Unpacking Path Dependency Evidence from Patent Citation Networks in Wind Power

Transcription

1 Unpacking Path Dependency Evidence from Patent Citation Networks in Wind Power Joern Huenteler, Jan Ossenbrink, Tobias S. Schmidt, Volker H. Hoffmann ETH Zurich, D-MTEC, Chair of Sustainability and Technology (SusTec)

2 Introduction Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance To tackle sustainability issues many countries employed different policy instruments While on the deployment side they very effectively spurred demand for clean energy technologies, the extent to which they influenced the natural development is highly disputed Enforced market diffusion entails a trade-off between a) The benefit of achieving dominant designs in key elements of a technology b) The threat of creating lock-ins into premature technological configurations How have deployment policies affected the technological diversity in the wind industry?

3 Case Selection Market diffusion of wind turbines was largely driven by deployment policies, e.g. by feed-in-tariffs This support has made wind power arise as one of the fastest growing renewable energy technologies worldwide Its (modern) history comprising more than four decades allows for longitudinal analysis Wind farm in Lower Saxony, Germany, July 2008 Picture taken and CC licensed by Philip May

4 Overview of the approach 1. Engineering perspective 2. Patent perspective 3. Policy perspective $ $ $

5 Results 1/3 Design hierarchy of wind technology Main category Sub category Type of innovation Rotor < radical Subcategories of e.g. Rotor 1 What is the basic design / concept of the product? Power train 2 What is the best way to implement this design? 3 How do the components interact? Turbine Wind farm incremental >

6 Results 2a/3 Network of top wind patents 1. Reduce number (skewed distribution) 2. Find a scheme that allows for interpretation (visual)

7 Wind farm Turbine Power train Rotor Results 2a/3 Network of top wind patents

8 Wind farm Turbine Power train Rotor Results 2a/3 Network of top wind patents Node: Arrow: Patent Citation

9 Results 2b/3 grey: Node:Difference Patentin application date 5 years (size = accumulated path weight) Network of top wind patents blue: in application Arrow:Difference Citation date >5 years (size = path weight) Rotor red: Main path Wind farm Turbine Power train

10 Wind farm Turbine Power train Rotor Results 2c/3 Innovation fields in the network Node: Patent (size = accumulated path weight) Arrow: Citation (size = path weight) Rotor blades and rotor speed control Variable speed power train systems Grid

11 Rotor Power train Turbine OECD Deployment policy funding [m$_2008] Wind farm Results 3/3 Deployment support vs average hierarchy level Weighted average hierarchy level

12 Discussion of findings & synthesis Engineering perspective Patent perspective (development paths) Policy perspective $ $ $ Result 1: The design hierarchy has turned out to be robust to critical review by industry experts? (applicable to other contexts) Result 2: Leeway for interpretation of causality chains i. Deployment policies -> diffusion -> proof of lock-ins & incremental innovation instead of evolution of radically new concepts Implication: using market-pull instruments is nonsense as they inhibit new conceptual trajectories to emerge ii. Deployment policies -> diffusion -> dominant designs & occurrence and solving of unprecedented bottlenecks Implication: diffusion policies create markets where no natural niches exist; using these is necessary to allow for learning processes on a system level (complex interaction of a multitude of different actors along the value chain) Result 3: Technology development and market growth must be regarded as a co-evolutionary process (correlation vs causality)

13 Thank you very much References (not printed in Book of Abstracts) Barberá-Tomás, D., Jiménez-Sáez, F., Castelló-Molina, I., Mapping the importance of the real world: The validity of connectivity analysis of patent citations networks. Research Policy 40, Hoppmann, J., Peters, M., Schneider, M., Hoffmann, V.H., The Two Faces of Market Support How Deployment Policies Affect Technological Exploration and Exploitation in the Solar Photovoltaic Industry. Research Policy Forthcoming. Murmann, J.P., Frenken, K., Toward a systematic framework for research on dominant designs, technological innovations, and industrial change. Research Policy 35, Nemet, G.F., Demand-pull, technology-push, and government-led incentives for nonincremental technical change. Research Policy 38, Peters, M., Schneider, M., Griesshaber, T., Hoffmann, V.H., The impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies on technical change Does the locus of policies matter? Research Policy 41, Von Wartburg, I., Teichert, T., Rost, K., Inventive progress measured by multi-stage patent citation analysis. Research Policy 34,