The new economy of Space, towards a new «Economical Space» «Space Resources»: commitments, reality & perspectives
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1 The new economy of Space, towards a new «Economical Space» «Space Resources»: commitments, reality & perspectives SIRIUS Talks 23 octobre 2018 Murielle Lafaye, CNES DIA-IP
2 The major changes of the Space sector economy A paradigm shift Arrival of new private investors & VC Digitalisation & new manufacturing processes Space dominance Activities beyond the GEO orbit Guerre économique Space, as a whole is turning into a new «Economical Space» 2
3 Commitments / the future economy of Space into Space The vision of ULA 3
4 Commitments / Space Resources Utilisation Available in large quantities, they have a commercial value Or~34300 /kg Platine ~26182 /kg (48000 max) Necessary for deep space exploration Not depending on Earth resources Necessary for creating a new economy of space into space Extracting, refining, manufacturing, using, recycling Space resources tech could have near-term commercial value near-term applicability in mining and energy terrestrial markets 4
5 Commitments / SRU : the Moon Oui, mais en quelles quantités? de quelle qualité? Angel Abbud-Madrid, Colorado School of Mining Space Minig Summit 28/09/2018 5
6 Commitments / SRU : the vision of ULA 6
7 Commitments / Business : first costing saving exercice - PwC Future potential market and value chains of SRU - PwC 7
8 Commitments / Business : first costing saving exercice - PwC Future potential market and value chains of SRU - PwC 8
9 Commitments / Business : first cost saving exercice - TransAstra Stepping stones: economic analysis of space transportation supplied from NEO resources, TransAstra oct
10 Commitments / Business : first cost saving exercice - TransAstra Transastra, oct
11 Commitments : summary Water, precious & rare metals, +++ Budget savings for space agencies +++ Business $,,, +++ New EL DORADO or Speculative bubble? 11
12 Reality / legal framework : Moon & celestrial bodies are non appropriables ONU, COPUOS, resolution of 1963 & the «traité de Espace» 1967 «Exploitation and use of Space for the benefit of Mankind» Regulate activities of the States in extra-atmospheric space But some countries are legalising new commercial space activities 2017, Loi sur l exploitation des ressources spatiales, Luxembourg Space Resource Exploration and Utilization Act of 2015
13 Reality / Business : the vision of LSA Mathias Link, International Affairs & SpaceResources.lu, LSA Space Minig Summit 28/09/
14 Reality / Business : 1 st business ice mining Ice Exploration life support Mining Tore Standford - NASA Propelant production + Refueling Satcom GEO Refueling Satellite - Spacenews
15 Reality / Business : today 0 Client A «resource» has value if it is used if there are technologies to extract & transform if it is available
16 Reality : summary Water, precious & rares metals, Quantity & quality unknown Technos not already qualified (developed) Energy type? Budget savings for space agencies Sharing financial risks Regulation laws evolutions are required Business $,,, Business model not already mature Seeking for first clients New El Dorado or SPECULATIVE BUBBLE? 16
17 Perspectives / challenges : a paradigm shift Space for Space Today, «Space for Earth» and we use terrestrial resources to access Space But preserving terrestrial resources are key challenges Tomorrow, «SRU for Space» and space resources can serve Space activities Energie, ressources, industrialisation Exploration of the Universe &/or sustainable settlement beyond terrestrial orbit We could not «import» all from Earth We will need «supply» along the way, to go far (deep space) Science, Technological breakthrough, Business (extraction, production, services) After tomorrow «SRU for Earth»?
18 Energie, Ressources, Industrialisation Animators Frédéric Masson, CNES DLA/FIL Jean-jacques Dordain CNES GERPA, foresight Members Ariane Group IFREMER THALES Air Liquide ORANO TOTAL BRGM NOVESPACE SAFRAN COMEX Espace RENAULT Indsutrie 4.0 Fondation Hulot RTE UBISOFT
19 Perspectives / Business : synergies with other sectors scenario 1: SRU Exploitation for self-sufficiency Mining SGS - France Energy EDF - France Space CNES SAFRAN MSL - NASA
20 Perspectives / Business : what clients? Billionaires Agencies ESA Satcom GEO operators ESA Angel Abbud-Madrid, Colorado School of Mining Space Minig Summit 28/09/2018
21 Perspectives / Business : after self-sufficiency scenario 2: SRU for Earth SRU technologies & business are mature and allow to make business with Earth even if the business model (today) is uncertain
22 Perspectives / Business : a disruptive scenario / SRU scenario 3: turning a «plague» into «resource» And if the business was elsewhere than on celestrial bodies? where are there tonnes of metals (almost) available and not that far? Resource = space debris What clients? Space Agencies &/or UNO &/or future Satcom constellation operators?
23 Perspectives / legal framework : evolutions to come COPOUS What use of«espace» for tomorrow? Loi sur les Opérations Spatiales (LOS) Towards New Space Operations? Cooperations Shared visions, technological partnerships &/or commercial Insurances New risks? A ETHICAL reflection to rise «How far should we go to conquer Space?»
24 For the possible futures of Space to become Space ibles
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What is InnovFin Equity? InnovFin Equity managed by EIF is part of InnovFin EU Finance for Innovators, an initiative launched by the European Commission and the EIB Group in the framework of Horizon 2020.