SCIENCE MEETS POLICY AND POLITICS! Miriam Diamond University of Toronto

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1 SCIENCE MEETS POLICY AND POLITICS! Miriam Diamond University of Toronto Duke University Feb 20, 2009

2 Societal Myths Myth 1: Science & Technology will keep us prosperous Myth 2: Science Policy Great Lakes

3 Societal Myths socially constructed comprehensive visions that give shape and direction to life." Colin Grant 1999 The Myths We Live By The assertion that ours is a myth-free culture may actually be one of our most important cultural myths! William Rees 2008 Science, cognition and public policy

4 Myth Science & Technology Science Action Societal Good Truth (scientific knowledge) & capability (technology, policy development & implementation) will allow us to solve our problems Dolly the Cloned Sheep

5 Truth as a Myth Not truth, but error has always been the chief factor in the evolution of nations The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. Gustave Le Bon 1896 The Crowd: A Study of The Popular Mind

6 Truth & Government?? Folly The Trojan Horse wooden-headedness, the source of self deception. plays a remarkably large role in government. It consists in assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions [i.e., ideology] while ignoring any contrary signs. It is acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts. Barbara Tuchman 1984 March of Folly: From Troy to Viet Nam

7 Homer-Dixon T The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization. Vintage Press, Toronto. Folly Gone too Far - Collapse Wealth & power Wealth & power Population & societal complexity Population & complexity More food & trees More food Land degradation Land degradation Lower return on energy investment Lead poisoning Synchronous Failure <Energy Return/Energy Invested Sterility among men, stillbirths, cretinism, lunacy

8 Our myths have led to folly. Will our myths lead to collapse?

9 The Limits to Growth Resources Voices against folly Population Food per capita Pollution Industrial output Per capita Meadows, D.,D. Meadows, J. Randers, W. Behrens The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books.

10 Societal Myths Myth 1: Science & Technology will keep us prosperous Myth 2: Science Policy Great Lakes

11 Impact of Public Opinion on Environmental Policy

12 Impact of Public Opinion on Environmental Policy

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14 Societal Myths Myth 1: Science & Technology will keep us prosperous Myth 2: Science Policy Great Lakes

15 Environmental Routes of Societal Failure - Collapse, Jared Diamond 2005 Diamond, J Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York: Viking Books. 4 reasons for societal collapse: 1. Failure to anticipate a problem 2. Failure to perceive a problem once it has arrived 3. Failure to solve the problem 4. Failure of solutions to the problem Climate change Resource exhaustion Deforestation Loss of agricultural production Water shortages

16 Science in Decision Making? ignoring or misusing science in environmental policy is all but inevitable short-term limbic and brain-stem defenses are not easily swayed by longterm logic, rational assessments, or moral and ethical arguments. Bill Rees 2008

17 The Making & Implementation of 1. Government science & policy with academic science 2. Public pressure 3. Inside interest group lobbying 4. Competing issues Policy blog.ecr.co.za/cockontheblog/?p=357

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19 2008 December Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Four decades after national environmental laws and departments were created to clean up Canada's air and water and to safeguard biodiversity, wetlands, and habitats, Canadians still face mounting environmental problems. Despite progress in tackling such problems as lead pollution, acid rain, and ozone-depleting substances, too many smog alerts, respiratory illnesses, and days with high UV-radiation still occur. Few if any of the problems that led to the advent of the environmental protection agenda have been fully resolved.

20 Government Science Economic starvation Reorganization Expanding role of enablers and bean counters Direct political interference in bureaucracy Funding Scientists seeking own funding convenient means of not mobilizing resources for planned priorities

21 Academic Science Time Focus Specificity Reductionism Relevance to problem solving Convention with reigning paradigm FUNDING!!

22 Societal Myths Myth 1: Science & Technology will keep us prosperous Myth 2: Science Policy Great Lakes

23 Environmental Routes of Societal Failure - Collapse, Diamond 2005 Diamond, J Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York: Viking Books. 4 reasons for societal collapse: 1. Failure to anticipate a problem 2. Failure to perceive a problem once it has arrived 3. Failure to solve the problem 4. Failure of solutions to the problem Climate change Invasive species Habitat destruction Nutrient loads Contaminant loads Competing priorities Lack of infrastructure renewal

24 Action on the Great Lakes Activity Eutrophication P control Acid Rain Virtual elimination of persistence organochlorines Deficit reduction Tax relief???? 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 Time

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26 Academic Science Time Focus Specificity Reductionism Relevance to problem solving Convention with reigning paradigm FUNDING!! Great Lakes Research

27 Societal Myths Myth 1: Science & Technology will keep us prosperous Myth 2: Science Policy Great Lakes

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29 Public thirst for vision, leadership Yet.. Past & current trend towards individualization of issues, not collective action Can we turn the boat around?? Turning Point?