BRITISH INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS

Transcription

1 BRITISH INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS ST JOHN S COLLEGE OXFORD 20 SEPTEMBER 2012 Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

2 GLOBAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) 13% $280bn 22% $187bn 1% 31% $189bn $247bn 35% $153bn $54bn 39% $75bn 51% $113bn Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for re-invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

3 TOTAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY In energy, a billion dollars isn t cool. You know what s cool? A trillion dollars. That s cool Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Columbia Pictures MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

4 FINANCIAL NEW INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY BY REGION, ($BN) Europe North America Asia & Oceania Middle East & Africa South America Note: New investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. This comparison does not include small-scale projects or R&D estimates. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

5 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD 500 NEX NASDAQ S&P Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Note: Values as of 22 August 2012; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

6 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD NEX NASDAQ S&P 500 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Note: Values as of 22 August 2012; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

7 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2012 YTD NEX NASDAQ S&P 500 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Note: Values as of 22 August 2012; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

8 UNCOMPETITIVE TECHNOLOGY Source: Bloomberg MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

9 EUROPEAN FINANCIAL CRISIS Photo: Bloomberg MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

10 US POLITICAL CRISIS He s going to stop us from drilling our way to energy independence! He s ignoring the really bad thing beginning with C which we can t mention any more! MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

11 NEW ENERGY FINANCE UNDERLYING THESIS, 2004 Fundamental re-engineering of the world s energy industry around low carbon, more secure solutions and architecture Will cost trillions Will take decades Will be supported by government actions Will be funded largely by capital markets Source: New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

12 GLOBAL CUMULATIVE RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS BY SECTOR, (GW) Other renewables Biomass & Waste Solar Wind Small Hydro Note: Other renewables includes geothermal and marine Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

13 EU NET CAPACITY ADDITIONS (GW) ,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Other Gas PV Wind 0 Source: EWEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

14 AUSTRALIA ACTUAL VS FORECASTED ELECTRICITY DEMAND, (TWH) Forecast as of August Actual annual energy demand 5% shortfall due to energy efficiency and solar Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

15 INDUSTRY IN TRANSITION 1. Cost competitiveness 2. Supply chain 3. Intelligence (smart grid / big data, internet of things, etc) 4. Advanced transportation 5. Next-gen bioenergy 6. Geographic diversity Source: New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

16 TS ELIOT, THE HOLLOW MEN, 1925 Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow. MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

17 TS ELIOT, THE HOLLOW MEN, 1925 Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow. This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper. MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

18 PV MODULE PRICES, ($/W) PV MODULE PRICES HAVE FALLEN 75% SINCE ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 historic prices Chinese c-si module prices First Solar thin-film module cost Notes: Inflation adjustment using US PPI, R2 of c-si regression = 0.94, R2 of FSLR regression = 0.98; data since 2007 based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance Solar Spot Market Price Index experience curve Thin-film experience curve MW (log) Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FSLR filings MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

19 AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND, ( /MWH) 500 WIND TURBINE PRICES HAVE FALLEN 25% SINCE % ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 MW Note: Learning curve (blue line) is least square regression: R 2 = 0.88 and 14% learning rate. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

20 LITHIUM-ION BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE $/kwh 10,000 EV BATTERY PRICES HAVE FALLEN 30% SINCE 2010 Consumer Li-ion battery experience curve 1, Q BNEF EV Li-ion battery cost forecast Historic consumer Li-ion battery prices 100 Historic EV Li-ion battery prices ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Cumulative production (MWh) Source: Battery University, MIIT, IIT, Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

21 GRID-COMPETITIVE CLEAN ENERGY New coal Best Wind Gas at $6/MMBtu = = Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

22 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE GAS PRICE FORECASTS VS. NYMEX STRIP ($/MMBTU) BNEF 5 4 NYMEX Short -and medium-term quarterly prices Long-term annual average prices Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

23 SUPPLY CHAIN CASE STUDY - US CAR MANUFACTURERS Major Manufacturers Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

24 GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE SALES, 2011 ( 000 VEHICLES) 67, Global auto & light commercial vehicle production 2011 EV sales Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

25 FIRST- VERSUS SECOND-GENERATION BIOFUEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY, (BN LITRES) Second-gen First-gen Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

26 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION Q Q ($BN) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Europe United States China Brazil Other Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D. Now includes small distributed capacity & adjustment for re-invested equity. NEW Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

27 INDUSTRY IN TRANSITION 1. Cost competitiveness 2. Supply chain 3. Intelligence (smart grid / big data, internet of things, etc) 4. Advanced transportation 5. Next-gen bioenergy 6. Geographic diversity Source: New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

28 INDUSTRY IN TRANSITION 1. Cost competitiveness 2. Supply chain 3. Intelligence (smart grid / big data, internet of things, etc) 4. Advanced transportation 5. Next-gen bioenergy 6. Geographic diversity 7. Capital markets Source: New Energy Finance MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

29 GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET SIZES IN PERSPECTIVE ($BN) Equity capital markets $47,000bn Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bank for International Settlements, Citi MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

30 GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET SIZES IN PERSPECTIVE ($BN) Equity capital markets $47,000bn Debt capital markets $63,000bn Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bank for International Settlements, Citi MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

31 GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET SIZES IN PERSPECTIVE ($BN) Equity capital markets $47,000bn Debt capital markets $63,000bn Green bond market $230bn Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bank for International Settlements, Citi MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

32 GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET SIZES IN PERSPECTIVE ($BN) Equity capital markets $47,000bn Debt capital markets $63,000bn Green bond market $230bn Green project bond market $14bn Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bank for International Settlements, Citi MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

33 GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET SIZES IN PERSPECTIVE ($BN) Equity capital markets $47,000bn Debt capital markets $63,000bn Green bond market $230bn Green project bond market $14bn Clean energy project bond market $3bn Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bank for International Settlements, Citi MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

34 UK CLEAN ENERGY-RELATED POLICY & REGULATION Climate Change Levy Renewables Obligation Certificates Cap & Trade - EU-ETS Cap & Trade - CDM Carbon Reduction Commitment Climate Change Act ROC banding Carbon Floor Price Feed-in-Tariffs Contracts for Difference Capacity Market CCS Commercialisation Programme Accelerated Depreciation for energy efficiency Green Deal MICHAEL LIEBREICH, OXFORD, SEPT

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