Information Technology and the Japanese Growth Recovery

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1 Information Technology and the Japanese Growth Recovery By Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard University) and Koji Nomura (Keio University) February 14, 2006

2 Economic Growth in the Information Age The Information Age: Faster, Better, Cheaper! Role of Information Technology: IT Prices and the Cost of Capital Japanese Growth Recovery: IT Investment and Productivity Growth Economics on Internet Time: The New Research Agenda

3 The Information Age: Faster, Better, Cheaper! Moore (1998): "If the automobile industry advanced as rapidly as the semiconductor industry, a Rolls Royce would get half a million miles per gallon, and it would be cheaper to throw it away than to park it." Invention of the Transistor: Development of Semiconductor Technology. The Integrated Circuit: Memory Chips; Logic Chips. Moore s Law: The number of transistors on a chip doubles every months(pentium 4, released November 20,2000, has 42 million transistors).

4 Source: No Exponential is Forever, Gordon Moore ftp://download.intel.com/research/silicon/gordon_moore_isscc_ pdf)

5 Holding Quality Constant Matched Models and Hedonics Semiconductor Price Indexes: Memory and Logic Chips. Computer Price Indexes: The BEA-IBM Collaboration. Communications Equipment: Terminal, Switching, and Transmission. Software: Prepackaged, Custom, and Own-Account.

6 Relative Prices of Computers and Semiconductors, All price indexes are divided by the output price index. 100 Log Scale (1996=1.0) Computers Memory Logic

7 NTRS 1994 NTRS Minimum Feature Size (nm) (DRAM Half Pitch) International SEMATECH 1997 NTRS 1998 / 1999 ITRS 2001/ 2003 ITRS* Area for Future ITRS Acceleration Acceleration *Note the 2003 ITRS timing is unchanged from the 2001 ITRS Semiconductor Roadmap Acceleration

8 Relative Prices of Computers, Communication Equipment, and Software, All price indexes are divided by the output price index. Log Scale (1996=1.0) Computers Central Office Switching Equipment Prepackaged Software

9 Role of Information Technology: IT Prices, Investment, and Productivity Input Shares of IT: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. Capital Contribution: IT versus Non-IT Capital Services. Capital Contribution by Type: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software.

10 IT Capital Stock in Japan Real composition of total IT capital stock (1995 price) Share (%) Computers Communication Equipment Custom Software Packaged Software Own Account Software

11 Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology in the U.S. Average annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares. 2.5 Annual Contribution (%) Non-IT Capital Services IT Capital Services

12 Annual Contribution (%) Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology in Japan Average annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares Non-IT Capital Services IT Capital Services

13 0.4 IT Capital Input Contribution to Growth in Japan Average annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares. Annual Contribution (%) Computers Communication Equipment Custom Software Packaged Software Own Account Software

14 Household Finance Wholesale Trade Business Svc excl. Computer Professional and Social Svcs Communications Government excl. Education Computer Services Retail and Eating Real Estate (rental) Insurance M achinery excl. Computers Printing and Publishing Government Enterprises Transportation Health private Other Services Electricity Instruments and Legal Chemicals Electronic Components Government Education Oil and Gas Mining Communications Equipment Food and Tobacco Other Transportation Construction Gas Fabricated Metal Computers and Office Other Electrical M ach M otor Vehicles Rubber and Plastic Stone, Clay, Glass Paper Textiles, Apparel, Leather Lumber, Wood, Furniture Primary Metal Agriculture Education, private Petroleum Refining Non energy M ining Coal Mining Industry Contributions to Capital Input Growth in the U.S., Non-IT Capital IT Capital Note: Industries sorted by IT Capital contribution

15 Other Service Finance and Insurance Public Administration Communications Wholesale and Retail Electronic Components Other Electrical M ach Construction Electricity Chemical Products Medical Care Computers Railroad Transportation M achinery excl Computers Printing and Publishing Road Transportation Motor Vehicles Foods Other Manufacturing Education Communications Equipment Precision Instruments Iron and Steel Metal Products Real Estate Research Petroleum Refining Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery Gas Supply Non-ferrous Metal Stone, Clay, Glass Storage Facility Service Paper and Pulp Air Transportation Textile Other Transportation Equipment Water Supply Rubber Products Apparel Coal Products Furniture and Fixture Woods and Related Products Leather Products Other Mining Coal Mining Water Transportation Industry Contributions to Capital Input Growth in Japan, Non-IT Capital IT Capital Note: Industries sorted by IT Capital contribution

16 3.0 Capital Input Contribution by Country US Canada UK France Germany Italy Japan Non-IT IT

17 Japanese Growth Recovery: IT Investment and Productivity Growth. Total Factor Productivity: IT-Production versus Non-IT Production. Sources of Japanese Economic Growth: Capital Input, Labor Input, and TFP. Average Labor Productivity Growth: Capital Deepening, Labor Quality, TFP.

18 Productivity Contribution of IT Producing Industries in the U.S. Average annual percentage growth rates, weighted by Domar weights. Annual Contribution (%) Other Industries IT Producing Industries

19 Productivity Contribution of IT Producing Industries in Japan 1.5 Average annual percentage growth rates, weighted by Domar weights. Annual Contribution (%) Other Industries IT Producing Industries

20 Industry Productivity Growth in the U.S., Computers and Office Electronic Components Coal Mining Agriculture Communications Equipment Rubber and Plastic Textiles, Apparel, Leather Wholesale Trade Primary Metal Other Electrical M ach Non Energy Mining Finance Fabricated M etal Stone, Clay, Glass Food and Tobacco Other Transportation Equipment Instruments and M iscellaneous Electricity Lumber, Wood, Furniture Paper Real Estate (rental) Transportation Retail and Eating Communications Government Enterprises Government Education Government excl. Education Household Other Services Computer Services M otor Vehicles Chemicals Professional and Social Svcs. Business Svc excl. Computer Petroleum Refining M achinery excl. Computers Printing and Publishing Education, private Gas Construction Oil and Gas Mining Legal Health private Insurance Note: Industries sorted by productivity growth

21 Industry Productivity Growth in Japan, Computers Electronic Components Communications Communications Equipment Textile Petroleum Refining Gas Supply Non-ferrous Metal Precision Instruments Wholesale and Retail Finance and Insurance Other Electrical M ach Chemical Products Coal Products Air Transportation M otor Vehicles Other Transportation Real Estate Paper and Pulp M achinery excl Computers Electricity Other Manufacturing Iron and Steel Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery Storage Facility Service Metal Products Rubber Products Coal Mining Stone, Clay, Glass Apparel Public Administration Printing and Publishing Other Service Woods and Related Products Leather Products Furniture and Fixture Water Transportation Other Mining Construction Research Road Transportation Railroad Transportation Foods Water Supply Education M edical Care Note: Industries sorted by productivity growth

22 Industry Contributions to Productivity in the U.S., Computers and Office Equipment Electronic Components Wholesale Trade Agriculture Finance Food and Tobacco Textiles, Apparel, Leather Rubber and Plastic Real Estate (rental) Primary Metal Other Electrical M ach Coal Mining Communications Equipment Instruments and Miscellaneous Manuf. Retail and Eating Fabricated M etal Other Transportation Equipment Transportation Lumber, Wood, Furniture Electricity Stone, Clay, Glass Paper Non energy Mining Communications Government Enterprises Other Services Government Education Government excl. Education Household M otor Vehicles Chemicals Computer Services Education, private Petroleum Refining Printing and Publishing Business Svc excl. Computer Legal M achinery excl. Computers Professional and Social Svcs Gas Insurance Oil and Gas Mining Health private Construction Note: Industries sorted by productivity contribution

23 Wholesale and Retail Electronic Components Communications Real Estate Finance and Insurance Other Electrical M ach Computers M otor Vehicles Chemical Products Petroleum Refining M achinery excl Computers Iron and Steel Textile Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery Non-ferrous Metal Communications Equipment Electricity Other Manufacturing Paper and Pulp Precision Instruments Other Transportation Metal Products Gas Supply Coal Products Stone, Clay, Glass Air Transportation Rubber Products Storage Facility Service Coal Mining Apparel Public Administration Printing and Publishing Leather Products Woods and Related Products Research Furniture and Fixture Other Mining Water Supply Water Transportation Railroad Transportation Other Service Road Transportation Education Foods M edical Care Construction Industry Contributions to Productivity in Japan, Note: Industries sorted by productivity contribution

24 Sources of Economic Growth in the U.S. Annual Contribution (%) Labor Non-IT Capital IT Capital TFP

25 Sources of Economic Growth in Japan Annual Contribution (%) Labor Non-IT Capital IT Capital TFP

26 Computers and Office Electronic Components Computer Services Communications Equipment Finance Business Svc excl. Computer Communications Professional and Social Svcs. Wholesale Trade Household Rubber and Plastic Other Services Instruments and Miscellaneous Health private Transportation Real Estate (rental) Retail and Eating Motor Vehicles Government Enterprises Education, private Agriculture Other Transportation Equipment Insurance Other Electrical Mach Electricity Government Education Printing and Publishing Lumber, Wood, Furniture Fabricated Metal Coal Mining Legal Stone, Clay, Glass Construction Paper Food and Tobacco Non Energy Mining Chemicals Machinery excl. Computers Government excl. Education Petroleum Refining Textiles, Apparel, Leather Primary Metal Oil and Gas Mining Gas Sources of Growth in Industry Output in the U.S., Intermediate Labor Capital TFP Note: Industries sorted by output growth

27 Computers Electronic Components Communications Equipment Communications Air Transportation Other Electrical Mach Gas Supply Finance and Insurance Other Service Motor Vehicles Other Manufacturing Real Estate Machinery excl Computers Medical Care Electricity Research Storage Facility Service Precision Instruments Printing and Publishing Public Administration Wholesale and Retail Chemical Products Road Transportation Water Supply Metal Products Rubber Products Construction Railroad Transportation Non-ferrous Metal Paper and Pulp Petroleum Refining Foods Education Stone, Clay, Glass Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery Iron and Steel Furniture and Fixture Other Transportation Equipment Water Transportation Apparel Coal Products Other Mining Woods and Related Products Leather Products Textile Coal Mining Sources of Growth in Industry Output in Japan, Intermediate Labor Capital TFP Note: Industries sorted by output growth

28 5.0 Sources of Economic Growth by Country US Canada UK France Germany Italy Japan Labor Non-IT Capital IT Capital Non-IT Total Factor Productivity IT Total Factor Productivity

29 Sources of Labor Productivity Growth in the U.S. Annual Contribution (%) Labor Quality Non-IT Capital Deepening IT Capital Deepening TFP

30 Sources of Labor Productivity Growth in Japan Annual Contribution (%) Labor Quality Non-IT Capital Deepening IT Capital Deepening TFP

31 Computers and Office Equipment Electronic Components Communications Equipment Coal Mining Finance Household Other Electrical Mach Instruments and Miscellaneous Mfg. Textiles, Apparel, Leather Agriculture Communications Computer Services Wholesale Trade Non Energy Mining Other Transportation Equipment Primary Metal Petroleum Refining Rubber and Plastic Electricity Motor Vehicles Fabricated Metal Stone, Clay, Glass Food and Tobacco Paper Machinery excl. Computers Government Enterprises Chemicals Government excl. Education Lumber, Wood, Furniture Retail and Eating Professional and Social Svcs. Other Services Transportation Printing and Publishing Insurance Real Estate (rental) Oil and Gas Mining Government Education Education, private Health private Gas Business Svc excl. Computer Construction Legal Sources of Industry Labor Productivity Growth in the U.S., Intermediate Deepening Labor Quality Capital Deepening Productivity Note: Industries sorted by ALP growth

32 Computers Electronic Components Communications Equipment Communications Coal Mining Other Electrical Mach Railroad Transportation Textile Motor Vehicles Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery Precision Instruments Finance and Insurance Air Transportation Public Administration Other Transportation Rubber Products Other Manufacturing Gas Supply Metal Products Coal Products Non-ferrous Metal Other Mining Electricity Wholesale and Retail Other Service Machinery excl Computers Chemical Products Apparel Storage Facility Service Real Estate Petroleum Refining Printing and Publishing Paper and Pulp Water Transportation Stone, Clay, Glass Iron and Steel Water Supply Furniture and Fixture Road Transportation Construction Woods and Related Products Research Medical Care Leather Products Education Foods Sources of Industry Labor Productivity Growth in Japan, Intermediate Deepening Labor Quality Capital Deepening Productivity Note: Industries sorted by ALP growth

33 3.50 Sources of Labor Productivity Growth by Country US Canada UK France Germany Italy Japan Labor Quality Non IT Capital Deepening IT Capital Deepening Non-IT Total Factor Productivity IT Total Factor Productivity Annual Contribution (%)

34 TFP-gap between the U.S. and Japan in 1960 Note: Preliminary Estimates (Feb 2006) Aggregate 42.Household 41.Public Administration 38.Research 40.Other Services 39.Medical Care 37.Education 36.Real Estate 35.Finance and Insurance 34.Wholesale and Retail 33.Gas Supply 32.Electricity 31.Communications 30.Other Trans and Storage 29.Air Transportation 28.Water Transportation 27.Railroad Transportation 26.Misc Manufacturing 25.Precision Instruments 24.Other Transportation Equipmen 23.Motor Vehicles 22.Other Electrical Machinery 21.Electronic Components 20.Communications Equipment 19.Computers 18.Machinery 17.Metal Products 16.Primary Metal 15.Stone, Clay, Glass 14.Leather Products 13.Petroleum Refining 12.Chemical Products 11.Printing and Publishing 10.Paper and Pulp 9.Furniture and Fixture 8.Woods and Related Products 7.Apparel 6.Textile 5.Foods 4.Construction 3.Other Mining 2.Coal Mining 1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery

35 TFP-gap between the U.S. and Japan in 1970 Note: Preliminary Estimates (Feb 2006) Aggregate 42.Household 41.Public Administration 38.Research 40.Other Services 39.Medical Care 37.Education 36.Real Estate 35.Finance and Insurance 34.Wholesale and Retail 33.Gas Supply 32.Electricity 31.Communications 30.Other Trans and Storage 29.Air Transportation 28.Water Transportation 27.Railroad Transportation 26.Misc Manufacturing 25.Precision Instruments 24.Other Transportation Equipmen 23.Motor Vehicles 22.Other Electrical Machinery 21.Electronic Components 20.Communications Equipment 19.Computers 18.Machinery 17.Metal Products 16.Primary Metal 15.Stone, Clay, Glass 14.Leather Products 13.Petroleum Refining 12.Chemical Products 11.Printing and Publishing 10.Paper and Pulp 9.Furniture and Fixture 8.Woods and Related Products 7.Apparel 6.Textile 5.Foods 4.Construction 3.Other Mining 2.Coal Mining 1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery

36 TFP-gap between the U.S. and Japan in 1980 Note: Preliminary Estimates (Feb 2006) Aggregate 42.Household 41.Public Administration 38.Research 40.Other Services 39.Medical Care 37.Education 36.Real Estate 35.Finance and Insurance 34.Wholesale and Retail 33.Gas Supply 32.Electricity 31.Communications 30.Other Trans and Storage 29.Air Transportation 28.Water Transportation 27.Railroad Transportation 26.Misc Manufacturing 25.Precision Instruments 24.Other Transportation Equipmen 23.Motor Vehicles 22.Other Electrical Machinery 21.Electronic Components 20.Communications Equipment 19.Computers 18.Machinery 17.Metal Products 16.Primary Metal 15.Stone, Clay, Glass 14.Leather Products 13.Petroleum Refining 12.Chemical Products 11.Printing and Publishing 10.Paper and Pulp 9.Furniture and Fixture 8.Woods and Related Products 7.Apparel 6.Textile 5.Foods 4.Construction 3.Other Mining 2.Coal Mining 1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery

37 TFP-gap between the U.S. and Japan in 1990 Note: Preliminary Estimates (Feb 2006) Aggregate 42.Household 41.Public Administration 38.Research 40.Other Services 39.Medical Care 37.Education 36.Real Estate 35.Finance and Insurance 34.Wholesale and Retail 33.Gas Supply 32.Electricity 31.Communications 30.Other Trans and Storage 29.Air Transportation 28.Water Transportation 27.Railroad Transportation 26.Misc Manufacturing 25.Precision Instruments 24.Other Transportation Equipmen 23.Motor Vehicles 22.Other Electrical Machinery 21.Electronic Components 20.Communications Equipment 19.Computers 18.Machinery 17.Metal Products 16.Primary Metal 15.Stone, Clay, Glass 14.Leather Products 13.Petroleum Refining 12.Chemical Products 11.Printing and Publishing 10.Paper and Pulp 9.Furniture and Fixture 8.Woods and Related Products 7.Apparel 6.Textile 5.Foods 4.Construction 3.Other Mining 2.Coal Mining 1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery

38 TFP-gap between the U.S. and Japan in 2000 Note: Preliminary Estimates (Feb 2006) Aggregate 42.Household 41.Public Administration 38.Research 40.Other Services 39.Medical Care 37.Education 36.Real Estate 35.Finance and Insurance 34.Wholesale and Retail 33.Gas Supply 32.Electricity 31.Communications 30.Other Trans and Storage 29.Air Transportation 28.Water Transportation 27.Railroad Transportation 26.Misc Manufacturing 25.Precision Instruments 24.Other Transportation Equipmen 23.Motor Vehicles 22.Other Electrical Machinery 21.Electronic Components 20.Communications Equipment 19.Computers 18.Machinery 17.Metal Products 16.Primary Metal 15.Stone, Clay, Glass 14.Leather Products 13.Petroleum Refining 12.Chemical Products 11.Printing and Publishing 10.Paper and Pulp 9.Furniture and Fixture 8.Woods and Related Products 7.Apparel 6.Textile 5.Foods 4.Construction 3.Other Mining 2.Coal Mining 1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery

39 2.0 TFP-gap between the U.S. and Japan for three IT-Producing Industries, Log Scale (1996=1.0) Computers Communications Equipment Electric Components Note: Preliminary Estimates (Feb 2006)

40 Economics on Internet Time: The New Research Agenda. The Solow Paradox -- we see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics -- versus the Information Age. Equity Valuations and Growth Prospects: accumulation of intangible assets versus irrational exuberance. Widening Wage Inequality:capital-skill complementarity versus skillbiased technical change. Modeling IT and the semiconductor industry: permanent versus transitory contributions to economic growth.

41 Data for Japanese Economy Periods ( for Capital Stock) Industry Classification 46 Industries + Household 3 IT Producers (Computer & Peripherals, Communication Equipment, and Electronic Components) +43 Industries at KEO Database Asset Classification 102 Asset Classification by 46 Industries 90 Tangible Assets 5 Intangible Assets (3 Software, others) 3 Inventories 4 Types of Land Use

42 International Comparison of Software Professionals Year Share to total employees ISCO-213 ISCO-312 ISCO-213/ ( ) Greece Spain France Netherlands U.S Sweden Japan Data: Employee Base, U.S.(Occupational Employment and Wages, BLS), Japan(Population Census, MIC), Others(OECD, Ahmad [2003]) Classification: U.S. SOC ,30, 50 and JSCO-06 correspond to ISCO-213

43 Software Professionals in Japan Employment Total Male Female Employee Total Male Female Data: Population Census, MIC, Japan (Koji Nomura[2004]:Capitalizing Own-Account Software in Japan)

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