Innovation and Sustainable Growth in a Globalised World

Transcription

1 Innovation and Sustainable Growth in a Globalised World Innovation and technology diffusion in developing countries: addressing global challenges A view from the South Michael Kahn Centre for Research on Science and Technology Stellenbosch University South Africa Joint OECD World Bank Conference Joint OECD-World Bank Conference Paris, November 2008

2 We live in interesting times

3 The IT techno-economic paradigm and socio-economic-political change IT has driven the financial services bubble

4 The boom (and China) scramble for Africa V2 EU SKILLS USA BRAZIL CHINA

5 South Africa 1. Growth th45% 4.5% with low fiscal dfiit deficit 2. Strong bank and exchange controls 3. State monopolies: utilities; telcoms; transport 4. Highcurrent account deficit; low forex reserves; high portfolio flows 5. Open: exports equivalent to 30%of GDP 6. High levels of inequality mitigated by social grants

6 on a Long Walk to Freedom Open Inclusion Constructed Crisis: Social missions TNCs, globalization what constructed advantage? Interventionist Laissez faire Apartheid Constructed Crisis: Technology missions Closed Import substitution Constructed advantage

7 SA TNCs now derive 50% income globally 1. Resource based mining, chemicals, pulp p& paper 2. Financial services 3. Agro processing 4. Construction and project management 5. Logistics and communication 6. Automotive and aerospace 7. Tourism and leisure How?

8 Supported by a small innovation system 1. GERD USD 2 billion; GERD/GDP = 0.95% 2. BERD = 60% GERD; 10% foreign funded; f nded 27% services 3. Scientific excellence: 0.4% of world publications; international links. clinical medicine, biology and biochemistry, chemistry, engineering, environment/ecology, geosciences, materialsscience, plant & animal science, and social science. 4. Patents focus on resource exploitation 5. Invisible strengths in electronics; software and system engineering

9 with high levels of incremental innovation Source: Innovation Survey 2005

10 and knowledge sources similar to the EU

11 Responsive to regulatory & environment pressures

12 But vulnerable to people shortages Table 22C Highly important factors that hampered innovation activities of innovative and noninnovative enterprises, Number of enterprises Industry Services Total Innovative Non- Innovative Innovative Non- Innovative Innovative Cost Factors Non- Innovative Lack of internal funds Lack of external funds Innovation costs too high Knowledge Factors Lack of qualified personnel Lack of information on technology Lack of information of markets Difficult to find partners Market Factors Market overcrowded d Market demand uncertain Reasons not to innovate Prior innovations No demand

13 Brain drain is acute.. New Zealand 10.1% USA 9.8% Namibia 5.2% Canada 4.7% Zimbabw e 22% 2.2% Germany 2.1% Botsw ana 1.9% Netherlands 1.6% Australia 16.2% Others 18.5% UK 27.7% Source: Flight of the Flamingoes, 2004

14 South Africa in Africa SERVICES From migrant labour to migrant students

15 Innovation and sustainable development? Four questions 1. What constraints and opportunities does the IT TE paradigm present? 2. What constraints and opportunities does the financial meltdown present? 3. Is it a matter of a poverty of technology (innovation) or a poverty of politics? 4. What shape innovation system for What shape innovation system for 47 million rather than 7 million?