Arctic Marine Transport and Space

Transcription

1 Arctic Marine Transport and Space Space & the Arctic Workshop World Trade Centre, Stockholm ~ 20 October 2009 Lawson W. Brigham, PhD Professor, University of Alaska Fairbanks Chair, Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment of the Arctic Council

2 Topics ~ Space & the Arctic Workshop Presentation: Changing Arctic Marine Access Current Arctic Marine Use Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report Monitoring Requirements

3 15 September September 2009 Source: University of Illinois The Cryosphere Today

4 11 September 2007

5 1 January April March 2007 Winter & Spring Months June 2007

6 16 September September September September September September 2007 Challenges & Risks ~ Year-to-Year Sea Ice Variability in Vilkitski Strait

7 Arctic Marine Geography CHALLENGES & RISKS Northwest Passage Draft Sea Ice Choke Point Central Arctic Ocean Route (2100 nm) Sea Ice Draft Northern Sea Route Intra-Arctic Route Cold Climate Ice-Free Ops MULTIPLE ROUTES & MODES

8 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals World s Largest Zinc Mine Zinc & Coal World s Largest Nickel & Palladium Mine High Grade Iron Ore?? Nickel & Copper

9 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore??

10 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Key Fisheries Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore??

11 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Key Fisheries Oil & Gas Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore??

12 Варандейский нефтяной отгрузочный терминал Объем транспортировки 12 млн.т сырой нефти в год Навигационный период 365 дней Порт назначения порты Европы и Северной Америки Танкер усиленного ледового класса дедвейтом ,6 тонн Толщина льда 1,25 1, 1,8 м. Средняя продолжительность ледового периода 213 дней. 65,5 м 17,5 м 12

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14 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Key Fisheries Oil & Gas Summer Sealift Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore??

15 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Key Fisheries Oil & Gas Summer Sealift Exploration/Science Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore??

16 Arctic Council ~ Intergovernmental Forum AMSA Lead Countries for PAME ~ Canada, Finland & USA AMSA Focus ~ Marine Safety & Marine Environmental Protection 13 Major Workshops & 14 Town Hall Meetings Key Challenge ~ Many Non-Arctic Stakeholders

17 Arctic Ministers Approval 29 April 2009 ~ Negotiated Text Table of Contents Executive Summary with Recommendations Arctic Marine Geography Climate & Sea Ice History Governance Current Use/Database Scenarios to 2020 & 2050 Human Dimensions Environmental Impacts Infrastructure

18 AMSA Scenarios: Plausible Futures for Arctic Navigation to 2050 ~ Complexity ~

19 AMSA Key Uncertainties for Future Arctic Marine Transportation Stable legal climate Radical change in global trade dynamics Climate change is more disruptive sooner Safety of other routes Socio-economic impact of global weather changes Oil prices (55-60 to USD?) Major Arctic shipping disasters*** Limited windows of operation (economics) Rapid climate change Maritime insurance industry China, Japan & Korea become Arctic maritime nations Transit fees Conflict between indigenous & commercial use Arctic maritime enforcement Escalation of Arctic maritime disputes Shift to nuclear energy New resource discovery World trade patterns Catastrophic loss of Suez or Panama Canals Global agreements on construction rules and standards

20 Stricken cruise ship off Antarctic evacuated MSNBC- 11/23/07 M/V Explorer

21 Arctic Race High demand and unstable governance set the stage for an economic rush for Arctic wealth and resources. unstable & ad-hoc Polar Lows Low demand and unstable governance bring a murky and under-developed future for the Arctic. AMSA/GBN Scenarios Workshops ~ April & July 2007 The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050 Scenarios on the Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050 more demand RESOURCES & TRADE GOVERNANCE Arctic Saga High demand and stable governance lead to a healthy rate of development, includes concern for preservation of Arctic ecosystems & cultures. stable & rules-based Polar Preserve Low demand & stable governance slow development in the region while introducing an extensive eco-preserve with stringent no-shipping zones. less demand

22 Bering Strait Region ~ Choke Point for the Arctic Ocean 22 April 2002

23 Wild Card Issue 1 ~ Multiple Ocean Use Management & Enforcement Bowhead Whale Migrations & Arctic Marine Operations Summer Spring Fall Arctic Ocean Choke Point Winter Possible Arctic Shipping Routes

24 Today s Maritime Arctic (200 NM Exclusive Economic Zone) Hypothetical - Future Maritime Arctic (After UNCLOS Article 76) (Macnab 2000) (Macnab 2000) The ILULISSAT Declaration Conference of 5 Coastal States Bordering on the Arctic Ocean (Canada, Denmark & Greenland, Norway, Russia, USA) May 2008 ~ Ilulissat, Greenland LOS/UNCLOS Provides Solid Foundation We therefore see no need to develop a new comprehensive international legal regime to govern the Arctic Ocean. Wild Card Issue 3 ~ Continuing Challenge

25 Wild Card Issue 2 ~ Arctic Ship Emissions Unintended Consequences & Uncertain Regulation New northern passages could significantly boost levels of low-lying ozone as ship exhausts pump pollutants into the pristine environment. Emissions of nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide from ships could triple ozone levels, making them comparable to those in industrialized regions today. New Scientist 22 July 2006

26 U.S. Geological Survey Report ~ July 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle 13% Undiscovered Oil 30% Undiscovered Natural Gas 20% Undiscovered Natural Gas Liquids Wild Card Issue 3A ~ New Resource Discoveries

27 Probability of Presence of Undiscovered Oil and/or Gas Fields USGS (2008) Coastal Seas Wild Card Issue 3B~ New Resource Discoveries

28 Wild Card Issue 4 ~ New Technology Aker Arctic Technology

29 Future Convoy Requirements? Icebreaking (Double Acting) Container Ship Norilskiy Nickel in the Kara Sea March 2006

30 Future Arctic Marine Transport Modes?

31 Future Arctic Marine Transport Modes? Churchhill to Murmansk Route?

32 Future Arctic Marine Transport Modes? Churchhill to Murmansk Route?

33 Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety Protecting Arctic People and the Environment Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure AMSA RECOMMENDATIONS ~ THEMES

34 Arctic State Linkages IMO Measures Uniformity of Governance Passenger Ships SAR Agreement Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety Protecting Arctic People and the Environment Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure AMSA RECOMMENDATIONS ~ THEMES

35 Arctic State Linkages IMO Measures Uniformity of Governance Passenger Ships SAR Agreement Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety Indigenous Use Community Engagement Invasive Species Special Marine Areas Oil Spill Prevention Marine Mammal Impacts Air Emissions Protecting Arctic People and the Environment Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure AMSA RECOMMENDATIONS ~ THEMES

36 Arctic State Linkages IMO Measures Uniformity of Governance Passenger Ships SAR Agreement Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety Infrastructure Deficit Arctic Marine Traffic System Environmental Response Capacity Hydrographic, Met & Ocean Data Indigenous Use Community Engagement Invasive Species Special Marine Areas Oil Spill Prevention Marine Mammal Impacts Air Emissions Protecting Arctic People and the Environment Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure AMSA RECOMMENDATIONS ~ THEMES

37 AMSA 2009: Baseline Assessment Arctic Council Policy Document ~ Negotiated Text Approved 29 April 2009 ~ Strategic Guide

38 AMSA Recommendation from the Arctic States ~ IIIB. Arctic Marine Traffic System ~ Comprehensive system to improve monitoring & tracking ~ Near, real-time data shared among the Arctic States ~ Vessel ID, tracks, data fusion & analyses, detection of any anomalies

39 Arctic Space Assets Key to: Monitoring the Physical Environment ~ Improve Ice Thickness Measurements Enhanced Coverage for Arctic Sea Ice Charting ~ Route Optimization & Safety Continued Record of Sea Ice Retreat ~ Lower Resolution, Circumpolar Coverage Monitoring & Tracking Vessels ~ Enforcement & Vessel Management Enhanced SAR & Environmental Response Improved Marine Communications in the Central Arctic Ocean Mapping & Assessments of Changing Marine Use ~ Multiple Use Management / Conflict Avoidance