Toward a methodological framework for integrating governance in regional-scale low-carbon scenarios

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1 Toward a methodological framework for integrating governance in regional-scale low-carbon scenarios Aurore Fransolet PhD candidate, FNRS Research fellow Center for studies on sustainable development (IGEAT, ULB) Thesis director : Prof. Tom Bauler

2 INTRODUCTION Context : Low- carbon transi2on Target for reducing GHG by 80-95% in 2050 above 1990 levels Low- carbon scenarios Technically realisdc Several pathways Figure 1 : EvoluDon of GHG emissions by sector and total compared to 1990 (in %) in Belgium CENTRAL scenario (SPF, S.d.) 2

3 INTRODUCTION Toward low- carbon scenarios integra2ng governance Low- carbon scenarios for other parts of the world/ins2tu2onal levels Suitable decision support tools for long- term midgadon policies 3

4 INTRODUCTION Toward low- carbon scenarios integra2ng governance Low- carbon scenarios for other parts of the world/ins2tu2onal levels Suitable decision support tools for long- term midgadon policies High level of detail for the technical and economic issues 4

5 Toward low- carbon scenarios integra2ng governance INTRODUCTION Low- carbon scenarios for other parts of the world/ins2tu2onal levels Suitable decision support tools for long- term midgadon policies High level of detail for the technical and economic issues What about the governance? IntegraDng socio- polidcal dimensions in energy scenario = Methodological challenge High influence of the socio- polidcal context on the low- carbon transidon Low- carbon transidon = Unprecedented polidcal challenge that, in order to be tackled, will require a new concepdon of governance 5

6 Toward low- carbon scenarios integra2ng governance INTRODUCTION Low- carbon scenarios for other parts of the world/ins2tu2onal levels Suitable decision support tools for long- term midgadon policies High level of detail for the technical and economic issues What about the governance? IntegraDng socio- polidcal dimensions in energy scenario = Methodological challenge High influence of the socio- polidcal context on the low- carbon transidon Low- carbon transidon = Unprecedented polidcal challenge that, in order to be tackled, will require a new concepdon of governance Low- carbon scenarios integra2ng governance as an object of study could be very useful in the configura2on of the low- carbon transi2on 6

7 INTRODUCTION Research project «Development and assessment of a methodological framework for integra2ng governance as an object of study in low- carbon scenarios» 7

8 Methodological framework for integrating governance in regionalscale low-carbon scenarios

9 Object and scope of analysis Object of study Governance of the low- carbon transidon «Every mode of poli.cal steering involving public and private actors, including tradi.onal modes of government and different types of steering from hierarchical imposi.on to sheer informa.on measures» (HériDer, 2002) 9

10 Object and scope of analysis Object of study Governance of the low- carbon transidon Temporal scope 2050 «Every mode of poli.cal steering involving public and private actors, including tradi.onal modes of government and different types of steering from hierarchical imposi.on to sheer informa.on measures» (HériDer, 2002) 10

11 Object and scope of analysis Object of study Governance of the low- carbon transidon Temporal scope 2050 Spa2al scope «Every mode of poli.cal steering involving public and private actors, including tradi.onal modes of government and different types of steering from hierarchical imposi.on to sheer informa.on measures» (HériDer, 2002) Walloon Region (Be) MulDlevel perspecdve : Local, Belgian federal and European levels 11

12 Object and scope of analysis Object of study Governance of the low- carbon transidon Temporal scope 2050 Spa2al scope «Every mode of poli.cal steering involving public and private actors, including tradi.onal modes of government and different types of steering from hierarchical imposi.on to sheer informa.on measures» (HériDer, 2002) Walloon Region (Be) MulDlevel perspecdve : Local, Belgian federal and European levels Substan2ve scope Sectors of energy producdon, transports, buildings and industry 12

13 Par2cipatory backcas2ng approach NormaDve approach Start from images of the future and define the pathways to connect these futures to the present Figure 3 : Principle and key characterisdcs of BackcasDng (Quist 2013, p. 752) 13

14 Steps of the scenario building methodology CREATION OF THE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE LOW- CARBON SOCIETY QUANTIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE IMAGES DESIRABLE IMAGES OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN

15 Steps of the scenario building methodology CREATION OF THE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE LOW- CARBON SOCIETY QUANTIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE IMAGES DESIRABLE IMAGES OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN 2050 IDENTIFICATION OF MODES OF GOVERNANCE LIKELY TO ENSURE THE LOW- CARBON TRANSITION STRATEGIC PHASE GOVERNANCE PATHWAYS DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS 15

16 Steps of the scenario building methodology CREATION OF THE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE LOW- CARBON SOCIETY QUANTIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE IMAGES DESIRABLE IMAGES OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN 2050 IDENTIFICATION OF MODES OF GOVERNANCE LIKELY TO ENSURE THE LOW- CARBON TRANSITION STRATEGIC PHASE GOVERNANCE PATHWAYS DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS FINALISATION AND VALIDATION OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS ADDITIONAL DRIVERS (VISIONS AND VALUES) 16

17 Steps of the scenario building methodology CREATION OF THE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE LOW- CARBON SOCIETY QUANTIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE IMAGES DESIRABLE IMAGES OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN 2050 IDENTIFICATION OF MODES OF GOVERNANCE LIKELY TO ENSURE THE LOW- CARBON TRANSITION STRATEGIC PHASE GOVERNANCE PATHWAYS DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS FINALISATION AND VALIDATION OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS ADDITIONAL DRIVERS (VISIONS AND VALUES) Assesment of the scenarios 17

18 Steps of the scenario building methodology CREATION OF THE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE LOW- CARBON SOCIETY QUANTIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE IMAGES DESIRABLE IMAGES OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN 2050 IDENTIFICATION OF MODES OF GOVERNANCE LIKELY TO ENSURE THE LOW- CARBON TRANSITION STRATEGIC PHASE GOVERNANCE PATHWAYS DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS FINALISATION AND VALIDATION OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS ADDITIONAL DRIVERS (VISIONS AND VALUES) Assesment of the scenarios 18

19 Steps of the scenario building methodology Iden2fica2on of modes of governance likely to ensure the low- carbon transi2on Morphological analysis Sok modeling method that «aims to explore possible futures in a systema.c way by studying all the combina.ons resul.ng from the breakdown of a system» (Velte et al., 2006) * Treib et al.,

Steps of the scenario building methodology Iden2fica2on of modes of governance likely to ensure the low- carbon transi2on Morphological analysis Sok modeling method that «aims to explore possible

20 Steps of the scenario building methodology Iden2fica2on of modes of governance likely to ensure the low- carbon transi2on Morphological analysis Sok modeling method that «aims to explore possible futures in a systema.c way by studying all the combina.ons resul.ng from the breakdown of a system» (Velte et al., 2006) * Treib et al., 2007 Selec2on of several consistent and contras2ng modes de governance likely to ensure the low- carbon transi2on 20

21 Steps of the scenario building methodology CREATION OF THE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE LOW- CARBON SOCIETY QUANTIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE IMAGES DESIRABLE IMAGES OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN 2050 IDENTIFICATION OF MODES OF GOVERNANCE LIKELY TO ENSURE THE LOW- CARBON TRANSITION STRATEGIC PHASE GOVERNANCE PATHWAYS DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS FINALISATION AND VALIDATION OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS ADDITIONAL DRIVERS (VISIONS AND VALUES) Assesment of the scenarios 21

22 Steps of the scenario building methodology Strategic phase Images of the future low- carbon society Modes of governance likely to ensure the low- carbon transi2on governance 1 governance 2 governance 3 governance 4 Image 1 Image 2 Image 3 Image 4 22

23 Steps of the scenario building methodology Strategic phase Images of the future low- carbon society Modes of governance likely to ensure the low- carbon transi2on governance 1 governance 2 governance 3 governance 4 Image 1 Image 2 Image 3 Image 4 23

24 Steps of the scenario building methodology Strategic phase Images of the future low- carbon society Image 1 Image 2 Image 3 Image 4 Modes of governance likely to ensure the low- carbon transi2on governance 1 SCENARIO A governance 2 SCENARIO D governance 3 SCENARIO B governance 4 SCENARIO C Selec2on of a number consistent and contras2ng combina2ons that will cons2tute the backbones of the low- carbon scenarios 24

25 Steps of the scenario building methodology CREATION OF THE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE LOW- CARBON SOCIETY QUANTIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE IMAGES DESIRABLE IMAGES OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN 2050 IDENTIFICATION OF MODES OF GOVERNANCE LIKELY TO ENSURE THE LOW- CARBON TRANSITION STRATEGIC PHASE GOVERNANCE PATHWAYS DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS FINALISATION AND VALIDATION OF THE TRANSITION PATHWAYS ADDITIONAL DRIVERS (VISIONS AND VALUES) Assesment of the scenarios 25

26 Steps of our scenario building methodology Development of the transi2on pathways For each element of the images of the future low- carbon society they study and according to the mode of governance associated with the image, the pardcipants split in sub- groups will answer the following quesdons: 1. «Which barrier(s) hinders the development of this low- carbon innova.on?» 2. «How to overcome this barrier?» 1. «Which policy instrument or other decision could be implemented with a view to overcoming this barrier? By whom? At which ins6tu6onal level? When?» 2. «Does this policy process require the crea.on of new ins6tu6onal structures?» First version of the storylines 26

27 Conclusion and perspectives

28 Problems and outstanding ques2ons CONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVES How to integrate the polidcal philosophy behind the governance model into the scenarios? 28

29 Problems and outstanding ques2ons CONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVES How to integrate the polidcal philosophy behind the governance model into the scenarios? How to determine which mode of governance matches the best with which images of the future low- carbon society? Images of the future low- carbon society Image 1 Image 2 Image 3 Image 4 Modes of governance likely to ensure the low- carbon transi2on governance 1 SCENARIO A governance 2 SCENARIO D governance 3 SCENARIO B governance 4 SCENARIO C 29

30 Problems and outstanding ques2ons CONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVES How to integrate the polidcal philosophy behind the governance model into the scenarios? How to determine which mode of governance matches the best with which images of the future low- carbon society? To what extend should the stakeholders pardcipate in the development of the governance pathways? 30

31 Thank you for your attention! Aurore Fransolet PhD candidate, FNRS Research fellow Center for studies on sustainable development (IGEAT, ULB) Thesis director : Prof. Tom Bauler

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