The Total Solar Irradiance Record and Its Continuity ACRIM SCIENCE TEAM
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1 The Total Solar Irradiance Record and Its Continuity ACRIM Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor Experiments ACRIM SCIENCE TEAM Dr. Richard C. Willson Principal Investigator Columbia University ACRIM INSTRUMENT TEAM Roger S. Helizon ACRIMSAT Project Mgr. Jet Propulsion Laboratory ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 1
2 The Precision precision TSI record spans ½ years Overlapping Redundancy experiments and overlap make make a precise a precise composite TSI TSI record record possible possible Composite TSI TSI traceability ~ +/- traceable 100 ppm end-to-end ~ 100 ppm end-to-end Systematic metrology errors errors caused caused early early scale scale differences SI uncertainty SI of ACRIM2, of ACRIM2, ACRIM3, VIRGO and VIRGO and TIM ~ ~ % Cause SORCE/TIM s of ACRIM3/VIRGO 0.4 % scale TIM difference 0.4 % scale not difference currently unknown understood GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 2
3 Rationale for a Climate Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) database Climate change issues related to TSI variability The relative significance of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing has yet to be determined Climate response to TSI variability is not well understood Climate models of TSI forcing have large uncertainties The TSI variability database on climate time scales (> decades) has just begun TSI variation has been a significant forcing for climate change during the industrial era Phenomenological analysis indicates ~ 50 % of global warming caused by TSI increase Solar activity indices and Earth surface temperature anomalies correlate with TSI variability Historical evidence indicates a direct relationship between climate change and TSI variation Sustained TSI decreases ~ 0.25 % were likely causes of the little ice age (~ ) A comparable TSI increase was the likely cause of the medieval warm optimum (~ ) A climate TSI record must have ~500 ppm/century resolution to detect this signal GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 3
4 Monitoring Strategy for a TSI Climate Change Database How to provide a TSI record with calibration traceability better than ~500 ppm/century The SI uncertainty of TSI monitoring instrumentation is inadequate (not significantly < 1000 ppm) The measurement precision of current technology is adequate (ACRIM3: ~3 ppm/yr) Overlapping experiments are required to provide the record using measurement precision Traceability is transferred between successive experiments through overlapping comparisons At least a year of overlap required to provide maximum scale traceability Redundant experiments are required to prevent database interruption by satellite or instrument failures A redundant, overlap monitoring strategy using existing flight instrumentation is the only approach currently capable of providing a TSI database for climate change on centennial time scales with useful traceability GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 4
5 Comparison of ACRIM3, VIRGO and TIM OBSERVATIONS GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 5
6 ACRIM Degradation Calibrations GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 6
7 GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 7
8 GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 8
9 * JPL Table Mtn. Solar Test Facility GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 9
10 ACRIM Gap Comparisons GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 10
11 GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 11
12 The Total Solar Irradiance Record and Its Continuity ACRIM Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor Experiments ACRIM SCIENCE TEAM Dr. Richard C. Willson Principal Investigator Columbia University ACRIM INSTRUMENT TEAM Roger S. Helizon ACRIMSAT Project Mgr. Jet Propulsion Laboratory ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 GC42A Dec. 13, 2007 Richard C. Willson - Columbia University 12
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