ASSESS Initiative: Collaborating with NAFEMS to Enable the Simulation Revolution

Transcription

1 ASSESS Initiative: Collaborating with NAFEMS to Enable the Simulation Revolution

2 ASSESS Initiative

3 The ASSESS Initiative The ASSESS Initiative was formed to bring together key players to guide and influence strategies for software tools for model-based analysis, simulation, and systems engineering.

4 The ASSESS Initiative The ASSESS Vision To significantly expand the use and benefit of software tools for model-based analysis, simulation, and systems engineering in the engineering applications domain.

5 The ASSESS Initiative The ASSESS Initiative ASSESS activities started with a Summit in 2015 ASSESS annual Congress started in 2016 ASSESS Initiative LLC was formed as a legal entity in mid 2016 The ASSESS Initiative Membership Program went live in early 2018

6 The ASSESS Initiative Key drivers behind the ASSESS Initiative 1. Growing demand on How to be more competitive 2. Exponentially growing complexity of products & processes 3. Available computing power is rapidly removing the computing bottlenecks 4. New world of 3D printed objects and light weighting 5. Entirely new applications are creating a rapidly growing demand for simulation to enable breakthroughs 6. Simulation is used almost exclusively by a limited number of expert analysts 7. Simulation efforts have three key but disjointed vectors Commercial / Government / Research

7 The ASSESS Initiative ASSESS interacts and collaborates with multiple activities and organizations including: Cambashi, COFES Institute, intrinsim, NAFEMS, INCOSE, Revolution in Simulation, and a growing list of others.

8 The ASSESS Initiative ASSESS Advisory Committee 58 Industry Thought leaders 7 Working Groups focused on defining the future directions, activities and deliverables of the ASSESS Initiative 6 Working Groups aligned with actionable themes

9 The ASSESS Initiative Membership Program

10 ASSESS Initiative Membership Program Membership Program Goal To enable funding of ASSESS Initiative deliverables & activities beyond the Annual Congress Deliverables (Research Papers, ) Workshops Communication activities Other activities that help progress the ASSESS Vision

11 ASSESS Initiative Membership Program Membership Benefits Access to all ASSESS initiative deliverable documents at no charge, including: Strategic Insight Papers as available Survey research Others as appropriate Access to ASSESS Theme status and update reports Access to previous ASSESS Congress presentations Ability to participate in ASSESS related discussions & posts Discount on the Annual Congress Registration fee

12 ASSESS Initiative Membership Program Membership Status 83 Membership signups 11 Sponsors

13 Understanding the Simulation Revolution

14 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Failure Analysis This is where simulation begins Understanding why it failed Run by a few experts Dominated by test vs analysis comparisons

15 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Design Validation Checking before it fails The dawn of Virtual Prototyping Broader use of simulation

16 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Design Decision Support Why not use simulation to make better design decisions Why not ask designers to run simulations

17 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Design Drivers Simulation Driven Design Simulation making design decisions

18 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Systems Engineering Driven by growth of embedded software Heavily used in EDA world Design drivers extended to systems

19 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Generative Design Generative Design Software developing design options accounting for: Requirements Constraints Manufacturing Uncertainty Available design space

20 Understanding the Simulation Revolution The Changing Role of Engineering Simulation is really about becoming a major key to strategic goals for improving competitiveness Increase Innovation Increase Quality Reduce Risk Reduce Time Reduce Cost Generative Design

21 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Business Drivers Engineering Simulation is rapidly being recognized as a key enabler to Increased Competitiveness

22 Potential for Growth in Engineering Simulation Use Estimated Ratio of Engineers Performing Simulation to Total Engineers 1 in 22 1 in 6 ALL ?

23 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Generative Design will dramatically increase the amount, breadth and complexity of Engineering Simulation that is required More on Generative Design later

24 Understanding the Simulation Revolution The Digital Twin approach will dramatically increase the demand for Engineering Simulation What good is a digital twin if you cannot evaluate its performance virtually? - Fouad El Khaldi, ESI Group Digital Twins will generate a significant amount of data Machine Learning can play a role in managing the what simulations are needed and understanding Twin based results

25 Understanding the Simulation Revolution The demand for software tools for Engineering Simulation is exploding to support the demand for increased competitiveness and to deal with the rapidly growing complexity of products, processes, and systems. Business Drivers Generative Design Digital Twins New application areas (e.g. Biomedical)

26 Bob Tickel s ASSESS 2017 Congress Keynote illustrates estimated usage of Engineering Simulation at Cummins by decades from 1970 s to 2030 s 26

27 Market Data from 2017 CAE Observatory 2D & 3D simulation market continues to grow and is expected to exceed $ 7 Bn annually by 2020 But growth rate is slowing to ~ 8.5% Data courtesy of Cambashi CAE Observatory

28 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Growth of the Engineering Simulation market is tempered due to lack of expertise available Engineering Simulation is still done primarily by specialized Analysts Expertise Available Expertise Required

29 Market Data from 2018 CAE Observatory 2D & 3D simulation market continues to grow and is expected to approach $ 7 Bn annually by 2022 Growth rate is up by ~ 1% for but still < 10% Data courtesy of Cambashi CAE Observatory

30 Understanding the Simulation Revolution The increasing demand for Engineering Simulation is not going away A Simulation Revolution will occur: Model-Based Fit for purpose Integrated Smart Transparent / Invisible Generative Machine Learning CULTURE CHANGE Expertise Available Expertise Required MCAE Market Trends

31 Understanding the Simulation Revolution The Simulation Revolution is about making Engineering Simulation widely available & appropriate to support improved decision making throughout the entire life-cycle of engineered products and processes

32 Understanding the Simulation Revolution Rod Dreisbach (formerly of Boeing) set the goal for the Simulation Revolution at the ASSESS 2016 Congress

33 Enabling the Simulation Revolution

34 Enabling the Simulation Revolution Technologies Increased emphasis on purpose built applications Model Based Systems Engineering Emergence of simulation knowledge capture & reuse (KARREN) Emergence of near real time / near physics approaches Emergence of Generative Design IoT access to real data / Digital Twins Machine Learning

35 Enabling the Simulation Revolution Approaches Focusing on automation for appropriate accuracy for effective decision support Focusing on accuracy driven methods Focusing on application related engineering rather than physics Increasing the emphasis on Model Based Systems Engineering Leveraging Machine learning

36 Enabling the Simulation Revolution Approaches Accounting for Variability and Uncertainty Leveraging Surrogate Models Coupling Systems Models with more detailed models for better system level decisions Optimizing the system rather than the components Spawning simulations from real-time data automatically Enabling a viable business model

37 Enabling the Simulation Revolution We need a broad multi-industry initiative to raise awareness and develop/promote strategies to enable the Simulation Revolution Analysis, Simulation, and Systems Engineering Software Strategies (ASSESS) Initiative

38 The ASSESS Initiative Themes

39 The ASSESS Initiative Current ASSESS actionable Themes Alignment of Government / Research/ Commercial Activities Engineering Simulation Business Challenges Engineering Simulation Credibility Democratization of Engineering Simulation (DoES) Generative Design Integration of Systems and Detailed Sub-System Simulations Potential additional ASSESS actionable Themes Digital Twins

40 The ASSESS Initiative - Align GOVERNMENT-COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY MISALIGNMENT Driven by different Incentives: Time misalignment between commercial and government Accounting Practice Differences Audit Requirements Government Programs often Start from Scratch IP Expectations differ

41 The ASSESS Initiative - Align Align Theme Positioning Paper Overview of the current status of alignment (or lack thereof) across Government / Research / Commercial Engineering Simulation sectors Available on ASSESS website for anyone

42 The ASSESS Initiative - Align Align Theme Strategic Insight Paper(s) First Align Strategic Insight is in very early planning stage Deeper understanding the current status of alignment (or lack thereof) and associated issues. Target date for release TBD

43 The ASSESS Initiative - Business Business Working Group Key Factors Value proposition of Engineering Simulation Communication with non-technical executives Role of untapped Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) Addressing the Small-Medium Business (SMB) Market Business impact of web cloud/mobile Licensing models

44 The ASSESS Initiative - Business Business Survey outlines primary benefits achieved by using simulation 75.56% 68.89% 64.44% 62.22% 60.00% 53.33% 44.44% 42.22% 37.78% 31.11% Reduce risk of failure Improve performance Improve quality Faster development of new products Reduce prototyping costs Reduce product failure early in design phase Lower costs by changing design or materials Increase innovation Increase competitiveness Compliance with regulations and laws

45 The ASSESS Initiative - Business Business Theme Positioning Paper Planned for mid 2018 To be available on ASSESS website for anyone

46 The ASSESS Initiative - Business Business Theme Strategic Insight Paper(s) First Business Strategic Insight is currently in planning stage Understanding and explaining the Engineering Simulation value proposition Varies by customers Large company / SMB / Industry Consortium Targeted for release late 2018 or early 2019

47 The ASSESS Initiative - Credibility All Engineering Simulation should be done to support a design decision made or to be made Engineering Simulation is done as good as the Analyst thinks he can do in a given timeframe Decisions are being made with heavy reliance on experts knowledge & experience Not transferrable to new users Not scalable for Democratization

48 The ASSESS Initiative - Credibility Confidence Level of Simulation Results vs. Simulation Risks Simulation Credibility: Based on Judgment, Experience & Evidence-Based VVUQ Simulation Risk: Inaccurate Predictions Product Failure or Reduced Performance Financial Liability Customer Loss Understanding the appropriateness of every Engineering Simulation is a key for establishing Credibility

49 The ASSESS Initiative - Credibility Credibility Theme Positioning Paper Planned for mid 2018 To be available on ASSESS website for anyone

50 The ASSESS Initiative - Credibility Credibility Theme Strategic Insight Paper(s) First Credibility Strategic Insight is currently under development Understanding why/how to develop an Engineering Simulation Risk Management Model Based on NASA STD 7009A Targeted for release mid 2018

51 The ASSESS Initiative - DoES Definition of Democratization of Engineering Simulation (DoES) A significant expansion of the use of Engineering Simulation by all users in a reliable way, for whom access to the power of Engineering Simulation would be beneficial.

52 The ASSESS Initiative - DoES where we are today

53 The ASSESS Initiative - DoES DoES Goals Make it possible for people who could benefit from using Engineering Simulation to be able to use Engineering Simulation Get Engineering Simulation into the hands of current non-users Address Engineering Simulation ease of use issues Grow Engineering Simulation use by 10x in 5 years

54 The ASSESS Initiative - DoES DoES increases the need for Governance to maintain Confidence & establish Credibility Organizations must understand the role and place for simulation Non-expert users need guidance and control Applicability of models Problem definition Uncertainty Risk assessment & management

55 The ASSESS Initiative - DoES DoES Theme Positioning Paper Planned for mid 2018 To be available on ASSESS website for anyone

56 The ASSESS Initiative - DoES DoES Theme Strategic Insight Paper(s) First DoES Strategic Insight is currently in planning stage Understanding the different forms of Implementation for Democratization of Engineering Simulation (DoES) and their related benefits, activities, requirements and issues Different levels (scope) of Democratization Different types of organizations Consumer Centric or Vendor Centric Targeted for release mid to late 2018

57 The ASSESS Initiative - Generative Definition of Generative Design Generative Design is the use of algorithmic methods to quickly and automatically, or iteratively, transform requirements, constraints, uncertainties, and design space to create/drive viable designs or outcomes.

58 The ASSESS Initiative - Generative Generative Design Vision Generative Design is a fundamentally disruptive paradigm inversion. It proposes that designs (whose elegance and complexity humans cannot imagine) can be computer generated by proper specification of rules and requirements. This overturns millennia of scientific experience, that designs must first be created (if not built) so they can be evaluated against their performance requirements.

59 The ASSESS Initiative - Generative Issues Technical challenges must continue to be solved, but at a faster pace Commercialization challenges must be identified and solved Users must be able to understand the power of the new technology

60 The ASSESS Initiative - Generative Inputs Requirements (performance, cost, ) Constraints (connections, design rules, manufacturability, ) Available design space Uncertainty Information (loads, materials, ) Manufacturing information (additive, subtractive, ) Objectives (stiffness, stress, durability, vibration, cost) Outputs Range of possible designs within the available design space and specified manufacturing processes that address Requirements / Constraints / Uncertainty / Objectives

61 The ASSESS Initiative - Generative Generative Theme Positioning Paper Planned for mid 2018 To be available on ASSESS website for anyone Generative Theme Strategic Insight Paper(s) First Generative Strategic Insight paper is currently not yet in planning stage Topic TBD Targeted for release mid 2019

62 The ASSESS Initiative - Integration Why it is so hard: History - CAE tools developed discipline based Existing Assets Mental Models different discipline create different level of input output and different level of mathematical representations Data sets not consistent coupling introduce error state Sub models are build by different suppliers in different mathematical models and fidelity Terminology is not consistent

63 The ASSESS Initiative - Integration Integration Working Group Goals Explore, expand & improve integration methods Incorporate VV&A, UQ (currently component-based) Move toward libraries of accredited components Aspire to find a well-integrated approach to support a broad range of models

64 The ASSESS Initiative - Integration Integration Theme Positioning Paper Planned for mid 2018 To be available on ASSESS website for anyone

65 The ASSESS Initiative - Integration Integration Theme Strategic Insight Paper(s) First Integration Strategic Insight is currently not yet in planning stage Understanding why integration of Systems and detailed Sub-System simulations is not easy and how to move forward Starting with classification of Engineering Simulation Models Targeted for release TBD

66 ASSESS Annual Congress

67 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS Summit (January 2015, Sante Fe, NM) 40 Industry leading Ambassadors 1 Keynote presentation (Richard Riff retired from Ford) 5 Working Groups 8 key issues were highlighted Design Centered Workflow Ease of Use & Usability Pre-CAD Analysis & Optimization Impact of Web/Cloud/Mobile Knowledge Capture & Reuse Ability to Combine Heterogeneous Models in a Systems Approach Appropriate Model Fidelity and role of Unsexy Stuff Licensing Models Need to be Revisited

68 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS 2016 Congress (January 2016, Potomac, MD) 85 Industry leading participants 4 Keynote presentations Jesse Citizen DMSCO Roger Burkhart John Deere Zack Eckblad Intel Rod Dreisbach formerly with Boeing 26 Technology Briefings 7 Working Groups each with a particular ASSESS related theme

69 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS 2017 Congress (November , Potomac, MD) 80 Industry Leading Participants 2 Keynote Presentations Tina Morrison US FDA Bob Tickel Cummins Engine 10 Technology Briefings 16 Working Groups focused on a particular ASSESS related Themes

70 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS 2018 Congress (October 28-30, Chateau Elan Winery & Resort Braselton, GA) Capped at 115 industry leading participants 2 Keynote presentations 11 quick Notes From the Front presentations 12 Working Sessions focused on the ASSESS related themes

71 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS 2018 Congress Keynote presentations Diffusion of Innovation applied to Modeling & Simulation what can we learn from Social Science research? Mark Meili, R&D Director, Modeling & Simulation, The Procter & Gamble Company

72 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS 2018 Congress Keynote presentations Dimitri Mavris, Director of Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory & Boeing Chaired Professor, Georgia Institute of Technology

73 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS 2018 Congress Notes From the Front presentations Bob Deragisch - Parker Aerospace Katherine Lewis - Livermore National Laboratory Gene Allen - Decision Incite Hubertus Tummescheit Modelica Association Scott Leemans - X-EES Andreas Vlahinos - AES

74 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS 2018 Congress Notes From the Front presentations Scott Shaw MBDA Systems TBD - ASME Ted Blacker - Sandia Troy Peterson INCOSE Matt Breidenthal - HOK

75 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS 2018 Congress ASSESS Theme Based Working Sessions 2 sessions per each ASSESS Theme One targeted question for each Working Session (examples shown for DoES Theme) How does the timeliness of Engineering Simulation impact Democratization? How should embedded intelligence in software support broader use of Engineering Simulation?

76 ASSESS Initiative

77 The ASSESS Initiative The ASSESS Initiative was formed to bring together key players to guide and influence strategies for software tools for model-based analysis, simulation, and systems engineering.

78 The ASSESS Initiative ASSESS interacts and collaborates with multiple activities and organizations including: Cambashi, COFES Institute, intrinsim, NAFEMS, INCOSE, Revolution in Simulation, and a growing list of others.

79 The ASSESS Initiative The ASSESS Initiative ASSESS activities started with a Summit in 2015 ASSESS annual Congress started in 2016 ASSESS Initiative LLC was formed as a legal entity in mid 2016 The ASSESS Initiative Membership Program went live in early 2018

80 ASSESS Initiative Membership Program Membership Benefits Access to all ASSESS initiative deliverable documents at no charge, including: Strategic Insight Papers as available Survey research Others as appropriate Access to ASSESS Theme status and update reports Access to previous ASSESS Congress presentations Ability to participate in ASSESS related discussions & posts Discount on the Annual Congress Registration fee

81 ASSESS Annual Congress ASSESS 2018 Congress (October 28-30, Chateau Elan Winery & Resort Braselton, GA) Capped at 115 industry leading participants 2 Keynote presentations 11 quick Notes From the Front presentations 12 Working Sessions focused on the ASSESS related themes