What is backcasting & why do we need it

Transcription

1 What is backcasting & why do we need it

2 Tools for complexity studies We need tools to find options to solve complex problems like Sustainable Development Long term Great uncertainties Great number of stakeholders Conflicting interests Multi dimensional Multi sectoral

3 Predict most likely future Future Explore alternative futures Future Assess feasibility of desirable future Future Present Present Present

4 Forecasting Backcasting

5 SD & future studies SD has a strong future orientation, therefore future studies are relevant for SD New approaches are needed: Combining long-term vision and short-term action Involvement of a broad range of stakeholders Incorporating environmental, social and economic component CST: Culture, Structure & Technology In sum: participatory integrated strategic approaches

6 E FF I C IE N CY How to deal with the future? Innovations based on needs and function Optimal use Improvement of process and product TIME

7 Culture Needs & Functions E FF I C IE 100 Technology Needs Functions Structure N CY 1? 20 TIME

8 Why Backcasting? Clear future visions have a strong guiding power Man on the Moon, MDG, City of Curitiba etc. Defining and clarifying an attractive sustainable future It forces to specify norms and values Alternative for traditional forecasting Fit for wicked problems Experiences: The Natural Step Netherlands: Sustainable Technology Development program

9 Backcasting: from vision to action VISION of the future E FF I C IE N CY Backcasting CHARACTERISTICS Explicitly normative Participatory System oriented Desired futures & changes (action-oriented) Combines process, design, analysis Transdisciplinary Helpful if institutions / rule system lack TIME

10 Backcasting Toolkit: 4 kinds of methods Participation and interaction workshops, visioning, creativity stimulation, brain storms Design and scenario methods modeling, forecasting Analysis and modeling methods LCA, effect analysis, stakeholder analysis Management methods Process, Project and Network management

11 Stakeholders & sustainability Definition a social group / individual that can affect or can be affected by a topic / organisation / decision Why stakeholder participation is important: enhanced legitimacy context / group specific knowledge increased reflexivity / quality of outcomes support for outcomes (co-ownership) learning (mental frameworks) accountability (increased co-responsibility)

12 Backcasting in 5 steps 1. Analysis 2. Design 3. What is necessary? 4. Action plan 5. Follow-up 1. Strategic problem orientation 2. Develop future vision 3. Backcasting analysis 4. Elaborate future alternative & define follow-up agenda 5. Embed result and agenda & stimulate follow-up Quist J (2007) Backcasting for a sustainable future: the impact after ten years, Eburon Publishers, Delft NL, ISBN

13 Backcasting: step by step VISION of the future 2 E FF I C IE Backcasting 3 Strategic problem orientation 1 N CY 4 Action plan 5 TIME

14 Step 1 Strategic problem orientation 1A. Topic, setting boundaries, goals & demands 1B. Define own backcasting methodology & work/process plan 1C. System analysis (regime analysis) e.g. also external factors (2 types) and niches 1D. Actor/stakeholder analysis 1E. Problem analysis & problem definition

15 Step 2 Make future vision 2A. Set normative demands E.g. factor 20, attractive for whom, etc. 2B. Generate & elaborate ideas 2C. Make 1 or several visions: Dimensions for variation (scale, lifestyle, consumption) System dimensions (e.g. buying, storing, treating, consuming)

16 Step 3 Backcasting analysis 3A. WHAT-WHO-HOW analysis: technological, cultural-behavioural, organizational, and structural-institutional changes 3B. Update Stakeholder identification: required stakeholders and actions 3C. Drivers and barriers analysis

17 Step 4/5 Elaboration, agenda, pathway problem orientation 4A. Vision elaboration & assessment Link to stakeholder interviews (e.g. by ) 4B. Define action-agenda & follow-up recommendations 4C. Make pathway towards future 4D. Communication & implementation plan 4E. Elaborate 1 specific project proposal

18 backcasting exercise Sustainable mobility

19 Leo Jansen

20 Backcasting: step by step VISION of the future 2 E FF I C IE Backcasting 3 Strategic problem orientation 1 N CY 4 Action plan 5 TIME

21 Backcasting in 5 steps 1. Analysis 2. Design 3. What is necessary? 4. Action plan 5. Follow-up 1. Strategic problem orientation 2. Develop future vision 3. Backcasting analysis 4. Elaborate future alternative & define follow-up agenda 5. Embed result and agenda & stimulate follow-up Quist J (2007) Backcasting for a sustainable future: the impact after ten years, Eburon Publishers, Delft NL, ISBN

22 Backcasting Exercise 1. Analysis Defining system boundaries 2. Design Stakeholder analysis 3. What is necessary? Elaboration of criteria for the vision 4. Action plan Driver analysis. Identification of key uncertainties 5. Follow-up Developing pathways (backcasting analysis)

23 Defining system boundaries 5 minutes What is appropriate time frame (2030, 2050)? Why? How many scenarios/visions (1 or several)? Why? Transport: at what scale (local, regional, national)? Why? What are main parts of transportation system in Vilanova. What are system boundaries?

24 Defining system boundaries Territory Internal mobility (Vilanova only) Tarragona - Barcelona Regional mobility (Catalunya) Type Passengers only Passengers + Cargos Time frame > 20xx Number of visions > 3-4

25 Train Bus Intercity Intracity Car Taxis Bicycle Motorcycle Walk Current situation means of transportation

26 Current situation problems Economic Affordability for people Environmental pollution problems due to big number of cars Urban comfort space usage by cars Time concern much time is used Safety Limited usage of bicycles

27 interest Stakeholder grid high Subjects Players ( Movers and shakers ) Bystanders / Crowd ( Dead Wood ) Actors / Context Setters ( Unguided missiles ) low power high Source: Eden and Ackermann (1998: 122)

28 Stakeholder analysis 10 minutes 1. Identify stakeholders (people, groups, organizations, etc.) BONUS 1. Assess power (impact) and interest of stakeholders 2. Identify main conflict and union points for different stakeholders

29 interest Stakeholder grid high Stakeholder 3 Stakeholder 1 Stakeholder 2 low power high

30 Stakeholders = Not only Individuals and organisations, that can influence issue (topic, decision) or that can be influenced by issue (topic, decision) But also companies experts knowledge institutes governments societal organizations

31 interest Stakeholder grid high Commuters Employees of transport companies Inhabitants Employers Environmental NGOs Researchers & entrepreneurs Tourist businesses Manufacturing companies Construction companies Media Funding institutions Energy companies Goods providers Urban planners Service providers Local government Regional government low 1. Local government 2. Operating companies 3. R&D 4. Energy companies power 5. Commuters / Inhabitants 6. NGOs high

32 Identify needs 5 minutes 1. What are needs for mobility in Vilanova?

33 Identifying needs Accessibility Food Medicare Work Leisure Education

34 Work in groups Remember of your personal role as a stakeholder Aim to achieve consensus in the group accounting even minor opinions Be active!

35 Elaborate criteria for the future vision 10 minutes 1. What are good/ relevant criteria for a future transportation system(s) in Vilanova? 2. Assess elaborated criteria in points [0-5]. 3. Select 5 most valuable criteria.

36 Criteria set 1. Environment friendly 2. Accessibility 3. Affordability 4. Reliability 5. Time efficiency 6. Profitability Comfortable Providing jobs Safety

37 Inventory of drivers A. Climate change B. Prices for resources Y. Demography dynamics Z. Government policy

38 High To take into account anyway Develop futures Low u n c e r t a i n t y High Neglect I m p a c t Neglect Low Driver analysis

39 Driver analysis 10 minutes 1. Identify which drivers will mark the future? Demographics, Political, Economic, Technological, Social / Cultural etc 2. Assess the level of impact and uncertainty for each of the driving force 3. Select 2 key uncertainties (driver with high impact and high uncertainty)

40 Key uncertainties Economic situation Regional politics / Political will New mobility technologies Attitude / lifestyles Fuel prices Climate change

41 Generating options for scenarios 10 minutes 1. Think of possible solutions for your vision 2. Name main options that characterize/differ your solutions

42 Main options electricity / renewables / fossil fuels individual / shared irregular / intensive mobility public / private

43 Scenario Constructor Options Regular mobility Low High Passenger model Individual Shared / Common Resource use model All renewables Electricity based only

44 Scenario Constructor Options Regular mobility Low High Passenger model Flexible Common Resource use model All renewables Electricity based only

45 Scenarios Scenario Low (0) vs High (1) Individual (0) vs Common (1) All renewables (0) vs Electricity (1) Comment

46 Evaluation of scenarios against criteria 10 minutes Evaluate each scenario according the set of selected criteria. Use the scale [1-5], where 1 corresponds to the poorest performance and 5 to the best one. Remember that group results should be reached through consensus agreement of all stakeholders, not voting.

47 Testing scenarios against criteria Criteria 1 Transport efficiency Criteria 2 Environment friendly Criteria 3 Comfort Criteria 4 Affordability SUM Scenario 1 Local bicycle riders Scenario 5 Smart system Scenario 6 BAU-2030

48 Testing scenarios against criteria Criteria 1 Transport efficiency Criteria 2 Environment friendly Criteria 3 Comfort Criteria 4 Affordability SUM Scenario 1 Local bicycle riders Scenario 5 Smart system Scenario 6 BAU

49 Evaluation of scenarios against key uncertainties 10 minutes Evaluate each scenario against key uncertainties by locating each scenario on futures plane Remember that group results should be reached through consensus agreement of all stakeholders, not voting.

50 positive Economic situation lack Energy resources enough negative

51 positive Economic situation 5 6 lack Energy resources enough 1 negative

52 Developing pathways 15 minutes C culture S structure T technology 1. What changes are necessary (C, S, T)? 2. How can these changes be achieved? 3. Who (which stakeholders) are needed? 4. What are drivers and barriers for this pathway? Adjusting future vision allowed!

53 Pathways - changes Technological changes Control system Smart transport technologies Infrastructure in cities Diversified electricity generation ( smart grids ) Structural & institutional changes Tax regulations Service changes Cultural changes Behavior changes (think globally - live locally)

54 Pathways - stakeholders New stakeholders (like new operators, integrators) can appear Local government Tax regulations Investor support New regulations Enabling citizen awareness (+ Environment NGOs, Media) Operating companies R&D Structural changes within companies Energy companies R&D New infrastructure Inhabitants Participate in decision-making Control the environmental and social aspects Environment NGOs Control the environmental and social aspects

55 Barriers Drivers Non-acceptance by inhabitants Technology fails Economic stagnation Lobbies of existing companies Economic boost Personal comfort Energy security

56 References Quist J (2007) Backcasting for a sustainable future: the impact after ten years, Eburon Publishers, Delft NL, ISBN , Repository.tudelft.nl

57 Thank you for participation. Questions?