Security Foresight Analysis 2017 (SFA 2017) and Future Framework for future Alliance Operations (FFAO)

Transcription

1 Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Security Foresight Analysis 2017 (SFA 2017) and Future Framework for future Alliance Operations (FFAO) LTC Sven SZABO, AUTA

2 ACT MISSION To contribute to preserving the peace, security and territorial integrity of Alliance member states by leading (at the strategic command level) the transformation of military structures, forces, capabilities, and doctrines to improve the military effectiveness of NATO.

3 Characteristics of the Future Complexity Period of Transition Rate of Change Globalization Uncertainty Interconnectedness

4 FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT Today through 2035 and beyond will likely be a period of great complexity which will present both CHALLENGES and OPPORTUNITIES

5 APPROACH What is the future like? What is the long-term impact to the Alliance? Long-Term Input to: INFORMS INFORMS SACT Six Focus Areas Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO) NDPP

6 SFA NATO UNCLASSIFIED-PUBLICLY DISCLOSED NATO UNCLASSIFIED-PUBLICLY DISCLOSED Strategic Foresight Analysis 2015 Interim Update to the SFA 2013 Report TRENDS IMPLICATIONS North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation NATO UNCLASSIFIED-PUBLICLY DISCLOSED NATO UNCLASSIFIED-PUBLICLY DISCLOSED COMMON UNDERSTANDING

7 SFA Themes & Trends Political Re-distribution of Geostrategic Power Use of Power Politics Non-State Actor Influence in Domestic/International Affairs Challenges to Governance Public Discontent/Disaffection and Polarization Technology Rate of Technology Advance Access to Technology Global Network Development Commercial Sector Dominance Technological Dependencies Economics/Resources Globalization of Financial Resources Geopolitical Dimension of Resources Defence Expenditures Challenges in the West Increased Inequality Human Asymmetric Demographics Change Increasing Urbanization Fractured Polarized Societies Increasingly Connected Human Networks Environment Environmental/ Climate Change Natural Disasters 28-Sep-17 SPP NATO UNCLASSIFIED Publicly Disclosed 7

8 APPROACH What is the future like? What is the long-term impact to the Alliance? INFORMS Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO)

9 FFAO Instability Situations Strategic Military Perspectives Military Implications Bi-SC product

10 INSTABILITY SITUATIONS

11 Strategic Military Perspectives OPERATIONAL AGILITY SECURITY NETWORKING SHARED RESILIENCE STRATEGIC AWARENESS STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS

12 MILITARY IMPLICATIONS C3 INFORMATIVE, NOT PRESCRIPTIVE ABILITIES NOT CAPABILITIES

13 VALIDATION Bi-Strategic Command Approved 21 August 2015 Military Committee (MC) Agreement MCM , October 2015 MC acknowledged and agreed that the FFAO is useful to: align National defense planning. become a focused input to NDPP and expand NDPP into the long-term. be a long-term broad direction of travel. and should be delivered in time to help develop MC input to Political Guidance. NAC Notation PO (2015) 0624-AS1 20 Nov 2015

14 APPROACH What is the future like? What is the long-term impact to the Alliance? Long-Term Input to: INFORMS INFORMS SACT Six Focus Areas Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO) NDPP

15 QUESTIONS Contacts: Col Tibor Szabo, SA Branch Head Mr. Mehmet Kinaci, SFA Team Lead LTC Aaron Bazin, FFAO Team Lead