of lithium-ion batteries in the US and Japan Who knows what, when and why?

Transcription

1 Modes Knowledge of governance creation across and the industry effect on sectors learning the patterns: field of Comparing lithium-ion batteries the case of lithium-ion batteries in the US and Japan Who knows what, when and why? Annegret Stephan, Catharina Bening, Tobias S. Schmidt, Volker H. Hoffmann Group for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich Frontiers in Energy, ETH Zurich April, 14 th, 2015 SusTec Quarterly Schloss Wartegg

2 MOTIVATION Lithium-ion batteries can play a key role in several means to cope with the world s key challenges Climate change mitigation Reduction of ressource depletion Integrating intermittend renewables into the electricity system Electrification of transportation Fostering economic growth Electrification of developing countries [1]

3 MOTIVATION Lithium-ion batteries can play a key role in several means to cope with the world s key challenges Climate change mitigation Reduction of ressource depletion Integrating intermittend renewables into the electricity system Electrification of transportation Storage can shift electricity supply and demand Storage Fostering economic growth Electrification of developing countries Source: (Anpassung ETH im Zurich Folienmaster: Menü «Ansicht» «Folienmaster»)

4 MOTIVATION Lithium-ion batteries can play a key role in several means to cope with the world s key challenges Climate change mitigation Reduction of ressource depletion Integrating intermittend renewables into the electricity system Electrification of transportation [1] Highest world oil demand comes from the transportation sector [1], which can be reduced due to electric vehicles Fostering economic growth Electrification of developing countries [1] IEA (2012)

5 MOTIVATION Lithium-ion batteries can play a key role in several means to cope with the world s key challenges Climate change mitigation Reduction of ressource depletion Integrating intermittend renewables into the electricity system Electrification of transportation Renewables with storage can provide affordable electricity [2] Fostering economic growth Electrification of developing countries [2] Blum et al. (2013)

6 MOTIVATION Lithium-ion batteries can play a key role in several means to cope with the world s key challenges Climate change mitigation Reduction of ressource depletion Integrating intermittend renewables into the electricity system Electrification of transportation Policy makers, academia and industry aim at accelerating technological progress in this field Fostering economic growth Electrification of developing countries

7 MOTIVATION Lithium-ion battery technology is important for the future energy system Technological change is aimed by policy makers, academia and industry Knowledge creation a multi-component technology that is produced in different sectors Application/ Use Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components Different components Different sectors Which patterns of knowledge creation can be found across the different sectors of the lithium-ion battery technology? Image sources: Rockwood Holdings, Inc., SAE, arstechnica Electric & Electronics Transport

8 Agenda Theoretical Embedding Data & Methodology Results & Discussion Implications & Further

9 Agenda Theoretical Embedding Data & Methodology Results & Discussion Implications & Further

10 THEORETICAL EMBEDDING Literature gap This study is a first attempt to investigate 2 Dimensions [1] differences Technological artifacts Different outputs (according to definition) Knowledge bases Actors and networks Different product and process knowledge Center around/come from different scientific fields Different firms Sector-specific networks the sectoral dimension Institutions Different laws, norms, habits Different standardization bodies and processes Different labor markets and financial institutions 3 of a multi-component s 1 technological sectoral technological innovation system (TIS) geographical

11 THEORETICAL EMBEDDING 1 The technological innovation system approach lacks a sectoral conceptualization Innovation System Approaches Technological Innovation System geographical technological sectoral Aim: Understanding mechanisms underlying the evolution of technologies to derive policy recommendations [3] Systemic perspective on a technology [4] Knowledge development and diffusion is one of the most important processes shaping TIS evolution [5],[6] TISs are affected (or constrained) by geographical and sectoral dimensions [4],[7] BUT: Sectoral dimension has not been explicitly analyzed before A sectoral conceptualization might help TIS scholars to develop an enhanced understanding of technological evolution 1 Platzhalter Technological Logo/Schriftzug innovation system [3] Jacobsson & Bergek (2011), [4] Carlsson & Stankiewicz (1991), [5] Hekkert et al. (2007), [6] Bergek et al. (2008), [7] Markard &Truffer (2008)

12 although sectors differ in their innovation behavior due to differences in certain dimensions 2 THEORETICAL EMBEDDING Sector = The aggregation of firms with similar output that are in competition with each other and that center around similar production techniques. Dimensions [8] differences Technological artifacts Different outputs (according to definition) Knowledge bases Actors and networks Different product and process knowledge Center around/come from different scientific fields Different firms Sector-specific networks Different types of sectors in terms of innovation behavior [9],[10],[11] Institutions Different laws, norms, habits Different standardization bodies and processes Different labor markets and financial institutions [8] Platzhalter Malerba Logo/Schriftzug (2004), [9] Pavitt (1984), [10] Iammarino & McCann (2006), [11] Breschi & Malerba (1997) distinguish between different sector types based on different dimensions 12

13 3 and multi-component technologies cut across different sectors Relationship between technology architecture and the sectoral configuration of a TIS THEORETICAL EMBEDDING Actor Sector-specific network Technology artifact Sectoral boundary Technology Architecture [12] Sectoral Configuration of a TIS Integrated System Focal TIS Subsystem produces Component 1 determines Sector B Component 2 Sector A Sector C Sector D Other TISs [12] Henderson & Clark (1990)

14 THEORETICAL EMBEDDING Explanations of the used terms Terms Technological innovation system (TIS) TIS function Explanations Encompasses all actors that interact in a specific economic/industrial area under a particular institutional infrastructure and involved in the generation, diffusion, and utilization of technology [4], p. 111 Core process that shapes the evolution of a TIS [5],6] Knowledge development and diffusion Technology architecture captures the breadth and depth of the current knowledge base of the TIS, and how that changes over time, including how knowledge is diffused and combined in the system [6], p. 414 the way how different components and subsystems are integrated and linked in one technology [12] Sector The aggregation of firms with similar output that are in competition with each other and that center around similar production techniques Sectoral configuration The number and kind of sectors [4] Carlsson & Stankiewicz (1991), [5] Hekkert et al. (2007), [6] Bergek et al. (2008), [12] Henderson & Clark (1990)

15 THEORETICAL EMBEDDING Literature gap and research questions This study is a first attempt to investigate 2 3 Dimensions [1] Technological artifacts Knowledge bases Actors and networks Institutions differences Different outputs (according to definition) Different product and process knowledge Center around/come from different scientific fields Different firms Sector-specific networks Different laws, norms, habits Different standardization bodies and processes Different labor markets and financial institutions the sectoral dimension How do different sectors affect the functional dynamics in technological innovation systems? 1 technological s of a multi-component Which patterns of knowledge creation can be found across the different sectors of the lithium-ion battery technology? sectoral technological innovation system (TIS) geographical

16 Agenda Theoretical Embedding Data & Methodology Results & Discussion Implications & Further

17 DATA & METHODOLOGY The research question is investigated with a quantitative analysis of lithium-ion battery patent data in Japan Reasoning Li-ion battery technology Multi-component technology that is produced in different sectors Technological progress has occured in the last 30 years Considered to play an important role in future energy and transportation systems Analyzed period US JP Others Japan Highest share of patents (73.5%) in the analyzed period Patent data analysis! TIS literature suggests patents as one measure for knowledge development and diffusion [5],[6] Wide use of patents as a measure for inventive activity and knowledge flows [13], [14] Patent data imply several limitations [15],[16],[17] (Anpassung [5] Hekkert im et Folienmaster: al. (2007), [6] Menü Bergek «Ansicht» et al. (2008), «Folienmaster») [13] Grilliches (1998), [14] Jaffe (1989), [15] Bergeron et al. (1998), [16] Alcazer & Gittelman (2006), [17] Criscuolo & Verspagen (2008) Operationalization Knowledge development: Counts of patents Knowledge diffusion: Counts of patents forward citations

18 DATA & METHODOLOGY Data retrieval and processing 1. Data retrieval 2. Data preparation Thomson Innovation Database Search: Keyword-based and classification based Several rounds (test for false positives and false negatives) Technology architecture Application/Use Technology Architecture Electric vehicle Laptop Integrated System Cell System Second. battery Stationary battery Subsystem Peripheral Components Wiring Cooling Technology Architecture Categories Sectoral Configuration of a TIS EPI/CPI Manual Codes Factor analysis based classification, 50% rule Unambiguous classification produces SIC Codes (SIC1-8) Unavailability: manual coding of publicly available company information Multiple classification possible Main Components Component 1 Anode, Cathode Electrolyte Component 2 determines Sector A Sector B 3. Analysis Sector C Sector D Database: 13,090 patents from Japan 1 Descriptive quantitative analysis with Pajek 2 1 Country assignment via priority country 2 Software normally used for social network analysis

19 Agenda Theoretical Embedding Data & Methodology Results & Discussion Implications & Further

20 RESULTS & DISCUSSION Patterns of knowledge development (1/2) PRELIMINARY Within production activities Results Application/ Use Total patents: % = (multiple classification possible) 542 Counts of patents differ in their total patent activity 100%=703 Patents Cell System %=2133 Patents Peripheral Components 100%=1362 Patents 1075 Patent activities in the respective technology architecture categories differ Main Components 100%=8892 Patents 100% [Patents] (multiple classification possible) Patent activity can be found within (specialization) and outside (diversification) the sectors production activities

21 RESULTS & DISCUSSION Patterns of knowledge development (2/2) PRELIMINARY Application/ Use 100%=703 Patents Cell System 100%=2133 Patents Peripheral Components 100%=1362 Patents Main Components 100%=8892 Patents 100% [Patents] (multiple classification possible) Total patents: % = (multiple classification possible) Discussion Specialization Firms develop their Counts of patents technological capabilities 542 close to their production capabilities [15], especially in cumulative technologies [18] Higher costs of search outside firms contextual boundary [19] 1075 Diversification Rather into 1677upstream knowledge [9] System integrators diversify their knowledge due to uncertainty, technological maturity, technological newness [20],[21],[22] Results differ in their total patent activity Patent activities in the respective technology architecture categories differ Patent activity can be found within (specialization) and outside (diversification) the sectors production activities [9] Pavitt (1984), [15] Bergeron et al. (1998), [18] Stuart & Podolny (1996), [19] Rosenkopf & Almeida (2003), [20] Brusoni et al. (2001), [21] Lee & Veloso (2008), [22] Takeishi (2002)

22 RESULTS & DISCUSSION Patterns of knowledge diffusion (1/2) PRELIMINARY horizontal diagnoal loop vertical Results Application/ Use Ø num. citations: 1.4 Cell System Ø num. citations: 3.7 Counts of patents Counts of patents forward citations Citations differ significantly between sectors Likelihood to be cited varies between technology architecture categories Peripheral Components Ø num. citations: 0.8 Main Components Ø num. citations: Number of citations with regard to arcs direction: horizontal > diagonal > loops > vertical 100% [Citations]

23 RESULTS & DISCUSSION Patterns of knowledge diffusion (2/2) PRELIMINARY Discussion Results Application/ Use Ø num. citations: 1.4 Cell System Ø num. citations: 3.7 Peripheral Components Ø num. citations: 0.8 Main Components Ø num. citations: % [Citations] Knowledge Counts of patents diffuses better Counts of patents forward citations between similar firms [23] Knowledge diffuses rather between firms of the same sector than of different sectors [24] Knowledge diffusion across sectors: technological nearness? [6] Beyond literature insights: knowledge diffusion across technology architecture categories and sectors Citations differ significantly between sectors Likelihood to be cited varies between technology architecture categories Number of citations with regard to arcs direction: horizontal > diagonal > loops > vertical knowledge diffuses between sectors to a significant extend (Anpassung [23] Lane im & Folienmaster: Lubatkin (1998), Menü «Ansicht» [24] Pan et al. «Folienmaster») (2009), [25] Battke et al. (2014)

24 RESULTS & DISCUSSION Evolution of knowledge development and diffusion (1/2) PRELIMINARY Counts of patents Counts of forward citations Counts of patents forward citations Application/ Use Technology Architecture Categories Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components Application/ Use Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components

25 RESULTS & DISCUSSION Evolution of knowledge development and diffusion (1/2) PRELIMINARY Counts of patents Counts of forward citations Counts of patents forward citations Application/ Use Technology Architecture Categories Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components Application/ Use Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components

26 RESULTS & DISCUSSION Evolution of knowledge development and diffusion (1/2) PRELIMINARY Counts of patents Counts of forward citations Counts of patents forward citations Application/ Use Technology Architecture Categories Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components Application/ Use Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components

27 RESULTS & DISCUSSION Evolution of knowledge development and diffusion (1/2) PRELIMINARY Counts of patents Counts of forward citations Counts of patents forward citations Application/ Use Technology Architecture Categories Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components Application/ Use Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components

28 RESULTS & DISCUSSION Evolution of knowledge development and diffusion (2/2) PRELIMINARY Detailed in following pages Counts of patents forward citations Application/ Use Technology Architecture Categories Cell System Peripheral Components Main Components Results Knowledge development and diffusion started in some technology architecture categories and spread to other categories over time started patenting at different times

29 RESULTS & DISCUSSION The role of different sectors varies over time PRELIMINARY Number of patents from selected sectors over time Electronics & Electric Results Peak activities vary between different sectors The share on patents of different sectors changes over time (e.g. transportation equipment) The importance of some sectors role (esp. using batteries) seems to increase continuously (e.g., transportation equipment)

30 RESULTS & DISCUSSION The role of different sectors varies over time PRELIMINARY Number of patents from selected sectors over time Discussion Can Electronics the sectors & Electric knowledge 650 development activities be 600 related to the multi-purpose [26] 550 of Li-ion batteries? (Anpassung [26] Battke im Folienmaster: et al. (2013) Menü «Ansicht» «Folienmaster») Results Peak activities vary between different sectors The share on patents of different sectors changes over time (e.g. transportation equipment) The importance of some sectors role (esp. using batteries) seems to increase continuously (e.g., transportation equipment)

31 Agenda Theoretical Embedding Data & Methodology Results & Discussion Implications & Further

32 Theoretical and practical contribution IMPLICATIONS & FURTHER RESEARCH Contributions Implications for policy makers Implications for (TIS) research Specific knowledge patterns in the lithiumion battery technology Consider sector-specific knowledge patterns Consider multi-purpose character of batteries Explore unexpected patterns Further explore the direction of knowledge diffusion Sectoral dimension has to be included in TIS approach for multicomponent technologies Consider sectoral availability and configuration and their changes over time Explore the role of different types and configurations of sectors Integrate both spatial and sectoral dimension simultaneously into TIS approach Methodological approach Apply methodological approach to other core processes in a TIS prove validity of conceptual suggestion

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34 References (1/2) Alcacer, J. & Gittelman, M., Patent citations as a measure of knowledge flows: The influence of examiner citations. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88, pp Battke, B. et al., 2014a. The impact of specialization and centrality of knowledge on knowledge flows within and across technologies. submitted to Policy. Battke, B. et al., A review and probabilistic model of lifecycle costs of stationary batteries in multiple applications, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, pp Bergek, A. et al., Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems: A scheme of analysis. Policy, 37(3), pp Bergeron, S. et al., Location of innovating activities, industrial structure and techno industrial clusters in the French economy, Evidence from US patenting. Policy, 26(7-8), pp Blum et al., Rural electrification through village grids Assessing the cost competitiveness of isolated renewable energy technologies in Indonesia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 22, pp Breschi, S. & Malerba, F., Sectoral Innovation Systems: Technological Regimes, Schumpeterian Dynamics, and Spatial Boundaries. In C. Edquist, ed. Systems of Innovation: Technologies, Institutions and Organizations. London/Washington: Pinter, pp Brusoni, S., et al., Knowledge Organizational Coupling, and the Boundaries of the Firm: Why Do Firms Know More Than They Make? Administrative Science Quarterly, 46(4), pp Carlsson, B., & Stankiewicz, R.,1991. On the nature, function and composition of technological systems. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 1, Criscuolo, P. & Verspagen, B., Does it matter where patent citations come from? Inventor vs. examiner citations in European patents. Policy, 37(10), pp Griliches, Z., Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey. In Z. Griliches, ed. R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence. University of Chicago Press, pp Henderson, R.M. & Clark, K.B., Architectural Innovation: The Reconfiguration of Existing Product Technologies and the Failure of Established Firms. Administrative Science Quarterly, 35(1), pp

35 References (2/2) Hekkert, M.P. et al., Functions of innovation systems: A new approach for analysing technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(4), pp Iammarino, S. & McCann, P., The structure and evolution of industrial clusters: Transactions, technology and knowledge spillovers. Policy, 35(7), pp International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2012, Paris. Jacobsson, S. & Bergek, A., Innovation system analyses and sustainability transitions: Contributions and suggestions for research. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 1(1), pp Jaffe, A.B., Characterizing the technological position of firms, with application to quantifying technological opportunity and research spillovers. Policy, 18, pp Lane, P.J. & Lubatkin, M., Relative absorptive capacity and interorganizational learning. Strategic Management Journal, 19, pp Lee, J. & Veloso, F.M., Interfirm Innovation under Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence for Strategic Knowledge Partitioning. The Journal of Product Innovation Management, 25, pp Malerba, F., Sectoral Systems: concepts and issues. In F. Malerba, ed. Sectoral Systems of Innovation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp Markard, J. & Truffer, B., Technological innovation systems and the multi-level perspective: Towards an integrated framework. Policy, 37(4), pp Pan, W., Yang, D. & Lin, M., Inter-industry Technology Spillover Effects in China: Evidence from 35 Industrial. China & World Economy, 20(2), pp Pavitt, K., Sectoral patterns of technical change : Towards a taxonomy and a theory. Policy, 13(1984), pp Rosenkopf, L. & Almeida, P., Overcoming Local Search Through Alliances and Mobility. Management Science, 49(6), pp Stuart, T.E. & Podolny, J.M., Local Search and the Evolution of Technological Capabilities. Strategic Management Journal, 17, pp Takeishi, A., Knowledge Partitioning in the Interfirm Division of Labor: The Case of Automotive Product Development. Organizational Science, 13(3), pp