A new common vision for Europe

Transcription

1 A new common vision for Europe - what we can do with global futures? EIN & Martens Center joint 'Food For Thought' Seminar European Parliament, Brussels 1 February 2017 Dr. Angela Wilkinson angelawilkinson@yahoo.com

2 The global future matters to the future of Europe and isn t what it used to be! A new normal connected, complex, TUNA context Deepening turbulence, at scale, presents novel governance challenges 10 years ago who would have predicted: Global financial crisis of 2008 (and slow recovery) Brexit referendum (and outcome) Incursion of ISIS into Iraq A sustained low oil price A super-hot Arctic winter A migration crisis in Europe The global success of Uber, AirBnB, Facebook The world s first trillionaire

3 Europe in a shifting global context a megatrends type framework Global accelerations shaping the future Markets Mother Nature Moore s Law Source: Thank you for being late Thomas L. Friedman, 2016

4 Big KISS - Markets, Mother Nature, Moore s Law Explosion of economic interdependency and global value chains Financial globalization - faster accumulation of wealth and new extremes in inequality Technological globalization winner-takesall dynamics of internet economy What will be traded in future? Markets Mother Nature Moore s law Global climate change momentum is still increasing (Paris Agreement shaky) Local increasing water stress, habitat destruction, species extinctions, ice-melt Transboundary - ocean acidification, shifting circulation patterns Getting ahead of connected challenges? Digitalization Big Data, Internet of Things Multiple frontiers converging - robotics, nano-, bio-, AI, materials, genomics, synbio Can social, political and institutional innovations keep pace? Microprocessor Transistor Counts & Moore's Law 16-Core SPARC T3 2,600,000,000 1,000,000,000 Six-Core Core i7 Six-Core Xeon 7400 Dual-Core Itanium 2 AMD K10 POWER6 Itanium 2 with 9MB cache AMD K10 10-Core Xeon Westmere-EX 8-core POWER7 Quad-core z196 Quad-Core Itanium Tukwila 8-Core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-Core Opteron 2400 Core i7 (Quad) Itanium 2 Core 2 Duo Cell 100,000,000 AMD K8 Pentium 4 Barton Atom Transistor count 10,000,000 1,000,000 curve shows transistor count doubling every two years Pentium Pentium III Pentium II AMD K5 AMD K7 AMD K6-III AMD K6 100, , Z , MOS RCA Date of introduction

5 Comprehensible vs. comprehensible who decides and how? Global events, shifting demands and new actors interacting Markets Mother Nature Moore s Law (mass) Migrations (re)militarisation Motivations Source: Thank you for being late Thomas L. Friedman, 2016

6 Migration, Militarisation, and Motivations.uncomfortable/less tangible. 4 Migration 5 (Re)Militarisation 6 Historic levels of flow new waves in multiple world regions (not just into EU) More lone children and families Increasing pressures conflict, economic, environmental Defence spending in Nato (Europe and Canada) has been increasing since 2012, with the sharpest rise in 2016 IHS Jane s forecasts spending in the Asia- Pacific region will climb 23 percent to $533 billion annually by 2020 Motivations A rise of me-ism/instant gratification A shift from growth to well-living A new global vision no one left behind; universal and multi-dimensional A redefining of progress - inclusive vs. exclusive, pragmatic vs. ideological Source: Author

7 A growing list of connected challenges facing Europe A declining and ageing population Prospects of lower global growth Increasing inequalities (within countries and intergen.) Return of populism Decreasing trust in EU institutions Declining geo-economic influence Immigration crisis Youth unemployment Regional instabilities and new security threats ISIS, cyber security Big data vs. data monopolies and privacy issues Foresight on this topic is fragmented and there is little consensus around possible scenarios and their implications Over 15+ studies 45+ different sets scenarios

8 A fragmented foresight landscape more producers & products Global Europe 2050, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities, 2012 Global trends 2030: Challenges and opportunities for Europe, Atlantic Council, 2013 Future Scenarios for the Eurozone, 15 Perspectives on the Euro Crisis, Scenario team Eurozone 2020, Friedrich-Ebert- Stiftung, March Scenarios: Standstill in European Integration Nobody cares Fragmented European Integration EU Under threat Further European integration EU Renaissance Europe will have to operate in a context of shifting wealth and power from west to east and north to south Between now and 2030, both the United States and Europe will increasingly have to pursue their goals in a world of diffused power The economic backdrop may complicate efforts to rejuvenate the European project over the coming generation 4 Scenarios: Muddling through the Crisis: the Eurozone remains a house without a protecting roof Break-up of the Eurozone.: the Euro house falls apart Core Europe: evolution of two-level integration with a smaller and stable, but exclusionary Euro house Completion of the Monetary Union by a fiscal and political union 8

9 Interest in and infancy of global and inter-national foresight New Lens Scenarios, Shell Mountains Oceans Global Trends, National Intelligence Council, Scenarios: Islands Orbits Communities Strategic trends programme, Global strategic trends out to 2045, United Kingdom s Ministry of Defence Europe is likely to remain a substantial part of the global economy in 2045 EU membership is likely to expand Europe is likely to face a range of security challenges Global E-tailing 2025, DHL 4 Scenarios Hybrid consumer Self presentation Artificial intelligence Collaborative consumption World Energy Scenarios, World Energy Council 3 Scenarios: Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock An OECD horizon scan of megatrends and technology trends in the context of future research policy, OECD, 2016 Growing world population, ageing populations, increasing migration pressures Centre of gravity of the world economy is shifting east- and southwards, new emerging state and non-state actors Digitalisation will drive economies and shape the ways we work Old order persists, new emerging order(s) and/or or global disorder?

10 Europa Myth and Curse of Casandra Not what experts think about the future but how we USE FUTURES to make movement Abducted but a happy ending Foresaw the future but not believed

11 Who decides which trends/scenarios/disruptors need to be considered? Empowering Europe s future: governance, power and options for the EU in a changing world, Chatham House, FRIDE, ESPAS, 2013 The future of Europe, Chief Investment Office WM, UBS, 2016 The Future of Europe, European Issues n 402, DGAP, Fondation Robert Schuman, 2016 Current economic, demographic and military spending trends point to the downsizing of the EU s relative weight in the international system by 2030 The EU could become more a superpartner than a superpower Future prosperity in Europe will depend on the EU s ability to become a technology powerhouse Aging populations, longer life expectancy and falling birth rates will dampen Europe s potential economic growth rate in the coming decades Europe unlikely to fully leverage the huge labor pools in its neighborhood EU set to lose position as world s biggest market by the next decade Populism is a giant growing in slow motion The weakening of the founding narratives The economy is no longer necessarily a unifying factor Rise of populism and the nationalist far right 11

12 ESPAS a good start on trends: how can we use and do even better? ESPAS aims to strengthen the EU's collective administrative capacity for foresight: Seeks to identify the main global trends and to provide the decision- makers of the participating institutions with informed, up-to-date analysis of long-term policy challenges and options; Provides an inter-institutional system for identifying these trends, and to provide common analyses of probable outcomes on major issues for policy-makers; Promotes closer working cooperation between the services of the various EU institutions and bodies which are devoted to the analysis of these trends; Provides regular input to the EU institutions to nourish strategic thinking, including reaching out to academics, think tanks and other stake-holders to provide a broad perspective; Develops links with other countries and organisations undertaking global trends work, in order to benefit from their expertise, as well as providing its own expertise to other countries seeking to follow strategic trends and changes; Builds and maintains an open website and a global repository for all relevant information to facilitate access to citizens, linking the site to other working websites on long-term trends across the globe. Global trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead?, European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), 2015 Three Global Revolutions: 1. Economic and technological revolution 15 years of lower growth Towards a society of innovation 2. Social and democratic revolution Growing inequalities and lack of trust in democracy 3. Geo-political revolution Decreasing political influence of Europe

13 Engaging diverse communities of practice vs. dominance forecasting Not a simple change of tools, but mainstreaming a culture change Technological foresight Strategic foresight Scenario Planning Global/systemic risk Systems/services design Resilience static/dynamic Transition management Social change labs.

14 Rethinking our theories of change Chartres Cathedral Higgs Bozon Imaginal Cells A hack-athon!

15 Flourishing-in-Turbulence (FIT) governance implications Futures FIT not Future-Proofed Static Resilience - problem solving 1. Stable equilibrium (shock = temporary) 2. Short term efficiency 3. Complexity reduction, taming uncertainty 4. Hierarchical structure 5. Exploitation and adaptation 6. Rational-adaptive planning 7. Dedicated units to buffer turbulence Change likely to be highly path dependent, equilibrium reinforcing. Inflexible in crisis. Dynamic resilience - craftmanship 1. Far from equilibrium (=multiple/open futures) 2. Long term reliability 3. Complexity absorption (requisite variety) 4. Real-time adaptability 5. Balance of exploration and exploitation 6. Emergent planning 7. Distributed buffering Focus on process of continuous change through hybridity, recombination and improvisation. Crisis managed through informal structures. Source: Ansell et al. (2016), Governance in Turbulent Times, OUP

16 Democratic institutions using regional and global futures to create our new common future vision? Avoid top down blueprints and bottom up muddle through Keep the global future open and use it to forge new common ground Support my proposal for a Global Futures Commons Foundation Hold national leaders accountable for the stories of the global future they are telling/not considering Better prepare societies using multiple global futures Engage and extend ESPAS role as an essential coordination and engagement mechanism Promote active exchange of global scenarios with others/other regions Move beyond discussing futures reports to strategic conversation and interactive and collaborative strategizing Engage grassroots using the active pan-eu, change agents community imaginal cells are already in action (ask me about ICAN) 16

17 Thank you I would like to acknowledge the support of my colleagues at TGFG for the review of European foresight included in this presentation