The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World

Transcription

1 The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World Friuli Future Forum Naples and Udine, October 22/ Address by Peter Marsh Author, The New Industrial Revolution: Consumers, Globalization and the End of Mass Production

2 Global re-industrialisation on the agenda (Hyundai Heavy Industries robotic assembly line) There s a new zeitgeist: I m seeing a global manufacturing renaissance : Jeff Immelt, chief executive, General Electric

3 Factories can be exciting (John Winzeler at Winzeler Gear, Chicago)

4 Many unexpected hidden champions : Vitronic of Germany (laser scanning specialist) Tubes used inside Cern particle accelerator

5 But don t expect a boom in manufacturing jobs US factory employment fell by 5m between 2000 and 2013 (17.2m to 12.2m) EU lost 7m manufacturing jobs (38m to 31m) Plant run by Mindray medical equipment group in S China

6 The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World What manufacturing means Global trends Impact of digital thinking/technology convergence Opportunities 5

7 The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World What manufacturing means 6

8 Manufacturing: the key factors Creative force behind 10bn unique products Accounts for 16 per cent of world economy Source of new ideas, fresh thinking and stimulates services activity Employs about 300m people (one third in China) or 1 in 25 of the population Contributes to falling prices: manufacturing prone to deflation (compared to services) World contains about 1.5bn large manufactured objects of which less than 2pc are connected

9 Manufacturing requires four components MATERIALS SKILLS T ENERGY CAPITAL 8 'View-Header and Footer-Fixed date' 'Select View-Header and Footer' and insert footer text for all slides

10 now a fifth enters the picture DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY AIDS MANUFACTURING THROUGH FACILITATING TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE AND BOOSTING: CONNECTIONS CREATIVITY CUSTOMISATION

11 Technology convergence and the New Industrial Revolution Digital technology equates to use of electronics/computer/telecoms techniques (ICT) to add to manufacturing capabilities Digital technology can blend with disciplines eg new materials, bio-engineering, fluid flow, chemical processing in technology convergence Linking technology convergence to manufacturing is a key force behind the Fifth Industrial Revolution, or New Industrial Revolution 10

12 The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World What manufacturing means Global trends 11

13 The last 3,500 years Pre-industry (1,500BC to 1500 AD) : Iron Age, glass production, metals Proto-industry ( ) ;Venice shipyard (c.1500) First Industrial Revolution ( ): steam power, textile machinery Second Industrial Revolution ( ) : communications; railways, telegraph Third Industrial Revolution ( ): science based methodology; electricity, chemistry Fourth Industrial Revolution ( ): computers, electronics Fifth Industrial Revolution (2005-?): connections, creativity, customisation, helped by ICT/technology convergence

14 $bn * World GDP gross value added by category 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, *constant 2005 prices Financial services, Government spending Transport, storage and communication Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants and hotels Construction Manufacturing Mining, Utilities Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing Source: UN

15 World manufacturing shares 2012 S America 3% Africa 2% Rest of world 4% N America 22% Asia 43% Europe 26% China sets the pace 14

16 Growth in factory production Growth % China World Germany US Europe Japan France Britain 241 Making metal in Sheffield 15

17 Global manufacturing output, 2012 $bn, current prices World total: 11, * Estimate Source: UN, IHS Global Insight 16

18 Core Europe* manufacturing output and employment $bn** millions **constant 2005 prices Manufacturing output German reunification Manufacturing employment *France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK Sources: UN; BLS

19 $bn* millions UK manufacturing output and employment 275 Manufacturing output Manufacturing employment *constant 2005 prices Sources: UN; BLS

20 $bn* millions US manufacturing output and employment 2000 Manufacturing output Manufacturing employment *constant 2005 prices 10 Sources: UN; BLS

21 The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World What manufacturing means Global trends Impact of digital/technology convergence 20

22 The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World 1. CONNECTIONS 2. CREATIVITY 3. CUSTOMISATION 21

23 CONNECTIONS Information/materials pathways (encompassing INTERNET OF THINGS) Design at a distance Services addition 22

24 The advent of joined-up manufacturing, connecting production/r&d/service

25 Dispersed, fragmented manufacturing is possible as supply/information chains become more complex

26 Networks are key factor in internet of things

27 Connected manufacturing: will influence many sectors PRODUCTION TELECOMMS BUILDING/MINING AGRICULTURE Y ENERGY TRAFFIC FLIGHT HEALTHCARE 26 'View-Header and Footer-Fixed date' 'Select View-Header and Footer' and insert footer text for all slides

28 Google self-driving cars will require Internet of Things to work properly

29 ICT-enabled sensors take central stage

30 New breed of networking/smart grid/dispersed design companies (Sigfox of France/Nuri Telecom of S Korea/Libelium of US)

31 A potential boost to broad range of tech-based businesses spread globally Sensor/system makers: from top left, clockwise, Crompton Greaves (India); Zytronic (UK); Sensor Instruments(Germany); Worldsensing (Spain)

32 New industries based on smart sensors/new materials/electronic control: smart buildings From top :Metaswood,Finnish maker of novel building materials; Coodo of German(mobile buildings); Polysolar of the UK, manufacturer/developer of PV glass.

33 Birth of truly global companies: Luxottica of Italy, with base in the Alps but production bases in the US, Brazil, China

34 But note that even with global networking clusters remain important (IMA packaging machine leader, part of key engineering centre in Bologna)

35 Holovis (UK): world leader in projection/design systems; applications in manufacturing, simulation-based training, films, gaming

36 Connected manufacturing links with longdistance service, monitoring of products in use

37 Goppion of Italy: world leader in high-tech museum installations

38 The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World 2. CREATIVITY Blending of technologies Environmental enhancement Niche thinking 37

39 Technology blending: aerospace offers many examples (Airbus A-350 wing production near Chester)

40 Carbon fibre production and gene-chips (examples of technology mix)

41 An Italian success: Diasorin testing reagents (Based near Novara, involves mix biotech/electronics/materials)

42 Shigenobu Nagamori of Nidec (Japan): move to reduce energy consumption of electric motors (250bn in the world)

43 Arvedi (Italy): a 600m gamble on endless strip process to improve steel s environmental performance

44 Environmental stewardship: Dando Drilling (UK)

45 Manufacturing specialisation : leverage innovation (Touch Bionics, UK)

46 Worldwide food security: Air Tractor of Texas flying ahead with crop sprayers

47 Niche meisters from Germany: Herrenknecht (tunnelling machines)

48 Sugru (UK) : maker of consumer glue/paste using clever chemistry Jane Ní Dhulchaointigh- founder in factory in Hackney, London

49 The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World 3. CUSTOMISATION Mass personalisation 3D printing Robotic tools 48

50 Manufacturing personalisation: car production

51 Essilor of France world leader in customised lenses using high-tech machines

52 The Zara production model short production runs, made near the customer

53 MED-EL of Austria: leader in cochlear implants Founders Dr. Ingeborg Hochmair and Prof. Erwin Hochmair

54 Children s suitcases, made in multiple variations by Trunki (UK) Founder, Rob Law, in Plymouth factory

55 3D printing adding materials in layers (a form of additive technology)

56 3D printing in small distributed factories (Local Motors of Arizona)

57 China is making big strides in 3D printing (Beijing Long Yuan machines)

58 A range of new products/parts is possible New materials: carbon fibre composites (Beijing Long Yuan workshop)

59 Make your own 16 th century cornett (Ricardo Simian of Switzerland uses 3D printing)

60 Printing human tissue in the laboratory: Organovo of California

61 Low-cost automation: Universal Robots (Denmark)

62 Future Robot of South Korea moves ahead in personal robots

63 obots for domestic tasks (Samsung Powerbot)

64 The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for Europe and the World What manufacturing means Global trends Impact of digital/tech convergence Strategies 63

65 Transfer skills/ideas globally (Crompton Greaves power company, India) Inside Crompton Greaves Belgium factory

66 Plan sensibly but be ambitious (Shinola employs 300 making watches, bicycles in Detroit)

67 Make room for mavericks (Sir James Dyson of Dyson appliance company, UK)

68 Don t jettison manual skillssome production jobs hard to automate (Princess Yachts, UK )

69 ICT isn t everything: You can make a success of cutting metal cleverly (Raphael Gorge of Gorge Groupe, France)

70 Support specialists: Blum of Austria, leader in hinges/fasteners

71 Combine technologies, using lessons from different sectors (Trumpf of Germany, from laser cutting to semiconductors)

72 Boost training

73 and don t forget to inspire (Diego Rivera murals, Detroit Institute of Art)