Conference. Visegrád, 22 November Society of Petroleum Engineers

Transcription

1 Advanced Technologies and Future Challenges in E&P Conference Visegrád, 22 November 2012 Society of Petroleum Engineers 1

2 Future Challenges in the Upstream Innovation Prepared by: Tibor Ördög Advanced Technologies and Future Challenges in E&P Conference Visegrád, 22 November 2012 Society of Petroleum Engineers 2

3 Motto: Be SURFace ACTive AgeNT and be the first! 3

4 Agenda Overview of R&D activities worldwide in E&P industry Our R&D targets External partners Surface related activities Our R&D strengths Summary 4

5 Agenda Overview of R&D activities worldwide in E&P industry Our R&D targets External partners Surface related activities Our R&D strengths Summary 5

6 The upstream value chain BUSINESSES AND PRODUCTS - THE UPSTREAM VALUE CHAIN EXPLORATION DISCOVERY OF FIELDS FIELD DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPED FIELDS READY FOR PRODUCTION PRODUCTION ACQUISITION DIVESTITURE ACQUISITION DIVESTITURE ACQUISITION DIVESTITURE TRADING EXPLORATION BLOCKS WITH PROGNOSTIC RESERVES PROVED UNDEVELOPED RESERVES PROVED DEVELOPED RESERVES PRODUCED OIL & GAS MARKETED PRODUCTS 6

7 BUSINESS VALUE CREATING R&D&I Market Environment Hydrocarbon Industry is Capital & Knowledge Intensive CAPITAL INTENSIVE Decisions bear long-term consequences -in a volatile market environment Project lead time usually exceeds five years Technologies are matured, where any performance improvement requires x-high development costs Development risks usually shared in consortium/alliances KNOWLEDGE Old model of exclusive/concentrated/ proprietary knowledge centers no longer valid Access to information became faster and easier Too many and contrasting pieces on a single subject are available (internet, webinars, etc.) The competence of finding/assessing/selecting/using relevant knowledge becomes of strategic importance Customer Demands Timely identification, planning and investments into future products and flexible-enough technologies requires stronger-than-ever/hand-in-hand/in-house R&D and Knowledge Management capabilities Regulation Environment 7

8 Factors influencing E&P innovation and technology Level of influence None Government policies Field investments Cyclical mindset Talent attention Low Techn. R&D investments E&P Co. Organization Innovation and technology development E&P strategy Sourcing High Source: McKinsey 8

9 To-do s s for E&P companies Use modern valuation methods as the basis for investment decisions Secure long term stability and scale in funding of technology innovation and development avoid cyclical behavior Ensure that new, promising technologies are given testing opportunities, e.g. through explicit funds to technology manager to buy testing opportunities Techn. R&D investments Ensure that technology and competence processes across assets are efficient secure a global approach when appropriate. Use technology architects and internal VC to run technology projects as a business Be open to share and receive ideas with others, avoid not invented here syndrome Stimulate people to drive innovation and technology development E&P Co. Organization Innovation and technology development E&P Co. strategy Develop a technology based strategy Make deliberate decisions on where to be the technology leader and follower and when to collaborate for each cluster of technologies Protect your intellectual property Sourcing Understand your suppliers economics, and give them incentives to work jointly with you to maximise value from new technologies Actively explore alliances with small players 9 Source: McKinsey

10 MOL R&D vs. Industry players R&D Companies Net Sales (m EUR) R&D costs (m EUR) R&D in proportion to Net Sales (%) MOL Group ,7 7,6 8,4 7,7 7,2 0,05 0,07 0,06 0,07 0,05 MOL Plc ,6 4,2 5,0 5,3 4,9 0,04 0,06 0,06 0,08 0,08 ExxonMobile ,22 0,23 0,20 0,35 0,27 Royal Dutch Shell ,28 0,34 0,28 0,40 0,28 TOTAL ,42 0,43 0,38 0,58 0,45 BP ,15 0,20 0,16 0,25 0,26 Eni ,26 0,24 0,20 0,25 0,22 DONG Energy ,59 1,15 1,89 2,15 1,50 Repsol YPF ,14 0,15 0,14 0,16 0,13 Neste Oil Corporation ,17 0,23 0,25 0,38 0,34 OMV ,07 0,08 0,05 0,08 0,07 BG ,14 0,10 0,09 0,10 0,11 ORLEN N/A N/A N/A N/A 5 5 N/A N/A N/A 0,03 0,03 N/A N/A MOL vs. competitors in the same region MOL GROUP vs. big companies R&D proportion to net sales (%) Eni ORLEN OMV MOL Group MOL Plc. Eni OMV MOL Group MOL Plc. ORLEN Net sales R&D proportion to net sales (%) TOTAL BP MOL Group Middle size companies ExxonMobile OMV Big companies MOL size companies R&D spending Year Source: EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard ( ); MOL annual report Year 10 0

11 World trends in E&P Innovation The most important actual R&D directions (worldwide) Increase the productivity (EOR/EGR /EGR/IOR/MEOR,/IOR/MEOR, Chemicals) Unconventional resources Climate changing (new energy sources) Ultra-deep/deep offshore exploration Technology development Who are the leaders? (companies, firms) Shell, TOTAL, Exxon Mobil, PetroChina, Gazprom,, BP, Chevron (Source: The 2010 R&D Scoreboard Ranking of the top 1,400 global companies by R&D R investment within industry sectors) Position of MOL Group? Probably we are in the 2nd part of the whole list. 11

12 New technologies are required to meet the opportunities and challenges in the E&P industry Business challenges Possible new technologies Increase oil recovery rate Improve economics of marginal fields Reduce operating costs Reduce exploration drilling costs Reduce development costs Smart wells Downhole separation 4C/4D seismic Reservoir optimisation and management Direct Hydro Carbon Indication (DHI) Dual-gradient drilling Deepwater slimhole drilling Subsea processing Downhole separation Reduce processing costs Reduce transportation costs and connect gas fields to markets LNG technologies Gas-to-liquid technologies (GTL) Sour gas processing technologies Environmental Reduce CO2 emission, incl. gas flaring Gas re-injection technologies Decarbonization technologies GTL Source: McKinsey Higher productivity Demanning offshore Streamlined work processes Broadband communication and remote real-time operations Visualization and groupware 12

13 Agenda Overview of R&D activities worldwide in E&P industry Our R&D targets External partners Surface related activities Our R&D strengths Summary 13

14 OUR R&D targets Exploration and field development technology: Pursue the exploitation of unconventional reservoirs resources. Develop our knowdlege about HPHT reservoir conditions Reservoir engineering technology: : applying polymer tensides and micro-biological EOR, CO2 EOR mobility control, modeling of fractured reservoirs, reduced water production from hydrocarbon wells are in progress. Solution of surface technology issues: mainly problems that emerge in the gas technologies. This group includes development of original gas hydrate inhibitor in order to replace the use of methanol; processes to remove acidic natural gas components (CO2, H2S) like additive to improve efficiency ratio of the technology, as well as membrane technology, nanoemulsions methods. HSE technology issues, increasing cost effectiveness 14

15 E&P R&D ROADMAP I. New Proposal 1 Initial/early phase D Decision point 2 Idea phase R Re-classification 3 Realization phase P Proposals 15

16 E&P R&D ROADMAP II. New Proposal 1 Initial/early phase D Decision point 2 Idea phase R Re-classification 3 Realization phase P Proposals 16

17 Embryonic Growth Mature Aging 18 Dominant Strong Favorable Tenable Weak Technological competitive position Reward High Moderate Low % 40% 60% 80% 17 2 Technology maturity Time-to-completion [year] UPSTREAM R&D project portfolio Probability of overall success (technical x market) Technologies familiarity New to the World New to MOL Known to MOL Pacing Key Base Competitive impact of technologies Markets familiarity Known To MOL New to MOL New to the World

18 Agenda Overview of R&D activities worldwide in E&P industry Our R&D targets External partners Surface related activities Our R&D strengths Summary 18

19 External Budapest Technical University Pannon University University of Miskolc Kaposvár University Szeged University Bay Zoltán Research Foundation co-operations operations E&P IFA New technologies and R&D Internal Planning and Controlling CS Legal TOP Finance INA Zagreb University Other Innovators, SME s Ploiesti and Bucuresti Universities Exploration, Production & Development DS R&D, PETCHEM R&D 19

20 Agenda Overview of R&D activities worldwide in E&P industry Our R&D targets External partners Surface related activities Our R&D strengths Summary 20

21 Future EOR potential Recovery factors UK 45 % Hungary 40% Global average waterflood recovery factor 33% 21

22 EOR R&D projects EOR mobility control with CO2 ( ): Decrease the CO2 mobility with newly developed polimer or tenside composition to reach better oil recovery in the CO2 injection tests Development of compositions are ongoing Polimer-tenside flooding pilot in Algyı ( ): Develope a polimer-tenside composition for polimer-tenside flooding in high temperature and high pressure conditions Injection test was succesful Profile control and EOR applying biotechnology methods( ): Develope a bio-polimer and bio-tenside composition for oil-viscosity decreasing and production efficiency improvement as Microbiological EOR Demjén-West huff and puff test results are positive with increased oil production with lower oil viscositiy Analysis of EOR opportunities on gas condensate wells ( ): Develope a process to stop the production decline of Baján-İri hydrocarbon condensate field First pilot well test was finished with increased production 22 22

23 Surface challenge I. Natural surfactants Wax Asphaltene Resins Shapes Cylindrical Lamellar Spherical 23

24 Surface challenge II. Surfactants Cationic Anionic Amphoteric Non-ionic/gemini Shapes Cylindrical Lamellar Spherical 24

25 Agenda Overview of R&D activities worldwide in E&P industry Our R&D targets External partners Surface related activities Our R&D strengths Summary 25

26 MOL E&P R&D strengths High technical background Well experienced R&D team Interdisciplinarity Bridging the gap between science and practice Cooperation and knowledge transfer between MOL and Hungarian universities Experience in the development of technology for HPHT reservoirs 26

27 Agenda Overview of R&D activities worldwide in E&P industry Our R&D targets External partners Surface related activities Our R&D strengths Summary 27

28 Summary and future challenges The critical elements of Upstream R&D: Joint team work management More presentation the results of R&D&I Be faster without loosing the quality More focus on practice sharing with students Well prepared for EU and Goverments Funds International partnership management Handling the more and more administration tasks More active patenting management.. 28

29 Thank You for your attention! 29

30 Be SURFace ACTive AgeNT and be the FIRST! 30