Risk Management in Ice Covered Waters

Transcription

1 Risk Management in Ice Covered Waters Rob Hindley, Global Principal Specialist Arctic Technology Presentation for SPICES Workshop, 1 March 2017 Working together for a safer world

2 Overview of Content What do we mean by risk management (in ice covered waters)? Polar Code Polar Code Operational Limitations POLARIS

3 Risk Management in ice covered waters Identify the risks: ice conditions likelihood of occurrence... Understand the consequences: capabilities of the ship (ice class) support available (SAR etc.)... Design basis selection Seasonal Voyage planning Routing Tactical navigation Information on ice conditions is vital for supporting decisions on matching ship s capability to anticipated and actual operating conditions

4 Levels of risk management for operations Level 1: Design basis selection: Historic ice atlases / ice charts Field survey Existing ship experience Level 2: Seasonal voyage planning: Historic ice atlases / ice charts Season forecasting Level 3: Routing: Recent ice charts Satellite imagery Helicopter Level 4: Tactical: Eye ball Ice Radar Drones Historically regulated Historically not regulated

5 the Polar Code changes this: What is the Polar Code? Set of additions to SOLAS and MARPOL to reflect the hazards of operating safely in a Polar environment and the sensitivity of the environment itself Main additional hazards: low temperature; sea ice; remoteness; high latitude The Code is implemented through amendments to both SOLAS and MARPOL conventions New Chapter XIV in SOLAS Additions to each applicable MARPOL Annex

6 Polar Code applicability Part IA: Any ship operating in polar waters that carries SOLAS certificates Applicable to new ships keel laid after 1 st January 2017 AND existing ships (existing ships are exempt from structural requirements) from first Intermediate/renewal SOLAS survey after 1 st January 2018 Part II: All ships and offshore assets Applicable from 1 st January 2017 Polar Code applicable area: For Antarctic operation South of 60 degrees South For Arctic more complex definition see chart principally follows the maximum sea ice extent

7 Polar Code Chapter headings Part IA Ch 1 General Ch 2 Polar Water Operational Manual (PWOM) Ch 3 Ship Structure Ch 4 Subdivision and Stability Ch 5 Watertight and Weathertight Integrity Ch 6 Machinery Installations Ch 7 Fire Safety / Protection Ch 8 Lifesaving Appliances and Arrangements Ch 9 Safety of Navigation Ch 10 Communication Ch 11 Voyage Planning Ch 12 Manning and Training Part IIA Ch 1 Prevention of Pollution by Oil Ch 2 Control of Pollution by Noxious Liquid Substances in Bulk Ch 3 Prevention of Pollution by Harmful Substances Carried by Sea in Packaged Form Ch 4 Prevention of Pollution by Sewage from Ships Ch 5 Prevention of Pollution by Garbage from Ships

8 What are Operational Limitations? The owner/operator selects the ice class; the design temperature; the working latitude of the equipment; and the Expected Time to Rescue based on the operating It is the owner/operator s responsibility to define the limitations Assumptions on limitations should be validated during the Operational Assessment Operational Limitations are included on the Polar Ship Certificate Examples of principal limitations: Ice Conditions limited by Ice Class Temperature limited by the PST Latitude limited by provision of functioning communication and navigation equipment

9 Operational limitations what do they look like?

10 Why is POLARIS needed? Ice class rules themselves do not give a detailed description of the limiting ice conditions that can be use in practice: Ice class rules usually include One single ice type descriptor An assumed or nominal level ice thickness 100% of ice coverage of one ice type is very rare in practice?

11 Ice condition limitations referenced in the Polar Code The Polar Code requires operational limitations to be set for ice conditions These limitations are intended to be included on the Polar Ship Certificate: Where applicable, the certificate shall reference a methodology to assess operational capabilities and limitations in ice to the satisfaction of the Administration, taking into account the guidelines developed by the Organization. Guidelines developed by the Organization are MSC.1/Circ.1519 Guidance on Methodologies for Assessing Operational Capabilities and Limitations in Ice Methodology included in appendix to circular is POLARIS

12 Guidance on Methodologies for Assessing Operational Capabilities and Limitations in Ice

13 What is POLARIS? POLARIS stands for: Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System INPUT ASSESSMENT OF RISK DECISION TO OPERATE POLARIS terminology Actual ice conditions Don t operate Operation subject to special consideration Ice class of ship POLARIS More Cautious Operation Elevated operational risk Icebreaker escort or independent Operate Normal Level of Risk POLARIS is a decision support system (methodology) that can be used for voyage planning and on the ship s bridge. It uses the ship s actual ice class and the actual ice conditions encountered to determine a risk index outcome effectively a way of assigning a level of risk to ice operations for ships with certain ice classes

14 POLARIS inputs and outputs: ICE REGIME (local ice conditions) 6 Ice types in ice regime OR Image courtesy SCF ICE FREE NEW ICE GREY ICE GREY WHITE THIN FIRST ICE YEAR 1ST STAGE RISK INDEX VALUES (RIVs) for each Ice Type THIN FIRST YEAR 2ND STAGE MEDIUM MEDIUM FIRST YEAR FIRST YEAR 2ND STAGE THICK FIRST SECOND YEAR YEAR MULTI YEAR HEAVY MULTI YEAR PC PC PC PC PC PC PC IAS IA IB IC No Ice Class POLARIS RISK INDEX CALCULATION OF RISK INDEX OUTCOME (RIO) DECISION TO OPERATE SHIP S ICE CLASS

15 What is POLARIS Components: Risk Index Values (RIVs) Risk Index Values (RIVs) Are a graded indication of the risk a certain ice type has to a ship with a certain level of ice strengthening (ice class) IACS Polar Classes and Finnish Swedish Ice Classes are used other ships can have their Risk Index Values assigned based on an evaluation of the ships actual ice strengthening (equivalent level of safety) Increasing ice class ICE FREE NEW ICE GREY ICE GREY WHITE ICE Increasing ice thickness (severity) RISK INDEX VALUES (RIVs) for each Ice Type THIN FIRST YEAR 1ST STAGE THIN FIRST YEAR 2ND STAGE MEDIUM FIRST YEAR MEDIUM FIRST YEAR 2ND STAGE THICK FIRST YEAR SECOND YEAR MULTI YEAR HEAVY MULTI YEAR PC PC PC PC PC PC PC IAS IA IB IC No Ice Class

16 What is POLARIS Components: Risk Index Outcome RIO = Risk Index Outcome = Sum of (Partial Ice concentrations x Risk Values) RIO = (C 1 xriv 1 )+(C 2 xriv 2 )+(C 3 xriv 3 )+(C 4 xriv 4 ) C 1 C 4 - concentrations of ice types within ice regime (maximum of four from Egg Code) Note Ice Free also counts in the RIV: total sum of partial concentrations should always = 10. e.g. If total ice concentration is 6 tenths, 4 tenths is considered ice free. RIV 1 RIV 4 corresponding risk index values for the ship s ice class

17 Ice Regime An ice regime is a description of an area with a relatively consistent distribution of any mix of ice types including open water Partial Ice concentrations (C) of the various ice types in an ice regime are determined: from the EGG CODE on the ice chart; or by the operator on the bridge evaluating (viewing) the ice WMO EGG CODE Total Concentration Partial Concentrations Ice type for each concentration 40% Thick first year ice 10% Second year ice 40% Ice Free 10% Multi year ice

18 How POLARIS works Prevailing (or design) ice conditions are identified If you are determining your limitations (your ice class) these will be essentially the limiting ice conditions Ice Class is selected Risk Index Values for each ice type present in the ice regime are identified for the selected ice class RIO is calculated RIO is evaluated if the RIO is too negative consider: Upgrading ice class Restricting your operating season

19 Example: In one Slide, Ice Class PC7 RIV s assigned for ice class PC7: ICE FREE NEW ICE GREY ICE GREY WHITE ICE RISK INDEX VALUES (RIVs) for each Ice Type THIN THIN MEDIU MEDIU FIRST FIRST M FIRST M FIRST YEAR 1ST STAGE YEAR 2ND STAGE YEAR YEAR 2ND STAGE THICK FIRST YEAR SECOND YEAR MULTI YEAR HEAVY MULTI YEAR PC RIO = (4x3) + (4x-2) +(1x-3)+(1x-3) 40% ice free + 40% thick first Yr+10% Second Yr+10% Multi Yr RIO= -2 ICE REGIME % Thick first year ice 10% Second year ice 10% Multi year ice 40% Ice Free Outcome: Operation has elevated operational risk

20 Outstanding issues with POLARIS Treatment of glacial ice: limited guidance: additional caution, undefined - safe stand-off distance. Icebreaker escort and the definition of brash ice AIRSS includes guidance on how to evaluate the track of an icebreaker when evaluating the ice regime, allowing brash ice channels with 2m ice pieces to be considered as ice free Similar approach was proposed for POLARIS but WG could not agree on a brash ice definition(this was based on a misunderstanding in terms of the risks presented by brash ice) Currently there is no guidance in the final version of POLARIS on how to interpret a brash ice channel

21 Areas for development for POLARIS Ice data input interpretation Inputs for glacial ice regimes Inputs for ice regimes in an icebreaker channel Mitigations measures for elevated level of risk and operations subject to special consideration Safe speeds for specific ship cases Other operational measures to refine Refinement of RIVs Definitions, use and accuracy of decayed ice correction Further interaction with WMO / ICWG on definitions

22 Industry participation in calibration and feedback in POLARIS Interim Guidelines, to be revised every 4 years Forums for feedback IMO? IACS? Industry forums (IAATO / OCIMF etc.)? Arctic Council Best Practice Information Forum Potential forum to bring industry together under the Arctic Council Terms of reference and scope of the forum are being developed PAME has requested that firm proposal is submitted for next meeting in September this year

23 - resources and templates available online Interactive tool kit online Operating Envelope template Operational Assessment template Guidance on using POLARIS and setting Operational Limitations Guidance on Part II preparation for 2017

24 Summary Polar Code entered into force 1 st January 2017 Polar Code sets operational limitations for operating in ice Risk management has always been used as part of operations, this is now within the regulations As part of ice class selection (Operational Assessment) part of requirements for voyage planning As part of tactical ice navigation (POLARIS) Good near and real time ice information is vital for effective use of POLARIS

25 Thank you. Questions?

26 Rob Hindley Global Principal Specialist Arctic Technology E Rob.Hindley@lr.org Lloyd s Register EMEA Working together for a safer world Lloyd s Register and variants of it are trading names of Lloyd s Register Group Limited, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Copyright Lloyd s Register EMEA A member of the Lloyd s Register group.