The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 1/27

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1 iioiioiioiioiioiioiioiioiioiioiioiioiioiioiioiioiio ioiioiioiioiio oiioiioiioiioiio iioiioxford internet ins tute university of oxfordoiioi Introduction Previous Work Research Questions Methods and Approach Contributions Conclusion Questions The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: An Analysis and Simulation of Social Media Mechanisms in the Context of the Arab Spring, Indignados and Occupy Movements Wybo Wiersma mail@wybowiersma.net Oxford Internet Institute University of Oxford Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 1/27

2 Introduction Recent wave of protest movements Arab Spring Indignados Occupy Wall Street Portrayed as Internet Revolutions but were they? could they have been? Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 2/27

3 Introduction Divided between Internet optimists; Yochai Benkler and Howard Rheingold many-to-many, more democratic, smart mobs And pessimists; Matthew Hindman, Evgeny Morozov barely used for politics, centalisation, slactivism But their views are not mutually exclusive The thesis will clarify How it is unlikely that the Internet could *not* have had any impact on collective action Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 3/27

4 Introduction Examine whether The Internet changed the media landscape such as to make the initiation of social movements more or less likely Focus on communicative social mechanisms Using agent-based modelling to tease out emergent effects Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 4/27

5 Previous Work The thesis builds on three traditions 1 Social movements literature core concepts 2 Analytical sociology social mechanisms approach 3 Formal modelling agent-based models Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 5/27

6 Previous Work: Social Movements Literature Core concepts Mobilization structures, threats, grievances Tilly s basic model Falsified preferences adjusting to circumstances, being realistic Hidden transcripts hiding political criticism, discuss among trusted Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 6/27

7 Previous Work: Social Movements Literature Models Olson s micro-economics of collective action Bikhchandani s cascades (social proof) Granovetters threshold model personal threshold k for when to join riot k = 2 missing from thresholds (0, 1, 3, ) two rabble rousers amidst solid citizens Epsteins model of protest Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 7/27

8 Previous Work: Social Movements Literature Arab Spring literature Paulo Gerbaudo, seasonal tribes Navid Hassanpour, Internet shutdown drew to streets Manuel Castells,... McAdam s Dynamics of contention Comparative social mechanisms across time and space Uses social mechanisms but not strictly individualist Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 8/27

9 Previous Work: Social Mechanisms Social mechanisms cogs and wheels of interactions between individuals that bring about macro effects Jon Elster, James Coleman, Peter Hedstrom Example Triadic closure friends of friends becoming friends Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 9/27

10 Previous Work: Social Mechanisms Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 10/27

11 Previous Work: Social Mechanisms Focus on social mechanisms brings Precision, grounding, abstraction examine mechanisms across time and place Avoid pitfalls of Grand theorizing inexact, not grounded, inconsistent Merely pointing out (possible) correlations misses emergence, co-founded, imprecise Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 11/27

12 Previous Work: Social Mechanisms Data Rarely available for all micro interactions Not for Arab Spring, Indignados, Occupy... due to walled gardens / lost history Nor for multimodal communication Hence this thesis takes a theoretical approach using Agent-based Modelling for consistency and grounding Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 12/27

13 Previous Work: Formal Modelling Agent-based Modelling is different from Analytic modelling, which has relations between macro-variables (VS Coleman) homogenous agents Game-theory, which has rational agents ignores structural / spatial factors ABM is used in economics, anthropology and sociology Thomas Schelling s segregation model Daniel Helbing s, pedestrian movements Joshua Epstein s, civic protest model Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 13/27

14 Previous Work: Formal Modelling Generative plurality Infinitely many models can generate same results Same is true for empirical research B follows A, does not mean A caused B, Hume Only generative sufficiency can be demonstrated historical proof needs bracketing Focus on theorizing, formalizing precise interactions Virtual experiment that excludes confounding factors keeping all causal links tractable Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 14/27

15 Previous Work: Formal Modelling Parsimony is important Don t replace a complicated reality with a complicated model ABM has a bit of an image problem Many papers don t keep limits in mind due to toy-like NetLogo, and game development Emergent effects may be obvious in hindsight and assumptions are forced and explicit But ABM can be done right assumptions can be grounded and well-informed Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 15/27

16 Research Questions Main question Could the Internet and the advent of social media have changed the media landscape in such a way as to make Sub-question 1 the initiation of social movements more or less likely? What relevant social mechanisms can be identified that were potentially affected or introduced by the Internet Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 16/27

17 Research Questions Sub-question 2 How does protest movement initiation differ across three media landscapes 1 Situation before the Internet face 2 face, newspapers, TV, telephone 2 Internet as it was in the 1990 s passive pages, usenet; silo-style communities 3 Web 2.0 blogs, social media, mobiles; integrating on- & off-line Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 17/27

18 Research Questions Two axis Three media landscapes Three movements Arab Spring, Indignados, Occupy The movements varied in Internet penetration rates Supression and censorship Grievance levels Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 18/27

19 Methods and Approach Thesis will be bipartite Part A Part B Modelling is a somewhat novel method so a-tech/modelling sceptics can still read the narrative part Technical and narrative discourse separated Sociological narrative Formalizations and the model Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 19/27

20 Methods and Approach: Part A (narrative) Sociological narrative Introduces social mechanisms and how potentially affected Describes them (richly) Across the three successive landscapes Based on literature and media properties informed by part B Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 20/27

21 Methods and Approach: Part A (narrative) Mechanisms already identified Internet-usage cutting into f2f time reducing local engagement Slacktivism online contributions deter offline ones Continuous stream Twitter keeping people engaged Hidden transcripts leaking through Facebook to parents / colleagues in network Young/progressive Internet population progressive bias, more inclined to protest Social media relayed through TV overcomes low penetration rates Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 21/27

22 Methods and Approach: Part B (modelling) Formalizations and the model Desciption of the model and the outcomes of various runs Grounded in part A and communicative profiles and replayed data (for reasonable parameters) ABMs at minimum consist of Entities that act according to decision-rules often memory, calculations, and observations (of others) in a spatial environment Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 22/27

23 Methods and Approach: Part B (modelling) Entities in the model Agents citizens and state-actors Media newspapers, Radio/TV, telephones (also mobiles), , webpages, forums, blogs, Twitter, Facebook Environment location, terminals / messages Time 6 ticks per hour (10 minutes per tick) Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 23/27

24 Methods and Approach: Part B (modelling) Bulletin board style forum Pull, many-to-many, asynchronious, continuous Agents can (at each tick) Visit read messages (political & non-political) Post leave messages, indicate support Build trust through repeated interaction Contact authors Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 24/27

25 Contributions The thesis will contribute in the following ways A comprehensive model of social media effects Clarification of the debate per social-mechanism and media platform (+ interactions) Bipartite approach digestable for sociologers and modellers Can show relevance of media-studies for sociology great consequences need no great causes Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 25/27

26 Conclusion The thesis will examine whether the Internet Affects the initiation of social movements Across three media landscapes before, 1990 s, and Web 2.0 Through the modelling of social mechanisms Allowing us to tease out emergent effects And show how small shifts in media usage can have great effects Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 26/27

27 Questions Any questions / comments?...no need for hidden transcripts... ;-) Wybo Wiersma The Internet as a Catalyst for Social Movements: 27/27