A Simple Explanation of Advantage Play Blackjack

Transcription

1 A Simple Explanation of Advantage Play Blackjack Spartan Blackjack Q: So counting cards in blackjack is a real thing? A: Yes, but it doesn t work quite the way the media portrays it. The common misconception is that an advantage player (AP) wins every time entering a casino, which is not the case. It is very possible (an inevitable if you play long enough) to have a losing streak that could last months before picking back up. Q: Okay, now I m confused but very intrigued. Can you tell me about how you develop your edge? A: I ll start with an analogy: Let s play two variations of Russian roulette with a six-shooter. Variation (A): Step 1: Place a bullet in one slot, spin the barrel, cock and shoot. Step 2: If there is no discharge, spin the barrel again, cock and shoot. Step 3: Repeat Step 2 until discharge. Variation (B): Step 1: Place a bullet in one slot, spin the barrel, cock and shoot. Step 2: If there is no discharge, do not spin the barrel again. Step 3: Cock and shoot until discharge. I m sure you can see the difference between the two variations. Variation (A) is easy to determine your statistical edge. You have a 1/6 chance of killing yourself every time you pull the trigger (you reset by spinning the barrel after every try). This is synonymous with roulette at the casino where every ball drop is an independent variable. In other words, what happened in the previous instance has no effect on the current event. Variation (B) is different in that it has memory. The first event, you have a 1/6 chance of shooting your brains out. You click...safe! Now, because you have the information of the previous event, your statistical edge changes to 1/5 for the next one. Every event is dependent on the previous. Let s say that you are able to get 5 shots without a discharge. I would bet all my net worth that you will blow a hole in your head in the next shot. Basically, I would start at the lowest bet on the first shot, and progressively increase bets after every misfire, knowing that I will eventually win all my money back and more in the event that it finally gets to a moment I am sure to

2 win. In many ways, this is Advantage Play Blackjack (APB). APB is dependent on two factors. 1) Playing by a specific set of rules or decisions to calculate your edge. Every decision (hit, stand, double down, split, surrender) is preordained by a computer to determine your win/loss expectation after a couple thousand hands. 2) Varying bets to bet big when you have a statistical edge over the casino and bet low when you do not. In fact, if you are playing perfect basic strategy (BS), you are not playing a game very much different from what AP s play. The table conditions constantly switch from the house s advantage to the player s advantage. However, regular players have no idea when they have the advantage and will bet the same way in either instance. When they are on a winning streak and have no idea why, they just win money and be happy. AP s know exactly when the cards will be coming in their favor. They wait patiently betting table minimum until the tables turn to the player s favor. Then they bet as much as they can afford without risk of ruin. As soon as the edge is back in the casino s favor, AP s will go back to betting table min. AP s have projection charts and data to make sure that the money won during the time big bets are made will more than cover the cost of the bets lost when betting during the losing edge. Q: Okay. I m starting to understand the big picture. Can you go into detail about what exactly you are counting to determine your edge? A: Yes. Let me clarify something. AP s do not count the value of every card that comes out on the table. If I playing at a table and have a hand of 14, I cannot tell you what the odds are of hitting a 7 to make 21. That is way too much computation inside the human brain and only Rain Man could do that. Instead, we opt for a less accurate but still reliable system: We count the ratio of high-cards versus low-cards. Let me explain: Blackjack is a game with some interesting rules. Players can do whatever they wish. They can be stupid and stand on 11 and hit on 20. Players also have the options to double down (double their bet for one card), split, and sometimes surrender. Dealers have much less freedom. If a player stands on 15 and the dealer has 16, the dealer

3 cannot stop there and be considered a win. They must hit that 16, and if they bust (go over 21), the player wins fair and square. Common misconception is that the objective of blackjack is to get as close to 21 as possible. This is untrue. The true objective to blackjack is to beat the dealer without busting. Typically a shoe of blackjack consists of 6 full decks of cards. The values of 10 s, jacks, queens, and kings all hold a value of 10, which amounts to 96 cards in a full shoe that amount to the value of ten. Can you see how ten-value cards benefit the player more than the dealer? Alright, so if you want to think negatively, then yes. There is equal chance that a dealer could end up getting a two-card 20 as you if the shoe has a higher ratio of tens. However, knowing that the shoe is hot (this means the shoe is stacked with a high ratio of high-cards towards the middle/end of the shoe), if you have a value of 9, 10, or 11; your odds of doubling down and winning are much higher. Also, if you have 12 and the dealer is showing a 2, if you know that there is a high ratio of high cards, you will stand. Then the dealer will show the ten underneath, and then hit another ten to bust. It happens quite often. In a nutshell, just understand that because a dealer MUST hit on any value under 17, more high cards will increase their chances of busting. On the other hand, if you have 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 values; you will most definitely stand in certain situations to not risk busting. Most likely, you will lose those hands anyways, but don t worry. You make most your money on the double-downs, splits, and natural blackjacks. On that note, Aces are another card that benefits the player more than the dealer. How, you ask? Beautifully, I say. Let s observe a coin flip scenario. You have odds of each option, so let s say that heads is a win and tails is lose. If you are betting $10 for every toss, then at heads, you win $10 and tails you lose $10. If a thousand tosses are made, you are not going to be winning/losing much money. This is a stupid game to play and only a sucker would bet money on this (Which is funny because most everyone plays worse odds at the casino). Let s play a different game. The odds are still in the coin toss. Heads is still a win and tails is still lose. You are still betting $10 for every toss. But now if you win, you will be paid 150% of your initial bet (so you will win $15). If you lose, you will only lose your $10. Is this an advantageous game to play? You bet your ass it is. After 1000 tosses, your expected value (EV) will be $2,500

4 profit. It s easy to calculate: Total events: Probability of winning: 50%. Therefore, it is probable that you will win 500 of the 1000 events and lose 500 of the remaining events. You expect to win the amount of (500 heads x $15 = $7,500). You expect to lose the remaining 500 (500 tails X -$10 = -$5,000). Result: $7,500 - $5,000 = +$2,500. Now think very carefully what the rules for paying a natural blackjack are. Is it the same? If the cards are stacked with a high-ratio of tens and aces, there is a high chance that either you or the dealer will receive a blackjack (The odds are it will go to you or the dealer). It is during these times that you will be betting as much money as you can afford on the table. Blackjack pays 3 to 2 (150%). But it gets even better, if the dealer is showing an ace, you have the opportunity to take insurance (which just means you place a side bet that the dealer has a blackjack. If yes, you will win or lose no money). So now, you win 150% on your blackjack wins and buffer your losses when the dealer has a blackjack (if he is showing an ace). If natural blackjacks did not pay 3 to 2, AP s would not be playing a winning game. So now that you know that Aces and tens benefit players more than the dealer, let s assess the math in one 6 deck shoe: 96 cards with the value of ten + 24 Aces = 120 high cards. There are 120 cards with the value of 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 in a shoe. These are considered low cards. If you are familiar with the hi-lo count system, this is the most popular style. There are 72 cares with the value 7, 8, 9. In a hi-lo system, they are considered neither to benefit nor harm players so they are considered neutral (in advanced systems, 7 can be considered as a low card. We will not be discussing advanced systems). This accounts for all the cards in the shoe (120 high low + 72 neutral). Now let s begin a shoe and begin the count. Every low card that comes out, we increase what is called the running count by 1 and every high card decreases the running count by 1. The first round: 10 low cards, 4 high cards, and 3 neutral come out.

5 The count is now +6. All that this means is that there are 6 more high cards left than low cards. Q: At what point are you considered to have the advantage? A: Ah, I was just getting to that. The house edge is considered to amount to +0.50% if you are playing perfect basic strategy. This is a small edge to any one person, but you have to consider that this encompasses all players in their casinos. Also, very few people even know perfect basic strategy and tend to increase their bets at a win (therefore amounting to their eventual demise). But I digress. All things being equal at the beginning of a shoe, an AP will sit down and play at a disadvantage of 0.50%. When the ratio of high cards becomes one high card more PER DECK, a player will increase their edge by 0.50%. Let me explain this: In the above example of the shoe, the running count is 6. Because the shoe just began, we can estimate that there are still 6 decks remaining. The running count for the entire shoe is 6, but the TRUE COUNT (or count per deck) is 1. Do you see how that is obtained? TRUE COUNT = RUNNING COUNT / (# of DECKS REMAINING) So now in the next round, the player and the house have an equal advantage. Let s pretend the same thing happened in round two and the running count gets adjusted to a total of / (5.5) = But we truncate to simplify the arithmetic so the true count is now 2 with 5.5 decks remaining. At this point, we will raise our bet in the next round because we have a 0.50% advantage over the house. It makes no difference if we win or lose this specific round. In an entirety of playing at a true count of 2, an AP will win more than lose. At higher true counts, we bet more, but all according to a certain percentage of our bankroll (the total amount of cash we are willing to invest in blackjack). Typically a max bet won t be more than 2% of the total bankroll, so that we can afford to have a mean losing streak without losing the bankroll. If a losing streak happens, then your max bet is adjusted to less to keep the risk minimal. An AP s betting spread is constantly adjusted depending how the bankroll grows to always maximize profits and minimize risk. A professional AP would never take any money from the bankroll for personal use until they have logged in a set amount of hours where taking money out would not decrease risk.

6 Q: I think I understand now. I just had a quick question, why is splitting tens associated with card counters? If you are playing perfect basic strategy and only adjusting your bets at higher true counts, when would AP s every split tens? A: That is a great question! One thing I did not mention in fear of over-complication is the Basic Strategy Deviations. I did mention it slightly though when I said that sometimes it would be beneficial for a player to stand on a 12 against a dealer s up-card 3. Basic Strategy dictates that you hit every 12 against a dealer s 3. So here is the example of a BS deviation: if the true count is +2, it is to your benefit to stand on a 12 against a dealer s 3. If the true running count is ever negative, you re actually supposed to hit your 12 against a dealer s 4. It s hilarious watching other people s reactions. You will not be the table favorite, I can tell you that much. Other deviation examples are: Any positive running count, you will stand on 16 against a ten. Any true count above 3, you will take insurance when the dealer shows an ace. And the moment you live for: Split tens against a dealer s 6 at a true count of 4. It is easy to understand why it is advantageous to split tens against a dealer s 6 when there are more high cards. The chances are great for two things: 1) You will get another ten and split it again, and 2) the dealer will have a total two-card value between 12 and 16 and pull a ten to bust. During these moments, you have the most money on the table and win the most. Splitting 10 s four times is one of the greatest feelings in the world when you have max bet out. Don t get me wrong, there will be times when the dealer shows a 5 underneath to make your heart sink, and then pull a ten for a twenty-one. But remember, we are in this for the long-haul, and you will win more times than lose in the end of your career. There are over 100 deviations to memorize on specific true counts, on top of memorizing basic strategy to you know what the deviation decisions are. Some games have rules that the dealers hit on all 17 s and other s where dealer s stand on soft 17 s (Ace and 6). There are two separate basic strategy charts AND deviation rules for both games. You have to be able to see a stack of cards and estimate

7 accurately (with a tolerance ± 13 cards) how many decks it is. You have to keep an accurate running count in your head as each hand plays out and divide that by the number of half-decks remaining to obtain your true count. You have to know much to bet by a predetermined strategy for each true count situation and play all deviations flawlessly. You have to act naturally while doing this, having conversation with the table. You cannot deviate from the strategy, acting as a computer would for every preordained decision. You cannot make mistakes. This is true Advantage Play Blackjack. Q: Wow. This certainly isn t for the faint-hearted. I have to admit, this seems almost impossible to pull off. Are there any tips you can give me? Is there a certain type of person that has the nutsack to pull this off? A: Here is a secret: It s really not as hard as it seems. Strong work ethic and determination are all that is needed to pull this off because what you end up doing is accessing your subconscious mind. Have you ever heard of the Four Stages of Learning? See below: Right now, you are in the Conscious Incompetence stage. You realize there is a concept of counting cards. Once you commit to the study and practice, you will be in the Conscious Competence stage, where if the world moved in a snail pace and you had complete concentration, you could pull it off. You will be stuck in this stage for around 200 hours. Then, one day, you will be counting a shoe, and someone will distract you. When you turn back to the cards, your subconscious provides you with the current running count. You have no idea how, but you are sure it is accurate. All decisions become reflex because of how many times you ve seen it. Start small. Don t overwhelm yourself. First, learn how to play with perfect basic strategy. Memorize the chart and commit the decisions in a real-time situation so you can play against a dealer and not hesitate on the decisions. When that is flawless, then learn the running count. When you can play and still keep the running count in your head, finally learn the deviations. Teach yourself 2-3 new ones every day and you will be a competent player in no time. Expect to put in hours of practice before you become comfortable playing in a casino environment. As for the type of person is capable of success in this? My answer is

8 that everyone is mechanically capable of learning Advantage Play Blackjack. The reason why not everyone in the world is doing this comes in many factors: Some people don t know a winning system exists. Or they do and are too lazy to research it. They may believe that it was possible to count cards in the past, but surveillance is too high-tech to pull it off today. They may believe it s too difficult and only Rain Man and MIT students can do (Media plays a big factor in promoting this). A lot of people actually get far enough to research counting systems and attempting to learn. Most people know the basics of counting cards due to the popularity of movies like 21(2008). However, they give up too fast when they are frustrated they can t keep the running count in their head. I can go on forever on excuses that people make to justify themselves. The type of person who can be successful: Has a history of strong work ethic and determination. Pushes to be the best at an obsessive, almost unnecessary level. Isn t persuaded by the general views of the world. Will verify facts for themselves. Has a certain type of desperation. Whether it is for money, an experience of a lifetime, or to prove something to themselves or someone else. Has emotional maturity. Will not be dissuaded by losing a large sum of money in the short term to win an enormous amount in the long term. Always looking at the big picture and trusting mathematics. Strives for an extraordinary life and willing to put in the work to make that a possibility. Q: I have one final question. If this is an issue for casinos, why haven t they made it impossible for AP s to count cards? A: There are a number of quick fixes that a casino can use to make it impossible to count cards. Some have even been implements such as the automatic shuffling machines. But here is the simple truth: Casinos have made billions from blackjack on the publicity that it is possible to beat the game. Keep in mind that very few people succeed in APB. What happens is that people watch a movie like 21, watch a YouTube video on card counting, and practice on the airplane on the way to Vegas. They tend to bet more than they would normally do and proceed to give the casino more profits. Keep this in mind, just

9 because you are counting cards won t mean that you will be kicked out. They will assess your play for a number of hours and determine whether you are a winning player. If you are making enough mistakes to give up your edge, they will continue to let you play. Facial recognition is not as advanced as the media portrays it and it is up to the casino personnel to recognize that you are a winning AP and kick you out. You have plenty of casinos to choose from and you will make millions before you are barred from every casino in the world. In general, people are stupid. Casinos make a lot of money banking on the fact that people are stupid. But people don t want to be told that they are stupid. If casino s subsequently changed the rules to make it impossible to have an edge, they publicly announce that there is absolutely no way to win in blackjack. It would be an outrage in the general public and profits would decline. People like knowing that it is possible to beat the system, even if they don t take advantage of it.