SUSTAINABILITY RESILIENCE

Transcription

1 SUSTAINABILITY RESILIENCE William H. Hooke American Meteorological Society January 20, 2016

2 First, a disclaimer False facts are highly injurious to the progress of science, for they ooen endure long; but false views, if supported by some evidence, do litle harm, for everyone takes a salutary pleasure in proving their falseness. Charles Darwin, The Origins of Man, Chapter 6

3 and, since we re quoyng 19 th - century figures "If we could first know (with regard to sustainability and resilience) (1)where we are, and (2)whither we are tending, we could then better judge (3)what to do, and (4)how to do it." - Abraham Lincoln

4 1. WHERE WE ARE

5 For virtually all of human experience, mankind has faced a twofold problem: Earth as a resource and Earth as a threat

6 We approached resilience, sustainability by adaptayon and innovayon

7 But recently, in a short period of time, the human race has been on a roll: population growth increase in per capita consumption of resources advance in technology social change

8 years transportation 10 4 years 100 years

9 years computation 10 4 years 10 3 years 50 years

10 biotechnology 1400 years 50 years

11 Social change

12 Our 2-fold sustainability problem has mutated into a 3-fold one Earth as a resource Earth as a threat Earth as a victim

13 2.WHITHER WE ARE TENDING

14 TWO QUESTIONS What future is likely if we take no action? and What alternative future(s) are possible if we act effectively? (we ll return to this second question later)

15 Human success is acute-onset; it has developed in a time short compared with climate variability recurrence of extremes emergence of unintended consequences evidence of non-sustainability internalized understanding of new realities

16 We can therefore expect a future marked by... (adverse) climate variability natural extremes that will exceed those of the (brief) historical record Widespread but highlylocalized environmental and social catastrophes declining margins, shortages ineffective top-down coping strategies

17 To solve these problems requires dealing with the Earth as resource, victim, and threat simultaneously, locally, globally, and at all times cheaply, and quickly Remember simultaneous equations from middle school? x + y = 4 x y + z = 6 x + z = 7 x=3, y=1, z=4

18 But in real-world experience, it often seems: 1. resources, 2. environmental protection, 3. resilience to hazards choose any two*

19 THIS 3-FOLD SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEM IS BEYOND US.

20 THIS 3-FOLD SUSTAINABILITY PROBLEM IS BEYOND US. IN FACT, IT HAS NO SOLUTION.

21 *This has given rise to apocalypyc literature

22 3. WHAT TO DO?

23 Instead of cursing the darkness (conynuously) Innovate Develop coping strategies/buy Yme Examples: LighYng Green revoluyon Water Microfinance

24 4. HOW TO DO IT?

25 address tomorrow s problems with tomorrow s tools (not yesterday s) Four 21 st - century tools A basis of facts Policy IT/social networking Local leadership

26 Tool #1. A basis of facts (example). Since the 1870 s, meteorologists have made huge progress. Back then, we thought assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is infinite climate is unchanging weather is unpredictable

27 today we know differently Assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is finite, even on global scales Climate is variable, sometimes abruptly Weather is more predictable than we thought

28 Tool #2. policy: What is policy? (your definiyon, please)

29 Emergent behavior Swarm intelligence Hive minds

30 Emergent behavior: the steering behavior of boids separation: avoid crowding... alignment: match speed and direction... cohesion: move toward the average position...of local flockmates

31 ISSUE POLICY OPTION 1 POLICY OPTION 2 RESOURCES ENVIRONMENT HAZARDS RESOURCES, ENVIRONMENT, HAZARDS (ALL THE ABOVE, TAKEN TOGETHER) Acquire and consume Damage then restore Build resistance to extremes solve each in isolation, seek artificial exactitude Compete with others Collaborate in experiments Repeat mistakes Create and share Preserve going along Build resilience to extremes solve all three simultaneously but settle for approximately Collaborate with others Compete in experiments Learn from experience and innovate

32 Where the policies aren t right, we need to innovate Hard to do at the national level National policies: Fund innovation Devolve power

33 Think like the Coast Guard, not like the Army

34 Tool #3. IT & social networks Learn from experience, and (quickly) share information

35 Why, despite the fact we know so much more about the natural and social causes of disasters, do losses continue to mount?

36 The standard answer Population increase Migration to more hazardous areas Growth in wealth over time But additional factors are at work

37 White, Kates, and Burton 2001 * we haven't learned as much as we think knowledge is available but unused knowledge is used ineffectively, and/or growth in costs may reflect a time lag between the acquisition of new understanding and when it can be put into practice. *White, GF, et al. (2001), Knowing better and losing even more: the use of knowledge in hazards management, Environmental Hazards, (3)

38 learning from experience

39 TO RECAP: Four 21 st - century tools A basis of facts Policy IT/social networking Local leadership Learn more about these tools Use them singly and in combinayon Master them Improve upon them Partner with others in this effort

40 CHANGING OUTCOMES What kind of world is possible if we act effectively? We don t know. But we can and will find out.

41 THANK YOU!

42 Be the change you want to see in the world. Mahatma Gandhi

43 The Greatest Generation

44 Lastly, I would address one general admoni<on to all; that they consider what are the true ends of knowledge, and that they seek it not either for pleasure of the mind, or for conten<on, or for superiority to others, or for profit, or fame, or power, or any of these inferior things; but for the benefit and use of life; and that they perfect and govern it in charity. For it was from the lust of power that the angels fell, from lust of knowledge that man fell; but of charity there can be no excess, neither did angel or man ever come in danger by it. - - Francis Bacon