Create Accurate Type Wells. Randy Freeborn and Boyd Russell, Energy Navigator Tulsa SPEE Luncheon, June 5, 2012
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1 Create Accurate Type Wells Randy Freeborn and Boyd Russell, Energy Navigator Tulsa SPEE Luncheon, June 5, 2012
2 Agenda Current practice What s wrong? Synthetic example 4 field examples Valid groups Auto forecasts Conclusions 2 Create Accurate Type Wells
3 Why is this Important? The advent of unconventional resources has radically changed the gas and oil supply landscape in North America. Investment decisions with respect to development of unconventional resources depend to a great extent on the ability to accurately forecast future recovery. Analog or type wells forecasts are used extensively, especially during a well s early production period. 3 Create Accurate Type Wells
4 What are Type Wells? Pseudo-well meant to represent many wells Created by averaging the rate from many wells Used to determine rate based on analogous wells Benchmark to guide forecasts for similar wells 4 Create Accurate Type Wells
5 Industry Standard Practice The Industry Standard Practice (ISP) is to average the production rate from contributing wells. Informal process that has become a standard. Relies on production history. Rarely includes individual well forecasts. 5 Create Accurate Type Wells
6 Issue Industry Standard Practice is defective Type wells rarely use forecasts Using combined historical production with reliable production forecasts remedies the defect Unreliable forecasts are better than no forecasts 6 Create Accurate Type Wells
7 Theory Forecasts are implicit to the ISP method. Implicit forecasts are usually inaccurate. Type well quality is compromised. Better forecasts yield better type wells. 7 Create Accurate Type Wells
8 Theory Depleted wells must be counted. 8 Create Accurate Type Wells
9 Synthetic Wells 199 synthetic exponential forecasts. IP & EUR log normal. Random variation +/- 30%. Answer is known. 5 year drill cycle. Type wells created after 10 years. 9 Create Accurate Type Wells
10 Wells Drilled in Random Order ISP matches the known answer. 10 Create Accurate Type Wells
11 Wells Drilled in Random Order ISP matches the known answer. 11 Create Accurate Type Wells
12 Sequence Bias Gaps are not filled with representative rates Profit Optimization o Best wells drilled first o Type wells are optimistic o Implicit forecasts for the newer wells created from older, better wells Technical Play Wells improve as technology develops Type wells are pessimistic Implicit forecasts for the newer wells created from older, poorer wells 12 Create Accurate Type Wells
13 Best Wells Drilled First Best wells drilled first: ISP fails. Type well changes to an incline. 13 Create Accurate Type Wells
14 Best Wells Drilled First Best wells are drilled first: ISP fails. Type well changes to an incline. 14 Create Accurate Type Wells
15 Best Wells Drilled First 15 Create Accurate Type Wells
16 Oil Rate, bbl/d Oil Rate, bbl/d Winter Field Winter Saskatchewan Field - Cummings Oil Production 26 Depleted Horizontal Wells Drilled from 1988 to History 70% cutoff History 50% cutoff History & Forecast Known Answer History 50% cutoff History 70% cutoff History & Forecast Known Answer Data to Dec 1994 Data to Dec Cumulative Oil, mbbl Cumulative Oil, mbbl History & Results in a better type well. Forecast Makes Better use of available data. Does not require a perfect forecast. 16 Create Accurate Type Wells
17 Rate, mcf/d Hugoton Field Standard Practice has large EUR error Type Well is near perfect when forecast is included Hugoton Field, Kansas - Gas Production to August Wells Drilled from 1987 to Field is Nearly Depleted History - 75% Cut Off History - 50% Cut Off History - 25% Cut Off History & Forecast Aug 2011 Forecast EUR mmcf Aug 2011 Forecast 1466 Error % 10 Years of History History & Forecast % History - 75% % History - 50% % History - 25% % 17 Create Accurate Type Wells Calendar Time, years
18 Hugoton Statistics 18 Create Accurate Type Wells
19 Hugoton Time Slice 19 Create Accurate Type Wells
20 Hugoton P75 Wells 20 Create Accurate Type Wells
21 Rate, mcf/d Wild River Apparent Sequence Bias Standard Practice gives no guidance for cut off Wild River Alberta Field - Cardium / 2WS Gas Production 84 Wells Drilled from 2000 to 2010 History & Forecast History - Best Fit History - 25% Cut Off Data is reliable, forecast good 1000 Double EUR without forecast Calendar Time, years 21 Create Accurate Type Wells
22 Rate, bbl/d Wolfcamp Pool Apparent Sequence Bias Standard Practice gives no guidance for cut off Wolfcamp Pool in New Mexico & Texas 102 Wells With 1st Production from Feb 2000 to Nov 2011 History and Forecast History to 50% Cut Off History - Best Fit Auto forecast for all wells 10 40% greater EUR without forecast Year 22 Create Accurate Type Wells
23 Creating Valid Groups Requires statistically valid and significantly similar wells. Many factors need to be considered for grouping. Vintage. Fracture size and fracture fluid type. Completion technique. Well location and spacing. Operator. And many others Vintage should always be one of the groups 23 Create Accurate Type Wells
24 Use Of Cross Plots Valid groups have log normal distribution Initial Production Expected Ultimate Recovery Use cross plots to validate groups r 2 is for statisticians visually find and remove wells that don t fit Create type wells from valid groups. 24 Create Accurate Type Wells
25 HOW DO YOU FORECAST? Resource plays are statistical Need to forecast 1000 s of wells accurately. Manual forecasts are not practical too time consuming and subjective. Not so easy, especially in unconventional plays with lots of superhyperbolic s. Require accurate auto-forecasting! 25 Create Accurate Type Wells
26 Auto-forecasting Easy! 26 Create Accurate Type Wells
27 Auto-forecasting Not so Easy! 27 Create Accurate Type Wells
28 Conclusion ISP type wells Forecasts are implicitly created for Gap Wells are defective Implicit forecasts are usually inaccurate Often no guidance when to stop averaging Sequence bias may be too subtle to detect Sequence bias impairs quality too high or too low Only use when drilling sequence completely random Combine history & Accurate Quality improves with forecast forecast to create type wells Flexible Use some or all of data to build type well More Data Extends useful period of historical data Use the right tools Statistics to validate grouping and well selection Reliable auto fitting Forecast recent wells using type wells, then update the type well 28 Create Accurate Type Wells
29 Conclusion Forecasts are inevitable The best forecast will include the benefit of knowledge and experience, not serendipity. 29 Create Accurate Type Wells
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