IGFA BELMONT FORUM (BF)

Transcription

1 IGFA BELMONT FORUM (BF) National Centre for Sustainable Coastal Management (NCSCM), under a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the IGFA BELMONT FORUM (BF) has undertaken research study focusing on the resilience and coastal vulnerability of the Deltas. The theme of the research study is as follows; DELTAS: Catalyzing action towards sustainability of deltaic systems with an integrated modelling framework for risk assessment. Deltas are economic and environmental hotspots, food baskets for many nations and home to a large portion of the world population. They sustain rich, bio-diverse ecosystems and related services. Most deltas are also international and regional transportation hubs that support intense economic activity. Yet, deltas are deteriorating at an alarming rate due to climate impacts (e.g., sea level rise and flooding), human-induced catchment changes (e.g., water and sediment flow reduction) and local exploitation (e.g., sand, groundwater, and hydrocarbon extraction). The international science community recognizes the need to develop a solid knowledge base for protecting these vulnerable coastal systems and BF initiative leads the way by coordinating and enhancing innovative international work towards the development of a science-based framework for delta sustainability. The project will develop a versatile modelling framework that may be applied from local to national levels to evaluate the unique functioning, critical stressors and vulnerability of the world s deltas. The framework will ingest social, economic, physical and ecosystem data into an open-access repository and will allow planners to model and deliver optimized, viable solutions for their region. In areas for which detailed data are sparse, an infrastructure for critical data gathering will be developed and modelling and prediction tools will be customized. The framework will initially be applied to three case-studies for which local and regional partnerships are already in place, including the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Mekong and Amazon deltas. Importance of Deltas River deltas around the world are economic and environmental hot spots occupying approximately 1% of the Earth's land area but housing more than 500 million people, rich in biodiversity and high in economic productivity. Yet, deltaic systems are among the world's most delicate and vulnerable socio-ecological systems, residing at the boundary between land and water and subject to upstream human control, local resource exploration and climatic impacts (e.g., IPCC, 2007, Figure 1). As important areas for agriculture and fisheries production, deltas play a major role in national, regional and global resource chains. For example, as "rice bowls" to the world, deterioration of the mega deltas of Asia poses serious threats to food security for the more than half of the world's population that relies on rice as a staple food (Hoanh et al., 2010). These human dimensions and ecological implications of deteriorating or disappearing deltas cannot be overstated. There is an urgent need to rally the international community for a focused effort toward a holistic physical-socioeconomic understanding of deltas as vulnerable systems undergoing change. Such understanding is a basic requirement for their long-term management, protection, and restoration. Recognizing this need, the Belmont Forum has identified coastal vulnerability as a focused priority, with an overarching goal "to deliver knowledge needed for action to mitigate and adapt to detrimental environmental change and extreme hazardous events" (cf. ICSU, 2010).

2 Figure 1: Mega deltas around the world were identified in the 4th IPCC report as one of the most vulnerable environments threatened by climate and human-induced changes. RESEARCH PLAN OF DELTAS The overall goal of the BF-DELTAS project is to unify our scientific understanding of deltas as coupled with socio-ecological systems and to develop a science-based integrative modeling framework that can be used to assess delta vulnerability, guide sustainable management and policy decisions at both regional and local levels. The main premise of the proposed work is that although each delta is unique, integrative frameworks that capture the socio-ecological working of these systems can be developed and encapsulated in decision support tools which can be adopted locally, in collaboration with regional experts and stakeholders, for sustainable delta management. The specific objectives (and components) of the proposed research (see Figure 2) include the following: Objective 1: Advance sustainability science for deltas (Delta-SRES) by developing a theoretical framework for assessing delta vulnerability and the possibility for transitions to undesired biophysical or socio-economic states under various scenarios of change. Objective 2: Co-develop, in close collaboration between scientists and stakeholders, an open-access, science-based, integrative modeling framework called the Delta Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool (Delta-RADS), which can operate at a regional level and provide a quantitative basis for investigating and comparing scenarios and trade-offs for decision making.

3 Objective 3: Consolidate and make readily available relevant data on bio-physical, social, and economic parameters (Delta-DAT), which can be used by the community at large to assess critical parameters, compute vulnerability metrics, and provide input data to the Deltas-RADS modeling framework. Objective 4: Develop Global Delta Vulnerability Indices (Delta-GDVI) that capture the current and projected physical-social-economic status of deltas around the world ("delta vulnerability profiles"), which will serve to identify and support the critical needs and priorities for research, funding, and action. Objective 5: Work with regional teams and stakeholders to put the products of Objectives #1-4 into action (Delta-ACT) by demonstrating the implementation of the developed framework to three major deltas with diverse physical-social environments: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Mekong, and Amazon deltas. Figure 2.Key components of the BF-DELTAS project, whereby deltas are treated as fully coupled socioecological systems and scientist-stakeholder feedback is emphasized at all levels. The bidirectional arrows indicate the interconnectivity of tasks toward achieving the goal of the project. Research Activities The most important activities under the research study pertaining to the Ganga-Brahmaputra- Meghna Delta are as follows;

4 Precipitation (mm) Temperature ( o C) SRTM Topographic data: The SRTM data from the Gangetic delta has been collected and the elevation map is prepared. The digital elevation map (DEM) is to be validated at field with RTK GPS/Total station data sets, based on the topographic datasets, the vulnerable areas along the delta will be classified (Fig. 1). Demography and socio-economic: The census data on socio-economic and demographic variables for 3 decades e.g. for the year 1991, 2001, and 2011 is collected and compiled for the coastal villages of deltaic region from Farakka Barrage to downstream Hooghly estuary. The collected data is to be incorporated in the Geospatial data platform. Climatic variability: Climatic variability on temperature and precipitation for 100 years from 1900 to 2001 is collected and analysed to know the climate change effects in the 11 dist of Gangetic delta. Below is an example of the analysed data on atmospheric temperature and precipitation of the Kolkata district R 2 = 0.204, P = < Annual average Monthly average data (± Std. Dev.) Mapping ecosystem dynamics: The time series multilayer satellite imagery is being processed for the land use/land cover (LU/LC) map of the Gangetic delta. The mangrove decline, land loss due to erosion, coastline change, urban development, etc can be determined by analysing the time series LU/LC map of 30 years from 1990, 2003, and The LU/LC map for the year 2003 and 2013 is shown in Figure 2 and 3 respectively. Data assimilation on ecosystem dynamics: The bio-physical, ecological, geomorphology and climate data from the Gangetic delta region shall be compiled in an IT- enabled GIS modelling system.

5 Fig. 1: Three-Dimensional View of the Ganges Delta

6 Fig. 2: Year 2003: Land use and Land cover pattern of the Ganges Delta (Farakka Barrage to Bay of Bengal)

7 Fig. 3: Year 2013: Land use and Land cover pattern of the Ganges Delta (Farakka Barrage to Bay of Bengal)

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