Basic Foresight Principles Rafael Popper PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester

Transcription

1 Diálogo de Prospectiva Decanato de la Facultad de Administración UNIVALLE - ASCOLFA Basic Foresight Principles Rafael Popper rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester

2 Current Research Areas PREST's research can conveniently be grouped into five broad areas: Innovation Studies Evaluation Research Science and Technology Policy Foresight Practice and Research Environmental and other issues In practice, there is often considerable overlap between the lines of work, and there are also often cross-cutting themes, e.g. ICT, environmental issues, etc.

3 Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development and implementation of research and innovation policy. The main focus of activity has been at national level as governments have sought to: set priorities; build networks between science and industry; change the administrative culture & research systems and; encompass structured debates with wider participation leading to the creation of common visions. Bookentry_Main.lasso? id=3977

4 What is foresight? Broadly speaking Foresight is not about: forecasting by experts Foresight is more about: trandisciplinarity long term thinking engagement with decision-makers drawing upon wide networks of expertise creating new action networks extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decisionmaking R. Popper (2008)

5 Meta principles of foresight 1. Contextualised Foresight needs to be rooted in the context within which it is to be implemented be it national, regional, local, corporate, organisational; 2. Credible The robustness of the evidence and the reputation of those presenting and validating it should be such that results are treated as credible; 3. Diversed Foresight must keep an ear open to unpopular views and not rush to a consensus; relevant (and seemingly less relevant) stakeholders should be engaged wherever possible, either in the exercise itself or in pre- and postforesight activities; 4. Systematic A foresight exercise should develop and follow a systematic approach which can easily be replicated. Methods should as far as possible allow comparisons / benchmarking and yield reproducible results; 5. Far-sighted There is little point to foresight which does not include a creative element that is explicitly future-oriented and moves beyond mere zeitgeist; Source: Georghiou, Cassingena, Keenan, Miles and Popper (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight

6 Meta principles of foresight 6. Transparent The objectives of an exercise should be clear to all; the design of the process, the sources of information and the means used to analyse data should all be available to those expected to participate and make use of the results; 7. Embedded Foresight s impact endures where a culture for foresight is able to spread; 8. Engaged The commitment of those capable of acting upon the results should be secured in advance; 9. Efficient In its use of public (or private funds) foresight should be carried out with due economy and efficiency but be adequately resourced to be effective; 10. Adaptive Foresight should be adaptive, drawing upon lessons from previous and current activity to meet evolving demands. Source: Georghiou, Cassingena, Keenan, Miles and Popper (2008) The Handbook of Technology Foresight

7 07.pdf Mapping Sample EU27+ North America Asia Oceania Trans-Europe Latin America Africa Over 1600 cases Level 0 + Level 1 Level 2 + Level 3 R. Popper (2008)

8 frequency + levels + groupings + scale R. Popper (2008)

9 Global foresight practices (1/3) EU27+ (450 cases) EU27+ (515 cases) Government Research Business IGO Other sponsors General Public sponsors Government Agencies / Dep. Research Community Firms Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Other target audiences Intermediary organizations Trades Unions audiences Trans-Europe (61 cases) North America (108 cases) Trans-Europe (57 cases) North America (101 cases) Government Research Business IGO Other sponsors General Public Government Research Business IGO Other sponsors General Public Latin America (24 cases) Asia (47 cases) Government The main sponsor of Government foresight is the Research Research Business Government Business IGO IGO Other sponsors Other sponsors General Public General Public Africa (9 cases) Oceania (13 cases) Government Government Research Research Business Business IGO IGO Other sponsors Other sponsors General Public General Public Government Agencies / Dep. Government Agencies / Dep. Research Community Research Community Firms Firms Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Other target audiences Other target audiences Intermediary organizations Intermediary organizations Trades Unions Trades Unions The main users of foresight are the Latin America (24 cases) Asia (60 cases) Government Agencies / Dep. Government Agencies / Dep. Research Gov. Community depts/agencies Research Community Firms Firms Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Other target audiences Other target audiences Intermediary organizations Intermediary organizations Research Community Trades Unions Trades Unions Africa (10 cases) Government Agencies / Dep. Research Community Firms Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Other target audiences Intermediary organizations Trades Unions Firms Oceania (13 cases) Government Agencies / Dep. Research Community Firms Trade Bodies / Industrial Fed. Other target audiences Intermediary organizations Trades Unions Source: Popper et al (2007) Source: Popper et al (2007)

10 Global foresight practices (2/3) EU27+ (423 cases) EU27+ (517 cases) % 10% 9% 7% 26% 23% 23% ~73% time horizon National Sub-national Transborder Supra national Europe territorial scope 0% 50% Trans-Europe (55 cases) North America (89 cases) Trans-Europe (62 cases) North America (108 cases) % 5% 11% % 4% 10% National Sub-national National Sub-national % 25% 29% 24% % % ~79% % ~74% % Transborder Supra national Europe Transborder Supra national Europe 0% 50% 0% 50% Latin America (21 cases) Asia (44 cases) The 0% most common time horizons 2% are % % ,15,20 0% years 9% % % % % % ~90% % ~74% % % 0% 50% 0% 50% Africa (10 cases) Oceania (11 cases) Latin America (24 cases) Asia (65 cases) The most common territorial scopes are National Sub-national Sub-national Transborder National Transborder Supra national Supra national Europe Europe Sub-national Africa (11 cases) Oceania (15 cases) % 0% 10% % 0% 9% National Sub-national National Sub-national % % Transborder Transborder % 20% 60% ~80% % 27% 27% ~72% Supra national Europe Supra national Europe 0% 50% 0% 50% Source: Popper et al (2007) Source: Popper et al (2007)

11 Common Objectives 9 cases

12 Foresight Cases (1/9) fostering STI cooperation and networking This is one of the most common general objectives of foresight This implies: the creation of a common space for open thinking, the development of knowledge platforms and research infrastructures the engagement of key stakeholders at various levels (international, national, subnational) Challenges formal agreements about the use and sharing of intellectual property and technologies cooperation protocols linked to existing regulatory frameworks or policy instruments bringing together multi-sectoral, multi-disciplinary and (sometimes) multi-national expertise to discuss and share views about STI futures in general. This calls for better understanding and continuous monitoring of key drivers of STI cooperation Common drivers of cooperation Problem-driven (global warming, terrorism, poverty, natural disasters, energy needs, etc.) Aspirational drivers (sustainable development, social cohesion, regional integration, etc.) Example SCOPE 2015: Scenarios for RTD cooperation with Europe - R. Popper (2008)

13 Foresight Cases (2/9) orienting policy formulation and decisions Orientation combines the notions of: providing methodological support and recommending policy directions. Such orientation often requires the development of specific activities, such as: new perspectives into existing mechanisms for agenda-setting and prioritisation; new consensus-based frameworks to explore policy options; and new guidelines to assist government and other actors in policy design and decision-making. Two common challenges are: the development of contextualised recommendations; and the provision of a sound basis to assess whether proposed recommendations are sufficiently coherent and compatible with the long-term objectives of the sponsors. Example Contribution of the Universities to the Knowledge Capital: A Scenario for Success in R. Popper (2008)

14 Foresight Cases (3/9) recognising key barriers & drivers of STI The word recognising is used to stress the importance of: acknowledging and identifying both current and potential barriers to, and drivers of STI Barriers are limitations and constraints hindering the development of a sector, research area, etc. These are normally classified into: economic barriers (e.g. lack of funding), political barriers (e.g. inappropriate regulatory framework, lack of political will), technological barriers (e.g. limited research infrastructures, access to databases/databanks, etc.) social barriers (e.g. undeveloped collaborative culture, lack of human capabilities), ethical barriers (e.g. inappropriate means of production, unjust business models), and so on. Drivers are events, trends, technologies, and issues shaping the development of a society, organisation, industry, research area, etc. Example French Key Technologies - Key Tech.in the Vehicle Industry - R. Popper (2008)

15 Foresight Cases (4/9) encouraging strategic and futures thinking This is can be achieved with: the identification of new paradigms; the evaluation of existing medium-to-long-term visions, the assessment of desired, possible and alternative scenarios; the exploration of new approaches for solving and sharing problems; the identification of future applications and implications of new technologies; the exploration of future development trends in sectors (e.g. energy) and subsectors; the identification of opportunities, threats and challenges for the future; the connection of research to business and government goals; the assessment of impacts of recommendations and decisions derived from foresight; the exploration of promising preconditions (e.g. resources, legal frameworks, capabilities) for sustainable development and economic growth; the creation of a foresight culture; etc. The most important contribution of strategic and futures thinking to foresight is the timely identification of issues that should alert and support decision-making. Example FISTERA: Foresight on Information Society Technologies in the European Research Area - R. Popper (2008)

16 Foresight Cases (5/9) supporting STI strategy- and priority-setting This requires the combination of many challenging activities, for example: the definition of public and private RTD agendas; the evaluation of RTD policies and priorities of innovation and research portfolios of public funding agencies; the identification of future technological needs, risks and opportunities; the identification of desirable and undesirable impacts of technologies (e.g. biotechnology); the analysis of qualitative and quantitative data about past and present STI and socio-economic developments; the promotion of thorough discussions about STI paradigm changes; and the creation of policy frameworks guiding the development of new/critical technologies. This requires: an assessment of the national or regional position in the studied sector, the creation of new networks between industry, academia and government capable of developing a shared strategic vision of the sector and the political insight to propose adequate changes to existing STI strategies and priorities of government agencies, academic institutions or firms. It should be highlighted that one of the most significant challenges of priority-setting in foresight is to ask stakeholders to set their priorities on the basis of experts assumptions about the future instead of their existing views on current conditions and realities. Example National Foresight Programmes, such as the UK Programme- R. Popper (2008)

17 Foresight Cases (6/9) identifying research/investment opportunities This often involves: the mapping of promising technologies, successful research and business models, and infrastructure needs; the identification of promising markets and business directions; the translation of key STI barriers and drivers into opportunities for public and private industries; the adaptation of innovative industrial policies and strategies into the national and regional contexts; the exploration of potential impacts of the growth or reduction of production capacity, consumers demand or market share; the exploration and evaluation of entrepreneurship trends; the benchmarking of future-oriented action plans; and so on. Some exercises focus on SMEs and are aimed at: the identification of potential future demands of new products and services; the identification of medium-to-long-term prospects (5-10 years) for economic growth and competitiveness; the identification of effective ways of attracting bright and highly-skilled people to make careers in a particular industries; the identification of (new) industry products and services capable of creating new ways of reducing societal problems (e.g. crime solving and crime prevention); and the improvement of the capability to anticipate and prepare for new science risks and opportunities. Example UK Cognitive Systems - R. Popper (2008)

18 Foresight Cases (7/9) generating visions & images of the future This objective is implicit in most exercises. It is closely linked to the objective of encouraging strategic and futures thinking, both require the evaluation of existing visions and the assessment of desired, possible and alternative scenarios. However, the most important aspect of this objective is the actual creation of shared visions and images, enabling the development of new scenarios with their related strategies and recommendations. While many studies develop visions; they are less often successful in the development of shared visions. This is mainly due to, on the one hand, poorly designed participatory processes and, on the other, unsuccessful communication and dissemination strategies. The creation of shared visions requires: an open space for discussion; a thorough and careful analysis of opinions and contributions; a dynamic and interactive feedback mechanism; a clear list of convergent and divergent issues; and an open consultation process aimed at building consensus on shared visions. Example FUTMAN: the future of manufacturing in Europe on the time horizon R. Popper (2008)

19 Foresight Cases (8/9) helping to cope with Grand Challenges A shared feature across many foresight exercises is the presence of ambitious objectives or Grand Challenges. These Grand Challenges are often politically or socially driven but with a strong economic and technological orientation. Foresight was seen instrumental for achieving engagement of major stakeholders such aspirational objectives. Challenges of including Grand Challenges in a foresight exercise: the difficulty to invest considerable amount of time and resources in (1) undertaking intensive lobbying of key stakeholders, and (2) securing their political commitment. Examples of EU level Grand Challenges include: the EU Lisbon Objectives, the European Research Area (ERA) and, more abstractly, the European Knowledge Society. At the trans-national level: the UN Millennium Goals, climate change, natural disasters, terrorism, poverty, etc. As for the national and sub-national levels: social equity, sustainable development, regional integration, social cohesion, and sustained economic growth. Example EUFORIA: Knowledge Society Foresight - R. Popper (2008)

20 Foresight Cases (9/9) triggering actions & promoting public debate Of course foresight it meant to inform decisions. But ensuring that foresight triggers action can also be an objective built into exercises. For example, a panel in a foresight project might develop demonstrator proposals, and the panel members engage in recruitment of support for such projects during the life of the foresight exercise. Participants often: become effective carriers of the results, and sometimes play roles in implementing (or monitoring the implementation of) the conclusions in their own organisations. Often seek to influence a wider constituency, for example by disseminating its results and provoking debate on their implications. Sometimes public debate on particular results has influenced decisions about RTD investments. Example FinnSight Science and Technology in Finland in the 2010s - R. Popper (2008)

21 National Foresight Programmes 1. The UK First Technology Foresight Programme ( ) 2. The Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme 3. The Irish Technology Foresight Programme 4. The Turkish Technology Foresight Programme 5. The Colombian Technology Foresight Programme Regional TF Programmes 6. UNIDO TF Programme for Latin American and the Caribbean 7. UNIDO TF Programme for Central and Eastern European and Newly Independent States

22 European Commission Foresight Projects 8. FP7 Scenarios for the Seventh Framework Programme of the EC 9. FISTERA: Foresight on IST in the European Research Area 10. EUROFORE: Pilot Project for Mapping European Foresight 11. FUTMAN: Future of manufacturing industry in Europe 12. FORLEARN: Building Foresight Capabilities in Europe 13. INFOMED: Information Society in the Mediterranean 14. EFORESEE: Foresight in the Mediterranean Regions 15. FORETECH: Foresight in Bulgaria and Romania 16. EFA: Scoping the European Foresight Academy 17. SCOPE 2015: Scenarios for Research and Technology Development Cooperation with Europe Latin America: Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela Sub-Saharan Africa: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria Maghreb and Mashreq: Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia Commonwealth of Independent States: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine

23 Other Foresight-related related Projects 18. Technology Choice 19. B2B: Business to Business 20. Technology Assessment Training 21. The Socio-economic Environment of Royal Mail 22. Advanced Communications Technologies and Employment (ADEMPLOY) 23. Societal Needs & European RTD Policy 24. Technological Paradigms and Transition Paths: the Case of Energy Technologies 25. Developing and Awareness Workshop Methodology on Sustainable Urban Living 26. ROST: Romanian Research and Technology Development Strategy E-SKILLS Delphi Projects 28. The UK Technology Foresight Programme 29. The European Knowledge Society 30. The European Information Society Technologies 31. Positioning Russia in the International S&T Arena 32. The Colombian Biotechnology Sector 2015

24 Evaluation of Foresight Programmes 33. The UK TF Programme The UK TF Programme 2002-present 35. The German FUTUR Programme 36. The Hungarian TF Programme 37. The Colombian TF Programme Foresight Networks 38. Regional Foresight Network (FOREN) 39. EFMN: European Foresight Monitoring Network 40. PRIME Network 41. SELF-RULE Network Foresight Training 42. Foresight Courses for Organisers, Sponsors & Practitioners (1999) 43. Foresight Courses for UNIDO TF Programme (since 1999) 44. Foresight Modules for PhD, MSc and MPhil researchers 45. Executive Education (2-3 days intensive courses on demand)

25 Foresight should be carefully planned (Popper, 2008) Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Rationales Sponsor(s) Objectives Orientation Resources - Core team * -Time -Money - Infrastructure - Cultural - Political Approaches Time horizon Methodology Workplan - Activities -Tasks - Deliverables Scope - Context - Coverage The Foresight Diamond Project team * - skills Partners Sub-contractors Steering Group Experts - Thematic - Sectoral -Regional - National - International Champions - Thematic - International Panels Methodologist Facilitators Rapporteurs Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codified New knowledge is generated (e.g. elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.) KNOWLEDGE Advising -Strategies - Policy Options - Recommendations - Transforming -Networking - Policy-making - Decision-making - Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning R. Popper (2008) Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues Learning - Process - Products Evaluation -Impacts - Efficiency - Appropriateness Dissemination - Shared Visions - Foresight Culture - Step 5: evaluating

26 Guides & Handbooks The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008) Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007) Global Foresight Outlook (2007) The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages)

27 Rafael Popper Gracias!