MSETC NEEDS ASSESSMENT SERIES - SUMMER Pennsylvania. Marcellus Shale. Summer

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1 MSETC NEEDS ASSESSMENT SERIES - SUMMER 2011 Pennsylvania Marcellus Shale Workforce Needs Assessment Summer

2 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter1 PennsylvaniaStatewide MarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment June2011 Needsassessmentconductedby: MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter(MSETC) AcollaborationofPennsylvaniaCollegeofTechnology andpennstateextension MSETCTeam TracyL.Brundage ManagingDirector,WorkforceDevelopment& ContinuingEducation PennsylvaniaCollegeofTechnology JeffreyJacquet JacquetResearchandConsulting TimothyW.Kelsey,Ph.D. StateProgramLeader,EconomicandCommunity Development PennStateExtension ThePennsylvaniaStateUniversity JamesR.Ladlee CountyExtensionDirector,PennStateExtension DirectorofSpecialInitiatives,MarcellusShale Education&TrainingCenter ThePennsylvaniaStateUniversity JaniceLobdell Consultant LjLConsulting,LLC JeffreyF.Lorson DirectorofWorkforceTraining,MarcellusShale Education&TrainingCenter PennsylvaniaCollegeofTechnology LarryL.Michael ExecutiveDirector,Workforce&Economic Development PennsylvaniaCollegeofTechnology ThomasB.Murphy Co Director,MarcellusCenter foroutreachandresearch PennStateExtension ThePennsylvaniaStateUniversity MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter andpenncollege areregisteredintheu.s.patentandtrademarkoffice.

3 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment TableofContents TableofFigures...4 ExecutiveSummary...5 Introduction...9 MarcellusShaleNaturalGasPlay...9 StatewideDevelopmentProjections...14 SingleWellPadsvs.Multi WellPads...15 High BTUGas...18 IntroductiontotheNaturalGasIndustryWorkforce...19 LocationsandResidency...20 DrillingPhaseJobsvs.ProductionPhaseJobs...21 Pre drillinganddrillingphasejobs...21 ProductionPhaseJobs...21 TheMSETCWorkforceModel...22 Methodology...22 HistoryofThisWorkforceModel...23 Advantages,Limitations,andKeyAssumptionsoftheMSETCModelMethodology...24 Advantages:...24 Limitations:...25 KeyAssumptions:...25 KeyAssumptionsofHigh BTUGasWorkforceEstimates...25 KeyAssumptionsforFTEsforMultipleWellPads...26 NaturalGasWorkforceRequirementsInterviews,FocusGroups,andOnlineWorkforceAssessment...26 WorkforceModelResults...29 Full TimeWorkEquivalent(FTE)toDrillOneMarcellusShaleWell...29 ProductionPhaseFTEs...30 Direct JobCreation...30 StatewideDirectWorkforceRequirements...31 PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements...31 EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements...31 NortheastRegion MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter2

4 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements...33 EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements...33 SouthwestRegion...34 PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements...34 EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements...34 NorthwestRegion...35 PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements...35 EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements...35 OccupationalCategorieswithintheNaturalGasIndustry...36 Summary...37 References...38 Appendices...39 HighNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...40 HighSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...41 HighNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...42 LowPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...43 LowNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...44 LowSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...45 LowNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...46 HistoryoftheMarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter...51 Pre DrillingMatrix...53 Drilling&CompletionMatrix...55 ProductionPhaseMatrix MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter3

5 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment TableofFigures Figure1:MapofMarcellusShaleFootprint&Depth...10 Figure2:MapofMarcellusShaleWellsasofMarch31, Figure3:HistoricalandProjectedActivity&MedianEstimatedWorkforceRequirements, Figure4:MarcellusWellsDrilledbyRegion(andCounty)inPennsylvania...13 Figure5:MarcellusShaleDirectWorkforceAssessmentStudyArea...14 Figure6:WellsonMulti WellPads, Figure7:WellPadDevelopmentScenarios...17 Figure8:WellsDrilledonNewWellPads...18 Figure9:PhasesandTimelineofDevelopmentofMarcellusShaleNaturalGasWells...19 Figure10:GeneralEquationBehindWorkforceModel...23 Figure11:BiggestChallengestoFindingNewWorkers...28 Figure12:EducationandTrainingProgramsMostNeeded...28 Figure13:FTEbyPhaseandTypeofWell...29 Figure14:MedianPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...31 Figure15:MedianNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...33 Figure16:MedianSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...34 Figure17:MedianNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...35 Figure18:OccupationalCompositionofNaturalGasWorkforces...36 Figure19:HighPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...39 Figure20:HighNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...40 Figure21:HighSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...41 Figure22:HighNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...42 Figure23:LowPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...43 Figure24:LowNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...44 Figure25:LowSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...45 Figure26:LowNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...46 Figure27:EstimatedStatewideOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario...47 Figure28:EstimatedNorthwestOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario...48 Figure29:EstimatedSouthwestOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario...49 Figure30:EstimatedNorthwestOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter4

6 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment ExecutiveSummary ThePennsylvaniaMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessmentisintendedtosupplybaselinedatato provide individuals, job seekers, communities, businesses, workforce and economic development professionals, and government officials at all levels with the ability to estimate the direct workforce requirements for Marcellus Shale development. Specifically, the assessment can help outline the key occupations associated with unconventional natural gas development and the number of direct jobs requiredtobringamarcelluswellintoproductioninpennsylvaniabetween2011and2014. Over the course of nearly three years, the Marcellus Shale Education & Training Center (MSETC) has developedandrefinedthemethodusedinthisstudytoestimatethe direct workforcerequirements of the natural gas industry. Given the different development patterns across Pennsylvania, it is importanttohaveaworkforcemodelthatiseasilyadaptabletochangingdevelopmentscenarios.the methodologyfocusesonanalyzingthetypesandnumbersofworkersneededtodrillasinglemarcellus Shalegaswellandthenusesthedirectworkforcedatatoachieveatotalworkforcerequirementbased on estimates of future well drilling activity. At the core of the MSETC model is a full time equivalent (FTE)calculationforeachworkerassociatedwithdrillingasingleMarcellusShalewell.Themodelalso incorporateschangesindevelopmentpractices(singlevs.multi wellpads),infrastructuredevelopment (pipeline), and differing natural gas properties (dry gas vs. high BTU gas). The flexibility of a per well model significantly increases the predictive power of the model and the usefulness for business and workforceplanning.theworkforceestimateswithinthereportwerecreatedusinginterviews,anonline assessment, publicly available investor reports, and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection spermitandwellspudreports. MarcellusShaleisaverylargenaturalgasformationextendingacross95,000squaremilesandrunning throughroughlytwo thirdsofpennsylvaniaandportionsofnewyork,westvirginia,virginia,maryland, andohio.inpennsylvania,developmentofmarcellusshalebeganinwashingtoncountyin2004.over the next few years, the Marcellus development footprint quickly expanded to include significant portions of northeast Pennsylvania. Today, southwest Pennsylvania is increasingly being selected as a preferredlocationtoestablishappalachianbasinheadquartersforexplorationandproduction,service, andsupplycompanies.thehubofdrillingactivityinpennsylvaniahasbeenmoreheavilyconcentrated inthenortheastfor2010andthusfarin2011. The northeast region of Pennsylvania saw moderate growth during initial stages of Marcellus development with only 76 wells drilled in In the second half of 2009, development in the area begantorampupquicklywith332wellsdrilled.thecorecountiesofthenortheastregionhavequickly become a major Marcellus Shale development hotspot for the state of Pennsylvania, with 909 wells drilledin2010,andmorethan1,000expectedin2011. TheMarcellusShaleresourcealsoincludesthenorthwestregionofPennsylvania;however,duetothe shallower depth and thinner shale formation, most of the areas are currently considered outside the geologic MarcellusFairway.Anumberofenergycompanieshavebeendrillingexploratorywellsinthe area,andseveralcompanieshaveannouncedplanstodedicatedrillingrigsonthesouthernandeastern 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter5

7 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment frontsofthenorthwestregion.permittingactivityhasincreasedintheregionoverthepastfewyears, anddrillingactivityinthefirstfourmonthsof2011showcontinuedgrowthandsignificantpotentialfor commercialquantitiesofnaturalgasfromthenorthwestregion. With the recent dramatic increase in interest in high BTU gas and the premium price commanded for liquids richnaturalgas,thesouthwestregionappearspoisedforaresurgenceinshalegasdevelopment relatedtothemarcellus,utica,andotherupperdevonianshaleformations.acombinationoflimited natural gas infrastructure capacity and a need to develop lease holdings in non traditional natural gas areas of Pennsylvania appear to have resulted in a moderation of development growth in the region overthelastfewyears.naturalgasinfrastructurecapacitywouldincludeaneedforadditionalpipeline and processing facilities required to bring wet or high BTU gas to market. Although the pace of Marcellusdevelopmentwasslowerinthesouthwestfrom ,companiesactiveintheareahave madepublicstatementsthattheyintendtodramaticallyincreaseactivitywithinthesouthwestregionin 2011andbeyond.Infact,rigcountsandpermittingwithinthefirstfourmonthsof2011showactivity levelsshouldeclipse2010development. The 19 southeast counties of Pennsylvania are currently outside the Marcellus Shale footprint, but represent28%ofallpennsylvaniacountiesand58%ofthetotalpennsylvaniapopulation(census,2010). EventhoughoutsidethecoreMarcellusdevelopmentarea,thesoutheastportionofthestatewillstill likely benefit significantly from Marcellus business and workforce opportunities. Without direct Marcellusdrillingandcompletionactivitiesinthesoutheastregion,manyoftheworkforceandbusiness opportunities will likely provide services, support, and supply chain resources in support of energy explorationandproductionoperations.mostofthesesupportbusinesseswillbeabletomaintaintheir primarylocationsinthesoutheastregion,butcompanyfieldandoperationsstaffwillprovideservices withinthemarcellusfootprint.beingoutsidethemarcellusfootprintdoeschangetheoverallimmediate visibilityoftheworkforceimpact,buttheregionwillfacemanyofthesamechallengesasotherregions inpennsylvaniainattemptingtotakefulladvantageofmarcellusworkforceandbusinessopportunities. A few of the key workforce challenges across Pennsylvania include understanding the geographic distribution of the Marcellus industry, developing a basic understanding of natural gas development, developingadiversenetworkofenergysectorcontacts,andtakingadvantageofnaturalgassafetyand trainingopportunities. MarcellusShaledevelopmentinPennsylvaniaisexpectedtoincreaseincomingyears,butthestrength of Marcellus growth will continue to depend on the commodity price of natural gas, natural gas inventories,naturalgasinfrastructuredevelopment,naturalgasutilization,andtheoverallhealthofthe economy. Additionally, many areas will likely see increased natural gas activity, but development is expectedtocontinuetobeuneven.thecurrentmsetcdirectworkforceassessmentresearchsuggests Pennsylvaniadrillingactivityshouldincreasesignificantlystatewide.Onaregionalbasis,thesouthwest and northwest portions of the state will see the largest increases with development in the northeast region moderating slightly. Current estimates for statewide drilling activity include 1,599 Marcelluswellsin2011;1,888wellsin2012;2,009wellsin2013;and2,159wellsin2014.Thecompany drillingprojectionsindicatearoughannualgrowthrateindrillingactivityof6 18%,withanearly60% increaseinoverallactivityby MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter6

8 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment TobringasingleMarcelluswellonlinerequiresabout420individualsacross150differentoccupations. Eachphaseofnaturalgasdevelopmentincludesdifferentworkforcedemandsandvariesbasedonthe utilizationofmulti wellpadsandtheneedforadditionalnaturalgasinfrastructure.utilizing260eight hourdaysor2,080workhoursperyear,thefirstmarcelluswelldrilledonawellpadwillrequire full timeequivalent(fte)workersand FTEworkersforeachwelldrilledinsuccessionon thesamewellpad.fordevelopmentofasinglemarcelluswell,theinitialpre drillingphaseofnatural gas development represents about 18% of the entire workforce needed or 2.41 FTEs. The phase of naturalgasdevelopmentwhenthenaturalgaswellsaredrilledandthepipelineinfrastructureisputinto place is an extremely labor intensive process and represents about 80% of the workforce for a single well or FTEs. Finally, natural gas compression and processing requires about 2% of the overall workforceor FTEsdependingondry,wet,orhigh BTUnaturalgasprocessingneeds. BasedontheMarcellusdevelopmentin2010,theMSETCmodelwouldprojectroughly14,777direct jobswererequiredtocomplete1,368wells,anincreaseofnearly12,248newjobsover2008joblevels. AcrossthestateofPennsylvania,thetotalnumberofdirectnaturalgasdevelopmentjobs(notindirect orinducedjobs)createdbywellsdrilledbetween2011and2014iscurrentlyestimatedtorange between18,596and30,684ftejobs,creating9,800to15,900newjobsover2010levels,dependingon thetotalnumberofwellsdrilled. This assessment is based solely on the employees directly involved in developing a well and placing it into production and does not consider indirect or induced employment impacts. The projections are not intended to serve as a measure of the total employment created by Marcellus Shale natural gas development or to estimate the economic impact of such development. The findings of this report, therefore,shouldnotbecomparedtoemploymentestimatesofotherstudies,whichmostareintended to project the overall employment and economic impact of natural gas drilling in Pennsylvania using multipliers toestimatejobcreationinsectorsotherthanthosedirectlyassociatedwiththebringingof amarcelluswellintoproduction.thisreportprovidesthebestestimatecurrentlyavailableofworkers neededtobringamarcelluswellintoproductionandprojectedgrowthinlabordemandsaroundhigh priorityoccupationsfortheoilandgasindustry. Theutilizationofmulti wellpadsnotonlyreducesthesurfaceenvironmentalfootprintofawellpad,but also increases the efficiency of the natural gas exploration process and reduces the overall workforce needs by roughly 25%. The greatest multi well pad workforce impacts result from a roughly 73% decrease in the need for pre drilling occupations and a 16% decrease in drilling and completion jobs whentwoormorewellsaredrilledonthesamewellpad.ifallmarcelluswellsdevelopedweresingle wellpads,theworkforceneedswouldincreaselabordemandsbythousandsofadditionalworkers,but conversely the well pad surface footprint would also increase by six to ten times (depending on well spacing). Inactualityover98%ofnaturalgasexplorationanddevelopmentjobsarefoundinthepre drillingand drilling phase of bringing a well into production, and this segment of the workforce will no longer be neededoncetheprocessofdrillinggaswellsandaffiliatedinfrastructureinanareaiscompleted.inthe oil and natural gas industries, this drilling phase period is often referred to as the boom as vast 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter7

9 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment workforces are often suddenly required to perform tasks associated with natural gas development. Conversely,thedrillingphasecansuddenlydecline,whichisoftenreferredtoasthe thebust. Themajorityofthepre drilling,drilling,andproductionphasejobswillbelocatedinthevicinityofthe well being drilled. Office workers and some geologic scientists, engineers, and supervisors will be located at energy, service, and support company offices, which may or may not be located near the vicinityofthewellsiteorevenwithintheregion.inthedevelopmentofmarcellusitisimportanttonote thatmanyofthedrillingphasejobswillbegeographicallytemporary,meaningadrillingrigmovesfrom location to location, but the drilling phase jobs will continue to be stable jobs across much of the AppalachianBasinforanestimated30to50years. In contrast to drilling phase jobs, jobs associated with the production phase are well defined as the managementofanoperatingwell,generallyserveafixedgeographicarea,andwilllastthelifetimeofa producingmarcelluswell.evenifdrillingweretoceasecompletely,theproductionphasejobsnecessary to manage and maintain Marcellus wells would still be required for decades. In fact, many geologists believe the wells created as part of the Marcellus Shale development will likely produce commercial quantitiesofnaturalgasfor30yearsormore. As the Marcellus Play continues to mature, the industry has definitely moved towards hiring more Pennsylvania residents. Early in the development of the Marcellus, the natural gas industry relied heavilyonout of stateemployeeswithexperienceandknowledgedevelopinghigh pressurenaturalgas. Although Pennsylvania drilled its first oil well in 1859, fluctuations in the commodity market and the prospects of stronger commercial gas fields in other areas drew much of the industry talent to other states.whenmarcellusexplorationandproductionbegantoramp up,therewastremendouspressure tofindemployeeswithsomelegacynaturalgasknowledge.theearlystagesofdevelopmentfoundas many as 70 80% of the employees from outside Pennsylvania. Although there is still tremendous variability across energy, service, and support companies, this study s interview and survey data indicatesanaverageof65 75%ofallnewMarcellusworkersarePennsylvaniaresidents. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter8

10 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Introduction ThePennsylvaniaMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessmentisintendedtosupplybaselinedatato provide individuals, job seekers, communities, businesses, workforce and economic development professionals, and government officials at all levels with the ability to estimate the direct workforce requirements for Marcellus Shale development. Specifically, the assessment can help outline the key occupations associated with unconventional natural gas development and the number of direct jobs requiredtobringamarcelluswellintoproductioninpennsylvaniabetween2011and2014. MarcellusShaleNaturalGasPlay Marcellus Shale is a very large natural gas formation extending across 95,000 square miles, running throughroughlytwo thirdsofpennsylvaniaandportionsofnewyork,westvirginia,virginia,maryland, and Ohio(Figure 1). In Pennsylvania, development of Marcellus Shale began in Washington County in Over the next few years, the Marcellus development footprint quickly expanded to include significantportionsofnortheastpennsylvania.southwestpennsylvaniaisincreasinglybeingselectedas a preferred location to establish Appalachian Basin headquarters for exploration and production, service, and supply companies. The hub of drilling activity in Pennsylvania has been more heavily concentrated in the northeast for 2010 and thus far in Today, more than 2,800 Marcellus wells havebeendrilledinpennsylvania(figure2). Energy companies continue to invest billions of dollars in exploration and production programs throughout Pennsylvania. Investments by industry include securing mineral rights and land, drilling, productionstimulation,pipeline,compressorstations,processing,andavarietyofotherinfrastructure investments necessary to realize the potential of Marcellus Shale. In 2010, two of the world s largest energy firms purchased large stakes in Marcellus Shale, and nearly all of the major firms active in the areacontinuetoplanexpansionsoftheirdevelopmentoperationsbeyond2011. ThereasonsfortheplannedMarcellusexpansionbyexplorationandproductioncompaniesareduetoa numberoffactorsincluding,butnotlimitedto,therelativeinfancyoftheplay,thecloseproximityof largeconsumermarkets,proximitytomajortransmissionlines,andtheextremeamountofnaturalgas thoughttoberecoverable.theamountoftotalrecoverablenaturalgaslocatedwithintheformationis currentlyunknown,althoughrecoverablegasestimatesformarcellusshalehaverecentlyrangedfrom 262to489trillioncubicfeet(EIA,2011;Englander,2009).Regardlessoftheestimates,mostgeologists placetherecoverablegasreservepotentialamongthelargestinthenationandpossiblytheworld. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter9

11 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Source:MarcellusCenterforOutreachandResearch,PennState Figure1:MapofMarcellusShaleFootprint&Depth Source:MarcellusCenterforOutreachandResearch,PennState Figure2:MapofMarcellusShaleWellsasofMarch31, MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter10

12 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Marcellus Shale development within Pennsylvania first occurred with significant intensity in the southwestregion,withthefirstwelldrilledbyrangeresourcesllcin2004inwashingtoncountyand corresponding gas production in 2005 (Harper, 2008). Shortly after Marcellus development began in southwest Pennsylvania, the hub of drilling activity quickly shifted to the northeast region of Pennsylvania(Figures 3 and 4). With the recent dramatic increase in interest in high BTU gas and the premium price commanded for liquids rich natural gas, the southwest region appears poised for a resurgenceinshalegasdevelopmentrelatedtothemarcellus,utica,andotherupperdevonianshale formations. A combination of limited natural gas infrastructure capacity and a need to develop lease holdingsinnon traditionalnaturalgasareasofpennsylvaniaappearstohaveresultedinamoderation ofdevelopmentgrowthintheregionoverthelastfewyears.naturalgasinfrastructurecapacitywould includeaneedforadditionalpipelineandprocessingfacilitiesrequiredtobring wet orhigh BTUgasto market. Although the pace of Marcellus development was slower in the southwest from , companies active in the area have made public statements that they intend to dramatically increase activity within the southwest region in 2011 and beyond. In fact, rig counts and permitting within the firstfourmonthsof2011showactivitylevelsshouldeclipse2010development.additionally,allegheny andwashingtoncountiesalsoappeartobeemergingasafutureenergyhubontheeastcoastwitha veryhighconcentrationofoilandgasrelatedbusinesseslocatingappalachianbasinoperationsthere. The northeast region of Pennsylvania saw moderate growth during initial stages of Marcellus development, with only 76 wells drilled in 2008, but expanded dramatically in 2009 and In the secondhalfof2009,developmentintheareabegantorampupquicklywith332wellsdrilled.thecore countiesofthenortheastregionhavequicklybecomeamajormarcellusshaledevelopmenthotspotfor thestate,with909wellsdrilledin2010andmorethan1,000expectedin2011. ThesoutheastregionofPennsylvaniaisoutsidethecurrentlydefinedMarcellusShalefootprint.Given the geographic proximity to the play, location of the Appalachian Basin and regional company headquarters, and a large workforce base, southeast Pennsylvania will experience some workforce demand in key core and ancillary occupations related to shale gas growth. Although, not as easy to quantify,thesoutheastregionwilllikelyseeanincreasedneedforconstructionworkers,retailworkers, mechanics,engineers,welders,commercialtruckdrivers,geologists,andmore. MuchofthenorthwestregionofPennsylvaniacontainsMarcellusShale,butduetotheshallowerdepth and thinner shale formation most of the areas are currently considered outside the primary geologic MarcellusFairway.However,anumberofenergycompanieshavebeendrillingexploratorywellsin the area, and several companies have announced plans to dedicate drilling rigs on the southern and easternfrontsofthenorthwestregion.permittingactivityhasincreasedintheregionoverthepastfew years, and drilling activity in the first four months of 2011 show continued growth and significant potentialforcommercialquantitiesofnaturalgasfromthenorthwestregion. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter11

13 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Figures 3 and 4 provide a breakdown of the number of wells drilled by region and by county across Pennsylvania. HistoricalandProjectedDrillingActivity& MedianEstimatedWorkforceRequirements, Southwest Northeast Northwest Pennsylvania Wells Rigs FTEs Wells Rigs FTEs Wells Rigs FTEs Wells Rigs FTEs , , , , , , , ,080 1, , ,095 1, , ,401 1, , ,062 1, , ,940 1, , ,734 1, , ,985 2, , ,350 1, , ,008 2, ,644 Figure3:HistoricalandProjectedActivity&MedianEstimatedWorkforceRequirements, MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter12

14 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment MarcellusWellsDrilledbyRegion NortheastRegion SouthwestRegion County 2011* County 2011* Bradford Allegheny Carbon Armstrong Centre Beaver Clinton Bedford Columbia Blair Juniata Butler Lackawanna Cambria Luzerne Fayette Lycoming Fulton Mifflin Greene Monroe Huntingdon Montour Indiana Northumberland Somerset Pike Washington Schuylkill Westmoreland Snyder TotalSW: Sullivan NorthwestRegion Susquehanna County 2011* Tioga Cameron Union Clarion Wayne Clearfield Wyoming Crawford TotalNE: Elk Erie StatewideTotals: Forest Source:PennsylvaniaDepartmentofEnvironmental Jefferson Protection.*2011DatathroughMay1,2011 Lawrence McKean Mercer Potter Venango Warren TotalNW: Figure4:MarcellusWellsDrilledbyRegion(andCounty)inPennsylvania Finally,itshouldbenotedthatwhiletheworkforcenumbersintheassessmentreflectthegeographic borders of Pennsylvania divided into four regions (northeast, northwest, southeast, and southwest) withinthestate(figure5),marcellusdevelopmentdoesnotstopatthestateborderandencompasses most of the Appalachian Basin. It also should be noted there are no job estimates for the southeast regionofpennsylvaniabecausenowellsarebeingdrilledinthatregion.marcellusworkforceactivityin thesoutheastwillbeprimarilylimitedtoservice,support,andsupply chainindustries.themajorityof thepre drilling,drilling,andproductionphasejobswillbelocatedinthevicinityofthewellbeingdrilled. Someexamplesofjobsthatmayormaynotbelocatednearthevicinityofthewellsiteorevenwithin theregioncouldincludeofficeworkers,geologists,engineers,andsupervisors. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter13

15 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Figure5:MarcellusShaleDirectWorkforceAssessmentStudyArea StatewideDevelopmentProjections While region specific sections are discussed, overall Marcellus Shale development in Pennsylvania is expected to increase in coming years as development growth occurs in the southwest and northwest regionsanddevelopmentinthenortheastregionremainssteady.basedoninterviewsandsurveydata from energy companies, as well as from information gleaned from investor statements and public disclosures,currentestimatesfor statewidedrillingactivityinclude1,599Marcelluswellsin 2011;1,888wellsin2012;2,009wellsin2013;and2,159wellsin MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter14

16 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Actual/ProjectedMarcellusShaleWellsDrilledPerYearbyRegion Northwest Northeast Southwest WellsDrilledPerYear (Actual) 2009 (Actual) 2010 (Actual) Table1:Actual/ProjectedMarcellusShaleWellsDrilledPerYearbyRegion 2011 Year SingleWellPadsvs.Multi WellPads Thedirectworkforceassessmentmodelusedtodetermineworkforceneedsisbasedonthenumberof occupations and full time equivalent (FTE) workers needed to bring a single Marcellus well into production. Over the last 18 months, the industry has shown a marked increase in the utilization of multi well pads. Multi well pads actually reduce the potential surface footprint of natural gas developmentandincreasetheefficiencyoftheexplorationprocess.whileincreasingefficiency,theuse of multi well pads does decrease the overall required workforce. The amount of FTE savings really depends on how many wells are drilled consecutively on a single well pad. Wells that are drilled on existing pads require a smaller workforce for land clearing, pipeline construction, and equipment operationonaperwellbasis. AccordingtotheDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection s spudreports,thetotalnumber ofwellsspudded(started)asofmay15,2011,included2,966wells.aftercorrectingforduplicatewell records and eliminating wells where a usable coordinate system could not be identified, 2,824 wells wereidentifiedforinclusioningeo spatialanalysisofwellpaddevelopmentinthemarcellusplay.well padswereidentifiedusinga250 footbufferaroundeachwellhead,meaningifanothermarcelluswell waswithin250feetthereisaveryhighlikelihoodthatthewellsareonthesamewellpad(figure6). 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter15

17 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Based on a geo spatial analysis of drilling locations performed by the MSETC team for this study, it is estimatednowellsdrilledin2007werewithin250feetofanothermarcelluswelloronamulti wellpad, butby2011upwardsof78%ofthewellsdrilledwereonawellpadwithatleastoneothermarcellus well(figure6).sixty fivepercent(65%)ofwellsdrilledin2011weredrilledonnewmulti wellpads,13% weredrilledonpadscreatedinpreviousyears,and22%arecurrentlysinglewells. WellsDrilledonMulit WellPads * 80% 76% 78% 70% 60% 55% 50% 40% 30% 20% 16% 10% 0% 0% Figure6:WellsonMulti WellPads, * *2011datacurrentthroughMay MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter16

18 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment If we look at multi well pad development over time, our research revealed that about 17% of the Marcellussinglewellpadsconstructedin2007ultimatelyendedupasmulti wellsites.jumpingaheadto 2010,1,380totalwellsweredrilled,126wells(9%)weredrilledonpreviouslyconstructedwellpads,325 wells(24%)wereonnewsinglewellpads,and929wells(67%)weredrilledonnewlyconstructedmultiwellpads(figure7).ifwefocusonthe1,254wellsdrilledonnewwellpadsconstructedin2010,wefind 74% of new wells were drilled on multi well pads, and 26% of new wells were drilled on a single well pad.in2010,atotalof580newwellpadswereconstructedwith56%ofnewwellpadsholdingonlyone well (325 wells) and 44% holding two or more wells drilled on the same pad (929 wells) within a calendar year. Several variables can affect the development of multi well pads; however, under the currentdevelopmentscenariosmulti wellpadscertainlydominatecurrentproductionplans. WellDevelopmentScenarios WellsDrilledOnPreviouslyConstructedWellPads WellsDrilledonaNewSingle WellPad WellsDrilledonaNewMuli WellPad WellsDrilledOnNewlyConstructedWellPads TotalWellsDrilled Figure7:WellPadDevelopmentScenarios One other important question to consider when analyzing workforce estimates and the process for developing multi well pads is how many wells are actually being drilled per well pad in a given year. Riggingupforonewell,drillingawell,riggingdown,andcomingbacktothesamewellpadatalater dateisfarmorelaborintensivethandrillingandcompletingmultiplewellsallatthesametime. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter17

19 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Ofthe580wellpadsconstructedin2010,255(44%)weredevelopedasmulti wellpadswhile325(56%) hadonlyonewellwhentheywereoriginallyconstructed.today,ofthosesame580wellpads,271are multi well pads, and 309 are still single well pads. Although there were more single well pads constructedin2010,about76%ofthedrillingactivitytookplaceonamulti wellpad.roughly18%of wellsweredrilledonatwo wellpad,12%onathree wellpad,9%onafour wellpad,7%onafive well pad,and31%weredrilledonasix wellormorepad(figure8). 100% WellDrillingTrends % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ormore Figure8:WellsDrilledByWellPadType High BTUGas Abigfactorintheprojectedincreaseofdrillingactivityinthesouthwestregionisduetotheeconomic attractivenessofliquids rich,high BTUgasfoundinpartsoftheMarcellusShalelocatedinsouthwestern Pennsylvania. High BTU gas requires large processing facilities to extract liquids such as oil and heavy gasoline and to fractionate other gas compounds found within the produced methane. The result of high BTU gas processing is a multitude of saleable products that can significantly raise the return on investment and produce potentially higher profits under lower natural gas commodity prices. Some media reports have labeled the attractiveness of high BTU gas as a Race to Liquids as companies devote significant resources to liquid rich areas (Braziel, 2010). Like many aspects of natural gas 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter18

20 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment development,thecontinuedattractivenessofhigh BTUgaswilllikelyremainvariableanddependenton anumberofdifferentfactors,includingcommodityprice. Theexactboundaryofwetvs.drygasisunclearatthistime,althoughwet/high BTUgasisunderstood to be principally found in western Pennsylvania (Figure 1). Projecting development activity that will occur specifically within the high BTU gas region is more difficult. Permitting activity reported by the PennsylvaniaDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection,aswellasdiscussionswithoperatorsinthearea, suggestthatbetween60 75%ofthewellsdrilledinthesouthwestregionwithinthenextseveralyears maybeliquids rich,high BTUgasthatrequiresadditionalprocessing. IntroductiontotheNaturalGasIndustryWorkforce TheMarcellusShaledevelopmentprocessdifferssignificantlyfromthatofPennsylvania slongtradition of extracting shallow gas and oil. Due to differences in geology, technology, and energy company practicestheextractionofmarcellusshalerequiresmoreemployeesandsignificantlygreaterinputand utilization of supplies, materials, and equipment (Figure 9). Marcellus Shale gas is considered unconventional becausetheformationrequiresdirectionaldrilling,productionstimulation,andother methodstoproducecommercialquantitiesofnaturalgas.theseprocessesaremuchmoreindustrialin nature, labor intensive, and technologically advanced than conventional shallow gas development. Unconventionalnaturalgasshalesarealsoknownasacontinuousgeologicalformation.Asacontinuous formation, unconventional shale does require higher technology inputs but also reduces the development risk found in conventional formations, which rely on finding pockets of natural gas. Additionally, the energy companies and contractors that initially developed and utilized the unconventional shale drilling and extraction technology were mostly national or international companies and primarily utilized contractors and personnel with legacy shale gas knowledge from aroundthecountryandfromotherpartsoftheworldtobegindevelopingmarcellusshale. ExtractionTimeline Lifespantotalingapproximately30 50years PipelineConstruction Constructiontimedependsonpipelinelength Permitting Drilling NaturalGasProduction Upto2mos days Wellscanbeproductiveovera30 50yearperiod Pre Drilling Drilling&Completion Production/Reclamation GeologyStudies StakingWell Production Stimulation Reclaiming Uptosixmonths 30 60days 1 2wks. 1month+ MineralRights 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter Figure9:PhasesandTimelineofDevelopmentofMarcellusShaleNaturalGasWells History has shown that predicting future trends of the natural gas industry can be challenging and estimatingtheworkforcerequirementsofthisparticularindustryrepresentsanevengreaterchallenge. Naturalgasdevelopmenttrendscanbedifficulttopredictascommodityprices,technologicalchanges, 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter19

21 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment newplaysdevelop,andotherfactorscanchangetheintensityandscopeofexplorationratherquickly. Additionally,awidearrayofenergycompaniesandanevenwiderarrayofsubcontractorscomprisethe industry, and the resulting complex web of occupational needs and workforce requirements can be difficult to estimate even under ideal circumstances. Additionally, the industry challenges the general definition of an industry sector and local worker, as employees supporting natural gas development workacrossavarietyofindustrysectorsandoftenworkinmultiplelocationswithinaregiontodevelop hundreds of different wells and infrastructure projects. Furthermore, industry employees will sometimeswork12 hourshiftsforweeksatatimeandthenbeaffordedseveralcontinuousweeksof leavewhileanentirelynewcrewtakestheirplace. LocationsandResidency Due to the inherent uncertainty of development intensity, as well as the need to work at multiple locations,manyoftheinitialmarcellusshale relatedworkersremainedtransientresidentsoftheregion and kept their permanent residency at a location hundreds or even thousands of miles away. As the Marcellus Play continues to mature, the industry is moving towards a workforce that contains fewer transientworkersandmorepermanentpennsylvaniaresidents. Since many contractors and subcontractors are accustomed to working at multiple and changing locationsthroughoutnorthamericaandtheworld,itiscommonplacewithinthenaturalgasindustryto initially utilize non local workers and supply chain services. However, as development moves forward over the course of months and years, contractors and subcontractors will either relocate to the local area, or local businesses will be created to meet industry needs. National and international drilling companies,gasfieldservicecompanies,andgasfieldconstructionfirmshavealreadyopenedregional officesinsouthwestandnortheastpennsylvania.manyofthesecompaniesinitiallybroughtanexternal workforcewiththemtothearea,butareintheprocessofreplacingthisworkforcewithlocalworkersas opportunitiesarise.inaddition,manycompaniesthathavehistoricallycateredtoconventionalshallow naturalgasandoilfielddevelopmenthavesignificantlyaugmentedtheirbusinessestoincludeworkin MarcellusShale. As the Marcellus Play continues to mature, the industry has definitely moved towards hiring more Pennsylvania residents. Early in the development of the Marcellus, the natural gas industry relied heavilyonout of stateemployeeswithexperienceandknowledgedevelopinghigh pressurenaturalgas. Although Pennsylvania drilled its first oil well in 1859, fluctuations in the commodity market and the prospects of stronger commercial gas fields in other areas drew much of the industry talent to other states.whenmarcellusexplorationandproductionbegantoramp up,therewastremendouspressure tofindemployeeswithsomelegacynaturalgasknowledge,andtheearlystagesofdevelopmentfound as many as 70 80% of the employees were from outside Pennsylvania. Although there is still tremendousvariabilityacrossenergy,service,andsupportcompanies,basedonrecentinterviewsand surveydatathepercentageofnewindustryhireswhoarepennsylvaniaresidentstodayrangesfrom50 100%withanapproximateaverageof65 75%ofnewMarcellusworkersbeingPennsylvaniaresidents.A PennsylvaniaresidentwasdefinedasanemployeewhohaslivedinPennsylvaniaforatleastoneyear andholdsavalidpennsylvaniadriver slicense.inaseparateanalysisofresidencydatausingwageand 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter20

22 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment employment records for workers in the gas and oil industry in Pennsylvania, the Pennsylvania DepartmentofLaborandIndustryfoundthat71%ofnewhiresin2010innaturalgascoreandancillary industriesoperatinginthemarcellusshaleregionwerefrompennsylvania(mukherjee,2010). DrillingPhaseJobsvs.ProductionPhaseJobs Thenaturalgasdevelopmentprocessissuchthatalargeproportionofthetotalindustryworkforcewill berequiredduringthewelldrillingphase,whileasmallminorityoftheworkforcewillberequiredfor thelong termproductionphase.pre drillinganddrillingphasejobsaregroupedtogetherforpurposes ofthissectionoftheassessment. Pre drillinganddrillingphasejobs Thephaseofnaturalgasdevelopmentduringwhichthenaturalgaswellsaredrilledandtheassociated pipelineinfrastructureisputintoplaceisanextremelylabor intensiveprocess.inactualityover98%of naturalgasexplorationanddevelopmentjobsarefoundinthepre drillinganddrillingphaseofbringing awellintoproduction,andthissegmentoftheworkforcewillnolongerbeneededoncetheprocessof drilling gas wells and affiliated infrastructure in an area is completed. In the oil and natural gas industries, this drilling phase period is often referred to as the boom as vast workforces are often suddenly required to perform tasks associated with natural gas development. Conversely, the drilling phase can suddenly decline, which is often referred to as the the bust. Given the level of mobility required,manyemployeesinthedrillingphaseofgasdevelopmentmaintaintemporaryresidencyina givenarea suchasinmotels/hotels,rvs, mancamps,monthlyapartment/houseleases,etc. No one can accurately estimate how long the drilling phase will last within Marcellus Shale or within specificareasoftheshaleformation.drillingphaseestimateshaverangedfrom10to70years,whichin partreflectsuncertaintycreatedbyfuturefluctuationsincommodityprices,economicconditions,and technological changes, among other variables. A number of drilling scenarios are possible for future Marcellusdevelopment,andtheyincludearelativelyquickflurryofactivitythatsubsideswhendrilling movestoanotherlocation,highintensitydrillingthatjumpsfromhotspottohotspot,andmoderateand sustaineddrillingacrosstheappalachianbasinlastingfordecades.eachdevelopmentscenariochanges thedirectworkforceneeds,localworkforcerequirements,andopportunitiesforbusinessdevelopment andentrepreneurship. ProductionPhaseJobs In contrast to drilling phase jobs, jobs associated with the production phase are well defined as the managementofanoperatingwell,generallyserveafixedgeographicarea,andwilllastthelifetimeofa producingmarcelluswell.evenifdrillingweretoceasecompletely,theproductionphasejobsnecessary to manage and maintain Marcellus wells would still be required for decades. In fact, many geologists believe the wells created as part of the Marcellus Shale development will likely produce commercial quantitiesofnaturalgasfor30yearsormore. Withintheindustry,careersassociatedwiththeproductionphaseareoftenreferredtoaslong termor even permanent.occupationsduringtheproductionphasetendtobelesslaborintensive,withfewer 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter21

23 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment hazards involved, and more specialization than development phase occupations, while still retaining excellent salary and benefits. Jobs associated with production activities almost always result in local residencyandoftenutilizelocalworkforces. Thedurationoftheproductionphasewillvaryfromregiontoregion.Inthewesternpartofthestate, for example, the high BTU gas that is present in the majority of the natural gas offers additional opportunitiesforlocalproductionphasejobs.theseadditionalnaturalgasprocessingopportunitiesare notpresentinotherareasofthestate.localhigh BTUnaturalgasprocessingisneededtofractionateor remove non methane compounds(non natural gas such as butane, ethane, propane, etc.) and liquids (oil, water, heavy gasoline, etc.) that naturally occur in the natural gas. Similar to other natural gas production, high BTU processing facilities and jobs will remain stable for the life of the well and significantly longer than drilling operations. Occupations associated with high BTU gas production are somewhatsimilartootherproductionphaseoccupationsandincludecompressoroperations,pipeline maintenanceandtechnicians,informationtechnology,gaugemonitoring,supervisorypositions,process engineers,loaders/testers,etc. TheMSETCWorkforceModel Given the complex web of occupations that constitute the natural gas industry workforce, traditional methods of measuring future job creation used in other industries are often inadequate. Many of the industriesthatparticipateinthedevelopmentofanaturalgasfieldareusuallynotpresentinthearea before the natural gas development process begins; thus capturing their workforce needs using most workforceprojectionmodelsisineffectiveatbestgiventhereisnolocalbaselinedata.similarly,given theuncertaintyinnaturalgasdevelopment,jobestimatespredicatedsolelyonpostedjobopeningsor industry questionnaires while providing an accurate snapshot of current demand are largely inflexibletotheconstantlychangingintensityofdevelopmentactivity.finally,giventheintenseuseof subcontractors by most exploration and production companies, using a strict definition of local as a municipal boundary or industry as only a natural gas industry economic code does not accurately reflect the complexity, interconnectedness, and the true scope of natural gas related jobs and opportunities. Methodology Overthecourseofnearlythreeyears,theMarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter(MSETC)team hasdevelopedandrefinedthemethodusedinthisstudytoestimatetheworkforcerequirementsofthe naturalgasindustry.themethodologyfocusesonanalyzingthetypesandnumbersofworkersneeded to drill a single Marcellus Shale gas well and then extrapolates that data to achieve a total workforce requirement based on estimates of future well drilling. At the core of the MSETC model is a full time equivalent(fte)calculationforeachworkerassociatedwithdrillingasinglemarcellusshalewell.anfte foreachworkeris260eight hourdaysor2,080hoursperyear.manytasksthatoccurduringthewell development process may only require a few workdays to complete. Therefore, the per well work requirementformostoftheoccupationalcategoriesrangedfrom1/10to1/100ofanfte.somevery 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter22

24 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment labor intensive occupations such as heavy equipment operation, office staff, and drilling rig operation (roughnecks)constitutedanequivalentthatrangedbetween1/10toasmanyastwo(2)ftesperwell. DeterminingfractionalFTEnumbersforeachworkerdirectlyassociatedwithdrillinganaturalgaswellis acomplexandtimeconsumingprocess.ftenumbersforthemajorityofoccupationsinvolveidentifying the number of workers in a particular occupation or work crew and then determining the number of daystheworkerstypicallyspendonawellsiteorinsupportofwellsitedevelopment.ftenumbersfora portionoftheoccupations includingpipelineconstruction,landclearing,officestaff,etc. arehighly variablefromcompanytocompanybasedonspecificconditions;therefore,roughaverageswereused toreducethedifferencesincompanydevelopmentpractices. AcriticalelementintotalworkforceprojectionformulausedintheMSETCmodelisthenumberofwells drilled by a single drilling rig in a given year. In research across both Pennsylvania and Texas, it was determined a large rotary rig drills about 12 wells per year. The efficiency of drilling operations in Pennsylvaniahasdefinitelyincreasedbyroughly20%overthelastthreeyears.Theutilizationofmultiwellpads,anincreaseinthenumberofbuilt for purposemarcellusrigs,andtheincreaseinlocaldrilling knowledgehaveallcontributedtothisincreasedefficiency. TheaveragenumberofworkdaysforoneFTEworkerisequalto260.AMarcellusShaledrillingrigwilldrill12wells peryearonaverage,whichhasincreasedfrom10wellsperyearinpreviousmodels. Figure10:GeneralEquationBehindWorkforceModel HistoryofThisWorkforceModel In 2009, the MSETC team worked closely with representatives from a number of energy firms, drilling companies, and subcontractors operating in the Northern Tier and Central regions of Pennsylvania to produce a workforce needs assessment for the Central Pennsylvania Workforce Development Corporation, Northern Tier Regional Planning and Development Commission, through Pennsylvania DepartmentofLaborandIndustryPartnershipfunding.Duringtheinitialassessmentprocess,nearly150 occupationalcategoriesand/orskillgroupswereidentified. Inthespringof2010,theMSETCteamperformedin depthinterviewswithmanyofthemajormarcellus Shale energy companies, drilling companies, and service providers operating in the southwest region. The exploration and production companies interviewed represent slightly more than 88% of all permitting activity in These discussions were designed to revise or reconfirm the data obtained in the 2009 study and to identify differences in industry practices and jobs in the southwest region.tosolidifytheinterviewdata,themsetcteamcreatedanonlineworkforceneedsassessmentin the summer of 2010 for gas industry representatives. Thirty (30) respondents completed the online workforceassessment. For this report, the MSETC team performed interviews in early 2011 with Marcellus Shale energy companies, drilling companies, and service providers throughout Pennsylvania to update previously obtainedworkforceinformationandexpandthedatatoincludeastatewidefocus.in depthinterviews 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter23

25 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment wereperformedwitheightcompanies.additionally,anonlinesurveyinstrumentwasdistributedto346 individuals across 175 different companies, of which 62 individual responses/46 company responses were returned. Of the 46 industry responses, 13 exploration and production companies returned the survey representing over 76% of all drilling activity in Other company respondents included 3 servicecompanies,4drillingcompanies,3constructioncompanies,and23supportcompanies. Ineachofthestudies,amajorstepincreatingaviableworkforceprojectionmodelistoestimatefuture drillingrigactivity.forthisreport,inadditiontoworkingwithenergyoperatorsandsubcontractors,the MSETC team reviewed investor statements, press releases, and public statements made by energy company officials regarding their plans for future drilling activity in the region. The results from companyinterviewsandtheonlineworkforceassessmenthelpedtoconfirmtherig/drillingestimates. Advantages, Limitations, and Key Assumptions of the MSETC Model Methodology TheMSETCmodelallowstheusertoidentifyaprojectedlevelofdevelopmentintensityasmeasuredby wellsdrilledperyear(theinput)andprojectthenumberofworkersbasedonoccupationalcategories (theoutput)requiredfortheexpectedlevelofdevelopment. For the purposes of assessing potential workforce needs and workforce development capabilities, this typeofmodelissuperiortoanumberofdifferentmethods;however,thismodelstillhasanumberof differentlimitations.theassessmentisbasedsolelyontheemployeesdirectlyinvolvedindevelopinga wellandplacingitintoproductionanddoesnotconsiderindirectorinducedemploymentimpacts.the projectionsarenotintendedtoserveasameasureofthetotalemploymentcreatedbymarcellusshale naturalgasdevelopmentortoestimatetheeconomicimpactofsuchdevelopment.thefindingsofthis report,therefore,shouldnotbecomparedtoemploymentestimatesofotherstudies,whichmostare intendedtoprojecttheoverallemploymentandeconomicimpactofnaturalgasdrillinginpennsylvania using multipliers to estimate job creation in sectors other than those directly associated with the bringingofamarcelluswellintoproduction.thisreportprovidesthebestestimatecurrentlyavailableof workers needed to bring a Marcellus well into production and projected growth in labor demands aroundhighpriorityoccupationsfortheoilandgasindustry. Theadvantages,limitations,andkeyassumptionsofthemodelandmethodologyfollow. Advantages: Offersmuchmorespecificoccupationaldescriptionsthangeneric industrialclassifications Doesnotinclude/excludebasedonindustrialclassifications Usesdirectworkerrequirements,notcompleximputationsofrequirements Doesnotinclude/excludebasedonthegeographiclocationsofbusinessoffices Doesnotrelyprimarilyonsamplingorresponserates(suchassurveys) Caneasilybechangedasdevelopmentscenariosfluctuate 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter24

26 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Allowsfortriangulationofmultipledatasources Accountsfordifferencesinsinglewellandmulti wellpadworkforceneeds Includesdifferencesinhigh BTUanddrygasworkforcerequirements Limitations: Does not (currently) calculate the specific workplace locations of all the occupations; most occupationswilloccuratthedevelopmentsite,butotheroccupationsmayoccurelsewherein thestateorcountry Does not(currently) specifically calculate or define indirect or induced economic or workforce impacts of these jobs (e.g. additional jobs created by businesses providing this indirect or supply chain support, such as for parts and materials, maintenance and repair, equipment, janitorial services, office supplies, etc., and additional jobs created by the workers spending theirincome) Does not differentiate the type of labor force (i.e. corporate, individual business owner, organizedlaborshops,openshops,etc.) Doesnotincludemanyindirectorsupply chainindustriesorworkforces Doesnotprovidebusiness specificinformationsuchasname,size,location,etc. Doesnotincludeallworkers/contractors(suchasallcontractedlegalservices) KeyAssumptions: Full timeequivalent(fte)isdefinedat260eight hourworkdaysor2,080hoursperyear Averagedrillingrigdrillsapproximately12wellsperyear Each single well or first well will require, on average, one mile of pipeline construction (Additionalwellsonamulti wellpadwillnotrequirepipelineconstructionbeyondconnection) Onecompressorstationwillbeconstructed,onaverage,forevery20wells Companies currentdrillingrigprojectionsarerelativelyaccurate(forthe median development scenarios) KeyAssumptionsofHigh BTUGasWorkforceEstimates The workforce associated with high BTU gas processing facilities located in portions of western PennsylvaniaandWestVirginiadonoteasilyconformtoaper wellestimate,asthesejobsaredirectly tiedtothevolumeofnaturalgasproductionandnotnumbersofwellsdeveloped.asdrillingoperations expandinanarea,thevolumeofnaturalgasproducedshouldalsoincrease.increasedvolumemeansan increased need for natural gas processing and associated jobs in high BTU areas. However, if drilling levels off or declines, the volume of natural gas needing to be processed will also decline potentially 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter25

27 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment reducing the number of processing jobs. Additionally, Marcellus wells have a relatively steep decline curve,meaningthenumberofnaturalgasjobsisnotonlytiedtoincreasesinnaturalgasvolumebased onnewdrilling,butdeceasesinvolumeasawellages.understandingthesesomewhatcomplexvolume calculationsandusingdetailedinterviewswithgasprocessingcompanies,themsetcmodelbasedthe high BTUprocessingworkforceestimatesonthefollowingassumptions: Roughly60%ofwellsdrilledinsouthwestPennsylvaniawillbelocatedinhigh BTUgasareas TheproductionfacilitycapacityandstaffingisapproximatelyoneFTEforevery7.5millioncubic feetofgasprocessedperday Each well will follow an average production curve of Year 1: 4.5MMcf/d; Year 2: 1.1MMcf/d; Year3:700Mcf/d;Year4:560Mcf/d;Year5:470Mcf/d Theexpectedultimaterecovery(EUR)foranaverageMarcelluswellwillbe3.5billioncubicfeet (BCF)ofnaturalgas KeyAssumptionsforFTEsforMultipleWellPads Over the last two years, the key exploration and production companies have clearly started to realize theefficiencyofconstructinganddrillingmulti wellpads.whilethedevelopmentstrategyofmulti well pads does vary significantly from company to company the overall emerging trend is clearly toward multi welldevelopment.infact,76%ofallwellsdrilledin2010wereonapadwithatleastoneother well(929wellsweredrilledonnewwellpadsconstructedin2010,and126wellsweredrilledonwell pads constructed in 2008 or 2009). Based on the efficiency of multi well pads, the MSETC model uses thefollowingworkforceassumptions: Pre drillingjobsdecreaseby73%forsubsequentdrillingoperationsonthesamewellpad Drillingandcompletionjobsdecreasebyroughly16%forsubsequentdrillingoperationsonthe samewellpad Productionoperationsworkforceremainroughlythesame Partiallydevelopedpadswillnothavethesameworkforceefficiency;however,fewerthan8% (224wells)ofallMarcelluswellsdevelopedto dateweredrilledonpreviouslyconstructedwell pads Natural Gas Workforce Requirements Interviews, Focus Groups, and OnlineWorkforceAssessment A comprehensive understanding of the natural gas development exploration and production, service, and support companies is necessary to build an accurate workforce model. Across all three direct workforcestudiescompletedtodate,22companiesweredirectlyinterviewed,morethan40companies participatedinthreefocusgroupsessionsrelatedtotheconstructionandevaluationoftheoccupational matrix, and more than 100 online assessment responses were returned to help build and confirm the 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter26

28 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment occupational skills and FTE workers. Again, the purpose of the interviews and online workforce assessmentwastoobtainprojectionsofdrillingactivity,re affirmkeyoccupationandfteassumptions oftheworkforcemodel,andprovideabasistotriangulatedifferentdatasources. In general, the results of the online workforce assessment confirmed much of the interview data regarding well development projections, workforce development, and assumptions about workforce needs. While the respondents to the online workforce assessment remained anonymous, respondent estimatesofwelldevelopmentactivitywithinthenextfiveyearswereverysimilartopublishedreports andin personinterviewswithoperators. Online workforce assessment results regarding questions about workforce development and hiring practicesrevealedsimilarresultstothe2009msetcreportandhistoricaldatafromothernaturalgas plays.companiesindicatedfindingindividualswiththeproperworkethic,generalmechanicalaptitude, andgeneralexperiencewithintheindustryremainedthelargestbarrierstofindinglocalworkers(figure 11). Most respondents indicated they used some type of training programs, with the vast majority indicatinganeedforindustrialcertifications,vocationaltraining,ortechnicalcollege(figure12).these findings are consistent with the occupational matrix that shows over 75% of the Marcellus workforce willneedahighschooldiplomaoraspecializedcertificationsuchasapi1104downhandweldingora commercialdriver slicense. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter27

29 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment BiggestChallengestoFindingNewWorkers Figure11:BiggestChallengestoFindingNewWorkers EducationandTrainingProgramsMostNeeded Figure12:EducationandTrainingProgramsMostNeeded 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter28

30 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Specificoccupationalareasthathaveshownthegreatestdemandincludegeneralandsemi skilledoffice staff, engineering and geology related occupations, and supervisory roles throughout a range of differenttypesofcompanies. WorkforceModelResults Full TimeWorkEquivalent(FTE)toDrillOneMarcellusShaleWell TheMSETCmodelrevealsthatover420individualsworkingacrossnearly150differentoccupationsare needed to perform all the operations required to complete and produce gas from a single Marcellus Shalewell.Thetotalhoursworkedbytheseindividualsaretheequivalentof13.10FTEdirectjobsover thecourseofayearfordrygaswells.oftheseftes,12.9arerequiredduringthepre drillinganddrilling phase,while0.19arerequiredduringtheproductionphase.foradditionalwellsdrilledonapreviously constructedwellpad,thetotalftesrequireddropsto9.64.ofthe9.64ftes,0.65arerequiredduring pre drilling, 8.81 during drilling, and 0.19 during production phase. As is discussed in the following section,thefteforhigh BTUgaswellswillchangeovertime. Figure13:FTEbyPhaseandTypeofWell Itisimportanttonotethatpre drillinganddrillingphasejobsforeachwelldonotcompoundyearafter year.theseworkersarerequiredonlywhilewellsarebeingdrilledandareafunctionofthenumberof wellsbeingdrilledeachyear.forexample,if100singlewellsaredrilledperyear,thenthetotaldrilling phase workforce will be 1,290. If 100 single wells are drilled per year for 10 straight years, the total drilling phase workforce will still remain very close to 1,290. Although these jobs follow the drilling developmentandthetruelengthofactivityremainsuncertain,drillingjobs,whilegeographicallyshortterm, may still be long term Pennsylvania jobs depending on the development scenario (sustained, hotspot,orflurrydevelopmentoutlinedpreviously). 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter29

31 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Thevastmajorityofjobsdirectlyassociatedwiththestaking,scoping,permitting,engineering,logging, clearing, drilling, moving, finishing, cementing, completing, and producing a well are included in the estimate, as well as the majority of jobs required to clear, dig, and construct collector pipeline and compressor station infrastructure for the well. The workforce estimate includes the vast majority of occupationsdirectlyassociatedwiththedrillingandcompletionprocess,butdoesnotincludemanyof the indirect jobs that will be created in a variety of occupations ranging from legal advice to gravel quarryingtosteelpipefabrication. ProductionPhaseFTEs Whilethevastmajorityofjobsassociatedwiththenaturalgasindustryoccurduringthepre drillingand drilling phase, a number of jobs are associated with monitoring the long term health and production capabilityofanaturalgaswell.theseproductionjobswillberequiredforaslongaswellsareproducing commercial quantities of natural gas, which is currently estimated by university scientists and the exploration and production companies in Marcellus Shale to be over a 30 to 40 year period. The workforcemodelestimatesthat0.19oftheselong term,full timejobsarecreatedforeachdrygaswell drilledinagivenfield(orapproximatelyoneworkerforeveryfivewellsdrilled),and0.39jobsforevery high BTUwelldrilledoverthenextfiveyears.Productionjobsdocompoundeachyearasmorewellsare drilled,whileprocessingjobswillbeinfluencedbythevolumeofnaturalgasproduced.forexample,if 100drygaswellsweredrilledperyearfor10years,19oftheselong termjobswouldbecreatedeach year,foratotalof190long termjobscreatedafter10years.inadditiontobeinglong terminnature, these jobs typically retain the excellent salary and benefits found in natural gas development but are generallylesshazardousandlesslaborintensivethanjobsassociatedwiththedrillingphase. Jobs associated with high BTU gas processing also increase as the volume of natural gas increases; however,theamountofrequiredworkersperwellwilldecreaseovertimeasthevolumeofgasthatis producedfromawellalsodecreases.approximately0.20processingjobsarecreatedperhigh BTUgas wellforthefirstfiveyearsofproductionfromawell,whileoverthe30 yearlifeofawelltheaverage FTEcalculationforgasprocessingonaperwellbasismaybecloserto0.02.However,sincethisreportis limited to a 2014 time horizon, 0.2 FTEs per well are used to extrapolate total workforce estimates. Duringthedrillingphaseofdevelopment,newwellswillcontinuetobedrilled;therefore,eventhough the amount of production for each well is decreasing, the total gas production within a region may continuetoincreaseandthusrequirealargerworkforceuntildrillingactivityslows. Direct JobCreation Aspreviouslynoted,thejobsprojectedinthisassessmentareonlythosedirectlyassociatedwithdrilling andcompletingamarcellusshalenaturalgaswellandrelatedpipelineconstruction.jobsthatarenot directlyassociatedwiththeindustrialprocessarenotincludedinthismodelandareoutsidethescope ofthisreport.sincetheanalysisfocusesonthespecificjobsrequiredfordrillingandproductionwithout regardtoformalindustrysectors,itwouldbeillogicaltoapplyworkforceoreconomicmultiplierstoit, whichtypicallyarebaseduponspecificindustrysectors. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter30

32 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment StatewideDirectWorkforceRequirements MedianPennsylvaniaScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase Pre Drilling Drilling Producion NumberofWorkers Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure14:MedianPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements ApplyingtheMSETCworkforceprojectionmodeltothepreviousandcurrentlevelsofdevelopmentin Pennsylvania shows an estimated equivalent of 2,528 direct jobs (or FTEs) created throughout Pennsylvania in 2008, increasing to 14,777 FTEs in Using the well development projections discussed in previous sections, it is estimated that between 13,224 and 21,710 FTE jobs would be required in 2011, with approximately 17,467 FTE jobs being the median workforce development estimate based on development projections given by energy companies. The number of production phasejobscreatedbetween2008and2011isestimatedfrom843to1,075,with959beingthemedian estimate,dependingondrillingactivityduringtheremainderof2011. EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements Themodelindicatesthatthenumberofjobswillincreasebetween2011to2014alongwithincreased levelsofdrillingactivity.basedonthemarcellusdevelopmentin2010,themsetcmodelwouldproject roughly14,777directjobswererequiredtocomplete1,368wells,anincreaseofnearly12,248newjobs over2008joblevels.theftedirectworkforceisexpectedtoincreaseby1,000to11,000newjobsover 2010levelsbytheendof2012,andusingthemedianandhighestimatesthemodelprojectsbetween 9,800and15,900newjobsbytheendof2014.Thetotaldirectworkforceneededtomeetcurrent MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter31

33 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment drilling predictions will likely fall between 15,788 and 25,994 total workers. By 2014, the total direct workforcenumberisexpectedtorangefrom18,596to30,684dependingonthedevelopmentactivity, with24,644representingamediandirectworkforceestimate. Thetotalnumberofproductionphasejobs(includinggasprocessing)createdbywellsdrilledbetween 2011 and 2014 will total between 1,879 and 2,822 FTE jobs, depending on the total number of wells drilled. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter32

34 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment NortheastRegion MedianNortheastScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase NumberofWorkers Pre Drilling Drilling Producion Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure15:MedianNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements ApplyingtheMSETCworkforceprojectionmodeltothepreviousandcurrent2011welldrillingactivityin Bradford,Carbon,Centre,Clinton,Columbia,Juniata,Lackawanna,Luzerne,Lycoming,Mifflin,Monroe, Montour, Northumberland, Pike, Schuylkill, Snyder, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Union, Wayne, and Wyoming Counties indicated that approximately 956 FTE direct jobs were created in 2008 and that numberincreasedto9,664by2010.in2011,itisestimatedthatbetween8,290and13,652ftedirect jobswouldberequired,with10,971ftejobsbeingthemedianworkforceestimate.itisestimatedthat thenumberoflong termproductionphasejobscreatedbetween2008andtheendof2010waslikely around248jobs. EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements Themodelindicatesthenumberofjobswillincreaseoverthefour yearperiodfrom2011to2014.the FTEdirectworkforceisexpectedtoincreaseslightlyasdrillingintheregionstabilizesoverthenextfew yearsandwillrequirebetween8,979and14,799workersby2012,with11,899requiredworkersbeing themedianestimate.by2014,thetotaldirectworkforcerequirementsmayrangefrom9,276to15,294 dependingonthedevelopmentactivity,with12,285workersbeingthelikelyworkforceestimate. Thetotalnumberofproductionphasejobs(includinggasprocessing)createdbywellsdrilledbetween 2011and2014willtotalbetween603and928FTEjobs,dependingonthetotalnumberofwellsdrilled. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter33

35 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment SouthwestRegion NumberofWorkers MedianSouthwestScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase Pre Drilling Drilling Producion Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure16:MedianSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements ApplyingtheMSETCworkforceprojectionmodeltothepreviousandcurrent2011welldrillingactivityin Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair, Butler, Cambria, Fayette, Fulton, Greene, Huntingdon, Indiana, Somerset, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties indicated that approximately 1,333 FTE direct jobs were created in 2008, and that number increased to roughly 4,032 in In 2011, it is estimatedthatbetween3,875and6,316ftedirectjobswouldberequired,with5,095ftejobsbeing themedianworkforceestimatebasedondevelopmentprojections.ofthesejobs,thenumberoflongterm production phase jobs created between 2008 and 2011 will be between 398 and 521, with 460 beingthemedianestimatebasedon2011developmentinformationandanassumptionof60%ofthe wellsdrilledwillrequiregasprocessing. EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements Themodelindicatesthenumberofjobswillincreaseoverthethree yearperiodfrom2011to2014.the FTEdirectworkforceisexpectedtoincreaseasdrillingintheregionincreaseswithinthenextfewyears tobetween5,346and8,779workersrequiredby2012,with7,062requiredworkersbeingthemedian estimate.by2014,thenumbermayrangefrom7,806to12,888dependingonthedevelopmentactivity, with10,350workersbeingthelikelyworkforceneeded. Thetotalnumberofproductionphasejobs(includinggasprocessing)createdbywellsdrilledbetween 2011 and 2014 will total between 575 and 1,053 FTE jobs, depending on the total number of wells drilled. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter34

36 NorthwestRegion PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment MedianNorthwestScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase Pre Drilling Drilling Producion NumberofWorkers Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure17:MedianNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements ApplyingtheMSETCworkforceprojectionmodeltothepreviousandcurrent2011welldrillingactivityin Cameron, Clarion, Clearfield, Crawford, Elk, Erie, Forest, Jefferson, Lawrence, McKean, Mercer, Potter, Venango,andWarrenCountiesindicatedthatapproximately249FTEdirectjobswerecreatedin2008, and that number increased to 1,080 by In 2011, it is estimated between 1,059 and 1,338 FTE direct jobs would be required, with 1,080 FTE jobs being the median workforce estimate based on current development projections. Of the direct jobs, the number of production phase jobs created between2008and2011willlikelyfallbetween53and65basedondrillingin2011thusfar. EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements Themodelindicatesthatthenumberofjobswillincreaseoverthefour yearperiodfrom2011to2014. As drilling in the region continues to increase, the FTE direct workforce is expected to increase to between1,464and2,417workersrequiredby2012andremainsrelativelystablethrough2014,based oncurrent drilling projections. These projections may change or increase significantly if drilling shifts stronglytothenorthwest. Thetotalnumberofproductionphasejobs(includinggasprocessing)createdbywellsdrilledbetween 2011and2014willtotalbetween94and157FTEjobs,dependingonthetotalnumberofwellsdrilled. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter35

37 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment OccupationalCategorieswithintheNaturalGasIndustry The model and related research found the majority of the occupations in the direct workforce associatedwithmarcellusshalenaturalgasdevelopmentarecomprisedofrelativelylow skilledorsemiskilled occupations. These occupations account for roughly 70 80% of the workforce (Figure 18). Industry representatives, online workforce assessment respondents, and additional research indicated thatmostoftheseoccupationsrequirenoformalpost secondaryeducationandonlyafew(suchascdl, welding, X ray, etc.) require a specialized license or trade certification; however, nearly all of them requiretheskillsandknowledgeuniquetothenaturalgasindustry;skillsandknowledgethatareusually learned through on the job experience. Workers within all occupations of the natural gas industry are additionally praised for their hard work ethic and willingness to work very long hours in unfavorable conditions. Many of the remaining 25% of workers are in occupations that are white collar in nature, including supervisors, lawyers, realtors, engineers, and geologists that usually require post secondary education. Natural Gas Workforce Occupations by Category Semi SkilledTech. 6% GeneralOffice 20% CDL 10% Landmen/Realty 5% Inspectors 1% Supervisors 5% GeneralLabor 20% Engineers 3% X Ray 1% Timber Logging 1% Welders 3% Cartog/GIS 1% Lawyers 4% HeavyEquipment 17% Paralegal 1% Geologists 3% Figure18:OccupationalCompositionofNaturalGasWorkforces 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter36

38 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Summary ThePennsylvaniaMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessmentisintendedtosupplybaselinedatato provide individuals, job seekers, communities, businesses, workforce and economic development professionals, and government officials at all levels with the ability to estimate the direct workforce requirements for Marcellus Shale development. Specifically, the assessment can help outline the key occupations associated with unconventional natural gas development and the number of direct jobs requiredtobringamarcelluswellintoproductioninpennsylvaniabetween2011and2014. ThecurrentMSETCdirectworkforceassessmentresearchsuggestsPennsylvaniadrillingactivityshould increasesignificantlystatewide;however,therewilllikelybevariationindevelopmentpatternsacross the state. Additionally, the strength of Marcellus growth will continue to depend on the commodity price of natural gas, natural gas inventories, natural gas infrastructure development, natural gas utilization,andtheoverallhealthoftheeconomy.onaregionalbasis,thenortheastregioniscurrentlya drillinghotspotwithnearly75%ofalldrillingactivity,butgrowthisexpectedtoslowsomewhatinthe comingyears.thenorthwestregionhasbeenslowtodevelop,butoverthecomingyearsalikelyuptick inactivityisprojectedforthesouthernandeasternportionsoftheregion.inthesouthwestregion,the mostdramaticdrillingincreasesareprojectedtotakeadvantageofhigh BTUgasandnaturalgasliquids options. Finally, the southeast region is currently outside the Marcellus footprint, but exploration and productionactivitieswilllikelydrawontheworkforceexpertiseofthesoutheastacrossawiderangeof occupations.currentestimatesfor statewidedrillingactivityinclude1,599Marcelluswellsin 2011;1,888wellsin2012;2,009wellsin2013;and2,159wellsin2014.Thecompanydrillingprojections indicate a rough annual growth rate in drilling activity of 6 18%, with a nearly 60% increase in overall activityby2014. TheMSETCmodelrevealsthatover420individualsworkingwithinnearly150differentoccupationsare neededtoperformalltheoperationsrequiredtocompleteandproducegasfromasinglemarcellus Shalewell.Thetotalhoursworkedbytheseindividualsistheequivalentof13.10FTEdirectjobsover thecourseofayearfordrygasareasand13.3fteinhigh BTUgasareas.OftheseFTEs,inbothdrygas andhigh BTUgasareas,12.9FTEsarerequiredduringthepre drillinganddrillingphasewhile0.19are requiredduringtheproductionphase.anadditional0.20ftesarerequiredtoprocesshigh BTUnatural gas.acrossthestateofpennsylvania,thetotalnumberofdirectnaturalgasdevelopmentjobs(not indirectorinducedjobs)createdbywellsdrilledbetween2011and2014iscurrentlyestimatedtorange between18,596and30,684ftejobs,creating9,800to15,900newjobsover2010levels,dependingon thetotalnumberofwellsdrilled. As the Marcellus Play continues to mature, the industry has definitely moved toward hiring more Pennsylvania residents. Early in the development of the Marcellus, the natural gas industry relied heavilyonout of stateemployeeswithexperienceandknowledgedevelopinghigh pressurenaturalgas. Althoughthereisstilltremendousvariabilityacrossenergy,service,andsupportcompanies,thisstudy s interviewandsurveydataindicatesanaverageof65 75%ofallnewMarcellusworkersarePennsylvania residents. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter37

39 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment References Braziel, Rusty Drilling budgets shift to high BTU gas, oil Oil and Gas Financial Journal. July16,2010. Engelder,Terry Marcellus2008:Reportcardonthebreakoutyearforgasproductionin theappalachianbasin, FortWorthBasinOilandGas.August2009edition,Abilene,TX; pp Harper, John A The Marcellus Shale An Old New Gas Reservoir in Pennsylvania. PennsylvaniaGeology,38(1). Murkerjee, Sue Presentation to the Economic & Workforce Development Workgroup, PreparedfortheGovernor smarcellusshaleadvisorycommission,april14,2010. The Pennsylvania Economy League of Southwestern Pennsylvania, LLC (PELSP) The Economic Impact of the Oil and Gas Industry in Pennsylvania, Prepared for the Marcellus Shale of Committee. Available Online: United States Census Bureau, (2011). American FactFinder. Retrieved June 19, 2011, MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter38

40 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Appendices HighPennsylvaniaScenario MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase HighPennsylvaniaScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase NumberofWorkers Pre Drilling Drilling Producion Year Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure19:HighPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter39

41 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment HighNortheastRegionScenario MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase HighNortheastScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase Pre Drilling Drilling Producion NumberofWorkers Year Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure20:HighNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter40

42 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment HighSouthwestRegionScenario MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase HighSouthwestScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase NumberofWorkers Pre Drilling Drilling Producion Year Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure21:HighSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter41

43 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment HighNorthwestRegionScenario MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase HighNorthwestScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase Pre Drilling Drilling Producion NumberofWorkers Year Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure22:HighNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter42

44 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment LowPennsylvaniaScenario MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase LowPennsylvaniaScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase NumberofWorkers Pre Drilling Drilling Producion Year Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure23:LowPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter43

45 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment LowNortheastRegionScenario MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase LowNortheastScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase NumberofWorkers Pre Drilling Drilling Producion Year Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure24:LowNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter44

46 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment LowSouthwestRegionScenario MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase LowSouthwestScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase Pre Drilling Drilling Producion NumberofWorkers Year Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure25:LowSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter45

47 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment LowNorthwestRegionScenario MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase LowNorthwestScenario: MarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase Pre Drilling Drilling Producion NumberofWorkers Year Actualvs.ProjectedDevelopment Figure26:LowNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter46

48 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Workers 6000 EsdmatedPennsylvaniaOccupadonalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario Welders&helpers X Ray&tech CDL Gen.Labor HeavyEquipment Geologists Lawyers Paralegal Cartog/GIS TimberLogging Engineers Inspectors Supervisors Occupadons Semi SkilledTech. GeneralOffice Figure27:EstimatedStatewideOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario Landmen/Realty 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter47

49 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Workers EsdmatedNorthwestOccupadonalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario Welders& helpers X Ray&tech CDL Gen.Labor HeavyEquipment Geologists Lawyers Paralegal Occupadons Figure28:EstimatedNorthwestOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario Cartog/GIS TimberLogging Engineers Inspectors Supervisors Semi Skilled Tech. GeneralOffice Landmen/Realty 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter48

50 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Workers 2500 EsdmatedSouthwestOccupadonalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario Welders&helpers X Ray&tech CDL Gen.Labor HeavyEquipment Geologists Lawyers Paralegal Cartog/GIS TimberLogging Engineers Inspectors Supervisors Occupadons Semi SkilledTech. GeneralOffice Figure29:EstimatedSouthwestOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario Landmen/Realty 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter49

51 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Workers 3000 EsdmatedNortheastOccupadonalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario Welders&helpers X Ray&tech CDL Gen.Labor HeavyEquipment Geologists Lawyers Paralegal Cartog/GIS TimberLogging Engineers Inspectors Supervisors Occupadons Semi SkilledTech. GeneralOffice Figure30:EstimatedNorthwestOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario Landmen/Realty 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter50

52 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment HistoryoftheMarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter As a primary provider of education and technology resources in the region, the Marcellus Shale Education&TrainingCenter(MSETC)wasanearlypioneerineffortstodeterminethepotentialimpact ofanemergingoilandnaturalgasindustryasthemarcellusshaleplayhasdevelopedinpennsylvania. InNovember2008,PennCollege(throughitsWorkforceDevelopment&ContinuingEducationunit)and Penn State Extension partnered to form the Marcellus Shale Education & Training Center (now headquartered on the Penn College campus in the Center for Business & Workforce Development in Williamsport,PA). Among the first initiatives undertaken by the MSETC team was to research and publish a document assessing workforce needs for the developing Marcellus related oil and natural gas industry. The workforceassessmentdocumentandmoreinformationaboutmsetcinitiativesareavailableonlineat assessmentsutilizingtheirsuccessfulworkforceprojectionmodel. These workforce assessments made it clear that significant new employment opportunities are emerging and that there is a need for more training and education related to the industry needs throughouttheappalachianbasin. In addition to the multiple research projects, the MSETC team has developed several short term, noncredit,workforcetrainingprogramsthatmeetspecificindustryneedsandprovideopportunitiesfor local residents to train for positions in the industry. To date, more than 2,500 individuals have participated in noncredit training programs developed by the MSETC team and offered at locations in Williamsport,Wellsboro,andareasacrosstheAppalachianBasin.Classesofferedinclude: DefensiveDriving Fit4NaturalGasPre employmenttraining(roustabout) CommercialDriverTraining API1104DownhandWelding SafeLandUSA CertifiedOperationsTechnician OSHARoughTerrainForkliftTraining NaturalGasDevelopmentandProductionOverview OSHA10 HourConstruction MSETChasdeliveredtrainingforcurrentemployeesofcompaniesworkingintheMarcellusindustryand forcompaniespositioningforworkintheregion.specializedclienttraininghasbeenofferedinwelding, 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter51

53 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment commercialdriving,andsafetytohelpareacompaniesgainacompetitiveadvantageinsecuringwork relatedtomarcellusshale.todate,msetchastrainedworkersfrommorethan180companies. Programsalsohavebeenofferedtothearea sdislocatedandunemployedworkerswhomaybelooking to enter careers associated with the industry. MSETC, in partnership with regional One Stop offices (CareerLinks) and regional workforce investment boards(wibs), offers a three week, pre employment programtohelptheseindividualsgainentry levelpositionsintheindustry.theprogram calledfit4 NaturalGas providesentry leveltechnicalandjob readinessskills. Fit 4 Natural Gas has been offered in communities across the Marcellus Shale region in central, northcentral, and northeastern Pennsylvania (including Tioga, Bradford, Lycoming, Clinton, and Susquehanna Counties). The model of integrating CareerLink services with technical training is being replicated,expanded,anddisseminatedacrossamulti stateregionthroughacollaborationofeducation andtrainingprovidersknownasshalenet.additionalpre employmentnoncredittrainingwillsoonbe availableforfloorhands,productiontechnicians,andwelderhelpersthroughcertifiedshalenettraining providersacrosstheregion. Anadditional20companieshavepledgedcashandequipmenttosupportthefuturedevelopmentofa MSETC Natural Gas Applied Technology and Safety Training facility at Penn College. This facility is scheduled to open in October 2011 and will provide hands on training for Pennsylvania s first responders and emergency responders as well as other training programs that require the installed equipment. MSETChasparticipatedinoriginatingFederalandStategrantstotaling$17.6millionandmorethan$6 million has already been awarded to support the natural gas industry s training and workforce developmentneeds.othermajorinitiativestosupporttheindustryincludesponsoringasemi annual MarcellusCareerExpo(over2,500attendedthefirstevent)andanannualShaleNETWorkforceForum that brings together industry, education, and public sector organizations involved in workforce developmentinitiativesacrossthemarcellusplay. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter52

54 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Pre DrillingMatrix NaturalGasExtractionJobMatrix Pre DrillingPhase(continuedonnextpage) 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter53

55 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment NaturalGasExtractionJobMatrix Pre DrillingPhase(continued) 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter54

56 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Drilling&CompletionMatrix NaturalGasExtractionJobMatrix DrillingPhase(continuedonnextpage) 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter55

57 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment NaturalGasExtractionJobMatrix DrillingPhase(continuedonnextpage) 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter56

58 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment NaturalGasExtractionJobMatrix DrillingPhase(continuedonnextpage) 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter57

59 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment NaturalGasExtractionJobMatrix DrillingPhase(continued) 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter58

60 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment ProductionPhaseMatrix NaturalGasExtractionJobMatrix ProductionPhase(continuedonnextpage) 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter59