ICES advice for 2013 Herring stocks: North Sea ecoregion and Celtic Sea and West of Scotland ecoregion

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1 ICES advice for 213 Herring stocks: North Sea ecoregion and Celtic Sea and West of Scotland ecoregion July 11, 212 Amsterdam Pelagic RAC Carmen Fernández ACOM Vice-chair

2 North Sea ecoregion North Sea autumn spawners - NSAS (IV, IIIa, VIId) Western Baltic spring spawners WBSS (IIIa, 22-24)

3 Celtic Sea & West Scotland ecoregion VIa (North) West of Scotland VIa (South) & VIIb,c VIIa North Irish Sea VIIa South & VIIg,h,j,k Celtic Sea and S Ireland

4 Advisory Process Advisory Committee (ACOM) Approve draft advice; consistency assurance (1 scientist from each of the 2 ICES member countries + chair & 4 vice-chair) WCBS WCCS Advice Release end May 212 end June 212 Advisory Drafting Group (ADG) Draft the advice, based on the peer reviewed assessments (scientists & reviewers) ADGBS ADGCSE Review Group (RG) Review the EG work; quality assurance & peer review (scientists independent of the EG) RGBS RGCSE Expert Group (EG) Assessment of the status of the fish stocks (scientists) HAWG

5 ICES advice All advice available online at: Follow link to Advice Latest advice In addition to all advice items, document General context to ICES advice explains principles and basis for advice 5

6 Basis for ICES Advice for 213 Management Plan Consistent PA & recognised as potential basis for advice by interested parties No ICES MSY framework Transition No ICES PA framework All options in Outlook Table for 213 6

7 MSY Framework (as previous years): Maximize long term average yield Safeguard against low SSB ICES MSY Harvest Control Rule: MSY B trigger more caution needed F MSY SSB 213

8 Transition to MSY HCR by 215 Moving from F 21 to F MSY-HCR in 215 in 5 steps F MSY-HCR transition 213 =.4 F(21) +.6 F MSY-HCR F MSY-HCR transition 214 =.2 F(21) +.8 F MSY-HCR F MSY-HCR transition 215 =. F(21) + 1. F MSY-HCR = F MSY-HCR (values of advised F capped at F pa, for consistency with PA) 8

9 Data limited stocks (DLS): new approach this year All stocks for which a full assessment and outlook table with catch options for 213 can not be provided more than 12 of the approx 2 stocks for which ICES gives advice are DLS wide range of situations In past: only qualitative advice provided ( Do not increase or Reduce catch) This year ICES is providing quantitative advice for the first time

10 Data limited stocks (DLS): Work in 212: -- enormous effort WKFRAME 3 (Jan); WKLIFE (Feb); RGLIFE (May); Further development by ICES Sec, scientists, ACOM Principles: * Available information should be used * Advice for DLS should, to extent possible, follow same principles as for data-rich stocks (aiming towards exploitation consistent with MSY) * Precautionary approach: advice more cautious when knowledge about stock status is less

11 ICES 213 Template (as last year) Two-pager simple information for managers Supporting information Background to two-pager 11

12 State of stock table (as last year)

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14 Basis for ICES Advice for 213 North Sea autumn spawners NSAS EU/Norway MP Western Baltic spring spawners WBSS MSY

15 North Sea autumn spawners (NSAS)

16 North Sea autumn spawners Advice for 213, EU/Norway MP: Catch < 48 2 t, including t for the A-fleet No bottom disturbing activities (e.g. aggregate extraction) in spawning areas during spawning season and within 1 month before and after MP should be revised SSB (' tonnes) Fishing mortality: 2-6 Recruitment. Age: Billions Benchmark in 212 changed absolue values of SSB and F (due to changes in estimated selection of fishery and M): * reference points and MP need to be re-evaluated

17 F (ages 2-6) SSB in 1 t Landings in 1 t Recruitment in billions SSB in 1 t North Sea autumn spawners MSY (F MSY ) F (Fishing Mortality) Below target Precautionary approach (F pa ) Harvested sustainably 2 Management plan (F MP ) Below target SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass)* * at spawning time in autumn MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Management plan (SSB MP ) Undefined Full reproductive capacity Above trigger Fishing Mortality (ages 2-6) * Benchmark 212: changed stock perception (overall levels, not trends) 14 Landings Fishing Mortality Fmsy Recruitment (age ) Spawning Stock Biomass 5 Bpa 4 Blim * No revision of reference points (yet) * Low recruitment since 23 * Still in low productivity phase Herring has major impact on other fish stocks, as prey and predator; also prey to marine mammals and seabirds

18 North Sea autumn spawners Directed (human consumption) and bycatch in industrial fisheries Mesh sizes: above 32 mm (directed) and below 32 mm (bycatch) Separate TAC for directed fishery and bycatch ceiling for industrial fishery. Further separated into North Sea and Division IIIa. Fleets: A: directed in North Sea B: bycatch in North Sea C: directed in Division IIIa (also catches WBSS) D: bycatch in Division IIIa (also catches WBSS)

19 North Sea autumn spawners F-values by fleet and total Catches by fleet Biomass FLEET FLEET FLEET FLEET F -1 F 2-6 FLEET FLEET FLEET FLEET SSB SSB %SSB %TAC A B C D A B C D change change fleet A i % -1% ii % +15% iii % % iv % +27% v % -15% Scenarios i No fishing ii EU Norway management plan (with 15% limit on TAC change for A-fleet) iii Roll over of 212 TAC for A-fleet iv EU Norway HCR with no limit on TAC change; corresponds to F MSY and F pa v 15% decrease in TAC for A-fleet

20 Western Baltic spring spawners (WBSS)

21 Landings in 1 t F(ages 3-6) Western Baltic spring spawners Recruitment in billions SSB in 1 t SSB in 1 t Advice for 213, MSY: Catch < 51 9 t ICES recommends eliminating the optional transfer to Subarea IV MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) Appropriate Undefined SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) Landings Above trigger Undefined Fishing Mortality FMSY Fishing Mortality (ages 3-6) Recruitment (age ) Spawning Stock Biomass MSYBtrigger * Stronger yc in 21 and 211 * F below F MSY in 211 for the first time * SSB again above MSY B trigger Catches of WBSS herring in the NS should not be allowed

22 Western Baltic spring spawners Migrate in summer into more saline waters of Div IIIa and eastern part of IVa, where they are caught mixed with North Sea herring (NSAS). Directed (human consumption) and bycatch in industrial fisheries Mesh sizes: above 32 mm (directed) and below 32 mm (bycatch) Separate TAC for directed fishery and bycatch ceiling for industrial fishery in Division IIIa; and for fishery in SD Fleets: A: directed in North Sea (catches mostly NSAS) C: directed in Division IIIa (also catches NSAS) D: bycatch in Division IIIa (also catches NSAS) F: all fisheries in SD 22-24

23 Western Baltic spring spawners Catch for WBSS (does not include catches of NSAS in Division IIIa): SD Division F Division IIIa SSB SSB % SSB IVaE Rationale Catch 213 Basis change Fleet F Fleet C Fleet D Fleet A (all) (directed) (bycatch) (directed) MSY framework 51.9 F MSY % Zero catch F = % Other options 5.6 F 212 * % 59.5 F 212 * % 68.5 F 212 * % Flexibility to take a proportion of Division IIIa TAC in North Sea introduces significant uncertainty in forecast To protect mature fish, WBSS catch in N.Sea should not be allowed to increase Forecast of NSAS caught by Fleets C and D calculated from the WBSS forecast of these fleets (24 4 and 1 4 t) using the last 3 year average ratio of NSAS to WBSS in their catches used in the forecast for NSAS, so that forecasts of both stocks are consistent (Uncertainty in the prediction of the fraction of NSAS in the Division IIIa catches)

24 Division VIa North (West of Scotland)

25 Landings in 1 t F(ages 3-6) Division VIa North SSB in 1 t Recruitment in billions SSB in 1 t Advice for 213, MP: Landings < t Activities that impact seabed should not take place in spawning grounds, unless they can be shown not to have a negative impact on spawning, larval production or stock dynamics MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Management plan (F MGT ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) Below target Undefined Below target SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) Landings Undefined Above limit Fishing Mortality FMSY Recruitment (age 1) Fishing Mortality (ages 3-6) Spawning Stock Biomass Blim Recruitment in last decade lower than historically Reduced productivity since late 198s F fluctating around or below F MSY SSB fluctuating at low level (above B lim ) 25

26 Division VIa North Before 26, fishery was evenly distributed in time and space. Since 26, majority of fishing in northern part and Q3 Generally clean fisheries, little bycatch and low discarding Area misreporting into Division VIa North Rationale Landings (213) SSB (213) 1 Basis F (213) SSB (214) SSB change 2 TAC change 3 Management Plan % TAC constraint % +2% MSY Framework F MSY % +34% Zero catch 12 F= % 1% Other options F 212 * % 2% F 212 * % % F % +17% MP: SSB(213) above 75 t F(213)=.25 with 2% TAC constraint Assessment noisy, with annual revisions in SSB and F. TAC constraint in MP helps keep stability in fishery. Considerable mixing between herring stocks west of the British Isles

27 Divisions VIa South & VIIbc

28 Divisions VIa South & VIIbc Advice for 213, MSY: No catches unless a rebuilding plan implemented Activities that impact on seabed should not take place in spawning grounds unless they can be shown not to have a negative impact on spawning, larval production or stock dynamics MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) Above target Undefined SSB (Spawning Stock Biomass) Undefined Reduced reproductive capacity * Two exploratory assessments: Different trends in F in last decade, but both show F is still above F MSY and SSB well below B lim. Recruitment low since 2. Rebuilding Plan proposed by Pelagic RAC in

29 Divisions VIa South & VIIbc Pelagic trawlers, Q 1 and 4 Low TAC has led to very short fishing season (only a few days, compared to 5 months before 23) Generally clean fisheries, little bycatch and low discarding One exploratory assessment (red lines) based on catch-at-age data only and uncertain Another exploratory assessment (black lines) uses acoustic survey (short series, 28-11) Efforts to split Malin Shelf survey data according to stock component should continue Information required on extent of catches of this component in Div VIa North Advice according to MSY framework: SSB is well below Blim there should be no catch unless a rebuilding plan is implemented Proposed plan from Pelagic RAC can form the basis of this. The plan should include possibly area closures and should cover all areas where stock is caught

30 Division VIIa North of 52º 3 (Irish Sea)

31 Irish Sea herring Landings in 1 t F (ages 4-6) Recruitment in millions SSB in 1 t Advice for 213, MSY: Landings < 5 1 t Activities that impact on seabed should not take place on spawning grounds unless they can be shown not to have a negative impact on spawning, larval production or stock dynamics SY (F MSY ) recautionary pproach (F pa,f lim ) SY (B trigger ) recautionary pproach (B pa,b lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) Appropriate Undefined SSB (Spawning Stock Biomass) Above trigger Full reproductive capacity Benchmarked in Landings Fishing Mortality Fmsy Recruitment (age 1) Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa MSY Btrigger Blim * Recruitment has been increasing and above average for several years * F has been decreasing and now below F MSY * SSB increasing, well above MSY B trigger 31

32 Irish Sea herring Pelagic trawlers in Q 3 and 4 take most catches Small local gillnet fishery in Q 4 Generally clean fisheries, little bycatch and low discarding Mixing with neighbouring herring stocks. Juveniles from Celtic Sea stock also in VIIaN and caught in acoustic survey. Landings F SSB %SSB %TAC Rationale Basis change change (213) (213) (214) 1) 2) MSY 5.1 F MSY % 8% Zero catch F = 23 2% -1% Other options 4.39 TAC-15% (F 212 *.96) % -15% Stable TAC (F 212 *1.15) % % TAC+15% (F 212 *1.34) % + 15% MSY framework: since SSB(213) > MSY B trigger, use F MSY =.26

33 Division VIIa South of 52º 3 and Divisions VIIg,h,j,k (Celtic Sea & South of Ireland)

34 F(ages 2-5) SSB in 1 t Landings in 1 t Recruitment in billions Celtic Sea & South Ireland Advice for 213, MSY: Landings < 19 t Activities that impact on seabed should not take place in spawning grounds unless they can be shown not to have a negative impact on spawning, larval production or stock dynamics MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) Below target Undefined SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) Undefined Full reproductive capacity Landings Fishing Mortality * Several good year classes lately and lower F, leading to high SSB values * A long term management plan has been agreed by the Irish industry in 211, with target F=.23 and 3% TAC constraint. 34 * ICES is in the process of evaluating the plan (request by Ireland). FMSY Recruitment (age 1) Spawning Stock Biomass Blim Bpa

35 Celtic Sea & South Ireland Autumn and winter spawning components (October to February) Part of stock (mainly juveniles) in Irish Sea and return to Celtic Sea to spawn Considerable efficiency creep in fishery since late 198s (greater ability to locate fish) Discards increasing in recent years, due to quota management system Large uncertainty in estimation of 1-ringers. As 5% of them are mature, this influences SSB estimates and short-term forecast. Rationale Catch (213) SSB (213) 1 MSY framework: No MSY B trigger has been identified for the stock, but likely that SSB(213) would be above any potential candidate use F MSY =.25 Basis F SSB %SSB Change 2) % TAC Change 3) (213) (214) Proposed Rebuilding Plan 15 8 F % -31% Proposed Long term -5% Mgt Plan management plan -18% MSY framework F MSY % -12% Zero catch 88 Zero catch % -1% Other Options F % -45% status quo catch % %

36 Summary Stock F MSY Basis Advice for 212 Advice for 213 NSAS.25 EU/Norway MP < 248 t (23 t A-fleet) < 48 2 t ( t A-fleet) WBSS.25 MSY < 42 7 t < 51 9 t VIa North.25 Scotland MP < 22 9 t < t VIa South & VIIbc.25 MSY reduce No catch unless rebuilding plan Irish Sea.26 MSY no increase < 5 1 t Celtic Sea.25 MSY < 26 9 t < 19 t Currently evaluating MP for NSAS & Celtic Sea herring Herring stock to be benchmarked in 213: WBSS Thank you for your attention! Comments and questions?

37 Horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) in Division IXa (southern stock)

38 Fishing mortality (age 2-1) SSB in 't Landings in ' t Recruimtent in thousands Southern horse mackerel Advice for 213: will be released on July 12 MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Qualitative evaluation MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) Not available Not available Not available SSB (Spawning Stock Biomass) Not available Not available Not available No assessment performed in 212; Spanish 211 data not considered consistent with previous years data Landings Fishing mortality Recruitment (age ) SSB * Landings, F and SSB relatively stable (but wide confidence intervals, i.e. high uncertainty). Recruitment has occassionally large peaks (as in 21) * Catches in the areas also contain other species of horse makerel. This assessment and advice is only for Trachurus trachurus 38

39 Southern horse mackerel * Current fishing mortality (.9) below per-recruit reference points and does not seem detrimental to stock * High uncertainty in estimates of F and SSB Per-Recruit Reference Points: F (2-1) Yield/R SSB/R Average last 3 years F F 35%SPR F med Forecast for 213 (assumes F(211-12)=F(21); average Rec in ): Rationale Landings (213) Basis F (213) SSB (214) %SSB change 1) % TAC change 2) Zero catch % -1% 5.3 F 21 * % -83% 1.5 F 21 * % -66% 15.6 F 21 * % -49% 2.6 F 21 * % -33% Status quo 25.5 F % -17% Current TAC 3.3 F 21 * % -2% 35 F 21 * % 14% 39.6 F 21 * % 29% 44.1 F 21 * % 43% 48.6 F 21 * % 58%

40 Outcome of WKWHMMP on Nov 23, 211 Workshop on western horse mackerel management plan evaluation Workshop set up as part of a process to respond to an EC request to ICES for evaluation of some modifications in the HCR of the WHMMP

41 Western horse mackerel MP HCR: Y = year of latest egg survey Total Removal (Y+1) = 1.7*{ 75 + TAC(Y)*weight(slope 3 last surveys) / 2 } EC Request to ICES: (a) to reassess the appropriate constant factor for a final TAC increase (currently w = 1.7) with regard to the short-term and long-term risk of SSB falling below the reference SSB, and to advise on the performance of the harvest rule when the constant factor is fixed 5 percentage points higher or 5 percentage points lower (assuming that the rule would stipulate a corresponding range for the value of the constant factor) (b) to advise on any other element of the harvest rule that could be suitable for integrating a range of values rather than a fixed value, and (c) considerations/arguments that should guide the exercise of discretion within a given range.

42 Western horse mackerel MP Originally 2 workshops envisaged: 1st one scoping; 2nd analysis & conclusions Intention had been to perform an extensive evaluation of current HCR and alternatives Further communication with EC before 1st workshop indicated that no substantial revisions to HCR were desired, only small variants (ranges of values) for some quantities within current HCR This limited the number of options the workshop decided to explore Workshop considered that: substantial modifications to HCR should be based on stated objectives agreed between all stakeholders, initial discussion of objectives and agreement is required before alternative HCRs might be developed or evaluated Work focused strictly in responding to current EC request for minor variants of current HCR

43 Western horse mackerel MP ICES responded to EC request in April 212 (full text on ICES web): Incorporating a range of values for final percentage change (currently w=1.7) is feasible Suggested range:.95 to 1.5 Combining a range of values for w with a range of values for the fixed total removal component (currently 75 t) of HCR is also feasible The values for w and the fixed total removal component interact with each other in the HCR, must be chosen jointly and not independently Choices constrained by keeping risk of low stock biomass below 5% fixed TAC component/v % 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 71 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 1% 72 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 9% 1% 11% 73 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 9% 9% 11% 12% 74 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 1% 11% 12% 75 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% 1% 12% 13% 76 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 11% 12% 13% 14% 77 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% 11% 12% 14% 16% 78 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 1% 11% 12% 13% 15% 16% 79 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% 1% 12% 12% 14% 16% 17% 8 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 9% 1% 11% 12% 14% 15% 16% 18%

44 Western horse mackerel MP Response based on same simulation settings as in 27, which were not considered comprehensive enough (e.g. if long periods of low recruitment) ICES cannot unequivocally conclude that the original or modified HCR is consistent with the precautionary approach in the long term and further advises that it should be subjected to a complete review ICES notes that the values and ranges of the parameters given here are likely to change as a result of such a review.