Nuclear Proliferation: Can Terrorists Buy, Steal or Built a Nuclear Bomb?

Transcription

1 Nuclear Proliferation: Can Terrorists Buy, Steal or Built a Nuclear Bomb? Intro to Nuclear Weapons Consequences of a Nuclear Terror Attack on Chicago Can Terrorists Buy, Steal or Built a Nuclear Bomb? Arsenals and the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War What is a Radiological Attack? What is Being Done? Matthias Grosse Perdekamp, Department of Physics and ACDIS 1

2 Nuclear Weapons vs Conventional Explosives How much energy does a nuclear weapon release compared to conventional explosives? 1964: Operation Sailor Hat 500 tons of TNT o 1000 times o 10,000 times o 100,000 times o 1,000,000 times 50 Bombers each carrying 20 bombs of 1000 pounds of TNT Enola Gay! 1,500 bombers each carrying 20 bombs of 1000 pounds of TNT Nuclear Proliferation 2

3 Impact of the 15 kiloton detonation in Hiroshima on wood-framed Physics structures: 280: Session 8 66,000 killed immediately 69,000 injured Impact of a 500 kiloton device Plan for This Session detonated in Chicago A nuclear weapon is the only weapon that could Weapons of mass destruction destroy a major city and kill hundreds of thousands of Module people 3: in an instant Nuclear Effects of weapons nuclear explosions are the only weapons that could destroy a nation as a functioning society wood-framed structures Nothing can be done ahead of time or afterward to significantly reduce the death and 11p280 Effects of Nuclear Explosions, p. 3 destruction Frederick K. Lamb caused 2012 by a nuclear 15p280 Nuclear Explosions, explosion p. 15p280 Nuclear Explosions, p. FKL, Dep. Of Physics

4 UN Containment Regime for the Nuclear Proliferation Threat Nuclear Arms Control Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, 1968 Divides states of the world into Nuclear Weapons States (NWS): US, Russia, UK, France, China Non-Nuclear Weapons States (NNS) Grand bargain Upholding and further extending the NPT Proliferation regime is seen has of utmost importance by most countries: NWs states agree to share peaceful applications of nuclear technologies with NNS + commitment to pursue reduction of nuclear arsenals The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) carries out and oversees the implementation and verification of the treaty! NNS states agree not to develop or acquire NWs de-facto NWS North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Israel are the only non-signatories On the Viability of the JCPOA 4

5 Some Technical Preliminaries (1) How Do Nuclear Fission Weapons Work? (1) For Uranium, bombardment with neutrons leads to the splitting of the nuclei (fission) and subsequent release of energy and neutrons. Nuclear Fission of Uranium: (2) Neutrons released from fission will cause secondary nuclear fission events if enough fissile material is present to stop the neutrons! critical mass! (3) For Uranium-235 a chain of fission reactions occurs and releases large amounts of energies in less than 1 millionth of a second. (The only other nuclei for which this works in practice are Plutonium isotopes). Nuclear Proliferation 5

6 Technical Preliminaries: (2) Fraction of U-235 must be enriched in natural U Natural Uranium is 99.3% U-238 (which is not fissile) 0.7% U-235 (which is fissile) Credit: Nuclear Regulatory Commission

7 Technical Preliminaries Using Ultra-Centrifuges to Enrich the Fraction of U-235 Gas centrifuge isotope separation o Hightech version of centrifuges used in science and medicine o Feed stock is uranium hexaflouride (UF 6 ) gas High Technology out of reach for non-state actors! Nuclear Proliferation 7

8 Example, Terror Organization Seeking Revenge for NATO Intervention in Afghanistan I) Select high profile symbolic target: eg. NATO summit in Chicago in May of 2012 with all NATO heads of state present. II) Smuggle fissile material and other weapon components illegally into the country. III) Rent shop or house to setup nuclear device. IV) Bring weapon by truck or boat close to target and detonate. Nuclear Proliferation 8

9 Example, a 10 kt Nuclear Explosion in Chicago 9 Credit: Alex Wellerstein, Stevens Institute of Technology Nuclear Proliferation

10 Consequences of 10 kt Nuclear Attack on McComerick Place Fireball radius: 650 feet Fireball surface temperature: 10,800 o F evaporates any material! Blast wave with pressures > 20 psi for 1540 feet destroys concrete structures, fatalities near 100%. Blast wave with pressures > 5 psi for 3280 feet destroys most residential houses, all injured, many fatally. Direct radiation exposure > 500 rem for 4100 feet 50-90% of the population will die over days to weeks Thermal radiation exposure > 8.4 cal/cm2 for 4600 feet Killed All exposed immediately: will suffer 13, rd degree and injuries: burns 28,850 Nuclear Proliferation 10

11 Ground Burst: The Fire Ball Rises and Produces Strong Upward Wind Currents The fire ball evaporates large amounts of material. Radioactive particles from the nuclear explosion attach to vapor and particulates and are transported into the atmosphere. The particulates drift with the wind and return downwind from the explosion to the ground: radioactive fallout! Fireball Nuclear Proliferation 11

12 Fall Out From 10 kt Explosion More than 1 rad/hour: 320 square miles More than 10 rad/hour: 150 square miles More than 100 rad/hour: 20 square miles (50% lethal dose after few hours) Credit: Alex Wellerstein, Stevens Institute of Technology 12 Nuclear Proliferation

13 10 kt Nuclear Explosion in Chicago: How Long Does the Fallout Stay? Tetsuji Imanaka et al Reconstruction of local fallout composition and gamma-ray exposure in a village contaminated by the first USSR nuclear test in the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan. Radiat. Environ. Biophys. (2010) 49: Assuming that an annual Dose of 6 msv will be acceptable. It will take 7-10 years to Repopulate areas with more Than initial 100 rad/hour (6 msv is the highest naturally occuring dose without evidence for increased rates of cancer!) Nuclear Proliferation 13

14 Can Terrorists Buy, Steal or Built a Nuclear Bomb? Nuclear Security Fact Sheet from the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School Motive: In 1998, Osama bin Laden issued a statement, The Nuclear Bomb of Islam, declaring that It is the duty of Muslims to prepare as much force as possible to terrorize the enemies of God. How : Buy or steal 25 kg of HEU, terrorists could make an improvised nuclear device (IND). Weapon Delivery : An IND can be delivered to its target along the same routes that bring drugs, illegal immigrants, and legal goods to major cities of the world (No missile will be needed!) Nuclear Proliferation 14

15 Who is Planning an Nuclear Attack? Nuclear Security Fact Sheet from the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School Terrorist groups that have demonstrated interest in acquiring a nuclear weapon: Al Qaed Chechnya-based separatists, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Aum Shinrikyo Number of terrorist groups that may be capable of acquiring and using nuclear weapons: Al Qaeda, North Caucasus-based separatists, Lashkar-e-Tayyib, Hezbollah, Taliban Number of known groups that have attempted to buy nuclear material on the black marke Aum Shinrikyo and Al Qaeda Al Qaeda s Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons: 9/11 Commission (2004): Al Qaeda has tried to acquire or make nuclear weapons for at least ten years and continues to pursue its strategic goal of obtaining a nuclear capability. Nuclear Proliferation 15

16 Pathways to a Nuclear Weapon Nuclear Security Fact Sheet from the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School What is the hardest part of making a nuclear bomb? Acquiring fissile material: Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) or Pu Opportunities for theft, purchase form black market: Hundreds of locations holding nuclear weapons or weapons-usable material and no binding global standards for how well these weapons and materials should be secured. More than 130 research reactors with HEU, some of which are in developing and transitional countries. Once nuclear material is acquired, could terrorists make a nuclear weapon? Yes U.S. Office of Technology Assessment (1977): A small group of people, none of whom have ever had access to the classified literature, could design and build a crude nuclear explosive device. Amount of HEU required to make an IND: 25 kg Global stockpile of HEU: 1,600,000 kg Amount of Pu required to make a crude nuclear bomb: 8 kg Global stockpile of separated Pu: 500,000 kg Nuclear Proliferation 16

17 Pathways to a Nuclear Weapon Nuclear Security Fact Sheet from the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School Fissile material for more than one bomb has been lost or stolen One hundred percent of known stolen or lost fissile material has been recovered. IAEA report in 2009, There are indications that the seized material was only a sample of larger quantities available for illegal purchase or at risk of theft. Have terrorists acquired fissile material? No known cases Examples for vulnerable HEU or Pu: In 1993, 20 bombs worth of HEU was discovered in a poorly secured building in Kazakhstan. In 2006, Russian citizen Oleg Khinsagov was arrested in Georgia for carrying 100 grams of HEU and attempting to find a buyer for what he claimed were many additional kilograms. In 2007, two armed teams broke into South Africa s Pelindaba nuclear facility, a site where an estimated 30 weapons worth of HEU is stored. They overcame a 10,000-volt security fence, entered without setting off an alarm, broke into the emergency control center, shot a worker, and escaped Nuclear Proliferation 17

18 Example for Insufficiently Guarded HEU Building 116 at the Kurchatov Institute in Moscow had enough HEU for a bomb at its research reactor, but had an overgrown fence and no intrusion detectors or alarms, an example of the poor state of security at many nuclear facilities after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nuclear Proliferation 18

19 Pathways to a Nuclear Weapon Nuclear Security Fact Sheet from the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School Examples for vulnerable HEU or Pu cont d There are U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe. A 2008 internal U.S. Air Force investigation determined that most of the sites that store them do not meet U.S. security standards. In 2010, six anti-nuclear activists broke into a Belgian military base that stores U.S. nuclear weapons and walked around for up to an hour. The potential for a sale exists. For example, Kim Jong-il sold a Yongbyon-style reactor capable of producing Pu to Syria. Has a country ever lost a nuclear weapon? Yes At least 11 U.S. weapons have been lost. Four Russian nuclear submarines with nuclear warheads sank and were never recovered. 421 incidents from of theft or loss of nuclear or other radioactive materials reported to the IAEA by member states! 18 confirmed incidents from involving unauthorized possession of HEU or Pu! Nuclear Proliferation 19

20 Why Would North Korea Sell Nuclear Weapons? (as nuclear forensics allows attribution and retaliation!) Famine in North Korea unknown number of victims estimates 600,000 3,000,000 in a population of 23 million Minimum needed to avoid starvation impact of food aid Nuclear Proliferation 20

21 21 The Challenge to Secure Nuclear Materials Long-Term: The First Human Endevour with 100% Perfection? U.S. ELDERLY NUN SENTENCED TO NEARLY THREE YEARS FOR TENNESSEE NUCLEAR BREAK-IN - BY REUTERS In 2012 Sister Megan Rice, Michael Walli and Greg Boertje-Obed advanced through several fences reaching a storage facility for nuclear material at the Y-12 nuclear facility in Oakridge. If such incident can happen in the US: what are the standards for nuclear safeguards in other countries? Nuclear Proliferation MGP, Dep. of Phys. 2017

22 The Challenge to Secure Nuclear Materials Long-Term: The First Human Endevour with 100% Perfection? August, 2007: Six Cruise missiles were mistakenly loaded with W80-1 warheads (150 kt explosive yield) and flown from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota to Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana. The nuclear warheads were not reported missing for 36 hours and remained on the aircraft for 36 hours. During this time the warheads were not protected as required by law and military procedures. Nuclear Proliferation 22

23 The Challenge to Secure Nuclear Materials Long-Term: The First Human Endevour with 100% Perfection? If this is a problem in the US: what are the standards for military nuclear operations elsewhere? Nuclear Proliferation 23

24 Nuclear Warheads on Alert United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research UNIDIR/2012/6 Hans Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie Nuclear Proliferation 24

25 Accidental Nuclear War could be Triggered Through False Alarms of the Early Warning Systems From NPR Stanislav Petrov, a former Soviet military officer, poses at his home in 2015 near Moscow. In 1983, he was on duty when the Soviet Union's early warning satellite indicated the U.S. had fired nuclear weapons at his country. He suspected, correctly, it was a false alarm and did not immediately send the report up the chain of command. Petrov died at age 77. Nuclear Proliferation 25

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33 What is a Radiological Weapon and Attack? A radiological weapon is a conventional explosive mixed with radioactive material (it is not a nuclear explosives device). It would be used to radioactively contaminate a large area in a city disrupting life and business. Well within reach given the means of terrorist groups It would cause very significant fear and economic damage but limited loss of life. Nuclear Proliferation 33

34 What is Being Done to Counter Nuclear Proliferation? Diplomacy (selected agreements): Non Proliferation Treaty (1968) + Additional Protocol (1997) Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (1996) Nuclear Security Summit (2010) JCPOA Iran Nuclear Deal (2015) Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (2017) Nuclear Proliferation 34

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