Global System Science

Transcription

1 Global System Science Main Contact: Ralph Dum Digital Science DG CONNECT European Commission Peter Baudains, Steven Bishop University College London

2 Why? We face global challenges that include: climate change, water shortage, pandemics Ralph Dum Digital Science DG CONNECT European Commission energy sufficiency and security civil unrest cyber crime financial instability.. Information technology has changed our world Problem of coordination of governance

3 Webs that span the globe Humanity has spun many webs IT has helped these to become global - e.g. trade, finance, terrorism, NGO, UN... ICT weaves new social webs -the World Wide Web - facebook, twitter, Weibo,... Threat: Global hyper connected webs/networks are a challenge for governance Opportunity: Can we profit from the collective power of such webs/networks? (to form global solution networks ) We are animals suspended in webs of significance that we ourselves have spun (Clifford Geertz).

4 What? Global System Science (GSS) is used for global challenges and takes into account: connections across national borders Ralph Dum Digital Science DG CONNECT European Commission connections across policy sectors connections between people and their interactions, which uses: systems approach knowledge of complex systems to understand systemic risk and to support decision making

5 What is new? Big data Large scale simulations Social media implies open knowledge Ralph Dum Digital Science DG CONNECT European Commission Complex Systems Theory provides underpinning concepts: Science of networks, systems dynamics, system theory (robustness, resilience, extreme events, )

6 Participatory IoT, Sensors Media Trends Commercial Data sets Social media Open Data Sets Topics Correlations Data Analytics Sentiments Frequency Transparency Trust

7 Simulations Large scale simulations (HPC, Cloud) of interconnected systems using: numerical solutions of PDEs dynamical systems (ODEs or discrete systems) agent based models (ABMs) stochastic processes or a combination to form multi-scale models

8 Citizen Science Projects driven by the Internet and social media with citizen participation in the gathering of information Ralph Dumand knowledge Digital Science using: DG CONNECT European Commission teams of scientists often globally dispersed non-specialists involved users who become sensors The way we obtain knowledge and make decisions becomes open

9 Complex Systems Science of Networks Structure, dynamics and control Ralph Dum Digital Science Systems theory DG CONNECT European Commission Resilience, extreme behaviour and critical thresholds Statistical mechanics Measuring and modelling interacting entities Multi-scale, multi-domain, multi-objective

10 How? FET (Units C2 in DG CONNECT) has funded a number of projects which build the scientific base A new division of the DG CONNECT- Unit C3 Digital Science - has been formed to tackle the issue Policy informatics in support of evidence-based policies Policy informatics in support of evidencebased policies Social informatics to link scientist, policy makers, citizens and machines

11 GSS Goals Provide scientific evidence in support of policy addressing global challenges. Make science part of the societal dialogues and societal action that underpin policy actions.

12 FP7 GSS project: FOC : Too connected to fail Understanding systemic risk in the banking systems via network analysis of data on credit networks Example of policy-use: Collaboration with DG Markt on shadow banking regulation Debtrank of banks: Too connected to fail (banks are ranked according to their capacity to cause a cascading failure in the banking systems)

13 GLEamviz: global epidemic model D.Balcan, V. Colizza, B. Gonçalves, H. Hu, J. J. Ramasco, A. Vespignani Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106, (2009).

14 GLEaMviz: Global Epidemic and Mobility Model

15 EveryAware: Collective Sensing/monitoring

16 EVERYAWARE: participatory sensing Enhance environmental awareness through IT Tell me, I forget. Show me, I remember. Involve me, I understand. Chinese proverb objective/subjective monitoring pressure on policy making enhanced awareness new ICT tools change of individual behaviour

17 EveryAware Collective pollution maps

18 A new platform for web-based experiments web as a laboratory for social sciences - Realize experiments with minimal effort - Recruitment much easier than for single-experiment platforms

19 Models for urban integrated planning: land use-transport interaction activity-based microsimulation Smart technologies: Automatic collection of Spatial and Temporal Data Data, Theory, Policy interfaces, Case studies (Barcelona, Zurich, London)