# Section A Calculating Probabilities & Listing Outcomes Grade F D

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1 Name: Teacher Assessment Section A Calculating Probabilities & Listing Outcomes Grade F D 1. A fair ordinary six-sided dice is thrown once. The boxes show some of the possible outcomes. Draw a line from each box in column A to the box in column B which has the same probability. Column A Throwing a six Column B Throwing an even number Throwing a two or a three Throwing a one Throwing an odd number Throwing a four or a five (Total 3 marks) 2. Susan and Jill play a game. Susan has a box containing 3 red, 4 yellow and 2 blue counters. She picks a counter at random. What is the probability that Susan picks a yellow counter? Answer... Jill has a box containing 18 counters of which 8 are yellow. She picks a counter at random. What is the probability that Jill does not pick a yellow counter? Answer... (c) Who is more likely to pick a yellow counter? Tick the correct box.explain your answer. Susan Jill Neither Explanation.... (Total 6 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 1

2 3. In a raffle 200 tickets are sold. There is only one prize. Mr Key buys 10 tickets. Mrs Key buys 6 tickets. Their children, Robert and Rachel, buy 2 tickets each. Which member of the family has the best chance of winning the prize? Give a reason for your answer... What is the probability that Mrs Key wins the prize?. Answer... (c) What is the probability that none of the family wins the prize?.. Answer... (Total 7 marks) 4. A bag contains blue, red and green cards only. One card is taken at random from the bag. The table shows the probabilities of taking a blue card and a red card. Colour Blue Red Green What is the probability of taking a yellow card from the bag? Answer... What is the probability of taking a card that is not blue from the bag? Answer... (c) Complete the table to show the probability of taking a green card from the bag. (Total 3 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 2

3 5. Sarah is playing a game with a fair coin and a fair six-sided dice. She spins the coin and then throws the dice. If the coin shows heads Sarah s score is 1 more than the number shown on the dice. If the coin shows tails Sarah s score is 2 less than the number shown on the dice. Complete the table to show all possible scores. Dice Coin Heads 5 Tails 1 Work out the probability that Sarah s score is (i) negative Answer... (ii) more than 3. Answer... (Total 5 marks) Success: Target: St Paul s Catholic School 3

4 Teacher Assessment Section B Relative Frequency and Expectation Grade F C 1. A dice is suspected of bias. Here are the results of 20 throws Use these results to calculate the relative frequency of each score.... Score Relative frequency Use the relative frequency to calculate how many times you would expect to score 3 in 60 throws of this dice.... Answer... (c) Compare your answer to part with the number of times you would expect to score 3 in 60 throws of a fair dice.... (Total 5 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 4

5 2. Lynne has a spinner with coloured sections of equal size. She wants to know the probability that her spinner lands on blue. She spins it 100 times and calculates the relative frequency of blue after every 10 spins Her results are shown on the graph. Relative frequency Number of spins Use the graph to calculate the number of times the spinner landed on blue in the first 20 spins Answer... Use the graph to estimate the probability that the spinner will land on blue. Answer... (Total 3 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 5

6 3. A four-sided spinner has sections labelled A,B,C,D. The spinner is spun and the relative frequency of the letter A is recorded after every 10 spins. After 50 spins there were 20 letters As. Plot this relative frequency on the diagram Relative frequency The relative frequency after the first 60 spins is 0.45 Number of spins How many times does the spinner land on A in the first 60 spins? Answer... (c) Is the spinner biased? Give a reason for your answer. (d) The spinner is spun 1000 times. How many times would you expect the spinner to land on A? Answer... (e) A different four-sided spinner has these probabilities. Letter A B C D What is the probability of getting a B or a C with one spin? Answer... (Total 8 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 6

7 4. A bag contains 200 coloured discs. The discs are either red, blue or yellow. There are 86 red discs in the bag. The probability that a blue disc is chosen from the bag is 0.22 Calculate the number of yellow discs in the bag Answer... (Total 4 marks) 5. Penny, Sam and Robert do this experiment on the same bag of 10 counters. 1. Take a counter from the bag at random. 2. Record its colour. 3. Put the counter back in the bag. Repeat this trial a number of times. Their results are shown in this table. Name of Number Colour of counter pupil of trials Black White Green Penny Sam Robert Estimate the number of each different coloured counter in the bag. Clearly state the set of results that you use to make the estimate. Give a reason for your choice Set of results used... Reason Answer Black..., White..., Green. (Total 4 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 7

8 6. Geoff throws a coin 70 times. He plots the relative frequency of the number of tails after every 10 throws Relative frequency of a tail Number of throws How many tails were obtained in 50 throws? Answer... tails Use the diagram to estimate the probability of obtaining a tail. Answer... (c) Do you think the coin was biased? Give a reason for your answer. (Total 4 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 8

9 7. Kali has a spinner with coloured sections of equal size. She wants to know the probability that her spinner lands on pink. She spins it 100 times and calculates the relative frequency of pink after every 10 spins. Her results are shown on the graph Relative frequency of pink Number of spins Use the graph to calculate the number of times that the spinner landed on pink (i) after the first 10 spins, Answer (ii) after the first 50 spins. Answer From the graph, estimate the probability of the spinner landing on pink. Answer St Paul s Catholic School 9

10 (c) Kali s results confirm that her spinner is fair. The spinner has five equal sections. (i) How many sections are pink? Answer (ii) Kali spins the spinner two more times. What is the theoretical probability that the spinner lands on pink both times? Answer (Total 8 marks) Success: Target: St Paul s Catholic School 10

11 Teacher Assessment Section C Tree Diagrams Grade B A* 1. Danny has a biased coin. The probability that the coin lands heads is 3 2. Danny throws the coin twice. Fill in the probabilities on the tree diagram. First throw Second throw... Head... Head... Tail... Tail... Head... Tail Calculate the probability that Danny gets two heads. Answer... (Total 4 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 11

12 2. The probability that it rains on any day in June is 0.3 The tree diagram represents a Saturday and a Sunday in June. Fill in the probabilities on the tree diagram. Saturday Sunday... Rains Rains Does not rain... Rains... Does not rain... Does not rain Calculate the probability that it rains on only one of these days. Answer... (Total 5 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 12

13 3. Bob is taking penalties. The probability that Bob scores from the penalty spot is 5 3 for each penalty. Bob takes two penalties. Draw a fully labelled tree diagram showing all the probabilities. Calculate the probability that Bob scores exactly once on his two attempts. Answer (Total 6 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 13

14 4. Philip and Abdul run in different races. The probability that Philip wins his race is 0.7 The probability that Abdul wins his race is 0.6 Fill in the missing probabilities on the tree diagram. Philip Abdul 0.6 Win Win Not win Win Not win... Not win Calculate the probability that only one of the boys wins his race Answer... (Total 4 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 14

15 5. The diagram shows a spinner. 2 3 When the arrow is spun the probability of scoring 2 is 0.3 The arrow is spun twice and the scores are added. Complete the tree diagram. First spin Second spin What is the probability that the total score is 4?... Answer... (Total 3 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 15

16 6. Shereen has two bags of marbles. Bag A contains 3 red marbles and 4 green marbles. Bag B contains 2 red marbles and 3 green marbles. Shereen throws a fair six-sided dice. If the dice lands on a six, she takes a marble at random from bag A. If the dice lands on any other number, she takes a marble at random from bag B. Draw a fully labelled tree diagram showing the above information. Mark the probabilities on the appropriate branches. Calculate the probability that a red marble is selected Answer... (Total 6 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 16

17 7. Jean enters an archery competition. If it is raining the probability that she hits the target is 0.4. If it is not raining the probability that she hits the target is 0.7 The probability that it rains on the day of the competition is 0.2 Draw a fully labelled tree diagram showing all the probabilities. Calculate the probability that Jean hits the target with her first arrow in the competition. Answer... (Total 6 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 17

18 8. Ian and Simon play each other in a darts match. The match consists of three games. The winner of the match is the first player to win two games. The tree diagram shows all the possible outcomes. I wins means that Ian wins the game. S wins means that Simon wins the game. 1st game 2nd game 3rd game... I wins I wins... I wins S wins... S wins I wins... I wins S wins... S wins... S wins The probability that Ian wins the first game is 0.5 Whenever Ian wins a game the probability that he wins the next game is 0.7 Whenever Simon wins a game the probability that he wins the next game is 0.6 Complete the tree diagram. Calculate the probability that Ian wins the darts match. Answer... (4) (Total 6 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 18

19 9. In a village 5 3 of the pensioners have had a flu jab. 1 If a pensioner has had the flu jab the probability of catching flu is 30 7 If a pensioner has not had the flu jab the probability of catching flu is 10 Calculate the probability that a pensioner, picked at random, from this village catches flu. Answer... A statistician calculated that 120 pensioners from this village are expected to catch flu. Calculate how many pensioners live in the village. Answer... (Total 5 marks) Success: Target: St Paul s Catholic School 19

20 Teacher Assessment Section D Problem Solving Using Grade B A* 1. Joe hangs a shirt on the washing line using coloured pegs from a bag. The bag contains 10 red, 5 yellow and 5 green pegs. Joe picks two pegs at random from the bag to hang the shirt. Calculate the probability that he picks two red pegs Answer (Total 3 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 20

21 2. Sam and Tom both own a dog. The probability that Sam walks his dog on a given day is 0.7 The probability that Tom walks his dog on a given day is x. These are independent events. (i) Write down an expression for the probability that Tom does not walk his dog on a given day. Answer... (ii) Show that the probability that neither of them walks their dog on a given day is x You are given that x = 0.6 Find the probability that at least one of them walks their dog on three consecutive days..... Answer... (Total 6 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 21

22 3. Two different packs of cards are shown below First pack Second pack A card is picked at random from the first pack and placed into the second pack. A card is then picked at random from the second pack. Calculate the probability that the card picked from the first pack is numbered 5 and the card picked from the second pack is also numbered 5. Answer... the card picked from the first pack and the card picked from the second pack have the same number. Answer... (Total 5 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 22

23 4. Charlie is inspecting chocolates at his chocolate factory. He rejects chocolates that are the wrong size and also those that are the wrong shape. The probability that a chocolate is the correct size is p. The probability that a chocolate is the correct shape is q. The size and shape of a chocolate are independent events. Complete the probabilities in the table. Event Chocolate is the correct size and the correct shape. Chocolate is the correct size and the wrong shape. Chocolate is the wrong size and the correct shape. Chocolate is the wrong size and the wrong shape. p(1 q) Show clearly that these probabilities have a total of 1. (c) The probability that a chocolate is both the correct size and the correct shape is The probability that a chocolate is the correct size is 0.9 What is the probability that a chocolate is the correct shape? Answer... (Total 6 marks) St Paul s Catholic School 23

24 5. Jill is playing a game with a set of five discs. Three of the discs are numbered 1 and the other two are numbered The discs are placed in a bag. Jill draws a disc from the bag and looks at its number. If the first disc drawn is numbered 1, she takes one more disc from the bag. Her score is the total of the three discs left in the bag. If the first disc drawn is numbered 2, she takes two more discs from the bag. Her score is the total of the two discs left in the bag. Complete the table below. First disc drawn Further disc(s) taken Discs left in the bag Score Calculate the probability that Jill gets a score of Answer... (Total 5 marks) Success: Target: St Paul s Catholic School 24

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