The 2009 «indian summer» of world economy

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "The 2009 «indian summer» of world economy"

Gerard Golden
6 years ago
Views:

1 The 2009 «indian summer» of world economy CyclOpe European leading research Institute on commodity markets Professeur Philippe Chalmin September 2009

2 September 2009 Sun shines again. on equity markets. on commodities. for the real economy. thanks to emerging countries. and US out of recession Spring or Indian Summer?

3 World equity markets are betting for the end of recession 180 MONDE (39 Places) en dollar

4 And it s especially true in Shanghai 400 (Shanghai B =100) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

5 Same story for commodities 500 janvier 1988 =

6 Back to their 2007 level janvier 1988 = 100 Ensemble hors métaux précieux et pétrole Ensemble y c. métaux précieux et pétrole J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

7 Thanks to a weakening US dollar 1 =... $ J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

8 Oil back at $ 72.5 a barrel (August average) 130 en $ par baril PETROLE BRUT (Brent 1er terme)

9 Thanks to some discipline by OPEP, Nigerian problems and demand en $ par baril (Brent 1er terme) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

10 Non ferrous metals are up too janvier 1988 = J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

11 Like copper en $ par tonne (LME au comptant) 3000 CUIVRE

12 Thanks to China and some good news from USA en $ par tonne (LME au comptant) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

13 Steel prices are still low but with a better ratio of capacity utilisation ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE PRICE (US $/tonne)

14 Wheat «suffers» from very good 2009 crop Euros par quintal Cours mondial (Chicago) Prix de marché (France)

15 But soybeans benefit of Chinese demand $ par boisseau (prix au comptant) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

16 And sugar was the summer s star cents de $ par livre

17 Dry bulk rates have rebounded 1000 au 4 janvier INDICE BFI/BDI

18 Thanks to Chinese demand for Capesize 1000 au 4 janvier INDICE BFI/BDI J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

19 . World economy is right now out of recession. thanks to some emerging countries. but not all. China Q %. India Q2 + 6,1 %. Russia Q2-10,9 %

20 Chinese industrial production is back on its 10 % a year path : more than 50 millions tonnes of steel produced in july! China : Industrial Production 25 Variations sur un an en % (mm3)

21 In the US, the worst of the real estate crisis seems over : prices are rising again U.S. : Construction 2300 Milliers par an

22 The economy loses less jobs U.S. : Job creation Non agricultural sector 600 Milliers

23 And the ISM index (52.9 on August 31) is back towards expansion U.S. : ISM Manufacturing index 65 %

24 In Europe, German entrepreneurs are slightly more optimistic Germany : IFO Survey Business climate =

25 And French house holds are more doubt ful France : consumer confidence 10 (soldes des réponses en %)

26 GDP grorwth in the second quartet go :. from the best China India to average Germany + 1 France + 1 Japan United States - 1. bad United King dom Italy - 6. and the worst Russia Mexico - 11 Estonia Latvia Lituania

27 What to expect :. Spring. Growth in China and India. US gets out of recession in Q3. Oil at $ 70 is a gift for producing countries. The end of the financial crisis?. Winter. Europe : so much unemployment. Public deficits : who pays?. A weak dollar. Transition economies in crisis A real Indian summer : world economy is out of recession but recovery will be a long and painful process.

28 What to expect :. Spring. Growth in China and India. US gets out of recession in Q3. Oil at $ 70 is a gift for producing countries. The end of the financial crisis?. Winter. Europe : so much unemployment. Public deficits : who pays?. A weak dollar. Transition economies in crisis A real Indian summer : world economy is out of recession but recovery will be a long and painful process.

29 What to expect :. Spring. Growth in China and India. US gets out of recession in Q3. Oil at $ 70 is a gift for producing countries. The end of the financial crisis?. Winter. Europe : so much unemployment. Public deficits : who pays?. A weak dollar. Transition economies in crisis A real Indian summer : world economy is out of recession but recovery will be a long and painful process.

CyclOpe. The 2009 «indian summer» of world economy. Professeur Philippe Chalmin September 2009

CyclOpe. The 2009 «indian summer» of world economy. Professeur Philippe Chalmin September 2009 The 2009 «indian summer» of world economy European leading research Institute on commodity markets www.cercle-cyclope.com Professeur Philippe Chalmin September 2009 philippe.chalmin@dauphine.fr September