Mire & Associates, Inc.

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1 Mire & Associates, Inc Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 1

2 2014 Drilling Locator Map Divide Burke Williams Mountrail Richland McKenzie Dunn Billings 2014 Wells 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 2

3 Activity continues to increase through 2014 Mire & Associates has analyzed the available data for the Bakken/Three Forks oil shale play for Our goal has been to answer the questions, what is the current well performance & how is it changing each year?, who is drilling the best wells? Drilling activity has continued to be strong despite lower prices toward the end of There were 3,085 wells spudded to target the Bakken & Three Forks in See the activity trend. Activity Trend Three Forks Completions Spuds Bakken Completions ,022 1,396 1,254 1, /15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 3

4 Thousands Bakken Play Production Trend 10,000 9, Oil MBO 8, Gas MMCF Water MBW Average Well Count Oil up 26%, gas up 35% over Well count up 29% 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Average Well Count 100 2, , Oil MBO 42,827 63,127 97, , , , ,981 Gas MMCF 32,621 49,492 78, , , , ,365 Water MBW 8,910 14,174 34,911 68, , , ,667 Average Well Count 1,239 1,751 2,386 3,414 5,158 7,182 9,284 Dec 2014 Active wells 10,184, average well rates 116 BOPD, 141 MCFD, 91 BWPD 0 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 4

5 Initial Production & Reserves per Well 600 Total Play Performance vs Time Oil IP30 (BOPD) OiI EUR (MBO) EUR - MBOE(6) /15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 5

6 Bakken Shale Play 6 year performance data* * Based on production type curves 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 6

7 Oil IP30 (BOPD) Initial Production Rates over Time 600 Total Play Bakken Three Forks Rates continue to slowly improve /15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 7

8 Where are the best wells? We also looked at where the best rates and reserves were being achieved and found that based on 2014 average oil IP 30, EUR, and total 2014 oil production, the best counties were McKenzie, Mountrail & Dunn. Mountrail County had the highest reserves per well Total Oil (MMBO) from wells coming online in 2014 Dunn, 18,726 Divide, 4,012 Williams, 16,780 McKenzie, 51,730 McKenzie County had the best initial oil rates and most production in IP30 (BOPD) Mountrail, 23, Oil EUR (MBO)/well Williams 480 McKenzie 640 Williams 379 McKenzie 411 Stark 541 Dunn 602 Stark 390 Dunn 466 Mountrail 550 Mountrail 470 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 8

9 2014 Activity & Well Performance by County* Completion Reservoir Average Well Performance County Bakken Sanish Three Forks TF/Bk Total Oil BOPD MCFD EUR Oil EUR Gas MBOE(6) McKenzie Mountrail Williams Dunn Divide Richland Burke Stark Billings Roosevelt * Mclean county excluded due to low well counts As in 2013, Mckenzie county had the most wells completed in /15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 9

10 Best Operators 1,200 1, We have analyzed production data for over two thousand (2,200) wells which came on line in 2014 and find that the best operators are drilling wells with IP 30 rates* of BOPD and with EURs of MBO. The overall average well in the play had an IP 30 of 567 BOPD and an EUR of 405 MBO in Well results for the most active operators are shown below. Continental was the most active driller but WPX had the highest reserves per well. *IP 30 rates were estimated from reported days produced & monthly production Oil IP30 Gas IP30 EUR Oil Well Count Well Count /15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 10

11 2014 Activity & Well Performance by Operator* * Top 25 operators based on wells drilled in 2014, (41 operators were active in the play during 2014) 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 11

12 2014 Top 10 Operators by Initial Oil Rate 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 12

13 Bbl/Mcf Millions Top 20 Operators Total Production Bakken & Three Forks Zones (from wells coming online in 2014) Oil Gas Water 15 Whiting had the most production in /15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 13

14 What are the best wells for 2014 according to IP 30? Note that most of these wells were in McKenzie county. 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 14

15 What are the best wells for 2014 according to oil EUR? Note that Enerplus had 3 of the highest well reserves. 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 15

16 Initial Oil Rate (IP30) BOPD 2014 Bakken Shale Initial Oil Rate vs EUR 1,100 1, Operator Data County Data HRC Operating EOG Resources WPX Energy 800 McKenzie County 700 Zavanna, Abraxas Whiting Dunn County Oasis, Continental Divide County ,000 EUR (MBO) 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 16

17 Frac Stages Lateral Length and Proppant Thousands 2014 Average Completion Data The average completion used 32 frac stages and 4.1 million pounds of proppant, with a lateral length of over 9,740 feet (1.8 miles). EOG and Enerplus use the most proppant, while Fidelity has more frac stages Frac Stages Lateral Length (ft) Proppant M Lbs * For operators with 10 or more completions in /15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 17

18 Millions of gallons 2014 Fracturing Fluids EOG used the most fracturing fluids per well Unspecified Fluids GEL SlickWater X-LINKGEL Total /15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 18

19 Multi-Lateral Completion Trend Several of the operators identified as having the best results sometimes fracture two or more laterals simultaneously. Using completion information for over 16,000 Bakken Shale Play wells, we have data for nearly 1,260 completions since 2005 which had multiple laterals fractured at the same time. 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 19

20 Average Well Economics 2014 Type Curve with 2015 product prices & 2015 well costs Economic Assumptions Leasehold: $320,000 Drill & Complete: $7,700,000 Facilities: $50,000 NRI: 80% Operating Expense: $15,000 / month 1st 3 months $7,500 / month until ECL Prices: August 2015 NYMEX strip Oil Differential: -$6.00 Gas Differential: -$0.40 Gas Shrinkage: 25% NGL Differential: -25% NGL Yield: 50 BBL/MMCF IRR: 26.7%, Payout: 2.7 years, NPV(10): 4,159 $M Oil EUR: 405 MBO GAS EUR: 505 MMCF EUR Oil: 447MBO EUR Gas: 489MMCF Type Curve Parameters Oil% 87.9 Initial Decline Gas% 87.8 Oil 1.15 Hyperbolic Factor Gas 1.0 Oil 5 Minimum Decline Gas 6 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 20

21 2014 Conclusions Continental Resources was the most active operator (300 production starts) Whiting added the most production in 2014 (16 Million barrels from new wells) Of the more active operators WPX had the highest production rates. Enerplus with only 12 new wells had outstanding results (1,333 BOPD IP 30 ) The best well results were from McKenzie County (IP BOPD) The average well IP 30 was 567 BOPD and average EUR was 405 MBO. Well costs for 2015 are about $8.1 million versus $8.8 in The Bakken play is still economic at current product prices and well costs. 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 21

22 Engineering terms BOPD is barrels of oil per day MBO is thousands of barrels of oil MMCF is millions of cubic feet of natural gas MBW is thousands of barrels of water MBOE(6) is thousands of barrels of oil equivalent, where 6 MCF of natural gas adds 1 barrel of oil equivalent to the reserves. Proppant is sand or other material pumped into a well to fracture the rock and stimulate production. Lateral refers to the horizontal portion of the wellbore. IP 30 is the average oil rate over the first 30 days of production. EUR is the estimated ultimate recovery (per well), based on decline analysis. 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 22

23 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 23

24 8/15/ Bakken Shale Activity & Performance Review 24

25 Engineering Consultant Peter Morgan Petroleum Engineer Summary Mr. Morgan is a junior petroleum engineer with two (2) years of experience in E&P. He has worked borehole seismic projects in Egypt, shale fracturing jobs in Pennsylvania and drilling operations in west Texas. He is skilled in data analysis, royalty database creation and cash-flow projections. Peter is fluent in Arabic and English. Experience 2 years Mire & Associates, Inc., Houston 2015 present Halliburton, Midland Halliburton, Pittsburg 2014 Schlumberger, Cairo Egypt 2013 Education B.S., Petroleum Engineering The American University in Cairo, 2012

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