Governing with Foresight: Bringing Strategic Foresight to Bear in Policy Planning and Management

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1 Governing with Foresight: Bringing Strategic Foresight to Bear in Policy Planning and Management Strategic Foresight Panel July 22, 2016

2 NAPA Strategic Foresight Panel Background Panel stood-up in October 2015 Purpose: Identify Strategic Foresight efforts that have been effective within the federal government and elsewhere? Demonstrate the value of using foresight in decisionmaking Recommend principles/ policies for adoption by the new Administration Who We Are: NAPA fellows and invited experts from the field 1

3 Panel Members John Kamensky,* Chair Angela Antonelli* Jonathan Breul* Leon Fuerth Bob Hale* Ken Hunter Sid Kaplan* Steve Redburn* Ruth Wagner Amy Zalman Observers James Blockwood,* GAO Dustin Brown,* OMB Mark Bussow, OMB Corporate Supporters Booz Allen Hamilton Grant Thornton Toffler Associates NAPA Transition Web Link * Academy Fellows 2

4 Panel Observations Strategic Foresight offers a disciplined process for identifying and analyzing uncertainties with the potential to significantly affect policy objectives. Strategic Foresight employs scenarios to consider how different trends and developments may come together in unexpected ways to put policy objectives at risk or create opportunities for more effective action on these objectives. Strategic Foresight helps leadership identify critical weaknesses in policy areas that may not be a priority, but where adverse events could potentially derail effective action. 3

5 Strategic Foresight and the Next Administration Recommendation: The new President and his/ her Administration frame their strategic decisions in the context of their impact on the future. Implementation Actions: The Panel recommends three major actions to implement the Recommendation: Charter a stress-test taskforce to identify key challenges Integrate foresight into government-wide policy development Use existing foresight networks to support agency management and implementation decision-making 4

6 Action 1: Charter a 100-Day Government-wide Stress Test Taskforce The Taskforce would conduct a Foresight-risk assessment to identify 5-10 future challenges or opportunities that could derail or accelerate the new President s key priorities. To do this, the Taskforce would: Review and synthesize existing Foresight activities that have been recently undertaken in the private and public sectors Conduct its own Foresight exercises Engage existing agency Foresight staffs Include results of agency-produced Strategic Risk Profiles 5

7 Action 2: Systematically Integrate Foresight into Policy Development Create a White House-level capacity for Strategic Foresight to inform key policy decisions Create an expectation that the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Deputy Director for Management likely through the President's Management Council would champion the creation and use of Strategic Foresight in agencies to inform policy, management, and implementation decision-making 6

8 Action 3: Leverage Existing Interagency Networks to Help Agencies Develop and Use Foresight in Decision-Making Encourage the creation and dissemination of Strategic Foresight units and studies in agencies Encourage communities of interest across and within agencies that focus on Foresight and risk analyses. 7

9 Next Steps Continue table top exercises of strategic foresight Inventory existing agency capacities for foresight Develop case studies where foresight influenced decisions Develop network of advocates for use of foresight Develop implementation framework for Actions, to share with transition team Prepared by John Kamensky and Yilin Zhang 8

10 NAPA Strategic Foresight Blog Posts Bringing Strategic Foresight to the Fore What is Strategic Foresight? Linking Foresight to Decision Making Effective Strategic Foresight is Rooted in Cross-Agency Collaboration Strategic Foresight is a Measurable Activity Promoting Strategic Foresight By Doing It: Putting Experts to the Test The Value of Strategic Foresight Reflections on the Nixon National Goals Research Staff Reflections on Federal Foresight Initiatives in the 1970s Can We Finally Link Foresight to Policy? Please Visit: 9