Offshore Wind Energy in Germany: System Benefits and Cost Reduction Potentials

Transcription

1 Offshore Wind Energy in Germany: System Benefits and Cost Reduction Potentials Presentation of study results from prognos/fichtner and Fraunhofer-IWES Andreas WAGNER Stiftung OFFSHORE-WINDENERGIE German Offshore Wind Energy Foundation DFBEE-WAB; Offshore-Konferenz, 20 Jan Bremerhaven

2 I. German Offshore Wind Energy Foundation o Independent, non-partisan institution to support the development of offshore wind energy, founded in 2005 o Platform for offshore wind (and maritime) industry, for policy-makers and research-oriented stakeholders o Board of Trustees - key industry & policy stakeholders o PR and public acceptance activities, o Policy initiatives & studies OffWEA project Consulting and support for the federal government in realising and advancing the German offshore wind energy strategy WINDSPEED SEANERGY 2020 Interreg Projects: 4POWER, South Baltic OFF.E.R. 2

3 I. The OffWEA Project Consulting and support for the federal government in realising and advancing the German offshore wind energy strategy. The German Offshore Wind Energy Foundation and its project partners on behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Environment Project duration: Information Platform Incl. calculation tool for offshore LCOE 3 SOW E.ON Netz D. Gehring SOW E.ON Netz D. Gehring SOW E.ON Netz D. Gehring

4 II. Spatial Planning and Permitting for Offshore Wind Farms in Germany (EEZ)

5 III. Status Quo Offshore Wind Licensing 95 applications for offshore wind farms in German EEZ (78 in North Sea), 33 projects licensed (incl. 3 prototype turbines) Total capacity 8-10 GW North Sea > 80 % of projects, Baltic Sea < 20 %

6 II. Status Quo Offshore Wind Construction

7 III. Offshore grid connection projects German North Sea Project In operation Capacity (MW) Year of operation alpha ventus BorWin Riffgat (delayed by > 6 months) 108 Feb Under construction/ awarded BorWin DolWin DolWin HelWin HelWin SylWin Nordergründe DolWin Ʃ built / awarded In tender phase BorWin3, BorWin ??? To be tendered until 2023 according to O-NEP DC-connections Initial Offshore Grid Structure HVDC cable routes & platforms BorWin2 BorWin1 BorWin4 alpha ventus DolWin1 DolWin3 DolWin2 Riffgat BorWin3 UW Emden Borssum SylWin1 KS Diele KS Dörpen West HelWin2 HelWin1 UW Hagermarsch KS Emden/Ost Nordergründe UW Inhausen Source: TenneT, 2013, updates SOW 2014 KS Büttel 7

8 IV. Study on cost reduction potentials of offshore wind energy in Germany Partners Commissioning organisations and companies Published August

9 IV. Study assumptions: 2 offshore wind scenarios at 3 different sites (North Sea) 9

10 IV. Projection of levellised cost of energy (LCOE) in cent/kwh (real terms, example of site B) Economies of scale - increasing competiton lead to higher cost reduction potentials in scenario 2 10

11 IV. LCOE < 10 ct/kwh by 2023 On average, 31 % cost reduction (Scenario 1) and 39 % (Scenario 2) 11

12 IV. Realising cost reduction potentials requires active commitment and participation of all stakeholders Recommendations - Policy and Regulatory Environment Stable legal and political framework conditions Define standards for components and for grid connection (platforms) Simplify certification and permitting criteria Recommendations for Industry towards techology innovation: Optimise plant technologies towards maximum energy yield/operational hours Optimisation of existing support structures and development of new ones Improve installation logistics Intensify R&D efforts Recommendations for Industry stakeholders to improve efficiency Development of joint installation and O&M concepts Intensified efforts for serial & automated production 12

13 IV. Long lead times for OWF development Idealized (!) Project Schedule Project development 4-6 Years Construction Permit Construction Operation Phase Extension of operation Decommissi oning Financial Negotiations 1-2 Years FID 2-4 Years Commissioning 20 Years 5 Years 1-2 Years Total project lifetime years Prognos/Fichtner, 2013 Stable, long-term reliable political framework essential!!! 13

14 Energy System Benefits of Offshore Wind Key assumptions/results 1. Energiewende requires 800 TWh from wind and solar (by 2050) can only be realized with large offshore wind capacities! 2. Offshore wind leads to reduced cost for flexibility measures lowest cost option by Offshore wind has considerable power plant characteristics important for security of supply (provision of balancing power, high schedule reliability, etc.) 4. Stable, continuous expansion of offshore wind capacities required to harvest energy system benefits and cost reduction potentials Study launched in Nov. 2013, (EWEA Offshore 2013) 14

15 Energy Mix Transformation in Germany Primary Energy Consumption % RE, 20 % fossil fuels Electricity Production in 2050 Sharp increase due to higher shares of CHP, e-mobility, Power to heat & Power to gas. 95 % from RE Fossil fuels mainly for balancing requirements Fraunhofer-IWES,

16 Wind (on- and offshore) share (%), r elated to FEE (wind, PV combined) RE Potential (Wind, PV) and its limitations Generation Mix assumptions Scenario input - optimum distribution of wind/pv Scenario Assumptions - Capacity (GW) and Electricity Production (TWH) Optimized Onshore PV Growth Growth Scen. Growth Scen. Scenario Offshore wind e. share (%), related to total wind e. production Fraunhofer-IWES,

17 Scenario Results Overview of annual flexibility costs and LCOE (2050) in the scenarios Power Plant Characteristics - Offshore wind: Steady electricity production/high availability Optimized Growth Scenario: bn flexibility cost savings/year Optimized Growth Scenario: bn total cost savings/year 17

18 VI. Legal Framework for Offshore Wind Energy The Renewable Energy Act - EEG Support for renewable energy since 2000 EEG (RE Act) - specifies remuneration, technology differentiation Issues in the past for offshore wind (prior to 2009) No investments due to insufficient remuneration for offshore wind energy (9,1 ct/kwh) EEG of 2008 (entered into force on 1 st Jan. 2009) Increase of initial Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) to 13.0 ct/kwh, plus starter bonus of 2 ct, granted for 12 years after commissionig (if commissioning before 1 January 2016) EEG of 2011(entered into force on 1 st Jan. 2012) Compressed FiT: Option to claim an increased initial rate of 19 ct/kwh only granted for 8 years after commissioning, afterwards FiT drops to 3.5 ct/kwh Important boost for investment decisions New issues since 2013 Federal elections Sep Electricity price brake (Strompreisbremse) public debate Currently, proposals on EEG (RE Act) reform until summer year-extension of compressed FiT proposed

19 VI. Offshore Wind Energy in Germany An illustration of initial positive results Positive operational results: - alpha ventus: > full load hours in 2011 (267 GWh) 15 % above expectations, - Baltic I similar results; turbine availability 98 % Important contribution to energy system reliability! 1 billion Euro already invested along the German coast - Port infrastructure, production facilities (offshore turbines/components), construction vessels, (converter) platforms etc. Vast opportunities for maritime industries! 10 billion Euro investment for Offshore Wind Farms 8 OWP under construction by end of /3 cost reduction potential by 2023 provided a steady project pipeline can be triggered by legal framework 18,000 jobs created by 2012 (98,000 jobs in onshore wind) Need for new and adjusted professional and vocational training and university education courses! 19

20 THANK YOU! Andreas Wagner, managing director Berlin Office Schiffbauerdamm 19, Berlin Phone: Fax: Varel Office Oldenburger Str. 65, Varel Phone: Fax: Studies available at: