Systems Hit Limits. Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) for Robustness. Darrell Mann. 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 1
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1 Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) for Robustness Darrell Mann Systems Hit Limits 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 1
2 Systems Hit Limits And Then We Innovate 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 2
3 First Principles: S-Curve anything we wish to improve time spent trying First Principles: S-Curve Robustness typically one or two nines 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 3
4 Robustness & S-Curves Reliability ( nines ) target Fundamental Limit Phase I II III TIME Robustness Phase II Robustness with Consequences Each time we do something to improve the robustness of the system, something gets worse Robustness increases Cost becomes higher Power decreases etc 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 4
5 How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress. x 9million cases = Progress Engine we want to improve but power is reduced Reliability solutions already found by others 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 5
6 Teoriya Resheniya Izobreatatelskikh Zadatch Theory of Inventive Problem Solving TRIZ As a Philosophy MILLIONS of systems HUNDREDS of different problems TENS of successful (First Principle) solutions 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 6
7 40 Inventive (First) Principles 1. Segmentation 2. Taking Out 3. Local Quality 4. Asymmetry 5. Merging 6. Universality 7. Nested Doll 8. Counterweight 9. Prior Counter-Action 10. Prior Action 11. Prior Cushioning 12. Remove Tension 13. The Other Way Round 14. Rotate 15. Dynamics 16. Slightly Less/Slightly More 17. Another Dimension 18. Vibration 19. Periodic Action 20. Continuity of Useful Action 21. Skipping 22. Blessing in Disguise 23. Feedback 24. Intermediary 25. Self-Service 26. Copying 27. Cheap/Short Living 28. Emotional Fields 29. Fluid 30. Thin & Flexible 31. Holes 32. Transparency 33. Homogeneity 34. Discarding and Recovering 35. Parameter Changes 36. Phase Transitions 37. Relative Change 38. Enriched Atmosphere 39. Calmed Atmosphere 40. Composite Structures 18 Actual Inventive (First) Principles 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 7
8 Optimization & Innovation INNOVA INNOVATION VATION successful step change Innovation? US Patent 3,216,423 98% of attempted innovations fail 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 8
9 Innovation Cruellest Game In The World Right Problem Right Solution Right Customer Right Time Right Price First Principle Contradiction Solution Patterns 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 9
10 TRIZ Pillar #1 Everything evolves to a perfect end-state (which includes 100% reliability, availability, etc) TRIZ Pillar #2 Two Ways To Get There: Add new (self) functions Solve a contradiction 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 10
11 S-Curve Journey To Perfect VALUE = IDEALITY = Benefits/(Costs + Penalties) Perfect X final GEN 2nd GEN.. 1st GEN TIME System Evolution Evolution is not random It follows certain patterns Different Stages can be predicted This knowledge can help solve problems It can also help define strategic opportunities 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 11
12 Looking For Patterns: 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 12
13 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 13
14 Looking For Patterns: Trend : Dynamization Immobile Single Joint Multiple Joint Completely Liquid Gas Field flexible 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 14
15 (Predictable) Liquid Armour ROBUST DESIGN Trial & Error Steady -State Transient Slow Degradation 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 15
16 Recalibrating Robust Robust RESILIENT DESIGN/ANTIFRAGILE Trial & Error Steady -State Transient Slow Degradation Cross- Coupling Design For Murphy Antifragile Design -improved use of design resources -reduced waste in development time/cost -reduced waste of materials -reduced product development time one nine failure rate three nines -improve product reliability five nines seven nines nine nines -improve reliability -enable easy shift to functional sales model ten nines Reasons For Jump 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 16
17 RESILIENT DESIGN/ANTIFRAGILE five nines seven nines nine nines Trial & Error Steady -State Transient Slow Degradation Cross- Coupling Design For Murphy Antifragile Design 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 17
18 FIREFIGHT BLAME DO First Principle Questions Perfect S-Curves Contradictions Evolution Patterns 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 18
19 Innovation Most Difficult Game In The World? trendna Understanding Populations Better Than They Understand Themselves Customer Need Right (1st Principle) Problem Right Solution Darrell Mann Darrell Mann Yekta Özözer Matrix 2010 Right Capability 2018, DLMann, all rights reserved. 19
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