclear weapons. The papers must include (1) a brief literature review, (2) a clearly stated argument or hypothesis (either from the readings or elsewhere), (3) a description of how the argument/hypothesis will be evaluated empirically, and (4) an evaluation of the argument using evidence from at least one historical case. While students are encouraged to evaluate an argument advanced in the course readings, they cannot use the same case(s) to evaluate the argument as are used in the readings. On 10/9, students are required to submit a one-page proposal that identifies the argument/hypothesis to be tested in the research paper and the case(s) that will be examined. Students are strongly encouraged to submit and receive feedback on one rough draft, but this must be submitted electronically no later than 12/4 (the final class period). I will provide comments within 72 hours of receiving the draft. Final papers are due by 5 PM on 12/15. Required Books The following books are required for the course. They are available for purchase at the bookstore or can be bought online. Copies of Bomb Scare, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era, and Arms and Influence are on reserve at the Rockefeller Library. Joseph Cirincione, Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007). Vipin Narang, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014). Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, 3 rd Edition (New York: WW Norton and Company, 2012). Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008 edition). 2

3 Weekly Schedule Week 1 (9/4): Introduction Week 2 (9/11): Technical and Historical Background Joseph Cirincione et al, Nuclear Weapons and Materials, in Deadly Arsenals (Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), Ch. 3, pp Office of Technology Assessment, Delivery Vehicles, in Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1997), pp Joseph Cirincione, Bomb Scare, Ch. 1-2, 5, pp. 1-46; Bernard Brodie, The Absolute Weapon, Ch Week 3 (9/18): The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, An Overview Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons. Week 4 (9/25): Causes of Proliferation, Demand-Side Scott Sagan, Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb, International Security 21, No. 3 ( ): Etel Solingen, The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint, International Security 19, No. 2 (1994): Jacques Hymans, Isotopes and Identity: Australia and the Nuclear Weapons Option, , Nonproliferation Review 7, No. 1 (2000): Nuno Monteiro and Alex Debs, The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Proliferation, International Security, forthcoming. Sonali Singh and Christopher Way, The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation, Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, No. 6 (2004): Week 5 (10/2): Causes of Proliferation, Supply-Side Matthew Fuhrmann, Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements, International Security 34, No. 1 (2009):

4 Matthew Kroenig, Exporting the Bomb: Why States Provide Sensitive Nuclear Assistance, American Political Science Review 103, No. 1 (2009): David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, Unraveling the AQ Khan Network and Future Proliferation Networks, Washington Quarterly 28, No. 2 (2005): R. Scott Kemp, The Nonproliferation Emperor Has No Clothes: The Gas Centrifuge, Supply- Side Controls, and the Future of Nuclear Proliferation, International Security 38, No. 4 (2014): Week 6 (10/9): Nonproliferation (RESEARCH PAPER PROPOSAL DUE) Francis Gavin, Blasts from the Past: Proliferation Lessons from the 1960s, International Security 29, No. 3 ( ): Nicholas Miller, Nuclear Dominoes: A Self-Defeating Prophecy? Security Studies 23, No. 1 (2014): Ariel Levite, Never Say Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited, International Security 27, No. 3 ( ): Maria Rost Rublee, Taking Stock of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: Using Social Psychology to Understand Regime Effectiveness, International Studies Review 10, No. 3 (2008): Nicholas Miller, The Secret Success of Nonproliferation Sanctions, International Organization, forthcoming. Week 7 (10/16): Counterproliferation Jason Ellis, The Best Defense: Counterproliferation and U.S. National Security, Washington Quarterly 26, No. 2 (2003): William Burr and Jeffrey Richelson, Whether to Strangle the Baby in the Cradle : The United States and the Chinese Nuclear Program, , International Security 25, No. 3 ( ): Sarah Kreps and Matthew Fuhrmann, Attacking the Atom: Does Bombing Nuclear Facilities Affect Proliferation? Journal of Strategic Studies 34, No. 2 (2011): Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer, Revisiting Osirak: Preventive Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation Risks, International Security 36, No. 1 (2011):

5 Jon Lindsay, Stuxnet and the Limits of Cyber Warfare, Security Studies 22, No. 3 (2013): Week 8 (10/23): Cold War Nuclear Strategy, Part I Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence, Ch Scott Sagan, Moving Targets (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1989), Ch. 1 Francis Gavin, The Myth of Flexible Response: United States Strategy in Europe during the 1960s, International History Review 23, No. 4 (2001): Week 9 (10/30): Cold War Nuclear Strategy, Part II Colin Gray and Keith Payne, Victory is Possible, Foreign Policy 39 (1980): Robert Jervis, Why Nuclear Superiority Doesn t Matter, Political Science Quarterly 94, No. 4 ( ): Charles Glaser, Why Do Strategists Disagree about the Requirements for Nuclear Deterrence? in Lynn Eden and Steven E. Miller, eds., Nuclear Arguments: Understanding the Strategic Nuclear Arms and Arms Control Debates (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1989): Carol Cohn, Sex and Death in the Rational World of Defense Intellectuals, Signs 12, No. 4 (1987): Week 10 (11/6): Nuclear Strategy Beyond the Superpowers M. Taylor Fravel and Evan Medeiros, China s Search for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure, International Security 35, No. 2 (2010): Vipin Narang, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era, chapters TBD. Week 11 (11/13): Nuclear Weapons, Conventional Conflict, and Crises John Mueller, The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons, International Security 13, No. 2 (1988): Ward Wilson, The Winning Weapon? Rethinking Nuclear Weapons in Light of Hiroshima, International Security 31, No. 4 (2007):

6 Rosemary Foot, Nuclear Coercion and the Ending of the Korean Conflict, International Security 13, No. 3 ( ): Marc Trachtenberg, The Influence of Nuclear Weapons in the Cuban Missile Crisis, International Security 10, No. 1 (1985): Hal Brands and David Palkki, Saddam, Israel, and the Bomb: Nuclear Alarmism Justified? International Security 36, No. 1 (2011): Week 12 (11/20): Norms and Nuclear Weapons Use Nina Tannenwald, The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basis of Nuclear Non-Use, International Organization 53, No. 3 (1999): T.V. Paul, Nuclear Taboo and War Initiation in Regional Conflicts, Journal of Conflict Resolution 39, No. 4 (1995): Daryl Press, Scott Sagan, and Ben Valentino, Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons, American Political Science Review 107, No. 1 (2013): Scott Sagan, Realist Perspectives on Ethical Norms and Weapons of Mass Destruction, in Sohail Hashimi and Steven Lee, eds., Ethics and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Religious and Secular Perspectives (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004): Week 13 (11/27): NO CLASS, THANKSGIVING BREAK Week 14 (12/4): Command and Control, Accidents, and Nuclear Terrorism (LAST DAY THAT DRAFT CAN BE SUBMITTED) Scott Sagan, The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons, International Security 18, No. 4 (1994): Peter Feaver, Command and Control in Emerging Nuclear Nations, International Security 17, No. 3 ( ): Graham Allison, How to Stop Nuclear Terror, Foreign Affairs 83, No. 1 (2004): Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier, Seven Myths of Nuclear Terrorism, Current History 104, No. 681 (2005): Keir Lieber and Daryl Press, Why States Won t Give Nuclear Weapons to Terrorists, International Security 38, No. 1 (2013):

7 Week 15 (12/11): Global Zero and Contemporary U.S. Nuclear Policy George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, A World Free of Nuclear Weapons, Wall Street Journal, 4 January Thomas Schelling, A World Without Nuclear Weapons? Daedalus 138, No. 4 (2009): Keir Lieber and Daryl Press, The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. Primacy, International Security 30, No. 4 (2006): U.S. Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report, /15: RESEARCH PAPER DUE 7

8 Resources on Nuclear Proliferation Best Histories of (Successful) Nuclear Weapons Programs United States: Richard Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb Soviet Union: David Holloway, Stalin and the Bomb Britain: Margaret Gowing, Independence and Deterrence France: Lawrence Scheinman, Atomic Energy Policy in France under the Fourth Republic China: John Lewis and Litai Xue, China Builds the Bomb Israel: Avner Cohen, Israel and the Bomb India: George Perkovich, India s Nuclear Bomb South Africa: Helen Purkett and Stephen Burgess, South Africa s Weapons of Mass Destruction Pakistan: Feroz Khan, Eating Grass North Korea: Jonathan Pollack, No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, and International Security Online Sources Nuclear Threat Initiative, Federation of American Scientists, Archival Documents Online Foreign Relations of the United States, , Foreign Relations of the United States, Pre-1961, National Security Archive, Digital National Security Archive, Cold War International History Project, 8