Capital Planning Retreat Economic Outlook Alan E. Maguire

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1 Capital Planning Retreat Economic Outlook Alan E. Maguire Chandler-Gilbert Estrella Mountain GateWay Glendale Mesa Paradise Valley Phoenix Rio Salado Scottsdale South Mountain

2 Economic Outlook Where are we going? US Economy in the Global Economy Arizona Economy in the US Economy Pertinent Prospects

3 Economic Outlook Where are we going? US Economy in the Global Economy Arizona Economy in the US Economy Drivers of Economic Growth

4 Economic Outlook Where are we going? US Economy in the Global Economy Arizona Economy in the US Economy Pertinent Prospects

5 US Economic Outlook US Economy in the Global Economy How We Got Here The Current Context The Outlook Long-Term Trends Lessons from the Past

6 US Economic Outlook How We Got Here Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it. -- Edmund Burke End of the Great Moderation Federally Induced Housing Bubble Easy Money Postponed Shallow Recession

7 US Economic Outlook The Current Context Current Conditions Gross Domestic Product Trends Employment Trends Current Challenges

8 US Economic Outlook The Current Context Cyclical Recession Over Since Mid 2009 Relatively Short Recession in GDP Terms, but Deep US Financial Crisis Has Been Contained Some Major Issues to Clean-up Fannie, Freddie, Privates So,.

9 US Economic Outlook The Current Context Stagnant Growth for Recovery period Historical Recovery Drivers Missing Remnants of Double Whammy Remain International Issues Consumer Mortgage Debt / Other Debt Overhanging Housing Supply Battered Consumer Confidence

10 US Economic Outlook US GDP Quarterly Change * GDP Recessions -8.0

11 US Economic Outlook US GDP Quarterly Change * GDP Recoveries -8.0

12 US Economic Outlook US GDP Quarterly Change * GDP

13 US Economic Outlook US GDP Quarterly Change * GDP

14 US Economic Outlook US GDP Quarterly Change GDP ??

15 US Economic Outlook US Employment % Change from Prior Year Employment * Recoveries -8.0

16 8.0 US Economic Outlook US Employment % Change from Prior Year Employment Growth Total Employment

17 US Economic Outlook The Outlook Near Term Substantial Deterrents to Growth & Investment International Issues Especially Europe Collapsing EU Fiscal / Banking Systems Weak Demand Scared Consumers & CEOs Continuing Uncertainty! Expectations of Rising US Taxes- Fiscal Cliff Structural Workforce Issues

18 US Economic Outlook

19 US Economic Outlook

20 US Economic Outlook

21 US Economic Outlook Long Term Trends Worldwide Demand Issues Europe s Issues Japan s Issues High Debt and Pending Liquidation Asia s Cultural / Governmental Challenges America Alone? -- Again?

22 US Economic Outlook Long Term Trends America s Challenges and Prospects Massive and Growing Federal Fiscal Crisis Demographic Trends Labor Force Skills Gap Loss of Mid-skill Employment

23 US Economic Outlook Long Term Trends America s Challenges and Prospects Strong, Agile Markets Tradition of Productivity Fully Developed Infrastructure Finest Higher Education System Highest Caliber Rule of Law

24 Economic Outlook Where are we going? US Economy in the Global Economy Arizona Economy in the US Economy Pertinent Prospects

25 AZ Economic Outlook AZ Economy in the US Economy The Current Context The Outlook Long-Term Trends Lessons from the Past

26 AZ Economic Outlook The Current Context Recent AZ Employment Trends Current Challenges

27 AZ Economic Outlook * 2,800 2,600 All Industries 2,400 2,200 2,

28 AZ Economic Outlook * 2, ,600 Construction 220 2,400 Manufacturing 180 2,200 All Industries 140 2,

29 AZ Economic Outlook * 2, ,600 Construction 220 2,400 Manufacturing 180 2,200 All Industries 140 2,

30 AZ Economic Outlook * 2,800 2,600 All Industries 300,000 jobs 2,400 2,200 2,

31 AZ Economic Outlook * 2,800 2,600 All Industries 2,400 65,000 jobs 75,000 PRIVATE jobs 2,200 2,

32 AZ Economic Outlook The Current AZ Context Still Challenging US Conditions Continuing Uncertainty Nationally / Globally Positive AZ Trends

33 AZ Economic Outlook The Current AZ Context Returning to Government Fiscal Balance Above National Average Job Growth Rates Benefit of Building from a Low Base Beware of the Illusion of Recovery

34 AZ Economic Outlook The AZ Outlook Substantial Drags and Risks Still Exist Historic Drivers Are Weak Not Like Historical Patterns

35 AZ Economic Outlook The Good AZ News 5th in Job Growth From 49 th! 70,000 + jobs added since June 2010 Retail Spending Rising (Autos, Durables) Az Retail Sales up about 6% Outlook Hopeful, but Concerned Arizona Recovery Underway (Overhanging Risk)

36 AZ Economic Outlook The AZ Outlook Expect Very Slow, but Positive Growth Existing Capacity Available for Growth -- Without Capital Spending -- With Little New Hiring Still Strong Fundamentals in Arizona Positive Business and Social Climates We Are Not California!!!

37 AZ Economic Outlook AZ Long Term Trends More Integrated Economically Not just the Five C s anymore More Dependent on US / Global Economies Same Core Challenges as US Labor Force Issues Global Demand Constraints

38 Economic Outlook Where are we going? US Economy in the Global Economy Arizona Economy in the US Economy Pertinent Prospects

39 Economic Outlook Pertinent Prospects Business Investment and Human Productivity Disposable Incomes and Consumer Spending Population Growth

40 Economic Outlook Pertinent Prospects Business Investment and Productivity Continuing Transition of Mechanization Increasing Skills Increasing Returns to Factors of Production Especially Labor Positive Impacts on Human Productivity Higher Productivity Increases Incomes

41 Economic Outlook Pertinent Prospects Rising Incomes Higher Productivity Increases Incomes Rising Incomes and Standards of Living Rising Incomes Drive Consumer Spending Consumer Spending Drives Economic Growth

42 Economic Outlook Population Growth Employment Drives Population Population Growth Drives Production and Demand Demand Drives Further Expansion and Employment

43 Economic Outlook Waiting for Recovery Need Stronger Demand Need Stronger Employment Growth Need Stronger Population Growth

44 The Bottom Line

45 Capital Planning Retreat Economic Outlook Alan E. Maguire Chandler-Gilbert Estrella Mountain GateWay Glendale Mesa Paradise Valley Phoenix Rio Salado Scottsdale South Mountain

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