Forewarned Is Forearmed
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1 CENTER for STRATEGIC FORESIGHT Forewarned Is Forearmed etravel meets Strategic Foresight Roumiana Gotseva, MBA ITB Berlin - March 9, 2017
2 Trend Watching: Scanning the external environment for early signals of change as they unfold in the present Scenario Thinking: The art of the possible imagining and reframing the baseline ( most likely ) future, exploring alternative futures Organizational Change: Opening up future possibilities by experimenting with different ways of being in the present influencing the future 2 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight roumiana.gotseva@europe.com
3 Trend watching: Sharing Economy, Big Data, Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, Wearables, Gamification, Cognizant Computing
4 TREND WATCHING Sharing Economy Wearables Gamification Augmented Reality 4 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight roumiana.gotseva@europe.com
5 A trend is a trend is a trend till it bends Scenarios provocative hypotheses built on change in the conditions of change
6 Outward-looking Global cooperation Globalization Global trade Multiculturalism Neoliberal values Rising middle classes Technological breakthroughs New materials Alternative fuels Successful climate change mitigation Medical breakthroughs Youth employment & skills Culture of innovation, initiative & empowerment Prosperity Scenario 1 Scenario 4 Open societies Closed societies Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scarcity Resource depletion Extreme weather Water crisis Failed climate change mitigation Political unrest Refugee crises & migration Economic polarization Safety net failures Social security crises Terrorist threats Inward-looking Protectionism Politics of fear Barriers to trade Rising tariffs State & regional competition Outdated global governance systems Traditional values 6 March 9, 2017 Reference: Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, Terry Collins, (2007) "The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques", Foresight, Vol. 9 Iss: 1, pp.5-25
7 Open societies Prosperity Sharing the love We re in this together Scarcity Closed societies 7 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight roumiana.gotseva@europe.com
8 CLA: Causal Layered Analysis Level 1: Litany quantitative trends & problems as usually presented by the news media. Events, issues, and trends are not connected and appear discontinuous. The litany level is the most visible and obvious, requiring little analytic capability. Assumptions are rarely questioned. Level 2: Systems concerned with systemic causes, including social, technological, economic, environmental political, and historical factors. This level excels at technical explanations as well as academic analysis. The data is often questioned; however, the language of questioning does not contest the paradigm within which the issue is framed, but remains obedient to it. Level 3: Worldview The third, deeper level is concerned with discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it (population growth and civilizational perspectives of family; lack of women s power; lack of social security; the population/consumption debate, for example). The task is to find deeper social, linguistic, and cultural processes that are actor invariant (not dependent on who the actors are) and to some extent system invariant. Discerning deeper assumptions behind the issue is crucial here, as are efforts to revision the problem. At this stage, one can explore how different discourses (ideologies, worldviews as expressed through civilizations, and epistemes, for example) do more than cause or mediate the issue, but constitute it. Level 4: Metaphor The fourth layer of analysis is at the level of metaphor or myth. These are the deep stories, the collective archetypes the unconscious and often emotive dimensions of the problem or the paradox (seeing population as nonstatistical, as community, or seeing people as creative resources, or the fear of being swamped by outsiders, for example). This level provides a gut/emotional level experience to the worldview under inquiry. The language used is less specific, more concerned with evoking visual images, with touching the heart instead of reading the head. This is the root level of questioning. This fourth layer takes us to the metaphorical level of identity. 8 March 9, 2017 Reference: Inayatullah, Sohail (2004) The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology
9 CLA: Sharing the Love Scenario 1: Open Systems / Prosperity Level 1: Litany Diseases of Affluence Reversed Wellness Tourism Targets VR-coholics Level 2: Systems STEEP Society is multifaceted; identities - fluid Technology in service of progress Economy bustling Environment stretched but coping Politics: democracy, global governance intact or revised Level 3: Worldviews / Discourses Neoliberal discourses obscuring current-day Have-Nots Level 4: Metaphor Everyone s a Winner, Baby etravel in service of progress: bigger, better, faster Sharing economy goes upscale Smart everything; augmented tourism the new normal 9 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight roumiana.gotseva@europe.com
10 CLA: We re all in this together Scenario 2: Open Systems / Scarcity Level 1: Litany Google Launches GreenJet: the long-haul budget airline that runs on solar energy, serving wildlife preserving honeymooners to the Arctic Level 2: Systems STEEP Society in motion & green Technology in service of resilience Economy minimal social income; purposeful organizations, CSR Environment hurting but cared for Politics of sustainability Level 3: Worldviews dominant discourse of care, responsibility and sustainability. Shadow discourses of cynicism and perception of exploitation Level 4: Metaphor Animate Earth etravel in service of sustainability: Sharing economy expands Augmented eco-tourism + gamification = edutainment 10 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight roumiana.gotseva@europe.com
11 CLA: We re all in this together Scenario 3: Closed Systems / Scarcity Level 1: Litany Parliament Passes a Bill on Mandatory Aeroponics: plan your next vacation on your balcony Level 2: Systems STEEP Society co-dependent on political leadership; learned helplessness Active but subversive underground movements Technology in service of survival & security Economy struggling, isolationist & protectionist practices Environment under severe & growing pressure Politics of fear, paternalism, neo-totalitarian Level 3: Worldviews Dominant discourse of fear and scarcity; shadow discourses of liberation, hope and power dynamics Level 4: Metaphor Stockholm Syndrome (capture bonding) etravel substitutes physical travel tourism is domestic or virtual reality Gamification in travel replacing travel Wearable technology jamming devices? Tourism contracts with governments and companies for hostel holidays for local populations Small segment of uber- luxury smart tourism serving political elites 11 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight roumiana.gotseva@europe.com
12 12
13 13 HELENA RESORT Sunny Beach, Bulgaria
14 14
15 CLA: Gilded Cage Scenario 4: Closed Systems / Prosperity Level 1: Litany America First, China First, Russia First Who Wants to Be Second? Level 2: Systems STEEP Society smug Technology in service of comfort Economy thriving and local Environment ok Politics of power, strength, isolationism, nationalism Level 3: Worldviews official discourse of dominance; alternative discourses fractured and silenced Level 4: Metaphor Taking Care of Our Own etravel in service of comfort tourism is domestic and high-end Tourism contracts with governments and companies for local populations everyone is an elite Small segment of uber-luxury smart tourism serving international elites & celebrities in total privacy and secrecy 15 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight roumiana.gotseva@europe.com
16 Open societies Prosperity Sharing the love We re in this together Scarcity Closed societies 16 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight
17 Organizational Transformation Not change management
18 Human-centric collective intelligence processes 18 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight
19 World Café 19 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight
20 Appreciative Inquiry 20 March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight
21 CLA: Causal Layered Analysis of a Preferred Future Level 1: Litany start with new invented headlines of a preferred future Level 2: Systems examine the systems dynamics and project unintended consequences Level 3: Worldview figure out the alternative worldviews and deal with possible shadows Level 4: Metaphor or start with a new metaphor of a preferred future Backcast to the present Plan possible actions Initiate change / small wins Monitor change / adjust actions / tactics / strategies 21 March 9, 2017
22 Thank you! Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Founder & Managing Director, Center for Strategic Foresight LTD Member of the Supervisory Board, International Asset Bank AD Phone: +359 (0) March 9, 2017
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