FRONT END INNOVATION Future methods

Transcription

1 FRONT END INNOVATION Future methods

2 CONTENT Front end innovation process Weak signals and trends Scenarios TOOLS AND METHODS Peste-analysis Context map Future wheel Written Scenario

3 FUTURE METHODS Vision is not only a founding idea but necessarily the resolution to ensure its realization Jonathan Ive, Apple Computer inc.

4 FUTURE METHODS The ability to use foresight in order to make wise, insightful and imaginative choices is one of the most powerful capabilities of organizations in a global economy Present actions are guided by our interpretation of the past, and by our anticipation of, or aspiration for, the future Source: Peter McGrory, Aalto University

5 FUTURE ANALYSIS PROCESS

6 WEAK SIGNALS Weak signals can be spotted in different fields through the same kind of expertise and long term knowledge that helps us to see the trends in our professional field Small things existing today but telling us about big trends in the future Uncovering a weak signal before anyone else does gives an edge in development and may allow the emergence of an entire ecosystem of interlocked, collaborating ideas, inventions, and enterprises A too fixed expertise view can also prevent spotting a weak signal because they are unexpected

7 WEAK SIGNALS Searching weak signals is at the same time a description of innovation: spotting opportunities and new combinations form diverse fields of life So it seems that weak signals can be acquired through ideation from a multidisciplinary group They cannot usually be bought from the consultancies because if a weak signal is sold by a trend spotting consultant it is no longer a weak signal but already at least a weak trend

8 TRENDS Mega trend Societal trends Consumer & lifestyle trends Design trends Colors & material trends Megatrends Macrotrends Mesotrends Microtrends Decades 10 years 5 years 6 months to 3 years Source: Nokia Consumer trends research/ /Elise Levanto

9 GLOBAL MEGA & SOCIETAL TRENDS Awareness Globalization Culturism Techparadox Information society Information society Demographic change Gray power Wellbeing Induvidualism Feminization Tolerance & equity Experiences Networked society Source: Nokia Consumer trends research/ /Elise Levanto

10 SOCIETAL & CONSUMER TRENDS - LOGICS Mega trend Societal trends Consumer trends Awareness Green products Less is more attitude Implications Longevity & evolutionary nature of the solution Information society Wellbeing Slowing down Search for balance between mind and body Hedonistic health Spirituality Implications Enhancing health Focus on the essential Decreaced complexity Source: Nokia Consumer trends research/ /Elise Levanto

11 DIFFUSION OF TRENDS CHASM Awareness Post materialism Materialistic orientation Wellbeing Self development Leisure = relaxation & having fun Leading edge Mainstream 2.5% 13.5% 34% 34% 16% Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority laggards Source: Nokia Consumer trends research/ /Elise Levanto

12 LEADING EDGE VS. MAINSTREAM VALUES Leading edge They give us an idea how values & attitudes may change Good adaptability ready to change their attitudes Post materialistic values They create their own community Flexibility & autonomous hierarchies are irrelevant Love to learn self realization & wellbeing Have a dream, don t abandon yourself Mainstream They represent prevalent attitudes, values and practices Slow in change behaviour will change before values Consumeristic drive Community = family, friends, strong togetherness Traditions, but with modern twist Root sand heritage are important Relaxation and fun Search for table and regular, but not boring life Source: Nokia Consumer trends research/ /Elise Levanto

13 GLOBAL TRENDS trend-pulse-for-creative-industries

14 WHAT IS SCENARIO? Scenarios are a technique to build the alternative futures as presentations of life form in a context Certain weak signals or trends can fulfil themselves in these scenarios More specific use situations with imagined or real users and social or human product interaction can also be presented as scenarios Scenarios are are multidisciplinary and evolutionary constructions of the future that can cover a wide range of cultural, economic, technological and social issues

15 WHAT IS SCENARIO? Scenarios are device to: Think about the future Create, communicate and contemplate these alternative futures Cross- check assumptions concerning possible alternative futures Structure perceptions about these futures Form the basis or premise for future thinking and action

16 PESTEL ANALYSIS - TOOL HOW? Identify macro- environmental factors which are affecting to your design challenge Source: Robert Curedale. Design methods 1: 200 ways to apply design thinking

17 PESTEL ANALYSIS - TOOL Source: Robert Curedale. Design methods 1: 200 ways to apply design thinking

18 CONTEXT MAP - TOOL HOW? Identify the most relevant driving forces (trends, political factors etc.) that are affecting to the business environment Source: Robert Curedale. Design methods 1: 200 ways to apply design thinking

19 CONTEXT MAP - TOOL Source: Robert Curedale. Design methods 1: 200 ways to apply design thinking

20 FUTURE WHEEL - TOOL HOW? The futures wheel is a way of organising thinking and questioning about the future change It is a kind of structured brainstorming, analysing and mind mapping tool for the future Futures wheel can assist in developing multiple concepts about possible future development Start by placing the central idea/concept in the middle of the framework Brainstorm possible impacts that the idea/concept might have for the environment

21 FUTURE WHEEL - TOOL Source: Robert Curedale. Design methods 1: 200 ways to apply design thinking

22 WRITTEN SCENARIO - TOOL HOW? Create future scenarios around the development case for by following steps to 1. to 14. Source: Robert Curedale. Design methods 1: 200 ways to apply design thinking

23 WRITTEN SCENARIO - TOOL Source: Robert Curedale. Design methods 1: 200 ways to apply design thinking