Three Cafes: An advanced participatory methodology for futures studies JUNG BONG CHAN.

Transcription

1 Three Cafes: An advanced participatory methodology for futures studies JUNG BONG CHAN

2 1. Analysis of Existing Participatory Methodologies Scenario workshop [1], [2], [3] Creating visions -> Turning visions into reality Future visioning workshop [4] Appreciating the past Understanding the present Forecasting aspects of the futures Experiencing alternative futures Envisioning the futures Creating the futures Institutionalizing futures research [1] I. Andersen and B. Jæger, Danish participatory models, vol. 26, no. 5, pp , [2] V. a. Bañuls and M. Turoff, Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis, Techn ol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 78, no. 9, pp , Nov [3] V. a. Bañuls, M. Turoff, and S. R. Hiltz, Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency manag ement through cross-impact, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 80, no. 9, pp , Nov [4] J. Dator, Alternative Futures at the Manoa School, Futur. Stud., vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 1 18, 2009

3 1. Analysis of Existing Participatory Methodologies Future workshop [5] (1) preparatory, (2) critique, (3) fantasy and (4) implementation phase. Foresight workshop [6] (1) Preparation of the foresight; (2) Foresight diagnosis; (3) Identification of long-term issues (4) Construction of the common vision (5) Definition of the key strategic areas (6) Implementation of concrete actions; (7) Evaluation Crowdsourcing the public participation process [7] Crowdsourcing is for harnessing collective intellect and creative solutions from networks in organized ways [5] Müllert, N., R. Jungk, and Institute for Social Inventions, London (United Kingdom);. Future Workshops: How to create desirable futures. London, 1987 [6] P. Destatte, Foresight: A major tool in tackling sustainable development, Technol. Forecast. S oc. Change, vol. 77, no. 9, pp , Nov [7] D. C. Brabham, Crowdsourcing the Public Participation Process for Planning Projects, Plan. T heory, vol. 8, no. 3, pp , Jul

4 1. Analysis of Existing Participatory Methodologies Open foresight [8], [9] (1) Collective and Participatory Structure (2) Open Access, Online, and Input-Diverse (3) Incentives to Participate. Delphi Method [10] Traditional corporate foresights have generally been focused around experts and small groups, as is demonstrated by the Delphi method. [8] C. Daheim and G. Uerz, Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend b ased logics to open foresight, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag., vol. 20, n o. 3, pp , May [9] Miemis, Venessa, John Smart, and Alvis Brigis. "Open foresight," Journal of Futures Studies, vol. 17, no. 1, pp , 2012 [10] V. a. Bañuls and M. Turoff, Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 78, no. 9, pp , Nov. 2011

5 2. Limitation of traditional approaches to existing participatory methodologies 1. Many organizations rely on experts for so many things in participatory methods. Inclusion of non-expert knowledge was beneficial futures studies, since the perspectives of individuals can discover creative solutions. 2. It is hard to motivate members to participate in futures studies. If we fail to motivate members to participate, outputs and action plans will not be credible. 3. It is difficult that the merits of both online and offline environments are combined for a future research methodology in order to encourage the participation of those generations who are familiar with online and those who are familiar with offline. (with both digital natives and digital immigrants together)

6 3. Designing Advanced Participatory Methodology The methodology is comprised of three steps, the World Cafe, the Futures Cafe, and the Game Cafe, and hence is named the Three Cafes. It is based on Three Dimensional Foresight Method which is comprised of three axes : (1) Axis of Time, (2) Axis of Space, and (3) Axis of Field. Fig. Three Cafes Method based on Three Dimensional Creativity

7 4. Designing Advanced Participatory Methodology Fig. Organization of Three Cafes

8 World Cafe Selecting drivers of change in the future (Society) 사회 (Technology) 기술 (Economics) 경제 (Environment) 환경 (Political) 정치

9 World Cafe Selecting drivers of change in the future Selecting Drivers of Change in the Future of SNS - Example of the World Cafe Outcomes Classification Social Technological Economic Environmental Political Change of households Information and communications technologies Social polarization Increased use of automobiles Public sentiment Urban migration Communities Education Aged population Contact / connec tion Livelihood opportunities Climate change Capacity enhanc ement Dependence on technologies Elderly depende ncy ratio Disaster management Virtual reality games Labor vacuum Invisible effects Bionic humans Business opportunities Eco-cities Representation Policymaking Equity

10 World Cafe Selecting drivers of change in the future Identifying Issues of the Future of SNS Future issues A human clone communicates with people and reports to its owner. SNS spread to the global cyberspace. The government abolishes the SNS. Drivers of change Bionic humans, Information and communications technologies, aged population, capacity enhancement, urban migration Contact/connection, virtual reality games, communities, climate change, representation Public sentiment, social polarization, invisible effects, labor vacuum, dependence on technologies

11 Introducing the Futures Cafe Organizing four teams Exploring a future at each of the four teams How to write a scenario Organizing a scenario Deepening the scenario Character storytelling Sharing/feedback Voting Desirable future scenario One action Creating a story Selecting characters Making story pitches Making the scenario for presentation with puppet play Q&A session and questionnaires Closing

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14 Futures Cafe One action can change the whole world

15 Futures Café One action can change the whole world

16 Futures Café One action can change the whole world

17 Futures Café One action can change the whole world

18 Puppet play about Future scenarios

19 Game Cafe 1. Announcing the future images drawn in the Futures Cafe 2. Users register feasible ideas 3. Determining points and rankings after evaluation by Internet users 4. Determining outstanding ideas through repetition, circulation, and retries 5. Research members conduct their own assessment of the top ideas selected 6. Granting rewards to the final top ideas 유사사례 : 국민참여아이디어오디션 (

20 6. Operation of Three Cafes First round Future of the SNS 1 st : World and Futures Cafes Second round Future of the company, individuals,and core values 2 nd and 3 rd : World and Futures Cafes 4 th and 5 th : World, Futures, and Game Cafes No. Date Theme Methodology No. of Parti cipants 1 Mar. 6, 2014 Future of the SNS World and Futures Cafes 20 2 Mar. 14, 2014 Future of the company and individu als and core values World and Futures Cafes 22 3 Mar. 21, 2014 Future of the company and individu als and core values World and Futures Cafes 21 4 Mar. 28, 2014 Future of the company and individu World, Futures, and Game als and core values Cafes 25 5 Jul. 2, 2014 Future of the company and individu World, Futures, and Game als and core values Cafes 23 Total Five sessions in total 111

21 Questionnaires First Round Type Topic Details No. of que stions 1 Self-driven learning The act of teaching oneself about a subject 15 2 Learning culture The collective values, beliefs and principles about learning 10 Second Round Total 25 Type Topic Details No. of que stions 1 Degree of self-change for the future Changes in missions and core values 2 2 Degree of changing the future image Changing the future image of Degree of thinking about the future Thinking about the future of oneself and the co mpany 2 4 Degree of practicing core values Measuring the power of execution of the six co re values 23 Total 29

22 7. Analysis First Round Sub-factor Average Difference Pre-workshop survey Post-workshop survey t p Self-driven learning *** Learning culture *** After the workshop, the participants self-driven learning and learning culture for the future were found to have improved. Second Round Sub-factor Pre-workshop survey Post-workshop survey Difference Average Average t p Self-change for the future ** Changing the future image * Degree of thinking about the future *** Power of executing core values *** After the workshop, the four sub-factors were all found to have improved.

23 7. Analysis Three Cafes Average Difference Classific ation Theme <2 nd and 3 rd > World and Futur es Cafes <4 th and 5 th > World, Futures, and Game Cafes p 1 Self-change for the future Changing the future image Degree of thinking about the future ** 4 Power of executing core values *** As a result of comparing the second and third workshops involving the World Cafe and Futures Cafe and the fourth and fifth workshops involving all of the World Cafe, Futures Cafe, and Game Cafe, the four sub-factors mentioned above all.

24 8. Conclusion The participants in the five workshops reported that the four factors had improved on average in the post-workshop survey than in the pre-workshop one. The participants found themselves more able to change themselves for the future, think more about the future, envision the future image more frequently, and imagine a new future image after visualizing futures. One action for the future from one person One action for the future from one person If all together, it could be big wave and it can make preferred and desirable futures.

25 Thank you!