# The student will explain and evaluate the financial impact and consequences of gambling.

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1 What Are the Odds? Standard 12 The student will explain and evaluate the financial impact and consequences of gambling. Lesson Objectives Recognize gambling as a form of risk. Calculate the probabilities of winning in games of chance. Personal Financial Literacy Vocabulary Dependent event: The outcome of one event affects the outcome of another, changing the probability of the second event. Gambling: Taking risks with personal finances or personal assets. Independent event: The outcome of one event has no effect on the outcome of another; both events have the same probability. Predictability: Telling or forecasting about something in advance of its occurrence by means of special knowledge or inference. Probability: The chance or likelihood that something will happen. STUDENT GUIDE OSDE Revised

3 Calculating the Odds 3 When participating in any gambling activity, you and the sponsor are both playing the odds. The sponsor, whether the state or a casino, hopes it wins and you, of course, hope you win. Because gambling is a significant source of income for the sponsor, the odds will almost always favor the sponsor, not you. Games of chance slot machines, blackjack, poker, roulette wheels, lotteries, scratch tickets, and so forth are set up to ensure the sponsor wins. The odds favoring them is by design, and not an accident. Suppose you have a friend who likes to play the roulette wheel at the casino. If he spends day after day playing, he will consistently lose over time. Of course, he may also go home one night with a stash of cash because each time he plays the outcome is less predictable. While he may beat the odds when winning, he may also lose a bundle of money in the process. The casino set up the game that way to ensure it consistently makes a profit. Without making a profit, there is no incentive for the casino to remain open. Lotteries like Powerball or Pick 3 are much the same. Even though you may hear about someone winning a big amount, you do not hear how many people purchased tickets and lost money to make the big payout happen. So, why do people continue playing when they know the odds are against them? Well, they are just like you. When you make a decision to do something, you believe the potential benefits of doing it will be greater than the costs. Otherwise, you would not choose to do it. In other words, you think you can beat the odds. You will be the one in a million who wins the jackpot. The table below is from the Powerball Web site. It shows the odds of winning in the Powerball game. Notice the odds of winning the Grand Prize compared to the odds of winning only \$4. But also notice, that winning \$4 is not guaranteed. There is still a good chance you will not have a winning ticket. STUDENT GUIDE OSDE Revised

4 Match Prize Odds + Grand Prize \$1,000, \$50,000 \$100 + \$ ,201, ,688, , , , \$ \$ \$ \$ The overall odds of winning a prize are The odds presented here are based on a \$2 play (rounded to two decimal places). Powerball is a random game. It does not know who purchases a ticket or where they buy it. It only knows that a number was selected by someone, somewhere. The only way to improve your odds of winning is to buy more tickets, but the odds are still high and hitting the jackpot is still a question of fate. However, you may increase your odds of winning one of the smaller amounts because there are more small prize winners than large prize winners. Even so, there is no guarantee of having a winning ticket in the Powerball drawing. Betting on horses is a little different. Suppose you hear there is seven to one odds on a particular horse in a horse race. You think it sounds good, so you bet \$20 that the horse will win. Basically, you have agreed to pay the track \$20 if you lose, and it will pay you \$140 if you win. With 7:1 odds, you have about a 15 percent chance of winning (100 / 7 = 14.28). The odds of winning depend on how many horses are in the race. If there were only one horse, go for it! That would be one to one odds, or a sure thing. As more horses are added, the odds of winning change and it becomes more unlikely that you will have a winning bet. Unlike the Powerball, however, it is guaranteed that one of the horses will win the race. The Odds of Winning The odds of winning in most games of chance are pretty low, regardless of much fun people are having in those commercials. As a general rule, the higher the odds, the higher the potential payout. That rule is based on incentives: if the odds are high, the risk of playing is high. If you want people to take high risk, you need potentially high rewards. STUDENT GUIDE OSDE Revised

5 Probability looks at how likely it is for something to happen. For example, if you pull one card out 5 of a deck of cards, what is the probability you will draw an ace? The answer is 4 out of 52. There are 52 cards in a deck and 4 aces. Another way to put it: you have a 13 chance because 52/4 = 13. If you have a 13 chance of drawing an ace, then you have a 12/13 chance of NOT drawing an ace. The probability of drawing an ace is relatively low. If you decide to play a Pick 3 lottery game where you have to guess the exact three numbers, your probability of winning is You can figure this out by noting that the probability of getting the first number right is 1/10. The probability of getting all three right is then 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 = 1/1000. Independent Versus Dependent Events Gambling and games of chance rely on the concept of independent and dependent events. Flipping a coin is an example of an independent event. The probability of getting heads does not change, regardless of how many times you flip the coin. After all, there are only two sides to the coin. When the coin is flipped and the first seven flips are heads, the eighth flip still has the probability of 2 of being heads or being tails. Each coin flip is independent of the other, and the probability of each flip is the same, no matter how many times you flip it REMINDER The odds of winning in most games of chance are pretty low, regardless of much fun people are having in those commercials. As a general rule, the higher the odds, the higher the potential payout. Most card games are different. When playing Poker or Blackjack, each successive hand is dependent on the previous ones. For example, you have a 4 in 52 chance of getting an ace at the beginning of the game. If the dealer gives you an ace on the first card dealt, the next person has a 3 in 51 chance of getting an ace as the next card dealt because there are only four aces in one deck of cards. Once you get an ace, it is not available for you or the next person to get it again during the game. When playing Poker, the hand with the highest payout is a royal flush which consists of a 10, jack, queen, king, and ace in the same suit. It is the best hand is because you have the lowest probability of getting one. You can calculate your odds of getting a royal flush by following these steps: You need five spades, hearts, diamonds, or clubs. The probability of getting the first card you need is 5 in 52. To get the second card you need in the same suit, the probability is 4 in 51. Getting the third card is a probability is 3 in 50; the fourth card is 2 in 49, and the last card is 48. The probability of being dealt a royal flush is rather small. In fact, it is: STUDENT GUIDE OSDE Revised

7 Name: Class Period: 7 Risky Business Review 12.1 Answer the following questions and give the completed lesson to your teacher to review. 1. Gambling is best defined as a. playing a game with a guaranteed winner. b. taking risks with your money or assets in hopes of winning something. c. determining whether or not something will happen. d. an illegal activity. 2. Which of the following is not generally considered a game of chance? a. Bingo b. Buying a lottery ticket c. Chess d. The roulette wheel 3. Which of the following statements is true? a. Weather forecasters rely on probability. b. Games of skills have guaranteed outcomes. c. The stock market is a form of gambling. d. Most, if not all, casino games are set so that the casino wins more than the players. 4. Probability is best defined as a. how likely it is that something will happen. b. making choices based on past events. c. forecasting the future. d. taking a chance. 5. An example of an independent event is a. a game of blackjack. b. a game of poker. c. the lottery. d. flipping a coin. STUDENT GUIDE OSDE Revised

8 Name: Class Period: 8 Gambling on a Flip Activity 12.1 Directions: Complete the table below. You will need a coin with heads and tails for this activity. 1. You are testing your luck at a game of chance. In the first column of the chart below, determine if each flip of the coin will be a head or a tail before flipping your coin. Write H for head or T for tail in column 1. Coin Flip 1 Your Prediction (H or T) Column 1 Did flip match prediction? YES or NO Column for correct prediction Column for incorrect prediction Column STUDENT GUIDE OSDE Revised

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