Idaho National Laboratory Defense Acquisition System System of Systems Engineering

Transcription

1 Idaho National Laboratory Defense Acquisition System System of Systems Engineering Abstract ID: #19736 For: NDIA 20 th Annual Systems Engineering Conference October 2017 Prepared by: Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Larry Dean Harding Systems Engineering

2 INL Systems Analyses & Engineering Contacts Mitchell Kerman Division Director (208) NDIA Presenter Ron Klingler Department Manager (208) Larry Harding Systems Engineer (208) John Collins Group Lead for Energy & Environment Projects (208) Jody Henley Group Lead for Nuclear Projects (208) Shyam Nair Group Lead for Process & Data Sciences (208) INL Systems Analyses & Engineering Web Page 2

3 Core Functions INL Systems Analyses & Engineering 7 Verification of System Performance and Functionality Validation of System Specification and Design Parameters Test Planning and Implementation 6 Program & Project Integration Laboratory-wide R&D Integration Laboratories/Industries/ Universities Integration Integration of System Elements Systems of Systems Analyses 5 Technology Maturity Analysis Technology Development Roadmap/Path Forward Roadblock Identification & Mitigation System Assessments (e.g., Energy Systems) 4 Risk Identification and Tracking Justification for Funding Contingency Risk Handling Strategy Risk Reduction Plan Risk-informed Path Forward 1 Concise Problem Definition Understanding Important Customer Needs Concise System/Project Boundaries Strategic Planning & Baselines Concept of Operations Stakeholder Buy-in Acquisition Strategy White Papers 2 Technical, Functional, and Operational Analysis Requirements Elicitation, Clarification, Derivation, and Tracking Traceability, Change Control, and Impact Analysis Requirements Verification and Validation Planning 3 Analysis of Alternatives Decision Metrics Organization Analysis & Visualization of Complex and Big Data Uncertainty Analysis & Probabilistic Risk Assessment Risk-informed Decision-making Integration of Viable Solutions Chemical Process Engineering & Analysis Chemical Process Control Computational Fluid Dynamics 3

4 Defense Acquisition System System of Systems Engineering The Defense Acquisition System is a Joint Services process with the primary function to develop and provide DoD military capabilities. Because all branches of the military use this common system, by nature it is a very complex and lengthy process. The Integrated Defense Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Life Cycle Management System, is composed of three major lanes of authority: (1) The Defense Acquisition System; (2) Joint Capabilities Integration & Development System (JCIDS); and (3) Planning, Programming, Budgeting & Execution Process. The purpose of this presentation is to introduce the Idaho National Laboratory s (INL) seven step process and a holistic approach of systems integration techniques directed at these three lanes of authority. 4

5 Chrysler's Mini Van Platform Platform Concept Engineering Design Procurement Production 5

6 Chrysler's Mini Van Platform Platform Concept Engineering Design Procurement Production Cross Functional Product Teams Keiretsu Enhanced Communications and Coordination Improve Efficiency Applicable to Several Vehicle Platforms 6

7 INL Seven Step Integration Methods JCIDS Defense Acquisition System Planning, Programming, Budgeting & Execution Analysis of Alternatives Requirements Definition and Derivation Risk Management Technology Readiness Assessments Technology Development Roadmaps Technology Development Deployment 7

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10 Candidate Materials H 617 Hastelloy X Ceramics Candidate Designs Shell & Tube Printed Circuit Plate & Fin Helical Tube Involute Capillary Tube Plate Stamped Secondary Fluid Candidates He N2/He Molten Salts Steam DRAFT Revision: 11 Date: 12/12/08 Changed by: Layne Pincock Properties Decision Discriminators -Creep Fatigue -Embrittlement -Thermal Expansion -Thermal Fatigue Crack Resistance -Oxidation Resistance -Carburization Resistance -Thermal Conductivity -Max Operating Temperature Maturity of Material Data R&D Status Service Experience ASME Code Qualification Cobalt Scaling Fabricability Licensing Risks Availability Localized Stress/ Strain Localized Erosion Receipt Inspectability Inservice Inspectability Adequate Data for Prediction Effects Effects Environmental Thermal Radiation Performance in Impure He Performance -Steady State -Depressurized -Conduction Models/tests to Predict Max Life Reduction at Weld Site Fusion of Large Sections Diffusion Bonding / Joining of Thin Sheets Can be put into use by 2021? Decision Discriminators Localized Corrosion Transient Condition Acceptability Tritium Migration Allowance Compactness MW/m 3 Heat Transfer Rate (performance) Costs Equipment & Operating costs Material Thickness Can be put into use by 2021? Ease of Codification Ease of Licensing Repairability Dust Susceptibility(fouling) Decision Discriminators Infiltration to Primary in Accident Scenario Consider accident scenarios and ease of recovery Purification Capability Consider ability to separate Tritium from 2 nd Fluid Cost Consider mitigation requirements for certain fluids -Cool Down Cost Manufacturability to section III Performance under off-normal conditions Availability Design Margin Replacement Frequency Pressure Drop Integration -Integration with vessels & piping -Compatibility with multi-stage/module designs Availability of Fluid Inspectability (RAMI) Piping/Valving Complexity Material Down Selection Design Down Selection Note: Can implement multiple designs (for different process loops) Secondary Fluid Down Selection IHX A H IHX B Helical Tube Plate Stamped Printed Circuit He FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 Key: Principal Risks Mitigated by R&D Design Tasks Fouling effects on IHX Absence of IHX qualification plan IHX design and materials stress issues IHX creep and fatigue IHX alloy thickness Establish reference specifications & procure mat ls for testing Provide experimentally based constitutive models that are the foundation of the inelastic design analyses required by Subsection NH of Section III of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Develop thermal/fluid, stress/strain, and performance models Material qualification/codification Determine thermal, physical & mechanical properties Determine performance of weldments and discontinuities Assess effects of grain size & section thickness Establish criteria for structural integrity of IHX Evaluate effects of thermal aging & environmental exposure Determine corrosion allowances Constitutive modeling and analysis Consider: -Material, design, fluid compatibility -Required Delivery Temp -Distance -User Requirements -Operating Conditions -Transient performance -Bonding -Thin section performance Basic Principles Observed Complete NGNP Conceptual Design Determine the effects of cyclic loading on creep and fatigue Assist in the development of a guideline for inelastic analysis and life prediction Develop joining procedures TRL3 Current TRL Licensing/Codification Develop joining procedures Tasks to advance TRL & reduce risk Performance Tests Evaluate effects of thermal aging & environmental exposure Validate analytical model predictions Establish simplified design procedures TRL4 Bench Scale Material, Design, Fluid Down Selection Technology Readiness Levels Application Formulated Proof of Concept NRC Licensing Fabricate Experimental Scale heat exchanger(s) Bench Scale Testing Satisfactory testing of IHX candidate designs at experimental scale TRL5 Experimental Scale Temp: 950 C Pressure: 9MPa Cyclic Testing: TBD Component Demonstrated at Experimental Scale Test and evaluate Experimental Scale of IHX design(s) in relevant environment Subsystem Demonstrated at Pilot Scale Design Pilot Scale IHX Complete NGNP Preliminary Design Submit COLA for Selected Design Determine flaw assessment and leak before break Obtain codification of Inconel 617 Obtain necessary ASME code approvals Helical Tube Printed Circuit System Demonstrated at Engineering Scale Fabricate Pilot Scale heat exchanger(s) Integrated Prototype Tested and Qualified Plant Operational CTF Construction Complete Technology Component Subsystem System Plant Develop manufacturing processes for selected design Test and evaluate Pilot Scale of heat exchanger design(s) in relevant environment Demonstrate in-service inspectability for inelastic design method Develop final design for NGNP prototype IHX Commercial scale Multiple Units TRL6 Pilot Scale Temp: 950 C Design Engineering Scale IHX Pressure: 9MPa Temp Δ: >250 C Pressure Δ: <600kPa Mass Flow: 5 kg/s Op Time: 500 hrs Cyclic Testing: TBD Complete NGNP Final Design Extrapolation of creep data to 60 years for 800H Satisfactory testing of 1.2MWt IHX Fabricate Engineering Scale heat exchanger(s) Test and evaluate Engineering Scale of IHX design(s) in integrated relevant environment Fabricate NGNP heat exchanger(s) NRC Issues COL TRL7 Engineering Scale Temp: 950 C Pressure: 9MPa Temp Δ: >300 C Pressure Δ: <500kPa Mass Flow: 10 kg/s Op Time: 5,000 hrs Cyclic Testing: TBD Full Scale IHX operated successfully 4/29/08 Test and qualify full scale NGNP prototype heat exchanger design(s) in integrated operational environment (non-rad ops) FY 2022 TRL8 Full Scale Temp: 950 C Pressure: 9MPa Temp Δ: >400 C Pressure Δ: <200kPa Mass Flow: 10 kg/s Op Time: >5,000 hrs Cyclic Testing: TBD Normalized Risk Score Assess Technology Maturity NGNP Area Min System TRL NGNP 3 Nuclear Heat Supply System (NHSS) 4 Reactor Pressure Vessel 4 Reactor Vessel Internals 4 Reactor Core and Core Structure 4 Fuel Elements 4 Reserve Shutdown System 5 Reactivity Control System 4 Core Conditioning System 4 Reactor Cavity Cooling System 4 Heat Transfer System (HTS) 3 Circulators 5 Intermediate Heat Exchanger 3 Cross Vessel Piping 4 High Temperature Valves - Flapper 6 High Temperature Valves - Iso, Relief 4 Power Conversion System (PCS) 4 Steam Generator 4 Balance of Plant (BOP) 3 Fuel Handling System - Prismatic 4 Fuel Handling System - Pebble Bed 5 Instrumentation & Control 3 Select Systems, Structures, Components Rate Technology Readiness Level Intermediate Heat Exchanger Technology Development Roadmap Advance TRLs & Reduce Risk Develop Risk Register Systematically Reduce Risk Execute to Risk Work off Metric Risk vs. Technology Readiness Build the Roadmap & Define Path Forward Execute the Roadmap & Refine Path Forward Develop Technology Maturation Steps Define Decision Points Establish Performance Metrics Performance Criteria Performance Criteria Performance Criteria Performance Criteria Performance Criteria Current TRL Maturity Score 10

11 AMC TRADOC ASA(ALT) G3 ASA(IE&E) G4 G8 Industry /Academia Government Agencies Soldier Systems PM s/peo s USACE Soldier S&T Roadmap Contingency Basing CB S&T Roadmap Ground Platforms Ground S&T Roadmap Air Platforms Air S&T Roadmap Water Craft Technology Developers RDECOM DOTMLPF Concepts Requirements Cap. Gaps NIE CPDs CPPs COEs ACD CPRs POM oversight Acquisition Logistics Policy HQDA Ops REF Policy Budget certification HQDA Staffing for OE Funding POM Systems Developer Providers Technology Developer Engineering Services Water Craft S&T Roadmap 11

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13 Defense Acquisition System System of Systems Engineering In general there are several hundred relationship nodes that are embedded in the Acquisition Process that presents numerous stopping points due to analysis, reviews, and approvals and in some cases contention due to stove pipe lines of authority and friction between organizations. The construct provides three dimensional integration and applies the INL seven step integration methods to create technology roadmaps and expedited material solutions that could be directly applied to the Defense Acquisition Process and the JCIDS process. Early Development Planning Architecture Interoperability & Systems Integration Systems-of-Systems Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Effectiveness 13

14 Backup Slides 14

15 Technology Readiness Levels Basic Principle Application Formulated Proof of Concept Bench Scale Experimental Scale Pilot Scale Engineering Scale Prototype Plant Operational Commercial scale Technology Component Subsystem System Plant Area Component Testing Capability Cold Testing Hot Operations Technology Readiness Assessment The structures, systems, and components (SSC) comprising the Defense Acquisition Process are synthesized and evaluated through a Technology Readiness Assessment and assigned Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) based on technical maturity. For lower TRLs, assessments typically occur at an individual technology or component level. To mature the technology or component, integrated testing or modeling must occur at increasingly larger scales, with integrated components, and in increasingly relevant environments, thus achieving higher TRL ratings as the project progresses. A validated TRL baseline is established for the proposed physical design and is periodically reassessed throughout the project life cycle. Validated TRLs provide project management one measure of the level of technological risk encountered by the project. 15

16 Technology Development Roadmaps With the baseline TRLs in place, technology development roadmaps (TDRMs) can then be generated to define the decision discriminators, forecast down selection timeframes, and focus project research and development and engineering tasks on increasing levels of technical maturity. TDRMs provide the required structure and are the primary means to systematically perform risk-informed decision making, quantify uncertainty, down select technologies, and mature technologies in a cost-effective and timely manner. Tasks include modeling, testing, bench-scale demonstrations, pilot-scale demonstrations, and full integrated prototype demonstrations. TDRMs for critical SSC are developed to: Set the project vision for technology maturation and risk resolution Identify the key selection discriminators and drive uncertainty reduction to inform technology and design down selection Ensure technology readiness is demonstrated through testing, modeling, simulations, piloting, and prototyping Provide early identification and resolution of technical risks Avoid late project technical challenges, which manifest themselves as cost overruns and schedule delays 16

17 Risk-Informed Project Readiness Assessment The tasks needed to mature the technologies, as documented in the TDRMs, also reduce the technical project risk. Technical and programmatic risks including political decisions, social acceptance, and market demand are reviewed and risk handling strategies developed to reduce the probability of the risk event and lessen its damage should the event occur. While advancing project readiness, and engineering design. The resulting RISK-Informed Project Readiness Assessment serves to: Identify the tasks that provide the most efficient risk resolution Provide a path forward for reducing risk over the life of the project Link risk to project schedule and integrated priority list Integrate multiple stakeholders viewpoints into risk-informed path forward Provide a Risk Work-off Metric for the project to track risk to acceptable levels 17

18 Questions? Larry Harding Systems Engineer (208)