Nepali Migration to India

Transcription

1 Nepal Mgraton to Inda Pranat Datta Populaton Studes Unt Indan Statstcal Insttute 203 Barackpore Trunk Road Kolkata Paper to be presented at the IUSSP Conference on Southeast Asa s Populaton n a changng Asan context, Bangkok, Thland, 0-3 June 2002

2 .00 Introducton Manknd have wtnessed populaton movement from tme mmemoral. But t does not posses recorded hstory of ths movement for all the tme and for all the places. Populaton movement or more specfcally mgraton from Nepal to Inda has an authentc record snce the East Inda Companes rse to power. The Anglow Nepalese Peace Treaty of 86 whch was modfed latter, empowered the Brtsh Government to rase three regments of Nepalese n the northern hlls of Inda. The steady recrutment of solders from Nepal helped Nepalese to settle down n ths regon. Moreover constructon of Darjeelng Hmalayan Ralways n the seventes of the last century worked as a pull factor for Nepal mgraton to Inda. Ths paper s devoted to dscuss basc features of Nepal mgrants n Inda relatng to volume, sex rato, spatal varaton, growth rates and mgraton cohorts usng census records. An effort s made to estmate fresh mgraton rate, annual mgraton and return mgraton of Nepalese..0 Nepal : A Geographc Profle Nepal s small ndependent Hndu Kngdom n the Hmalayan range of mountans. The very name of Nepal s debatable. The word Nepal owes ts orgn to words Ne and Pal. Ne was a sant who lved at the juncton of the two rvers Bagmat and Kesut and Pal means to chersh. So, Nepal sgnfes "chershed Land of Ne". Accordng to another nterpretaton the country s named after Newars who formed a large secton of the populaton (UN, ESCAP,980). Nepal extends from ' to ' north lattude and from ' to ' east longtude (UN, ESCAP,980). It was land locked country and because of ts naccessblty t was known as "Forbdden Land" upto 950s and after that t was opened to outsde world by road and arways. The country s more or less a long rectangular shape. Its total land area s 40,640 sq.km. Tbet s n the north sde of Nepal, Darjeelng and Jalpagur of West Bengal are n the eastern sde. Uttar Pradesh of Inda surrounds western part (F.). The Southern part of Nepal s demarcated by Uttar Pradesh and Bhar, the two states of Inda. Indas strategc land route to Assam, passng between Bangladesh on the south, Skkm and Bhutan on the north, touches the south east corner of Nepal at ths pont ( Jha,984).

3 F. MAP OF NEPAL 2

4 .02 Volume of Nepal Mgraton Varatons n the volume of Nepal mgraton to Inda has been presented n Table.a and Fg F.2. There have been no constant flows of mgrants over the years. Increasng trend (Datta,990) s observed for the perods 90-, 92-3, 95-6, and decreasng trend s noted for the perod 9-2, 93-5, 97-8 and Percentage varaton for 96-7 shows postve trend but low compared to the earler decade Now ths varaton n Nepal mgraton to Inda can be explaned wth the help of varaton n populaton growth of Nepal. From Table.b and fgure F.2 t s clear that Nepal experenced declne n populaton between 9 to 930. Ths declne s caused by (a) heavy casualty of Gorkha troops n the frst World War, (b) hgh ncdence of mortalty due to nfluenza epdemcs of 97 and (c) under-enumeraton n the 920 Census. Apart from the factors stated above, ths declne n populaton growth of Nepal can be attrbuted to the followng facts ---- Many of the Gorkhas were loath to get back to ther hard lfe n the mountans after servng n the army and preferred to work n Inda ether as watchman or n the polce under the government or n any other sutable poston avalable to them (UN,ESCAP,980). The decade 95-6 shows the hghest postve varaton of Nepal mgraton, accompaned by hgh postve varaton n populaton growth of Nepal. Hgh natural ncrease n populaton may provoke the Nepalese to mgrate to neghbourng regon, Inda. Ths fact s partly responsble for the phenomenon. Other reasons can be attrbuted to (a) emgraton of Gorkha troops to jon the Brtsh and Indan armes and (b) absence of those Nepalese who mgrated to Inda to work as porters, labourers and watchman. Hgh populaton growth s observed for the year 96-7, 97-8 and The fgure relatng mgraton to Inda durng these perods also need menton for ts volume, although the decade 97-8 and 98-9 experenced fall n growth, Table.a. Accordng to geographc dstrbuton Nepal s dvded nto 3 regons e.g. mountans and hlls Tera and Kathmandu valley (Table.c). The Kathmandu Valley s the only urban regon n Nepal. The Tara hold most of the cultvated land of Nepal. One pont becomes clear that there s a close relatonshp between Nepal mgraton to Inda and populaton growth of Nepal. Hgh natural growth has added fuel to mgraton to Inda. Ths mgraton s also strengthened by geographcal background of Nepal..03 Populaton of Inda by Place of Brth From Table.3 we can easly dentfy percentage of populaton of Inda who were born n Inda and outsde Inda for the perod The resdent populaton (populaton whose place of brth and place of resdence are dentcal) vares between per cent to 99.2 per cent durng Immgrants to Inda vares between.82 per cent to 2.44 per cent. Out of these mmgrants Nepal mmgrants are very small. About.06 per cent of Indan Populaton reported place of brth as Nepal as per 99 census. 3

5 .04 Sex Rato Sex selectvty n the mgraton process can be dentfed from sex rato of mgrants (Table.4). Preponderance of females(un,980) s observed n rural Inda. In urban Inda female Nepals are very neglgble. A varety of factor determne mgraton of females. These can be broadly classfed nto four groups : () assocaton, (2) marrage, (3) dstress, (4) voluntary. Assocatonal mgraton s meant bascally to accompany the prncpal mgrant who often happens to be chef earnng member of the famly. Women domnate the scenero.. Marrage s the most mportant reason for woman to mgrate n patrlocal socety. It nvolves change of resdence of woman. Martal mgraton has two mportant characterstcs : (a) Mostly t s short dstance phenomenon (b)it nvolves the movement of mostly the women. Dstress female mgraton s often caused by the death of the male partner or deserton by the male spouse. There are dfferent factors of voluntary mgraton ncludng search of employment, for better employment, to take up promoton under transfer or busness contract, for studes, for reason of health, socal ammentes and returnng home. For nvoluntary mgraton economc reasons are the most domnant..05 Growth Rate of Nepal Mgrants An examnaton of the rate of growth of Nepal mgrants for the decades 96-97,97-98, and 98-9 reveals a contrtastng trend (Table.5 and Fg F.3). The nflow n 96 was qute larger compared to 95 resultng sgnfcant growth rate (5.8 per cent). The volume of mmgrants n 97 has decelerated compared to prevous census reflectng a fall n growth rate. But durng 97-8 and 98-9 the volume of mmgrants have fallen sgnfcantly so that there has been a drastc reducton showng even negatve growth rate. Most Nepalese beng not sklled n any trade are commonly absorbed n prmary sector of rural areas. Due to dmnshng scope of employment n ths sector t mght be that they mmgrated by smaller number and. To substantate ths we may quote as follows: mgraton s an mportant phenomenon n Nepal. Emgraton has generally been temporary and n the past nvolved a large number of people especally of the depressed communtes, who mgrate seasonally to Inda n search of jobs and for trade to supplement the famly ncome from agrculture, handcrafts, lvestocks and herd rasng [UN, ESCAP,980]. 4

6 .06 Mgraton by duraton and cohorts From the nformaton on mgrants by duraton and resdence, one can determne mgraton cohorts (UN, 970). Mgraton fgures by duraton of resdence gve nformaton on tmng of last move of mgrants. Based on data on place of last resdence, Nepal mgrants are classfed by duraton of resdence n Inda where they were enumerated durng 99,98 and 97 census cohorts. Here mgrants are specfed by ther respectve cohorts. A "mgrant cohort " refers to group of mgrants of a specfc perod. The duraton of resdence can be expressed n tme perods of mgraton as llustrated below for 99 census. duraton of resdence (n years) perod of mgraton less than one before 97 Nepal mgrants by sex and cohorts, based on 97, 98 and 99 census data have been presented n Table.6. The table provdes movements of Nepal mgrants to Inda n retrospect. Cohort study shows that,6 male Nepalese mmgrated to rural Inda durng990-9, whereas 6,875 males moved to urban Inda for the same perod. Male Nepalese have more urban bas for the perod , , respectvely, as s reflected from the volume of mgrants. But predomnance of females s observed n rural areas of Inda for the duraton years987-90, , The same s true for mgraton cohort based on 97 and 98censuses. Studes from dfferent countres pont out that there s no unform law regardng the selectvty of rural urban mgraton n terms of sex. Brown (Brown, 970) showed that women predomnate n Latn Amerca, whle men are domnant n Asa and Afrca. Cohort study hghlghts the nature of mgraton. Three types of mgraton can be shown n ths respect. One s temporary or seasonal as s reflected from or cohort. Second type of mgraton to Inda can be categorsed as sem-permanant. Mgrants of duraton 5 years or more can be treated as sem-permanant. The emgrants of Nepal absorbed n Indan army are ncluded n ths category (Poffenberger, 980). They were recruted n "Gorkha" regments of the Brtsh army and ths recrutment contnued throughout the 920s and 930s. After ndependence and partton of Inda the hll people of Nepal specally created "Gorkha" regment of Indan army. 5

7 Another type of Nepal mgraton to Inda s permanent mgraton. The duraton of resdence ten years or more may be taken under ths category. The most mportant reason of ths type of mgraton s marrage. Besdes the landless poor people of hll area are also vctm of permanent mgraton. Havng no bndngs they permanently settle for long run n Inda, wth ther full famly. Emgrated Nepalese go drectly to hll staton or a cty and search for job wth the help of permanently settled Nepalese n Inda..07 Factors Motvatng Mgraton Factors motvatng mgraton are complex and nterwned. Motves for mgraton are frequently multple. People move for combnaton of several reasons and often they are not aware of all the forces motvatng ther move. One factor that predomnates n explanng cause of mgraton s push-pull (Datta,996). Motvaton for mgraton can be explaned by mechancal metaphors centrfugal and centrpetal forces. The centrfugal mpulse does not have strong effect f the centrpetal mpulse s weak. Push factors attrbute to the negatve characterstcs operatng at the centre of orgn, whereas pull factors dentfy the postve characterstcs at the centre of destnaton. It appears that economc opportuntes (Datta,985) n terms of job avalablty n prmary, secondary and tertary sectors of Inda worked as centrpetal force for Nepalese. Such a centrpetal force has been strengthened by centrfugal force whch arses due to low level of economc development n Nepal and has possbly caused Nepal mgraton to Inda. Nepal s predomnantly an agrcultural economy. The agrcultural sector employs about 90 per cent of countres labour force and contrbutes to nearly 68 per cent of gross domestc product (UN,ESCAP, 980). In recent past the performance of agrcultural sector has been very poor for several reasons. () The terraced slopes of the hlls, where crops were used to be grown earler, are now nhabted by bulk of Nepalese, (2) Shortage of agrcultural credt and lack of mproved fertlsers create handc handcap for agrcultural development. Between 960 and 970 food gran ncreased by only per cent, beng the half of the ncrease of populaton. Ths has resulted n reducton of per capta avalablty of food. Besdes low ncome assocated wth agrcultural under-employment (ILO, 974) and hgh populaton growth led to a reduced per capta ncome. The ndustral sector s also not well developed. Besdes lack of nfrastructural facltes, and a modern technology, ts development s constraned by lmted nternal market. Durng 952-7, populaton of Nepal s ncreased by almost 3.3 mllon, about.2 mllon n the frst nne years and 2. mllon n the next ten years. The annual growth rate of populaton was.7 per cent durng to 96, whch ncreased to 2. per cent durng The hgh densty of populaton and ts growth n Nepal mply contnued pressure of populaton on land. 6

8 Ths very basc features of underdevelopment of Nepal's economy worked as centrfugal forces and pushed the Nepalese out of ther orgn and attracted to states of Inda whch were more adjacent to Nepal and offered much more economc opportuntes compared to Nepal. Hgher fertlty, lower lteracy and expectaton of lfe at brth, hgher densty and greater share of state domestc product n the prmary sector n Nepal compared to Inda pnpont that unfavourable soco-demographc and econo-demographc condton exst n Nepal and centrfugal forces are operatng there, though not as strongly as n the past..08 Some Estmates of Nepal Mgraton.08a Fresh Mgraton Rate In ths secton we would lke to focuss attenton on the mpact of Nepal mgraton on the populaton growth of Inda. Populaton growth between two census dates for any geographcal area can be decomposed nto two parts. (a) Natural ncrease (brth n excess of death) and (b) ncrease or decrease n populaton growth due to mgratory movement. If any geographc area s closed one t wll experence no mpact of mgraton. But n real world such area s never found n practce. So where populaton s not closed problem arses n measurng the mpact of mgraton. The proporton of mgrants to total populaton at any pont of tme s the cumulatve effect of past mgraton. If the proportons of mgrants to total populaton are known at two successve census years ther dfference could ndcate fresh mgraton rate ( Guha Roy & Datta,995). Ths can be formulated n the followng way : Let P I-, P = populaton (observed) of Inda at( -)th and ()th census. M -, M = Nepal mmgraton at (-)th and th census respectvely. th m -, m = proporton of mgrants to the resdent populaton n the (-)th and census 7

9 r = natural ncrease (exponental) of populaton r / = r + R, R = fresh mgraton rate We have, 8 = M p M p r e ) ( ) ( = P M P P M P ).( = m m P P log log + = e e m m P P r log + = e m m r e m m r r = log e m m R = log

10 It follows that m and m - approaches each other from one census to another, the fresh mgraton rate tends to become smaller. Two condtons can be mposed for R to be postve and negatve. Ths can be explaned n the followng way. m ( a) + R log e > m 0 m > m ( m ) > ( m ) m > m m < m.e. the proporton of mmgrants to total populaton n the frst census should be less than the proporton of mmgrants to total populaton n the second census for R to be postve 2

11 m ( b) R log < e m 0 ( m ) < ( m ) ( m ) < m ( m ) < ( m ) m > m.e. proporton of mmgrants to total populaton n the frst census should be greater than proporton of mmgrants to total populaton n the second census for R to be negatve. The mpact of Nepal fresh mgraton has been represented n Table.7 from The fresh Nepal mgraton rate ether postve or negatve s very very small ndeed. It has very lttle mpact on populaton growth of Inda. R s postve for 9-2 and 95-6, and t s negatve for 90-, 92-3, 93-5, 96-7, and 97-8,98-9 respectvely. Negatve R mples m - s greater than m for these years. Smlarly R takes postve values for 9-2 and 95-6 because m - s less than m. It s observed that unlke large mgraton stream from East Pakstan (now Bangladesh) at a tme, the mgrants from Nepal appear to enter n small groups. As R s small r and r / are nearly the same. 3

12 .08b Annual Estmates of Nepal Mgrants Annual estmaton of mgraton s of crucal mportance, as because census provdes mgraton data by decennal year. Mgraton by ndvdual years s more frutful for formulaton of mgraton polcy. The data on mgraton gven by duraton group n census reports can be dsaggregated nto sngle years of duraton by applcaton of structural graduaton model (Dasgupta, 965 ; Guha Roy, 986 ). log 0 t Mx = α(t) + β(t). X + χ(t). X 2 where M X = number of mgrants n duraton X t X = year of estmaton = ndvdual duraton α, β, χ = parameters to be estmated. The ft can be made exact by usng two equatons n two unknowns. In the census publcaton, the duraton of stay s grouped dfferently as -4, 5-9 and 0-9; we have not consdered termnal and open ended duraton groups (e.g. less than one year and more than 9 years) for the purpose of estmaton. The values of the parameters α(t), β(t) and χ(t) for any t may be obtaned from the mgrants at the ndvdual duraton 2.5, 7.0 and 4.5, approxmate md ponts of -4, 5-9, 0-9 for 98and 99 respectvely. The number of mgrants at these duraton groups are taken as length of duraton tmes the number of mgrants at these ndvdual duratons. The errors ntroduced n the estmaton are substantally adjusted by proratng the estmated mgrants for ndvdual duraton by the gven grouped data. The only two equatons (for each year) that arse for estmaton of the parameters are : log 0 M 25 = log 0 M 0 log 0 M 4.5 = log 0 M 0-4.5β χ + 7.5β χ where M 0 refers to duraton of 7 years ( md pont of 5-9 years) of resdence taken as orgn. The values of the parameters are shown n Table.8a. It appears that parametrc values for rural and urban areas and for both sexes are often too dfferent to permt one set of values for each. We thus here use both sets of values for the purpose of dsaggregaton of mgrants by ndvdual duraton. Annual estmates of Nepal mgrants for the perod to are shown n Table.8b. Values of parameters based on 99 census have been presented n table.9a. Annual estmates of Nepal mgrants precedng 99( based on duraton on resdence as observed n 99 census) are shown n table.9b and Fgure F.4. 4

13 From table.8b and.9b one can ndcate about the nature of mgraton by sex. It can roughly be nferred that females are much more lkely to be permanent or long term mgrants, whereas males come for shorter duraton. The lower numbers of males at earler dates n table.8b and table.9b mply that most have returned. The much hgher numbers of females compared to male at earler dates may be attrbuted to lower rate of female return mgraton. It s beleved that the structural model may not provde realstc estmates of mgrants from year to year, but allows dsaggregaton of overall decadal mgrants to gve average annual estmates of mgrants. These annual estmates also reveal that rural-urban dfferental exsts n the mgraton process. Females have rural bas whereas male reflects preference for urban areas. Ths fact supports the earler fndng regardng rural-urban and sex dfferental. Two ponts can be mentoned here wth respect to the ftted curve. () Reported census data are obvously rregular. By fttng a mathematcal curve these rregulartes are to a great extent removed and an explct trend emerges. (2) The slow ncreasng trend s concealed n the ten year aggregate data. The estmated ndvdual-year fgures, though not absolutely true, thus reveal the underlyng trend of mgraton..08c Return Mgraton In ths secton we try to estmate, approxmately, the extent of Nepal mgraton from Inda durng 97-8 and We have prepared a cohort of mgrant for 962-7, on the bass of 97 census data. The cohort sze of 962-7, as observed n 97 would be subject to depleton under the nfluence of mortalty factor. But the death rates of these mgrants are not exactly known. We have alternatvely used death rates of general populaton resdng n Nepal durng the perod under consderaton. Ths s based on the assumpton that demographc behavour of Nepal mgrants n Inda would be smlar to that of ther populaton of orgn rather than that populaton of destnaton, atleast n the ntal phases of ther stay n recevng countres. Moreover n ther prmary unsettled condton, these mgrants would not probably attan the low level of vtal rates of place of destnaton. In 976, the md-year of 97-8, Nepal had a death rate of 22 approxmately. On the consderaton that reported mortalty level n the decade had not changed much and the year to year rate not avalable we assumed a constant rate for the perod. The procedure for estmatng deaths to mgrants over the decade 97-8 may be stated as follows. Let M be the sze of the cohort of (962-7) of Nepal mmgrants n 97. The constant death rate s d. We have, M X d = D 5

14 where, D s the number of deaths n the frst year and M - D = S the number of survvors among the mmgrants at the end of frst year. In the begnnng of the second year we start wth S number of mmgrants, who survved up to the begnnng of the second year and are subjected to death rate. Thus, S X d = D 2 where D2 s the number of deaths n the second year and S - D 2 = S 2 the number of mmgrants survvng at the end of second year. Followng ths rule we obtan n general, S - - D = S Further f D denotes total deaths that occurred over the decade among mmgrants, then, D = M - S In otherwords, the expected reduced sze of the cohort of mmgrants would be, S = M - D n 98. Ths estmate s compared wth actually observed sze n 98 as derved from the duraton of resdence group 0-9 years. The excess of S, the 96-7 mgrant cohort as observed n 98, gves the extent of Nepal return mgrants from cohort. Ths s shown n Table 2., whereas about 30% of Nepal mmgrants returned ether to Nepal or to places other than West Bengal, only about 6% female mmgrants dd so over the perod. It s possble that greater number of females than males settle here through nter communty marrage. In a smlar way a mgrant cohort of based on 98 census data has been bult up. Ths cohort would deplete durng 98-9 due to death of some of them. We have crude death rate for Nepal populaton for 982 and 987. Snce actual death rate s not known we have estmated crude death rate of Nepal populaton for 985 usng lnear nterpolaton. Snce death rate for male and female Nepal populaton s not known, number of death for total Nepal populaton durng 98-9 has been estmated usng the methodology descrbed above. 6

15 Approxmate estmate of return mgrants has been presented n Table2.2. About 32% of the Nepal mgrants returned ether to Nepal or elsewhere other than Inda..09 Concluson It s observed that there have been varatons n the number of Nepal mgrants over the years. Increasng trend s noted for the perod 90-, 92-3, 95-6 and decreasng trend s found for the perod 9-2, 93-5, 97-8 and Inda has a very large populaton-base. It s thus not surprsng that only.06 per cent of Indan populaton reported place of brth as Nepal n 99 census. Preponderence of Nepal females s observed n rural Inda. No unform pcture of growth rate for varous states durng 95-6 and 96-7 s observed. Cohort study hghlghts the nature of mgraton from Nepal to Inda. Three types of mgraton can be shown n ths respect. One s temporary or seasonal as s observed from or Second type of mgrants of duraton 5 years or more can be treated as sem permanent. The thrd type of Nepal mgraton to Inda s permanent. Land-less poor people of hll areas of Nepal belong to the category of perrmanent mgraton. Some basc features of underdevelopment of Nepal's economy worked as centrfugal forces and pushed the Nepalese out of ther orgn and attracted to states of Inda whch offered much more economc opportuntes compared to Nepal. It s observed from fresh mgraton rate that mgrants from Nepal appear to move n small groups. The fresh mgraton rate, ether postve or negatve, s very small ndeed. Annual flow estmated by usng structural graduaton model reflects a slow ncreasng trend. By fttng a mathematcal curve rregulartes of census data are to a great extent removed and an explct trend emerges. These annual estmates reveal that rural-urban dfferental exsts n mgraton process. Estmates of return mgraton as per 99 census pont out that about 32 per cent of Nepal mgrnts returned ether to Nepal or elsewhere other than Inda. 7

16 REFERENCES. Brown, L.A. and Moore,E.G.,(970), The nfra-urban Mgraton Process : a perspectve. General System, 5, Dasgupta, Ajt, et.al. (965) Populaton perspectve of Thland, Sankhya Vol.B Datta, Pranat(985), Inter State Mgraton n Inda. Margn. October. 4. Datta,P. (990), Nepal Mgrants n Inda, paper presented at the XIV Annual Conferrence of the Indan Assocaton for the Study of Populaton (IASP), December 990, Udapur. 5. Datta, Pranat(996), Inter State Mgraton n Inda, Indan Journal of Regonal Scence, Vol.28, no Guha, Roy S.(986), Estmaton of demographc parameters for Inda, Monograph Indan Statstcal Insttute, Calcutta. 7. Guha, Roy S. and Datta, P. (995), Nepal Mgraton to West Bengal, Demography Inda, Vol.24, No.2, pp Internatonal Labour Organsaton, (974) The Challenge for Nepal: Growth wth Employment (A msson report by Asan Regonal Team for Employment Promoton). 9. Jha, Har Bansh.(984) Resource Moblsaton and Economc Development n Nepal durng the plan perod, Ktab Mahal Allahabad, pp. 9 & Poffeenberger, Mark (980), Patterns of change n the Nepal Hmalaya. The Macmllan Company of Inda lmted, Madras, pp Unted Natons, (970) Methods of Measurng Internal Mgraton Manual VI New York, ST/ SOA/ A Unted Natons (980), Dept. of Internatonal Economc and Socal Affars, Patterns of urban and rural populaton growth, Populaton Studes No.68, pp Unted Natons (970) Methods of Measurng Internal Mgraton, manual VI, New York, ST/ SOA/ A47. 8

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18 TABLES Table.a : Varaton n the number of mgrants from Nepal to Inda : Year Number of Nepal Mgrants Varaton Percentage Varaton Sources: For Davs, Kngsley, The populaton of Inda and Pakstan, Prnceton Unversty, New Jersy, Prnceton Unversty Press, 95, pp ) Census of Inda, 95, vol., Inda, Part II A, Demographc Tables. 2) Census of Inda, 96, Vol., Inda Part IIC (), Mgraton Tables. 3) Census of Inda, 97, Seres, Inda, Part II D (), Mgraton Tables. 4) Census of Inda, 98, Seres, Inda, Part V A&B (), Mgraton. 5) Census of Inda,99, Floppes. N.B.: For 94 data not avalable. 0

19 NO OF MIGRANTS FIG. F.2 TRENDS OF NEPALI MIGRATION IN INDIA no of Nepal mgrants YEAR

20 Table.b: Populaton growth n Nepal durng 9-99 Year Populaton Varaton Percentage of Varaton Sources : Upto 97, Pers Blake, John Cameron & Davd Seddon : Nepal n crss - growth and stagnaton n the Perphery, Oxford Unversty Press, Delh, 980, pp for 98, Jha, Dr. Har Bansh. Resource moblsaton and economc development n Nepal durng the plan perod, Ktab Mahal, Allahabad, 984, p.-9, for 99, Demographc Year Book 993, UN, New York, 995. p.35 Table.c: Dstrbuton of area and populaton of Nepal accordng to geographc regon n 96 Regon area km. 2 % of total area Populaton % of total populaton Densty per Sq. km. Nepal Mountan & hlls Tera Kathmandu Valley Source: Central Bureau of Statstcs, Kathmandu 2

21 Table.2 : Volume of Nepal mgrants n Inda : (based on place of brth ) Sex All Inda Person Male Female Rural Inda person n.a male n.a female n.a Urban Inda person n.a male n.a female n.a n.a : not avalable Source : Varous census reports. 3

22 Place of brth Table.3 : Percentage dstrbuton of populaton of Inda by place of brth and present place of resdence :95-99 Total Rural Urban person male female person male Female person male female 95 Total populaton born n : (A) Inda (B) outsde Inda () Nepal Not avalable Total populaton born n : (A) Inda (B) outsde Inda () Nepal Total populaton born n : (A) Inda (B) outsde Inda () Nepal Total populaton born n : (A) Inda (B) outsde Inda () Nepal a Total populaton born (A) Inda (B) outsde Inda () Nepal Place of resdence n Inda means place of enumeraton. atotal ncludes unclassfable

23 5 Table.4 : Sex rato* of Nepal mgrants n Inda :95-9 year rural urban all Inda 95 n.a n.a * Sex rato s defned here as the number of females per,000 males Table.5: Exponental growth rate (%) of Nepal Mgrants : Year Total Male Female n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

24 FIG..3 : Growth rate of Nepal mgrants : 90-9 Growth rate Year 6

25 Table.6 : Nepal mgrants by sex, duraton and cohorts : 97, 98 and99 Duraton of Resdence n Inda Perod of Mgraton no. of male (m) mgrants no. of female (f) mgrants no. of mgrants (m+f) rural Urban Total rural urban total rural urban total Census : 99 less than year years years years Before Census : 98 less than year years years years Before Census : 97 7

26 less than year years years years Before Sources: Varous Census Reports and Floppes. Table.7 : Estmates of Intercensal fresh mgraton rate : Year Populaton of Inda (P ) Nepal mgrants to Inda (M ) m=m/p r / = r + R R

27 Table.8a : Values of ndvdual duraton parameters (based on 98 census data) Parameter Sex Rural Urban α(t) Male Female β(t) Male Female χ(t) Male Female

28 Table.8b : Annual estmates of Nepal mgrants preceedng 98 (based on duraton of resdence, 98 census) Year of Mgraton male female Total urban rural urban rural Table.9a : Values of ndvdual duraton parameters : (based on 99 Census data) Parameter sex rural urban α(t) male female β(t) male female χ(t) male female

29 Table.9b : Annual estmates of Nepal mgrants preceedng 99 : based on duraton of resdence, 99 Census) year of mgraton male female total urban rural urban rural

30 Fg. F.4 Annual Estmated Flow of Nepal M grants n Inda precedng No. of Mgrants Male Urban Male Rural Female Urban Female Rural Total Year of M graton 22

31 Table 2. : Approxmate estmates of Nepal return Mgrants from Inda n 98 from amongst cohorts of Nepal Immgrants Sl.no. Item Male Female Total Sze of cohort n Assumed crude death rate of Nepal Mgrants n 976 per 000 populaton 3 Estmated number of deaths among cohort durng Expected sze of cohort n ()-(3) 5 Observed sze of cohort 52455(a) Estmated return mgraton Note : nflated M e 8 n (a) Sze of (35684) male cohort as observed n 98 was By rato.47; the rato was obtaned from M e 8 / M0 8, where was estmated on lnear assumpton. Cohorts of observed 98 are based on data on 5% sample. Source : Census of Inda, 98, Seres Inda Part Va and B(), Mgraton Table. ReportTables based on 5% sample data M e 8 = estmated Nepal mgrants for 98. M 0 8 = observed Nepal mgrants for

32 Table2.2 : Approxmate estmates of Nepal return Mgrants from Inda n 99 from amongst cohorts of Nepal Immgrants. Sl.No. tem Persons Sze of cohort n Assumed crude death rate of Nepal mgrants n per 000 populaton a 3 Estmated number of deaths among cohort durng Expected sze of cohort n () - (3) 5 Observed sze of cohorts n Estmated return mgraton (4) - (5) a Crude Death Rate estmated by lnear nterpolaton 24