Institute for Futures Research

Transcription

1 Institute for Futures Research Technology and Innovation: Embracing and managing technology s role in innovation 20 October 2011 Introduction Contextual Environment Transactional Environment Organisation 1

2 Contextual Environments Technology Activity 1 Define one technology (be as specific as possible) that will potentially impact on the environment in which your organisation operates. Society Institutional Political Economic How many of the technologies that you listed could be broadly classified as belonging to: a) Information and communication technologies b) Transport technologies c) Energy technologies d) Materials technologies e) Bio technologies f) System that consists of at least two of the above? (Natural) Environment LO1: Technology is not IT! There are many technologies that will impact organisations, often also the combination of these different technologies into new systems Technology?! Technology?! 2

3 Defining technology (I) Artefacts / Tools Organising / Application Technology Skills / Knowledge Technology is the systematic application of organised knowledge to resources to produce goods or services Stillwell Defining technology (II) Technology is competence, created by people, and expressed in devices, procedures and human skills Van Wyk, 2004 Classification of technology? Most disciplines have scientifically based categorisation that simplifies the research and management thereof Chemistry: Periodic table Nature: Plants, Animals... Technology? Many attempts No generally accepted classification...? Technology is in need of a unifying concept to aid in its comprehension Farrell,

4 Functional classification for Technology Ways of handling (activities) Process Transport Store Matter IFR typology of technology Bio technologies Energy technologies Information and communication technologies Materials technologies Aspects handled Energy Transport technologies Information Van Wyk, 2004 The importance of technology (I) The importance technology Technology and Productivity? Structural factors impacting on productivity increases Technology 38.1% Capital 25.4% Labour quality 14.3% Economies of scale 12.7% Resource allocation 9.5% Hunt, 1988 It finds that the recent increase in productivity growth does appear to arise from an increase in technological change. Basu, Fernald & Shapiro,

5 The importance of technology (II) Technological transformations We conclude that the post 2000 productivity gains do not appear to have been driven directly by IT. Stiroh & Botsch, 2007 Technological transformation (Origin) 1 st The Industrial Revolution (Britain) There is a direct correlation between the substantial changes in both material technology and construction productivity over the past several decades. Goodrum, Zhai & Yasin, 2009 recommendation to increase investments in information technology in order to increase productivity of banks. Stella, nd The Age of Steam and Railways (Britain, spreading to Europe and the USA) 3 rd The Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering (USA and Germany overtake Britain) 4 th The Age of Oil, Synthetics and Mass Production (USA, spreading to Europe) 5 th The Age of Information and Telecommunications (USA, spreading to Europe and Asia) ? Perez, 2002 Activity 2 Do you think that technology will make an impact on your organisation, and industry, in the future? Resource View Strategy Technology Environmental View Learning outcome 2: Technology, in all its multiple forms will continue to impact organisations, industries, countries and the world itself 5

6 Why manage technology? Technology available GAP Technology in use Narrowing the gap: Examples So how do we deal with this? Credibility Gap (Consumer leads) Technology available Used by consumer Used by organisation Perception Gap (Supplier leads) Technology available Used by supplier Used by organisation 6

7 Technological analysis Exploratory forecasting Using the tools at the disposal of the modern manager to: Establish what transpired in the past Make sense of what is currently known Extrapolate into the future from a sound scientific basis Very broad classification of technology forecasting methods Exploratory Normative Understand the past Recognise the trend Extrapolate the future Careful not to miss possible limits!??? Technological trends Curves of growth Natural or physical limit Growth curve for a given technology Performance parameter Introduction Rapid growth Maturity Strongly impacted by Investment Substitution Adoption Performance parameter Time and effort Time 7

8 Curves of growth: Example Normative forecasting Sales per period Old (VHS tape) Home Entertainment Technology Current (DVD) Emerging (BluRay) Video on demand...? Set desired technical (future) objective Although it is not accurately known if the objective is really achievable Work backwards to determine developments required to make this possible Examples: I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth. Time Antonymous vehicles Explorative and Normative Roberts,

9 Activity 3 What is the single worst strategy to employ when managing technology? Hint: It is fairly common amongst some senior managers in organisations today Nothing in the world is more dangerous than a sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. Martin Luther King Learning outcome 3: The greatest ignorance is to reject something you know nothing about What is Innovation? (I) Popular definitions The act of introducing something new The American Heritage Dictionary What is Innovation? (II) People implementing new ideas to create value Innovations Network ( A new idea, method or device Merriam Webster Online Idea Do The successful exploitation of new ideas UK Department of Trade and Industry Value 9

10 Types of innovation (I) Different kinds of innovation (classified by impact) Incremental innovation Something is adapted or modified; organisations continuously improve their products and services to keep ahead of the competition Radical innovation Completely new ideas; a major breakthrough, often as a result of technological invention, that offsets industry as a whole Systems innovation New functionality by assembling products or delivering a service in new ways Example: Insurance products combined with the internet as a distribution model to remove the insurance brokers from the product value chain Types of innovation (II) Different kinds of innovation (classified by position in the VC) Product Innovation New products (goods or services) or improvements on products, or new bundles of products Process Innovation Where some part of the transformation process is improved to bring benefit. This could be in facilities, processes and in human resources. Positioning Innovation An organisation positions itself completely differently re its value add in the market Activity 4 Some local innovations Is innovation a new concept, something that is part of the modern world and that requires new ways to deal with? Some things are hurrying into existence, and others are hurrying out of it. And of that which is coming into existence, part is already extinguished. Motions and changes are continually renewing the world. When? Who? 10

11 Is innovation a new concept, something that is part of the modern world and that requires new ways to deal with? Some things are hurrying into existence, and others are hurrying out of it. And of that which is coming into existence, part is already extinguished. Motions and changes are continually renewing the world. When? Who? Marcus Aurelius (121AC 180AC) Learning Outcome 4: Innovation is as old the mountains, and we certainly have the ability to innovate in our beautiful country Innovation and our sustainable future Two perspectives Environment Organisational Knowledge creativity Building Human capabilities Life expectancy /quality of life Knowledge and creativity Standard of living Community participation (E/P/S) Resources for education, health, communication and employment Economic Growth Resources for technology development Productivity gains Advances in: Medicine Agriculture Energy Manufacturing Communications Technological Change UNDP,

12 Knowledge creativity Building Human capabilities Life expectancy /quality of life Knowledge and creativity Standard of living Community participation (E/P/S) Resources for education, health, communication and employment Innovation Economic Growth Resources for technology development Productivity gains Technological Change Advances in: Medicine Agriculture Energy Manufacturing Communications Organisational sustainability What can we control within our operations? Time Cost Quality Dependability Flexibility Sustainability Generic operations performance objectives Operations performance objectives Organisational sustainability Speed Sustainability Quality Sustainability Speed Quality Cost Flexibility Cost Flexibility Dependibility Dependibility 12

13 Activity 5: The marshmallow challenge Material 20 spaghetti sticks, 1m of masking tape, 1m of string, 1 pair of scissors, 1 x marshmallow Objective Teams have to construct the tallest freestanding structure with the marshmallow on top. The winning team is the one that has the tallest structure measured from the table top surface to the top of the marshmallow. Instructions The entire marshmallow must be on the top of the structure. The team can use as many or as few of the 20 spaghetti sticks, as much or as little of the string or tape. Teams are free to break the spaghetti, cut up the tape and string to create new structures. Those touching or supporting the structure at the end of the exercise will be disqualified. Time The challenge lasts 18 minutes. Teams cannot hold on to the structure when the time runs out. Those touching or supporting the structure at the end of the exercise will be disqualified. Marshmallow challenge debrief Kids do better than business students: On virtually every measure of innovation, kindergarteners create taller and more interesting structures. Prototyping matters: The reason kids do better than business school students is kids spend more time playing and prototyping. They naturally start with the marshmallow and stick in the sticks. The Business School students spend a vast amount of time planning, then executing on the plan, with almost no time to fix the design once they put the marshmallow on top. The marshmallow is a metaphor for the hidden assumptions of an innovation / project / technology: The assumption is that marshmallows are light and fluffy and easily supported by the spaghetti sticks. When you actually try to build the structure, the marshmallows don t seem so light. We need to identify the assumptions in our project the real customer needs, the cost of the product, the duration of the service and test them early and often. That s the mechanism that leads to effective innovation! The marshmallow challenge Learning outcome(s) 1. Dealing with the people (your group) is often tougher than the technology 2. Prototyping is indispensable in technology intrinsic innovation. The quicker you do, the quicker you learn The quicker you learn, the quicker you react! Link to pdf 13

14 The key messages: Open Services innovation Move the organisation even further away from the linear process that has dominated much of the 20th century thinking Make use of the open iterative process, be more multidimensional in collaboration, and integrate the customer more centrally into the web of collaborators Invention from the R&D led to market push really dramatic shifts in research techniques to know more of what pulls and connects with consumers Focus on the consumers unmet, unarticulated or required needs by making customers central in the web of cocreators and co creation activities 14

15 In summary then Fail forward fast LO1: Technology is a lot more than IT LO2: Technology will continue to impact the environment in which we operate from organisation to geographical region LO3: The single worst management strategy for managing technology is ignorance LO4: Innovation is as old the mountains, and we certainly have the ability to innovate in our beautiful country LO5: The real challenge in managing technology intrinsic innovation is often people! LO6: Prototyping is important, fail forward fast. Tom Peters Technology and Innovation Idea Do Value Innovation is not limited to technology However, technology plays a vital role in many innovations and will continue to do so into the future Are you managing technology to reap the benefits? 15