30 April 2 May 2018 ICC Sydney Unlocking the Future through Systems Engineering. sete2018.com.au. Ksenia Ivanova

Transcription

1 30 April 2 May 2018 ICC Sydney Unlocking the Future through Systems Engineering sete2018.com.au Ksenia Ivanova

2 Addressing Future Challenges for Defence Acquisition: A Methodological Perspective on Military Contextualisation of Emerging Technologies Ksenia Ivanova, Sondoss Elsawah Defence Science and Technology Group University of New South Wales 2

3 Presentation Outline UNCLASSIFIED Approved for Public Release Contextual factors Current approaches and gaps Exploration of new approaches Proposed framework 3

4 Significance of Technology Concepts Far-reaching consequences of early investment decisions Concepts stage accounts for ~ 75% of total budget commitments First opportunity to look at technology in the context of military operations Under-represented in the overall life-cycle rate of effort 4

5 Contextual Drivers for Defence Acquisition Geopolitical and Economic Factors Economic conditions and budget effects Pace of technological development Diminished Defence lead in technology development Greater emphasis on leveraging commercial technologies Imperative for maintaining technological edge Consolidation of the defence industrial base Greater risk of strategic surprise Greater access to technology Militarisation in peer competitor countries 5

6 Contextual Drivers for Defence Acquisition Operational and Internal Factors Range of operations Consistent aspects of military operations Capability construct as a complex, dynamic system Technology is not capability Evolving aspects of military operations Organisational challenges Mutually-shaping relationships 6

7 Current Approaches to Capability Concept Development Defence Capability Life Cycle Strategy and Concepts Stage takes place prior to Gate 0 Identification of gaps and opportunities supported by the Defence Capability Assessment Program (DCAP) Development and testing of operating concepts Proposals to the Integrated Investment Program Systems Engineering Framework Concepts Stage focuses on defining the problem space, exploring solution space, identification of stakeholders needs Refining requirements Exploring feasible concepts Iterative and recursive approach Requirements are defined in a solution-independent manner 7

8 Gaps in Exploiting Emerging Technologies Requirements-centric vs technology centric approaches Requirements-driven approach Finding the balance Technology-driven approach What technology do we need to address identified capability gaps? versus What capability could we achieve given the current state of technology? 8

9 Gaps in Exploiting Emerging Technologies (cont.) Integration and de-confliction of key perspectives and enablers Recognition of the mutually-shaping influences Explicit integration and de-confliction vs silo-progression Systemic approach Capability option as an organisational construct Incorporation of enablers Assessment of causal relations that give rise to risks and benefits 9

10 Developing a New Framework 10

11 Exploring related fields of study Multimethodology Systems thinking in systems engineering Systemic design Problem Structuring Methods Scenario planning Creative thinking 11

12 12 UNCLASSIFIED Approved for Public Release Summary of the Proposed Framework

13 Further Work Theory to Practice Identification of relevant evaluation metrics and relevant perspectives for designing capability constructs Multi-case study to apply, test and refine the framework Incorporation of futures uncertainty within the capability construct evaluation approaches Nothing is more practical than a good theory - Ludwig Boltzmann 13

14 Questions? e.com 14